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The Case For a Punto/Harris Defense/Offense Platoon

Posted by ubelmann on Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 at 12:50 am

My organization here is a bit funny. I wanted to start by explaining how I get Harris as 20 runs better than Punto on offense over 150 games, and how I get Punto as 20 runs better than Harris on defense over 150 games, but it turned out to be perhaps the most unreadable stuff I've ever written. If you find either of these claims contentious, I left my justifications at the bottom.

Harris is basically Bizarro Punto. If you don't do anything creative with them, they have essentially equal value. Harris will make you feel better at the plate, and Punto will make you feel better in the field.

I would propose using Punto and Harris in a defense/offense alignment. Start Punto on defense. On average, the #7 spot in the lineup is going to come up in the 2nd inning, 4th inning, 6th inning, and 8th inning. If you take Punto out whenever his spot comes up after the 6th inning, or if there is a crucial pinch-hitting situation around the 6th inning, say he gets 6 innings of defense on average and Harris gets about 1.5 PA/G. That way Punto gets roughly 67% of the playing time on defense and Harris gets about 35% of the playing time on offense. If that happened, it would be roughly a breakeven strategy from a run differential standpoint. You'd have something like:

-1.7 R/150G -- Defense, 67% Punto
67.1 R/150G -- Offense, 35% Harris

Which from a run differential standpoint is about what you would get if you just ran Punto or Harris out there for an entire game. So, that seems like a lot of work for not much benefit, I suppose.

The main reason I like this strategy is leverage, though, especially with Everett and a banjo-hitting CF also in the lineup. If it's late in the game and the Twins are clinging to a small lead, then by all means keep the good defenders on the field. If the Twins are down by one run, though, Gardy can put Harris in the game either to try to generate baserunners or to drive in baserunners. And say the Twins carry Buscher as the 25th man. If it's the 8th inning and Punto, Lamb, Everett is due up, we can make that Buscher, Lamb, Harris. Will the defense in the 9th inning be ugly? Sure, but you're going to lose anyway if you don't score any runs and the bullpen generally misses more bats than the starting pitchers, so they don't rely as much on the defense.

If it's the 6th inning and Kubel, Punto, and Lamb have loaded the bases with two outs, and you're down by a couple of runs, you have the chance to pinch-hit Buscher, Harris, or Monroe for Everett. If you decide to hit Punto 8th, then you could wind up in a situation where you are down by one run in the 7th or 8th inning and Punto, Everett, and Pridie are due up with Harris, Buscher, and Monroe on the bench. It wouldn't exactly be Murderer's Row, but teams go to so much trouble to leverage their pitchers properly, I don't see why we shouldn't try to leverage the hitters a bit, too.

I'd still try to get some starts for Harris against LHP, especially with our fly ball pitchers on the mound. The mixing and matching could even go beyond just Punto and Harris. With a groundball guy like Liriano, I'd want Punto on the field, but if the Twins were facing a tough LHP, that would be a good opportunity to give Lamb a day off, since the other team is probably going to send a lot of right-handed hitters up to bat, who are more likely to hit the ball to the left side of the infield.

There's a lot of concern in some areas about how many innings the non-Livans can handle, and having better defense at the beginning of the game can help them grind out more innings.

Basically, it's easier to see the opportunities on offense coming than it is to see the opportunities on defense coming, and there will in general be more opportunities on defense early in the game. So start the game with your best defensive squad and send in the subs as necessary. Embrace your inner Punto. You know you want to.

Offense

The 2008 PECOTA projections for the Twins are apparently more controversial than Sinnead O'Connor's SNL appearance, so for offensive projections, let's turn a moment to fangraphs, where they report the Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel projections. To be diplomatic, I'll throw out the highest and lowest by RC/27 and keep the median projection for Punto and Harris. This gives us:

48 RC, 517 PA -- Punto (CHONE)
65 RC, ~509 PA -- Harris (Bill James)

Say the team OBP is around .330. That gives us about 40.3 PA over 27 outs. Teams don't always get 27 outs in a game, but you adjust up for extra innings and down for home wins, so I'm going to leave it at 40.3 PA/G. That gives the #5 hitter about 4.48 PA/G. It can be shown that the Nth hitter gets about one-ninth of an at-bat more than the (N-1)st hitter, so the #7 hitter should be getting about 4.26 PA/G, or 639 PA over 150 games. So if we want to think in terms of a full season:

59.3 RC/150G -- Punto
81.6 RC/150G -- Harris

So Harris has about a 22-run edge on Punto offensively, which is significant.

Defense

UZR doesn't have Harris' time at second base in 2007, and his data is pretty small sample size, but oh what a sample. He's at -38 runs/150G at 2B, -33 runs/150G at 3B, and -22 runs/150G at SS. Our dearest Nicky is at +10 runs/150G at 2B, +13 runs/150G at 3B, and +14 runs/150G at SS.

Using PMR, as a team, the Devil Rays (it was 2007 after all) had the 3rd-worst defense at SS overall last year, and Harris had the third-worst rate amongst shortstops, ahead of only Derek Jeter and Cristian Guzman. A full season of PMR predicted outs at SS seems to be about 500, which would put Harris at about -37.8 plays per season or roughly -19 runs/season.

Punto didn't play enough 2B or SS in 2007 to get mention in the PMR tables. At 3B, he was slightly below average, with roughly -9.3 plays per season or roughly -5 runs per season. In 2006, he was about +9 plays per season or roughly +5 runs per season. In 2005, Punto did get enough playing time at second base to qualify for Pinto's list, and he was nearly off the freakin' charts. If a 2B gets about 450 predicted outs over the course of a full season, then Punto would've been at about +69.7 plays per season or roughly +35 runs per season, which would be positively Everett-esque if I didn't suspect it was a bit of a fluke.

In SFR, 600 balls seems to be roughly a full season at second base. That makes Punto roughly +6.7 runs and Harris roughly -20 runs over the course of a full season at second.

From 2004-7, Harris has a .813 RZR at 2B (only 92 balls in his zone), and Punto at an .832 RZR at 2B. A full season of RZR at 2B seems to be roughly 350 BIZ, so that's a difference of just 6.6 plays per season between Punto and Harris. (Though I would note that RZR doesn't take into account as many plays as UZR, PMR, or SFR, so this is going to tend to underestimate the difference between fielders relative to other systems.) Punto's RZR at SS has been .854 and Harris' RZR at SS last year was .777. A full season of BIZ for a SS seems to be about 400, so that'd make the difference between Punto and Harris about 31 plays in a season.

So, that's a lot of different numbers, but if you throw out the high and low scores from the Soviet judges, then I think that it's pretty reasonable to put Punto at around +5 runs per 150G at 2B and Harris at around -15 runs per 150G at 2B.

+5 R/150G -- Punto
-15 R/150G -- Harris

Which gives Punto a 20-run edge on defense.

Overall

So, honestly, overall I see little difference in total value between Harris and Punto if you're just blindly putting them in the lineup every day. It's kind of a matter of whether you want to win 3-2 games or 4-3 games.


This entry was posted by ubelmann on Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 at 12:50 am and is filed under Guest Writers, MLB, Minnesota Twins, ubelmann. It is one of 613 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post. Why?

26 LTEs

greenmachine
greenmachine replied on February 26th, 2008 at 1:32 am

are apparently more controversial than Sinnead O'Connor's SNL appearance, so for offensive projections

heh heh, offensive projections, I get it.

This stuff makes the situation a lot more interesting than how pretty much anybody else seems to be treating it. Interesting within the context of two players who may be grossly equivalent in different ways. Puts me in the mind of how freaking fun it would be to manage a baseball team.

ubelmann
ubelmann replied on February 26th, 2008 at 2:33 am

I think it's a fairly unique situation because most of the time someone like Harris would be moved to a corner and not really considered a middle infielder, but he's bounced around so much (probably his suspect defense was part of that) that teams have continued to try him there and he's still considered a middle infielder. Usually to get away with defense that rates that poorly, you really have to rake.

 
 
Moss
Moss replied on February 26th, 2008 at 7:18 am

How about just let Punto play the field until his spot comes up in the lineup, then lift him for a bat? Or maybe you let him bat one time, then lift him??

Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on February 26th, 2008 at 9:21 am

How about leave Punto off the 40-man roster, and hope someone else picks him up?

 
 
Whiffers
Whiffers replied on February 26th, 2008 at 9:44 am

I can't wait to hear how Dick-n-Bert describe Harris. Is he enough of a veteran to get kid gloves treatment, or is he young enough to get raked over the coals for his apparently awful D?

My assumption is that Harris was brought over to start at 2B this year. If he's used as a utility infielder, then it shows me how much they value Young's bat since he'll be the only everyday player returned in the deal.

And does Casilla slide back over to SS (Rochester) in an effort to get him ready to take over for Everett next year if Harris is the assumed 2B of the near future?

brianS
brianS replied on February 26th, 2008 at 11:47 am

Trevor Plouffe should be playing SS every day in Rochester this year, right? He certainly hasn't shown sufficient power to suggest he could be moved to 3b to clear the way for Casilla at SS.

 
frightwig
frightwig replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:37 pm

I can't wait to hear how Dick-n-Bert describe Harris. Is he enough of a veteran to get kid gloves treatment, or is he young enough to get raked over the coals for his apparently awful D?

There is usually a honeymoon period when a new player joins the team, which lasts at least until management starts to criticize the player in the press or give the nod in private. I'd guess D&B will be optimistic about Harris until Gardy starts playing Punto at 2B more and more often because, he lets everyone know, he doesn't feel comfortable with the new guy's glove at that spot. That could happen in April; or, if the club is determined to show a 'score' from the Bartlett trade and give Harris time to show progress (like the nearly indefinite patience they had for Rivas), it could be awhile.

 
 
twayn
twayn replied on February 26th, 2008 at 10:37 am

Platoon is just an Oliver Stone movie. And I'm not sure Gardy ever saw it.

ubelmann
ubelmann replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:42 pm

I know, I know, but there was that period in time where Gardy started Dustin Mohr in the field, keeping Bobby Kielty on the bench for some fairly memorable pinch hitting appearances. (Though that was largely because Kielty was a switch-hitter and as such Gardy felt he could hit against either a RHP or LHP.) So I can hope, right?

 
 
brianS
brianS replied on February 26th, 2008 at 11:09 am

I want to see Machado's defense. If he can roughly match Punto's glove at 2b, then I'm looking for somewhere to dump Punto, just to minimize Gardy's Scrubinifixation temptations. 'cuz you KNOW he'd play Punto 90 pct of the time given the opportunity.

ubelmann
ubelmann replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

I really doubt the Twins would unload Punto. He's a pretty known quantity with a skillset (all-glove!) that they like. Machado may also not be 100% to start the season from the sounds of it.

Banjo
Banjo replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:47 pm

Free Alexi Casilla!!

(There - I started it for you...just like shotting fish in a barrel :)

ubelmann
ubelmann replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:57 pm

Actually, I'm pretty down on Casilla these days, and I think he has a lot left to prove in Rochester. He's had a weird development path, so it's a little tough ot get a handle on him, but there's not much room for error when you hit for no power whatsoever. It seems like with his skillset, he has to be a smart ballplayer to take advantage of his tools, but we certainly didn't see that in his time in Minnesota. Also, I ran across some minor league defensive stats the other day that had him as below average at 2B and at SS, so he might not be so hot there, either.

He's just 23 and under team control essentially for free, so there's no point in "giving up" on him now, but I'm not champing at the bit for him to play in the majors.

Banjo
Banjo replied on February 26th, 2008 at 5:06 pm

I have confidence Punto will have a better year and that his usage, one way or another will be close to ideal. I think some people will still bitch and moan about it, but used properly, Punto does have value.

ubelmann
ubelmann replied on February 26th, 2008 at 5:34 pm

I'm not sure how just close his usage will be to ideal--it'll likely be better in the past at any rate--but I agree that Punto has value when used properly and that some people are going to bitch and moan even if Punto is used properly.

(LTEs wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
 
 
brianS
brianS replied on February 26th, 2008 at 11:57 am

btw, a couple 40-man roster questions.

First, who is Brian Bass and where did he come from (other than the obvious -- the KC system). I have zero recollection of him even though he spent all of last season at Rochester.

second, why is Darnell McDonald still on the 40-man? What does he bring to the table? And what does/did it cost us to keep him on the 40-man?

SBG
SBG replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:19 pm

Darnell is off the 40-man. The Twins passed him through waivers to make room for "He Shall Be" Livan.

DK
DK replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:26 pm

ouch, sorry, I'm slow.

SBG
SBG replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:37 pm

Not as slow as brianS!

brianS
brianS replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:50 pm

Hyuck, hyuck.

Uhhh, whuhhh?

 
 
 
 
DK
DK replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:25 pm

Joe C. wrote the other day that McDonald was passed through waivers to make room for Livan. The Twins website lists 41 players on the 40-man so this would seem to be a lack of updating.

 
thisisbeth
thisisbeth replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

Well, obviously we picked up Bass from the Royals last year. I want to say he was a guy out of options, but, uh, I can't remember anymore. That was a year ago! I know you can all read the stats, but he made 37 appearances last year, and 10 starts. At the beginning of the 2007 season he was in the bullpen, but made spot starts in May, June, and early July. It looks like he took a permanent spot in the starting rotation in mid-July. As a starter he had a 2.85 ERA, .95 WHIP, 4.80 K/BB (7.2 K/9), and averaged 6 innings/start. I was talking to a friend and we were wondering how Brian's last name was pronounced--like the fish or the musical term? MLB tells us helpfully that it's pronounced "BASS". Good to know...

Darnell McDonald was dropped from the 40-man for Livian Hernandez and cleared waivers. I speculate he was just on the roster because coming into the off-season, there weren't a lot of centerfield option; with Pridie and Gomez on the roster, McDonald became less important.

 
ubelmann
ubelmann replied on February 26th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

I don't know much about Bass, but ZiPS has him projected for a 5.28 ERA this year. I'd be interested to know what each of his pitches are like. If he has one plus offering, he could potentially adapt well to a relief role, sort of like Guerrier.

 
 
Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on February 26th, 2008 at 4:18 pm

"Punto? The sportos, the motor heads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, and d!ckheads...the all adore him. They think he's a righteous dude."

hmmm...which category does Gardy fall in?

 
socaltwinsfan
socaltwinsfan replied on February 26th, 2008 at 5:28 pm

The platoon is an idea I would embrace, except for one problem. We all know if Punto is the "starting" second baseman, he will be batting leadoff, not seventh or eighth. The only person I could see batting leadoff ahead of Punto (in Gardy's mind) would be Mauer and I don't quite see him grasping onto that idea.

 
Kyle
Kyle replied on February 26th, 2008 at 5:58 pm

This is all academic... your 2008 AL ROY: Matt Tolbert!

 

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