As his first season in the NBA comes to a close, I think it’s fair to say that Corey Brewer is somewhat of a disappointment. Brewer was picked seventh overall in the 2007 NBA Draft. The Wolves, I think, expected that Brewer would have a little more offensive game than he has shown. I don’t watch college basketball and I had no idea what Brewer was until he landed in Minnesota and started showing me zero offensive game. John Hollinger knew, though, that he’d have trouble. His pre-season remarks on Brewer were as follows:

Brewer might be the single happiest person I've ever seen. Minnesota's first-round pick is constantly smiling, but this season might provide a stern test for his good spirits. Not only will he be toiling in an NBA backwater, but Brewer might have a tough adjustment to the NBA at the offensive end. He's great in transition, but he's also an awkward ball handler and a mediocre outside shooter, two qualities which might limit his offensive production.

The prospects are brighter at the defensive end. Brewer is 6-9 but has the agility to defend shooting guards; his length and quickness should make him a quality player at that end right from the word go. But unless his skill level increases sharply, my guess is that his impact will be as a role player rather than a star.

Indeed. Brewer is a terrible ball handler and he lays so many bricks, you’d have sworn he was from Hebron. Of the 28 rookies on pace to play 500 minutes this year, he’s 26th in PER. Of course, what Brewer brings is hard to measure by PER. But, David Thorpe of ESPN has him rated the 20th best rookie (and dropping), which would be great if you are a second round pick, but the kid was picked seventh. Corey plays hard and he’s a pretty good defender, but man, you have to be Ben Wallace in your prime to be a premier player in the league with that big of a cipher at the offensive end. Brewer’s got the chance to be a decent, serviceable player in this league with a lot of work, but there’s an ocean between what brings to a game and what a truly elite player brings.

I’m not writing this to denigrate Brewer, but to comment on the nature of the NBA Draft. If you are picking seventh, chances are better than zero that you do not end up with an elite player. I mean, this isn’t like the NFL, where, say, Troy Williamson falls into your lap at number seven (heh). No, this is the NBA. To get a really good player, you have to be way up there (and of course, there have been some really epic flops high on the draft board).

Which leads me to this. The Wolves (18-51), by winning, are making it far more likely that they will get a player with limited skills with their first round pick. They now have the fourth worst record in the NBA and are only a half game behind the Knicks. The Clippers are now within reach. It’s not inconceivable that the Wolves will finish with the sixth worst record. With a little bad luck in the lottery, they could end up with, say, the seventh pick. Thank goodness that it's unlikely they'll move up further in the standings and risk losing their pick (top ten protected) to the Clippers. That would be an unmitigated disaster.

Start scouring the scouting reports for flawed players. One is likely coming this way. Also, think of some poultry references, because a Top Jimmy column decrying the Wolves winning ways (they are the only team of the bottom ten in the league to have a winning record over their last ten) is coming soon to a KFC near you. Butterball and Cornish Game Hen references be damned, it's hard to argue that things have gotten decidedly less optimistic about the 2008 draft over the last couple of weeks. If only we had a top five player who wanted to sit and tank the rest of the season.

The Wolves play at Houston (48-23) tonight. It seems like a month ago that the Rockets won 22 straight. They followed that up by losing three of four before beating the Kings. Houston is now 3rd in the West, one game behind the NO Hornets, but also tied with the fifth seeded Spurs and just a half game ahead of the sixth seeded Suns. In other words, they’ve got no room for error. The Rockets need to right the ship and our hard fighting Wolves are the kind of team they need to beat to avoid falling further in the standings. The West is a cruel, cruel place to be. Rockets are favored by 11 at home and the O/U is 190. I think we’ll see the Rockets win, but that spread is pretty big. Houston has a suffocating defense, so I’ll take the under.