Not unexpectedly, the Twins decided to get a veteran hurler to ingest innings.
Disturbing trend #1:
4.18 xFIP -- 2004
4.56 xFIP -- 2005
5.38 xFIP -- 2006
5.62 xFIP -- 2007
Which is mainly driven by disturbing trend #2:
6.8 K/G -- 2004
5.3 K/G -- 2005
5.2 K/G -- 2006
3.8 K/G -- 2007
He used to be a groundball pitcher, but his GB% was below average--around 38%--last year. PECOTA has him projected for a 5.43 EqERA, and ZiPS has him projected for a 5.55 ERA. Twins pitchers that ZiPS projects to have a better ERA this season and at least 20 starts: Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Kevin Mulvey, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship, Boof Bonser, Oswaldo Sosa, and Brian Duensing. (I won't include Deolis Guerra since he's clearly not pitching for the Twins this year.)
Twins pitchers who are out of options: Baker, Bonser, Humber. Twins pitchers who have no business (talent-wise) in Rochester: Liriano, Slowey. If I had to guess right now, I'd say that Humber is probably moving to the 'pen, and the rotation will be Baker, Bonser, Liriano, Slowey, and Hernandez. That would potentially leave Perkins, Blackburn, Duensing, Mulvey, and Day in Rochester. But that's a guess.
My favorite Livan Hernandez fun fact? His weighted mean PECOTA has him pitching 134 innings this season. What does that mean? That means that in the past, pitchers with his recent track record, as a group weren't exactly iron horses. And if I had to guess, probably a lot of those guys lost innings because they couldn't pitch well enough to stay in the rotation. If the over/under on Livan Hernandez 2007 starts is 30, I'm taking the under in a heartbeat.
The Twins probably could've gotten Mike Maroth or Jeff Weaver on an NRI or a smaller contract and spent the difference getting the next Deolis Guerra without having to trade their #1 starter to get him, but whatever, I guess. In my view, Livan Hernandez is a security blanket. Much like Corky Miller or Chris Heintz, he provides protection against a problem that isn't actually much of a problem. If the Twins had a rash of injuries in the rotation and really weren't prepared to promote someone from within, they trade a PTBNL for the next Joel Pineiro or Mike Maroth, or they pick up someone like Sidney Ponson off the street. But I think they have plenty of pitchers already on hand to deal with such problems.
If nothing else, this helps cement the Twins' outlook as a ~73-win team that could be .500 or a bit above if they get lucky, but won't really matter when Labor Day rolls around. A one-year contract for $5M or $6M isn't going to cripple the franchise or really change their chances of making the playoffs this year, but I'd rather see them do something creative.
Another lateral move in an off-season of lateral moves. Excuse me while I try to contain my enthusiasm.
Keith Law rated Livan Hernandez the 30th best free agent at the beginning of the off-season:
WTF???
U, I think you're correct in that $5-6 million spent on international free agents/prospects is better. But I kind of like the fat horse. Also, kudos to anyone who can get off that island, even though his half brother had it tougher, being banned from Cuban baseball because Livan defected first. I won't mind seeing him in a Twins uniform for a year.
I will say that I have a certain fascination for Livan. He's one of those guys that everyone claims can throw a lot of innings by taking it easy in spots and turning it up in others. I tend to be suspicious of such claims, but as SBG notes elsewhere, Livan has really racked up the PAP and survived so far. (Though his performance has been suffering of late.)
But it's the sort of fasicination I might have with watching someone win a lot of money gambling. Maybe they have a system that can beat the casinos, but I'd rather not give them my money to gamble with.
I'd like to see Livan do well, I just don't think it's very likely.
Speaking of defection, we read "Pitching Around Fidel" in class 2 years ago (Holy crap, 2 bertin' years ago!). It's about the Cuban sports system. I may have to get something up in the Library.
uh, yes, you may!
I know his peripheral trends aren't very good, but the guy has managed to post roughly #3 starter ERA+ figures the last few years, while racking up #2 or #1 starter innings based on this study.
I'm not a BP subscriber, so I don't have access to PECOTA, but every other projection system I've seen forecasts a recovery in his K/9 rate:
Bill James: 5.45 K/9, 4.69 FIP
CHONE: 4.45 K/9, 5.27 FIP
Marcel: 4.99 K/9, 5.08 FIP
ZiPS: 5.30 K/9
If he gets his K rate up closer to pre-2007 levels, I think he tops 134 innings quite easily.
As for your in-season alternatives, I know you advocate finding the "next" Maroth, Ponson, or Pineiro if needed, but Livan's FIP projections above are quite a bit better better than Maroth's and Ponson's 2007 FIP numbers (~6.70 and 6.09, respectively), and Joel Pineiro's 2007 salary was $4 million, and he was making the conversion from reliever. None of them look appreciably better or cheaper than this deal for Livan.
Personally, I don't expect much from Livan, but assuming he's not completely toast, 1 year $5 million is a fair contract for him, and one which the 2008 Twins can easily afford. Plus, in August 2006 he brought back Matt Chico plus another minor-leaguer in a trade, and he wasn't even pitching well at the time (although he was still under contract through 2007).
One more thought: if Livan can manage another decent season with a reasonable number of total innings, he could be a Type B free agent again next winter. He actually wasn't far from Type A this year by Elias' system (his score was similar to that of Gil Meche). Assuming he got another major-league contract next winter, this would net us a sandwich pick in 2009. [Insert joke about Livan's weight and "sandwich pick" here]
Mmmm. Cubanos.
My consistent P.R. staple is a lechoneria stand about an hour south of San Juan - get off the highway on the first Cahey exit (head towards Guavate). About a 1/4 mile east of the exit are several lechonarias. I forget the name, but it's the last one heading East.
The pig has been marinated/cooked for a long time, and is ready on the weekend/Sat AM. You go up to the window and ask for lechon (or pernil) and some plantain, root vegs, and a Medalla.
The guy walks over to the spit and hefts his machete, cutting off the lechon, and forks it onto your plate. What could be better?
Can these be Fed-Ex-ed?
*ignore the drool*
cuban sammiches are, of course, makeable at home. I use two cast-iron pans heated to scorchin' in the oven. Put assembled sammich in one, press down with the other. (you might wanna use the heavy-duty oven mitts for the pressing down part)
still, NBB is killin' me too.
put yer pig...in a box!
my buddy La musique de l'homme and I have been scheming for years to acquire one of those boxes.
btw, thanks for the link to that blog. Yumm.
With our luck, put some mayo on the pick and eat it.
Olive-loaf takes on a new meaning.
Cuba Libre!
er, Oliva sumpin-sumpin'
Anyone else ever hit up Victor's 1959 Havana Cafe on Grand in Minneapolis? As much as I dislike economic collectivism and the cult of Che, they make some excellent food (and the dining area is divided into Left and Right, so I can always go sit under some Catholic decorations though I'm lax even by Swedish Lutheran standards).
They have some good breakfast fare and the pork sandwiches we all love.
In all seriousness, Kyle, what economic view-point do you subscribe to? Above you "dislike economic collectivism" and in yesterday's CoC you said "Lincoln wanted to tax the South to pay for all his crony-mercantilist government projects in the North." So you don't like collectivism, but you also don't like capitalism, which in it's essence is entirely cut-throat and self-serving. What sort of middle-ground economic system would you find most appealing?
Victor's is stellar.
I'm big into Hayek and Taleb I guess, favoring a market economy from a cognitive/epistemology perspective, in that humans assume they know too much and central or top down planning is generally a poor idea. Mercantilism is a quasi-market economy where the government protects, aids and subsidizes chosen firms and industries, but those are still top down decisions and just as self interested as any made on the market.
That looks interesting. I'll have to read more into that. I must admit, I know slightly more than jack squat about economics.
I have Black Swan on my reading list.
Kyle - Are you a "Wisdom of Crowds" guy?
David Hume along those lines as well.
Ah, I guess a little. I don't think the aggregate of the crowd always knows best.
But if individuals are stupid AND the crowd is stupid, who is smart?
Some individuals, some of the time? So best to organize ourselves in a decentralized manner?
But, I completed 5/8ths of an English degree before transferring to study sound engineering, so what do I know?
But if individuals are stupid AND the crowd is stupid, who is smart?
The king, of course.
I wouldn't have pegged you for a constitutional monarchist.
I'm not, I forgot that we were living in a post-snark world.
I'll put a
at the end next time.
Mercantilism is a quasi-market economy where the government protects, aids and subsidizes chosen firms and industries
I'm not sure I would characterize Lincoln's (or, more properly, the Radical Republicans') economic policies as "mercantilistic", however. The war year tariff and monetary policies were about paying for the war, for the most part.
I'd say the Republican protectionist tariff policies, particularly of the post-bellum era, had much more in common with import-substitution industrialization. Which puts them on common ground with Hamilton's Report on Manufactures approach.
that is not to deny the easy move from ISI to more expressly redistributive trade policies.
the passages about Hamilton and the Gold Standard in the Wikipedia article on mercantilism amused me. Hamilton's genius was in establishing the good credit of the United States in international financial markets by (1) assuming the states' war debts for the national government; (2) establishing a sinking fund to pay off those debts (and, in fact, retiring the debts early); (3) establishing a tariff regime to provide the revenue to fund the sinking fund (and the rest of the national government); (4) establishment of a National Bank, which played a tremendous role in the development of a national capital market.
I'll throw my hat in with Jefferson and say Hamilton's bank was undemocratic and a tool of the northeastern banking establishment.
None of them look appreciably better or cheaper than this deal for Livan.
The Royals got Maroth at the outrageous cost of an NRI. I'd say that's cheaper.
1 year $5 million is a fair contract for him, and one which the 2008 Twins can easily afford.
Hence a lateral move. The Twins aren't going to get better by handing out fair contracts to over-the-hill pitchers with ERA's that aren't supported by their peripherals. Like I said, this isn't going to cripple the organization, but at best Livan goes out to pitch once every five days and I know which games to skip. I'm not going to bother bending over backwards to congratulate Uncle Bill on his brilliant plan.
Plus, in August 2006 he brought back Matt Chico plus another minor-leaguer in a trade, and he wasn't even pitching well at the time (although he was still under contract through 2007).
If the Twins were acquiring Matt Chico, maybe I'd be enthused (though his 5.75 xFIP last year suggests a fair bit of regression in his future.) If the Twins are able to sign a replacement level player and flip him for something more than replacement level, then the subsequent trade would be a good move. Until then, we might as well hope for the Twins to trade Nick Punto for something valuable.
Now with Livan on hand, I just can't wait for Jose Morales to make the roster out of spring training. Two security blankets at once! Think how warm we will be!
Well, on the semi-bright side, there has been more to talk about this off season than the last two, combined, and then some. I think Livan > Sidney, so hey, there's that. Plus, we did get a nice player in Delmon (don't look at what we gave up).
I think we knew this off-season was coming. The Twins could not hand Santana $152 million and Hunter $90 million. That would have been craziness, especially the latter. The 2008 team will be a lot different. Better? Probably not, but different.
He was solidly in the Class "B" range last year, so he may be able to return either a sandwich pick or a similar prospect in a mid-season trade. Coupling that with the possible added benefit of leaving a prospect in the minors for a half of a season to slow service time, I'm not too caught up on the pick. If the Twins end up spending $5 million to gain an additional sandwich pick and save a year of serfdom for a prospect, well, that's not the worst thing in the world for a longer-term plan.
Of course, this is all predicated on the follow-up transactions occurring.
Of course, this is all predicated on the follow-up transactions occurring.
It's also predicated on Livan pitching well enough to maintain his class B status, which is certainly not a guarantee if he is continues to decline while he has to start facing David Ortiz instead of Al Leiter.
Not a guarantee, but it's not out of the realm of possibility either. Elias' formula seems to reward quantity at least as much as quality, and as long as his arm doesn't fall off, Livan should be able to approximate the "quantity" part of the equation. (And I assume the Twins at least kicked the tires on the ol' boy to be reasonably sure his arm won't fall off for a couple months...)
Elias' formula seems to reward quantity at least as much as quality, and as long as his arm doesn't fall off, Livan should be able to approximate the "quantity" part of the equation.
Livan is perilously close to being so bad that his badness will keep him from pitching very many innings. Add concerns about performance to concerns about past worklands to concerns about age and I don't think you get a very large chance that he even gives you quantity.
I feel like this is the same thing I went through with Ortiz last year. Ortiz did one thing well--his walk rate was okay. But everything else pretty much sucked, he was a flyball pitcher coming from the NL to the AL, and guess what? He wasn't able to pitch well enough to stay in the rotation. With better luck, sure, he could've gotten by on smoke and mirrors for a little bit longer, but I can hope that anyone will improve. I can say, sure Jeff Weaver had some problems last year, but if this, that, and the other thing happen, I'm sure he can solve our innings problem.
Arguably, we're getting a pitcher in Livan Hernandez who is even worse than what we got last year with Ramon Ortiz (or Ponson for that matter.) This doesn't exactly motivate me to shell out more money for mlb.tv this year.
It's tricky, because on paper, Livan should already be cooked, as you've shown. But somehow, not only did he avoid the terrible fates of Maroth, Weaver, Ponson, (to a lesser extent Ortiz), etc., he turned in another full season of average starting pitching in 2007. The dude somehow managed 19 quality starts last year.
Maybe he's way overdue to crash hard, but perhaps he has more "smoke and mirrors" at his disposal than others? It seems like you're leaning toward the former, and the Twins are taking a chance on the latter, at least as a factor slowing his demise. I don't think it's an unreasonable risk at this point, given the payroll situation and the massive inexperience among our starting staff. Whichever way he goes, I think it should be more interesting than watching Ortiz & Ponson, both of whom pretty much performed exactly as they could have been expected to perform. The expectations for Livan are still all over the map.
Also interesting: Josh Fogg, whose two year stretch of 2006-2007 was as good as any other in his career, just missed the Type B cut-off in the Elias rankings. (And Livan was actually closer to a Type A score than he was to Fogg's!)
The Royals got Maroth at the outrageous cost of an NRI. I'd say that's cheaper.
Sorry, I meant "better and/or cheaper." I'm sure there are pitchers even cheaper than Maroth (present company included!), but I'd hate to see how poorly they'd perform.
I'm not going to bother bending over backwards to congratulate Uncle Bill on his brilliant plan.
Maybe I missed something, but who's doing this?
Until then, we might as well hope for the Twins to trade Nick Punto for something valuable.
Nick Punto isn't nearly as likely to be a Type B free agent with enough playing time. Even if Livan is scuffling at the deadline, the possibility of a sandwich pick could be enough to draw some trade interest. Again, this isn't remotely meant to justify the deal, but it is a reasonable potential benefit.
Dan Szymborski is apparently not a big fan of Livan.
He looks like he needs to shed some Boof pounds.
The Minnesota Twins are now proud owners of their very own Antoine Walker. Maybe he can do a shimmy or two after his one or two strikeouts.
When Garza is outperforming Livan and Bartlett is outperforming our non-Morneau infielders, the shimmy will make us forget the bad things.
Pat Borzi at MinnPost puts one and one together
Livan, Livan likes his money.
He makes a lot they say.
Spend his days counting
In a garage by the motorway.
(And he shall be Livan,
And he shall be a good man...)
But see me once and see the way I feel
Don't discard me just because you think I mean you harm
But these cuts I have they need love to help them heal
Like a corn in a field I cut you down
I threw the last punch too hard
After years of going steady, well I thought that it was time
To throw in my hand for a new set of cards
Liked that Rock o' th' Westies.
Belated howdy, sir.
Any flatirons or foshays lately?
I've got a couple new things on the easel. I'll link when I feel comfortable.
(thanx fer askin')
Favorite anagram for Livan Hernandez:
Hazel Van Dinner