Yeah, that’s the ticket!
Posted by Rhubarb_Runner on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 at 8:06 am
LaRussa puts pitcher in the 8th spot in the lineup, which (obviously) is the main reason why they're doing well.
The Cardinals, 9-4 and atop the National League Central this season, have gone 37-32 while improving their key offensive numbers since La Russa revived an experiment he first tried in 1998. In both instances, he was trying to energize a lethargic offense.
In other news, Gardy plans to scrap the DH, and bat his pitcher in the #2 spot.
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As the article mentions, there's some evidence that batting the pitcher 8th is better in certain circumstances than batting the pitcher 9th. Though it is a small effect, and the USA Today article exaggerates how helpful it has been, one thing (perhaps the only thing) that I like about LaRussa is that he's got the cajones to do something unconventional if he thinks it'll help his team win.
I give him that credit. I was more humored by its effect USAToday seems to attach to their current record.
Actually, we have OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE in favor of the value of batting the pitcher 8th! STL is in first at 9-4 and Milwaukee is in second at 8-4!
it's a freakin' TREND!
Who are you, Stephen A. Smith?
I was thinking more along the lines of Regis.
While the effect is statistically small (just like any changeup in batting order is), it makes sense. That way if you have an all or nothing hitter (like a Rob Deer) you can put him in the #7 spot. Put the pitcher 8th, as he's the least likely then to bat with people to drive in. Then give your #1 hitter (who should be really good, not just fast) a chance to drive in runs too.
All in all, the effect may be responsible for just one, two wins tops over the course of a season. But yeah, kudos to LaRussa.
We did this in HS. Our worst hitter, usually myself, batted 8th. Then, when the #9 hitter had an increased chance of getting on base, the leadoff guy was more likely to have someone to drive in.
Due to the reasons you guys mention, I don't mind this move, but generally speaking LaRussa seems to me like a guy who might use an unconventional strategy just to keep his reputation as a baseball guru and his name in the newspapers.
The reason I read to bat your pitchers eighth is because after the sixth of seventh inning, the pitcher doesn't bat anyway and the pinch hitter is better than your previous number eight hitter (but worse than the seventh) so over the entire season, you net a few more wins.
What's funny is the article shows a chart of before and after numbers for the move. To me, it seems like the Cards are scoring more runs due to the fact that they are getting on base more and hitting more extra base hits. The lineup change cannot affect OBP and SLG unless you buy into the "protection in the lineup" theory that many statisticians seem to shun. It seems to me that the lineup change would only change runs and RBIs.
W-L Runs a game Avg. On-base% Slugging%
Before: 50-56 4.39 .270 .334 .399
After: 37-32 4.63 .279 .346 .420
It's not that I argue with the idea of batting the pitcher 8th... I just don't think the data posted in the article supports the argument. In fact, it almost disproves the idea. I would think with the OPS of the team rising by .33, it would support the idea that the players are just having higher quality at bats, which lead to the increased run total.
Am I correct on this?
"In other news, Gardy plans to scrap the DH, and bat his pitcher in the #2 spot."
You got that backwards, Gardy's actually planning on scrapping the bullpen and pitching Kubel in the 7th inning of close games (he'll go two innings if he's strong).