No Free Pass
Posted by ubelmann on Monday, March 31st, 2008 at 11:55 pm
I noticed something when reading through some of the 2,500+ comments on tonight's Mariners-Rangers game thread over at Lookout Landing. Some Mariners fans there expected Pat Neshek to intentionally walk Vlad in the 8th inning. That thought never actually crossed my mind because I have that much confidence in Neshek (and generally dislike the intentional walk) but let's think back on that situation.
Two outs, Twins ahead by one run, Gary Matthews dumps in a bloop double. With the entire bullpen rested I think a lot of managers would have given Vlad the intentional walk ("we're not going to let him beat us"), and put in the situational lefty (Reyes in this case) to face Garrett Anderson. Let's see what everyone's PECOTA-forecasted splits look like here (positive differences favor bringing Reyes in):
.210/.281/.325 -- Neshek vs. RHB
.227/.338/.299 -- Reyes vs. LHB
-.017/-.057/+0.26 -- Differences
.305/.359/.475 -- Vlad vs. RHP
.264/.298/.409 -- Garrett vs. LHP
+.041/+.063/+.066 -- Differences
Vlad's a lot better than GA is, but Reyes' control problems make him a substantial threat to load the bases and Neshek's probably just about as likely to retire Vlad as Reyes is likely to retire GA. Further, it's well within Mike Scocia's power to bring in Juan Rivera to face Dennys Reyes, which makes it:
.210/.281/.325 -- Neshek vs. RHB
.258/.367/.367 -- Reyes vs. RHB
-.048/-.086/-.042 -- Differences
.305/.359/.475 -- Vlad vs. RHP
.294/.347/.464 -- Rivera vs. LHP
+.009/+.012/+.011 -- Differences
Vlad's better against RHP than Juan Rivera is against LHP, but the difference is much smaller than the difference between Neshek vs. RHB and Reyes vs. RHB and Rivera would be facing Reyes with an extra runner on base. On top of that, it's nice to not burn through the bullpen in case Reyes is needed tomorrow.
All things told, I think that having Neshek face Vlad was the right decision, and I think a lot of managers would have made the wrong decision there. So I give Gardy credit for that.
Of course, he still made a ridiculous choice to go with Monroe over Kubel to start at DH (which led to him pinch-hitting Kubel later in the game so that Kubel could face ... a right-handed pitcher). I suppose this is another point of evidence in favor of the "managers just don't make a very big difference" case.
[Side note on the Kubel vs. Monroe decision. If I wasn't so lazy, I would get a screen capture of this page where it is claimed in the title/subtitle "Monroe gets the call over Kubel/But Gardenhire says DH will be a platoon position" and then in the first paragraph "Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said recently that he would not use a platoon for the club's designated hitter spot. Instead, he would rotate left-handed hitter Jason Kubel and right-handed hitter Craig Monroe based on matchups and other factors." And nowhere in the article itself is it asserted that there will be a DH platoon in the traditional L/R sense of the term. If you'll excuse me, I'm off to brush up on my newspeak.]
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For ubes:
Screen captures are ridiculously easy on Macs.
Thanks, CH! The capture is easy enough for me, I just didn't want to bother cropping the picture.
That's the beauty of the Mac system - you can crop as you capture. All that was left for me to do was host the image.
Try Skitch (on Mac) to ridiculously easily share screen caps!
It never occurred to me to IBB Vlad either. I think I would have been pissed had they done it. Neshek isn't some dude you put out there and hope he's gonna somehow make it through a couple of batters -- he's a fantastic reliever who's death on everyone. Vlad did give him a battle, but in the end, the message sent was that you don't have much of a chance against him.
Good non-move by Gardy.
And in my mind, GA has done more damage against the Twins in the past than Vlad has. FWIW (which is virtually nothing)
Dick and Bert were commenting on this during the game. When Neshek went 2-0 on Vlad with the chubby lefty warming up, they alluded to pitching around Vlad as"not a bad idea". I was so glad he went after him. What a great job by Neshek.
Also, we couldn't get the ESPN2 feed off of satellite due it "not available in your viewing area". This really sucked because it is hard to watch baseball on a standard feed once you have watched it on HD a few times. It is maddening that Fox Sports Net, has an HD channel on my system, but only has an HD feed every 5 or 6 games at the most.
That sounds like an issue of vital national importance, worthy of a series of congressional hearings. Call your congressperson!!!
read here about FSN's HD plans
clicky
Good analysis, ubes. I'll add it to the Gardy decision tracker.
When Neshek's first two pitches were way outside, I was worried they had told him to unintentionally intentionally walk him so that Reyes could face Garrett, thus improving the Angels' expected run totals. I was so glad he went after him. Never ever ever ever put the winning run on the basepaths intentionally, unless the pitcher is up next in the early innings, or you're facing 2002 Barry Bonds.