Nick Blackburn vs. Javier Vazquez
I was watching the White Sox beat down the Tigers last night, and a couple of things stuck out at me:
1) The White Sox should have a pretty good offense this year. Swisher and Quentin could be pretty big sticks and Orlando Cabrera is a lot better than whatever they were throwing out at second base last year. Jermaine Dye is aging, but PECOTA still has him projected to be about as good as Kubel/Cuddyer/Young this year--and Mauer/Morneau are the only hitters obviously better than Kubel/Cuddyer/Young for the Twins.
2) The White Sox could have a pretty decent defensive infield. I'm not the world's biggest Orlando Cabrera fan, but Crede-Cabrera-Uribe can cover a lot of ground, Uribe's got a great arm for turning DPs and whatnot, and they can probably collectively overcome Konerko's general badness.
3) With Curtis Granderson out, the Tigers' defense looks bad. Really, really bad. One of the things that got them to the WS in '06 was a well above average defense, but they seem far removed from that these days.
Anyway, Blackburn takes on the Sox this afternoon. His first start was a success from just about any angle you look at it, but it's just one start. It would be a huge blessing if he could continue to pitch like that. U.S. Cellular is a great place to hit home runs, so it will be especially important for Blackburn to continue inducing groundballs.
Vazquez is the Sox' best starter, with 9.3 K/G against just 2.2 BB/G last season, with an xFIP of 3.83. He's right-handed, so there's some chance the Twins can muster some run support for Blackburn, but I'm not holding my breath.
Stray thoughts:
Mauer is catching for the 7th time in 8 games today. I'm OK with it, but at some point, he's going to have to start getting some days off.
Span in RF. Yikes, that's giving up a lot of pop to the league, isn't it?
The disconnect between the Twins focusing on their pitchers not walking people and their hitters swinging at everything in the zip code of home plate continues to make my head hurt. If it's a tumor, I'm suing the Twins for intentional infliction.
Speaking of which--Blackburn is the only starter to issue a walk so far. Dammit, kid, find the plate, will ya?
I like it when the Twins hit the ball over the fence. I'd like to see someone besides Morneau try it out.
I'm pretty sure Mauer will get a day off tomorrow.
Span has a PECOTA-projected .100 ISO against RHP and Monroe has a PECOTA-projected .155 ISO against RHP. So you're giving up some pop there, but PECOTA also thinks that Span will have an OBP 38 points better than Monroe against RHP. I think it's reasonable to take the 38 points of OBP over 55 points of ISO, and Span's defense is likely better than Monroe's too.
Of course, that doesn't let Bill Smith off the hook for giving Gardy nothing but bad choices.
I'd like to see someone besides Morneau try it out.
Kubel did it first.
Yep, my point wasn't that Monroe is clearly better for the job than Span, my point was that we aren't supplied with tremendous options.
I'm aware that Kubel hit the first homer. Gimme some poetic license, will ya?
I'd be really happy if Kubel did it again.
Gimme some poetic license, will ya?
Maybe if you start writing in iambic pentameter.
How about a quick Haiku:
No fun Ubelmann
shows spring parade of 4-3
I just want homers!
+17 You even got a seasonal reference in there. Very nice.
Nice, E. in M. We're watching.
--Hokme Award Committee
I'm surprised he caught Saturday afternoon after the Friday night game.
Kubel's in the lineup, and that is decidedly a good thing. Span's in the lineup in RF--which I don't think is a bad thing in and of itself (Craig Monroe isn't much of a solution against RHP) but Span is batting second, so that Gardy has three consecutive lefties: Span, Mauer, Morneau. That smells like a recipe for a Matt Thornton 1-2-3 inning.
Gomez/Span hitting 1/2. Either there will be tons of speed on the bases for Mauer/Morneau, or there will be a lot of empty bases for Mauer/Morneau.
b
I'm expecting emptiness.
A searing, lonely emptiness on the bases.
An emptiness that recalls the uninhabited plains of years long gone.
The emptiness that makes one pine for the halcyon days of Luis Castillo.
Empty...
E. in M.:
E.M. Forster meets slug bunt.
We are watching. (Hokme Award Committee)
From the radio pre-game: "Joe Vavra says he likes the approach his team has taken."
E-6 only a few bloops and a blast away from the 5K marker. Remember, E-6. It's for posterity!
If they must continue with "Bert Blyleven: Traffic Safety Private Eye", I wish they could at least have some new spots rather than the ones I heard all last season.
Amen.
Sooo...does Gameday no longer run in Safari? Can't seem to get it to work...
you mean that Microsoft League Baseball has messed with their software again?
I can't run it either; needs flash update. Try this instead.
Thanks!
4 walks in 5 innings for Vasquez in his first start. Over/under for Twins walks today?
one
Well, that's taken care of.
Gomez = bunt demigod
Actually, I haven't been that impressed with Gomez' bunting. Granted, it's great when it works, but given the number of attempts he's made compared to the number of times he's been successful, I don't think he's that great at bunting.
Having the threat of the bunt-for-hit with the bases empty is nice, however.
yeah. And I'm using Punto as a reference point.
Nice start. But it makes me nervous. Don't do that too often, GoGo. We want you to swing away.
So, I guess Span "did his job"?
yes, and he didn't even have to bunt to do it.
Gomez = SB demigod
Steal avoids the GIDP. Span fits in to that 2-hole perfectly.
Hawk fellating the Twins for their fundamentals.
o/u on pitches to Delmon?
Two!
Delmon Young is going to start to irritate me very soon.
Just remember to stick with the program--no one doubts Delmon's talent. No one.
Departure from reality was brief, but exhilarating.
DELMONNN!!! come on man, show some power eventually. These pithy groundballs are getting stale.
Swisher is one of those players that annoys me.
And the bloom may be off the rose. I'm very scared of this Thome at bat
First and third with Thome at bat and no outs. I sense danger.
Apparantly it was even more dangerous for the fan who got hit with his bat.
Okay, let's get a triple play here.
Two strikeouts and a ground out work just as well.
So, about this Blackburn guy... do I presume the honeymoon is over?
If things continue at this rate, it may be considered more of a one-night stand than a honeymoon.
Twins pitching coaches prolly over-emphasized Radke as a role model during Spring Training.
Probably right alongside the "don't forget to groove your fastball belt high, all the time" bit.
Those were some quality pitches to Dye.
Ultimately, not bad by Blackburn. He didn't lose it, and made some good pitches. I have to say, I have no idea where this ability to miss bats has come from. We'll see if it lasts, but he had Konerko confused and made some nasty pitches to Dye. I have no idea how he struck out so few in the minors.
Were the Cabrera/Thome singles on ground balls? I also have no idea where these K's are coming from, but it's exactly the sort of thing a pitcher needs to bail himself out of jams like that.
The Thome hit was a hard grounder in the hole.
Kubel is so much more than boxed wine...
I have a feeling we are going to lead the league in bunts this year. Sigh.
Has any team led the league in both bunts and GIDPs?
That would be impressive in a really perverse way.
Did Harris actually bunt to set up Lamb and Everett? Swing the bat!!
But, but, it "worked'! Gardy's probably paranoid about hitting into DPs at this point, but if you can't trust a guy not to hit into a DP, maybe you need to consider another man for the job.
Hey, a double to score a run. Someone should write that down and put it in the play book.
It's certainly one of my favorite plays.
There's probably a crude picture on the internet that would be a visual interpretation of a "Lamb going 2".
Not you, Everett.
I was just about to praise Gomez for laying off those sliders...then he couldn't lay off that slider.
On a 3-2 count, Gomez is going to strike out 85% of the time.
Not that we have to worry about that scenario happening too often. He'll actually have to lay off three pitches to get to a 3-2 count.
That's just GoGo trying to emulate EyeEye.
Dirty Thirty is bringing the Awesome.
wow, what did I miss
With Vazquez or Buehrle on the mound, it's pretty easy to see the White Sox as playoff contenders...but then there's the rest of their starting pitching. Yeah.
Blackburn can't start walking people and expect to survive. Get Cabrera out now.
Yeah, Nick. Nick's a real name. Nick's your buddy. Nick's the kind of guy you can trust, the kind of guy you can drink a beer with, the kind of guy who doesn't mind if you puke in his car, Nick.
I concur.
I know Denard's name is "Span", but I always say "Spain" in my head for some reason, so hearing Gordo say it correctly outloud messes with my head.
I also tend to want to call him de'Spaniard.
It's a little refreshing that Gordo and Dazzle have not been talking about Blackburn's pitch count yet. It may get to be a real issue eventually, but they have been obsessing over pitch counts most of the year, so I'm glad they're giving it a rest so far.
Back from New Jersey. Did I really miss TWO homeruns?
Depends. How many days were you gone?
Saturday until this morning.
Then the answer is "yes".
Congrats, Darnell
+15 days, Rhu_Ru.
If everyone knows they are going to screw with the baseball for a player's first hit, how does the joke continue to work?
how do you mean screw with?
Gordo and Dazz talking about a "standard" practical joke played on guys collecting their first career hits. They present a defaced ball as though it were THE ball, then eventually pony up the real thing, signed by everyone.
Allright Joe, bunt him over!
Call for the ball, Denard! Congrats on that first hit. (I hear he reads Twins sites.)
I always imagined that 1st MLB hit. Even if my career ended the next day, I'd be able to have that ball on my mantle for the rest of my life. That'd be amazing.
anyone have the data for pitches per plate app for joe?
Here.
Joe's at 4.00 this year, 3.93 career.
That was a crappy at bat by Mauer. He had several pitches to hit.
I assume Justin "did his job."
Morneau just missed that.
Ohhh Delly.
I looked away from gamecast for 10 seconds and Young struck out... did he actually manage to strike out on two pitches?
Actually, it was a long at-bat for Delmon: five pitches.
throw the bat at the ump!
throw the bat at the ump!
throw the bat at the ump!
Wow. No fear of Thome at all. Just put him away with a fastball running away after two called strikes on the inner half.
Adios!
Ozzie giving the home opener fans a show.
I was on the phone for a minute--what was the argument about?
My guess is that it was just B(alls and)S(trikes.)
What's up with Cap'n Hand/Don Guixote?
Whoa. Why'd Ozzie get ejected?
Big bending curve at the belt by Blackburn and Ozzie was just sticking up for Konerko before Paul could get a word in. Of course, being Ozzie, he was tossed before he had even left the dugout but then made sure he "got a word in".
I'm no umpire, but it looked to me like the strike-iest strike that ever striked. Not really an arguable pitch.
Yeah, well, I don't think anyone's ever accused Guillen of not being an idiot.
what happened?
You forgot to ring 'em up, Rhu_Ru!
Nick's your buddy.
At this rate he'll be Blackburnt-out by the 5th inning, but I suppose we have an off day tomorrow.
Looks like Blackburn is missing a few bats again. Pitch count is high, but that can be worked on.
I think a lot of start-to-start variance in pitch count per inning comes from the opposing lineup and the umpire. The Angels are free swingers, but the White Sox have some pretty patient guys on their team now. (Plus AJP and his 13-pitch, 12-swing at-bats.)
Blackburn's WHIP over 2.00 but on pace for a quality start!
If, in fact, the result of that argument is a shrinking of the strike zone for the Twins, there is no team less likely to take advantage of that.
Here's an NL analog to Palehose 8 that might be worth monitoring.
and speaking of Palehose 8, I almost peed my pants on this week's offering.
In play, run(s). Me likey.
Extra base hits! It's a start.
From the bottom of the lineup? No wonder Ozzie was so upset. That's clearly against the rules.
that pitch now on the Lamb
From Gladden "Harris held to a long double."
Not sure I've heard that before. Lamb with another RBI. Way to go!
Mike Lamb? Really?
Against RHP, sure.
Neverhitt in true form. Is there any level of offensive ineptitude that could get him benched at some point this season?
There wasn't for Punto last year.
Will he make us long for the site of ol' #8 out there?
I need a hug.
Benched for who? Punto is equally bad at hitting and worse at fielding, Casilla isn't ready, Plouffe is still in AA, Tolbert looks stretched defensively as a SS, and Harris certainly can't handle SS. This team forfeited having any kind of choice at SS when they dealt Bartlett away.
I don't know. I could see the guy hitting under .200 with an OBP around .250 midway through the season now that he's out of that RH hitters haven in Houston. I don't mind the idea of sacrificing offense to get an elite defender out there, but is there a point where Gardenhire just can't pencil him in anymore? At some point maybe you just give Casilla or Tolbert a shot.
I'm not necessarily endorsing the idea, just musing really.
There's no evidence that Everett had a home/away split in Houston that was more extreme than the normal park factor, and his park-adjusted stats have him as an approximately replacement level hitter in the past and going forward. I think the concerns about leaving Houston and coming here are overblown.
except for the promotion from AAAA part
I'm guessing there's a reason that Gordo and Dazz aren't in management.
Or at least I'm hoping.
Hey, game's still on! Late start?
3:10 CDT.
Patient batter, Crede there.
12 LOB in first 3 innings. Sux 4 Sox fans.
Putting Crede and Uribe on for the top of the Sox lineup is pretty dangerous.
Seems weird to have them batting 8, 9. Skipper pithed about something?
No, Crede and Uribe are simply the 8th and 9th-best hitters in that lineup. They both bring above average defense into the picture, though, so it's not a big deal given the rest of the hitters they have in that lineup.
Well they are probably the two worst hitters in the lineup, other than maybe Quentin.
PECOTA-projected EQA:
.275 -- Quentin
.254 -- Crede
.252 -- Uribe
Touche.
I only remember because I really liked that acquisition for the White Sox. Dye is going to be gone eventually, and Quentin has always hit in the minors.
And for fun:
.277 -- Delmon
.266 -- Lamb
.261 -- Harris
.249 -- Gomez
.247 -- Span
.219 -- Everett
Two outs, tying run on second, first base open, and still BlacKKKKKburn just attacks Thome in the strike zone early in that at-bat. Brave or stupid? Worked out that time anyway...
Thanx, bS. Had to make a food run for Runner daughter; school play matinees
'Runner' good moniker then
uh, too true. At least I got a "thanks" this time.
Blackburn has been pretty freakin' lucky today considering how much trouble he's gotten himself into and out of.
No respect for Denard at yahoo: they have no mugshot for him.
todays game seems like its being played at a snails pace
Actually I'm kind of glad about that. I'm at work until 5:30 and I'd like to catch the ending when I get home.
and after I type this, 2 straight 1-2-3 innings
Think Blackburn comes out for the sixth?
I think I would try to sneak one more inning out of Blackburn, especially with the 7-8-9 guys due up.
I'd send him out to start the 6th, but with an off day tomorrow, I wouldn't worry about making him finish the inning.
At 90 pitches, I've got to imagine Blackburn is done for the day. Neshek and Nathan are available for the eighth and ninth, but how does Gardy handle the sixth and seventh? Try to get two innings out of Guerrier? Crain pitched yesterday and I know the club is trying to avoid running him out on consecutive days early in the season, and this isn't a very lefty-heavy lineup so I doubt Reyes would be too useful. I hate the thought of sending Rincon out there in a one-run affair.
That's why I might try to get one more out of Blackburn. I don't have 4 innings worth of faith in the pen.
We're all going to have to get used to our second-string bullpen guys pitching in tight games, because the offense isn't going to give us many easy wins and I think the starting pitching is going to keep a lot of games close (though we'll get blown out more than we blow out the other team.)
then
Cheese + smallie = ??
bS' lunch?
mebbe Bass woulda been a better choice than Shaggy + Sideshow after all.
This is the Twin offense I know and love.
A true fan!
From ESPN's MLB Gamecast:
Uh, not quite, guys.
If Gomez stole 5 bases in one game, I think he'd need to steal third twice and home once.
And it's Guerrier.
Too early on Blackburn's pull IMO. Only 90 pitches.
90 pitches in 5 innings is pretty stressful. Most of the data on pitcher injuries suggests that long innings hurt more than long outings. I'd feel more comfortable sending him out with 90 pitches after 7 innings, but I'm okay with Gardy's decision to pull him here, especially so early in the season and with the off day tomorrow.
Eh. I've got faith in Guerrier/Neshek/Nathan to take care of business for four innings with the off-day tomorrow. Just Blackburn's second big-league start, no reason to risk overextending him. I'm not saying I would have disagreed with Gardy giving Blackburn another inning, but he's been laboring all day; I don't think it was a bad call.
Is anybody watching the game? If so, what do you think of the plate umpire's strike zone?
No complaints. I think he's been pretty good, actually.
If we're going to get 2 innings out of Guerrier, I think he's going to need to get 3 of the first 4 batters he faces.
Gack. Can't walk the immortal Juan Uribe.
Check.
Rack of Lamb.
ESPN not really exerting effort early in the season. No photoshops on Lamb or Everett.
I'm not sure that ESPN officially recognizes the existence of Houston or Minnesota, so that's probably the main problem. Gotta make sure Jeter's mugshot is airbrushed and all so we can't see the wrinkling/greying that comes with old age.
Some breathing room would be nice. Neshek and Nathan aren't going to be perfect all season long.
What are the odds of getting a big inning out of Lamb, Everett, Gomez, and possibly Span?
What, did they all remember they have somewhere to be all of a sudden?
Umps gotta catch a flight outta Midway.
Rhu_Ru: going with the cheese or teeshirts for Shaggy K's? Or is that only a starter thing?
Cheese? That's a Wisconsin thing. And a reach for a pun.
Hit the ball! Even if a bunt works, all it gets us is a runner on first with two out.
Yeah but it's good to have runners on base for when Denard Span starts launching those monstrous homeruns.
Good grief. They got scared of scoring runs. 3 in 4 innings was too much, so they hastily shut it down.
Well, now the 8th inning is set up perfectly for a Sox lefty reliever, with Vazquez at 98 pitches nonetheless, so I don't have great hopes for any insurance there. And with an off day tomorrow, maybe Guillen gambles and throws Big Boy out for the 9th. I think we might have to make this one run stand up.
Careful - Thome a threat to steal.
wish that had been #5000 there, actually
I've got a bad feeling about Shaggy now. he's giving up too many baserunners
A double-play here would be very nice.
Here comes Sideshow
Wouldn't mind seeing Neshek now.
Oh, hey Neshek.
Dye very germaine phrase for our lead.
C R @ P
Pulled from Neshek's blog this morning: "I have a feeling I'm going to give up a game-tying base hit to Jermaine Dye today"
AWWWWWWW FUDGE!
And thanks for playing, everybody.
Holy Hell Batman
*almost sets off nuclear blast by accident*
Good Night Now
Made it home just in time to flip on the TV and see Crede's grand salami. Lucky me.
I was just checking WGN for the game; nice that the Cubs were on instead (and just finished)
That was NOT easy.
its going to take a while to get those ERA's down after that inning
Ozzie not even bothering with a lefty reliever given the 4-run cushion. Neshek was bound to give up some runs eventually--this was a rather unfortunate way for that to happen.
I'd rather he get his RA for the
weekmonth all out of the way in one lump sum, however.Joey Cora is the manager cause Ozzie was kicked out
I just noticed, not only is ESPN's Gameday close to real-time, the bottom scroll also gives the batter's average for the current ball/strike count. Nice.
a bloop. one more, then a blast and we're back in business.
play it, smalls.
Damn! Kubel has to be the unluckiest hitter in the league.
crax. almost big money.
What happened?
Kubel blasted one deep, but was caught
It sure would be nice to have some good PH options off of the bench. Tolbert and Monroe aren't much of an upgrade over Everett and Gomez or Everett and Span even if Gardy decides to go in that direction.
He's been getting the job done, though.
You could have said the same thing about Punto in the second half of 2006.
As long as you weren't continuing to say it in 2007, I don't see the problem with that.
The problem is the Punto had a track record that suggested he was over his head in 2006. Tolbert has a track record that suggests he's over his head now.
It's better that he's have a nice week than a crappy week, but it's April 7th right now. BS should've been able to give Gardy a better bench than he has right now.
tobert!
kaboom
blow it up
Hope she's wearing some sun-screen. SPF 1K.
Please open your eyes,
Try to realize.
I found out today we're going wrong,
We're going wrong.
Please open your mind,
See what you can find.
I found out today we're going wrong,
We're going wrong.