I'm holding off on an overall analysis of the Santana trade until I find out more about the players involved and until Johan Santana actually puts on a Mets cap. But that means I'm busy finding out more about the players involved.

Speed

Carlos Gomez is the lone position player that the Twins are receiving in the trade. The first thing everyone talks about is his speed. He's supposed to be really, really fast. I don't have stopwatch times on him (it would be really cool if there was an online database of split times for baserunners), but we do have his stolen base and caught stealing numbers, which might be even better than stopwatch times. As I see it, I'm more interested in how a player can actually apply his speed than whether or not he can run a good 30- or 40-yard dash. I also have SB/CS numbers for Fernando Martinez, so let's compare the two.

Gomez:
17 SB, 2 CS, 57 G -- Age 18
64 SB, 24 CS, 120 G -- Age 19
41 SB, 9 CS, 120 G -- Age 20
19 SB, 4 CS, 41 G -- Age 21 (minors)
12 SB, 3 CS, 58 G -- Age 21 (majors)

Martinez:
8 SB, 5 CS, 76 G -- Age 17
3 SB, 4 CS, 63 G -- Age 18

From those numbers, I think it's fair to say that Gomez is either a lot faster than Martinez, or he's much better at applying his speed through good instincts on the bases.

When Baseball America did their Mets' Top 10 Prospects ranking this year, they ranked Gomez as the fastest baserunner in the system and also the best athlete. So Gomez seems to have a pretty tidy edge on Martinez in speed.

Average

The next thing you hear about Gomez is that he's a 5-tool player. Batting average is one of the vaunted 5 tools, but I think that it's a rather iffy tool for either of these two.

Carlos Gomez batting average by age:
.281 -- Age 18
.275 -- Age 19
.281 -- Age 20
.275 -- Age 21 (minors)
.232 -- Age 21 (majors)

Fernando Martinez batting average by age:
.279 -- Age 17
.265 -- Age 18

Now, both have been either young or ridiculously young for their level, but they have yet to actually hit for a high average. Beyond that, they have both struggled to make contact with the ball.

For the sake of comparison, let's check out hitters who had a .300+ batting average last year. (Plus Morneau and Mauer because they hit over .300 last year and we're familiar with them.) We'll take a look at their strikeout rate in the minors (strikeouts per plate appearance), their minor league batting average, and their major league batting average. I will sort them into four groups based on whether or not they hit for average in the minors and whether or not they hit for average in the majors.

Now here is a quick summary table:

From the summary table, we see the strikeout rates fall exactly as I might expect them to fall. The guys who strike out the least of that group wind up hitting for average everywhere. In the two middle groups, if you didn't know their strikeout rates, you might expect the guys who hit for average in the minors to hit for a better average in the majors, but that was not the case. The strikeout rate turns out to be an important tool for differentiating the two groups on the borderline. That the group with mediocre career averages in the majors and minors exists is a testament to fluctuations around the mean. If you're a .270-.285 hitter, every now and then you'll hit over .300, you just aren't doing it consistently.

Looking at Gomez and Martinez's strikeout rates, they seem to fall most closely in the "doesn't hit for average in the majors or minors" group, but they do have a lower strikeout rate than a couple of the guys in the group that improved from the minors to the majors. Specifically, the four guys closest in profile seem to be Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, and David Wright. Let's look at what all of those guys hit in the minors.

.278/.336/.399 -- Gomez
.273/.334/.421 -- Martinez
.286/.346/.431 -- Cabrera
.275/.348/.424 -- Holliday
.282/.345/.465 -- Utley
.288/.383/.474 -- Wright

Gomez and Martinez are behind those guys (especially Utley and Wright in the power department, and Wright trumps everyone with his walk rate), but it's not a huge difference. I don't mean to give you the impression that either of those two are likely to turn out to be Cabrera, Holliday, Utley, or Wright (who have all already been mentioned in MVP discussions), but looking at their numbers, I don't think we can rule it out, either.

Power

Neither Gomez or Martinez has hit for impressive power yet, but that tends to be the last tool to develop (as you can see with Cabrera and Holliday, for instance.) Gomez is 6'2" which gives him the sort of frame that could fill out to develop power. One comparison I haven't seen thrown around much here is Torii Hunter. Hunter hit .269/.322/.416 in the minors with a .182 SO% while being pushed through the system because he was a good defender. He went on to develop some power and has hit .271/.324/.469 in the majors. Without doing a much more comprehensive analysis (basically, doing what PECOTA does) I can't really tell you how likely it is that Martinez or Gomez will develop that power, but it does seem to be in the cards.

Defense

Baseball America ranks Gomez as the best defensive outfielder in the Mets' system and the prospect with the best arm in the Mets' system. Looking at their 2011 projected lineup for the Mets, I was at first startled. Gomez was in CF, pushing Beltran to RF and Lastings Milledge to LF. Wither Martinez? At first base! Gomez, Beltran, and Milledge can all (to varying degrees) credibly play CF, so that doesn't necessarily mean Martinez needs to move out of the outfield, but it does seem that Gomez has a clear edge in defensive value over Martinez. By all accounts, Gomez' glove can play in CF, whereas Martinez may eventually need to move to a corner. That makes a pretty big difference in their relative values, and it's one thing that I think pushes Gomez closer to a Hunter comparison.

Overall

Putting the whole package together, here's how I see it. I feel comfortable giving Gomez a sort of median projection around +10 runs (above average) on defense in CF, and +5 runs on the bases. I also think that Gomez should be able to hit at least replacement level in CF. (He has a stronger track record than Rivas, another guy who was pushed through the minors, and even Rivas was able to hit replacement level.) Probably through his prime it is even reasonable to project him at 5-15 runs above replacement level at the plate. That would make him a 2-3 wins per year player, which would put him in line with a late first-round draft pick.

I feel like I have a harder time with Martinez. One thing I haven't mentioned is that he's had some difficulty staying healthy, but just like everything else with him, the small sample caveat applies. Combining the scouting I've read with the numbers, and reading a little between the lines, I'd guess that he'll hit more than Gomez but also have less defensive value. At least while he's young, I'd guess maybe a -5 in CF or +5 in a corner on defense, no real baserunning value, and 15-25 runs above replacement as a CF or 5-15 runs above replacement from a corner. Altogether, that would also make him a 2-3 wins per year player.

Why does BA rank Martinez ahead of Gomez? I'd guess it's because they think he has a higher ceiling at the plate. Defense is important, but an elite bat beats an elite glove. It seems that Martinez has a longer way to go to realize that Miguel Cabrera sort of ceiling than Gomez has to go to be a +15 or +20 defender in CF.

I'm not all that disappointed that we wound up with Gomez instead of Martinez. Gomez has a lower ceiling but it's still a good ceiling and he is closer to realizing that ceiling, so it's mostly a wash for me. As for Ellsbury and Cabrera, well, I've rambled on enough for one post.

Carlos Gomez is someone who I can reasonable hope to develop into a solid contributor, the way that Torii Hunter was a solid contributor for this team. It would be easier to cheer for him if he had a catchy nickname, though.

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