Paul Byrd vs. Scott "Light Rail" Baker
Undoubtedly, we will hear a lot about how Byrd pitched well against the Twins last season. (It was the first thing that I thought of when I saw that Byrd was making the start today.) Over 4 starts, he threw 29 innings and had a 3.41 ERA. There are many reasons I don't think that's especially meaningful, but I'll focus on one for now: this isn't the same team as last year, even if the uniforms look the same. Looking at the active roster, the following players didn't play against Byrd last year: Young, Gomez, Harris, Lamb, Buscher, Monroe, Tolbert, and D-SPAN2. Now, maybe that group on the whole isn't as good as the group last year, but if Byrd had any sort of special magic against the Twins last year, there's not much reason to believe he still has some kind of special magic against this year's team.
Looking at the small sample size stats of current Twins against Byrd, it's kind of crazy. Five players have an OPS over .900, five players have an OPS below .600, and no one is anywhere in between.
Perhaps the most surprising thing on the list was that Mauer has hit only .208/.296/.250. 27 PA is almost enough to me make think maybe there's something there, but for the life of me, I can't think of a reason that a right-handed pitcher who throws strikes should be able to "own" Mauer. If we assume that every time Mauer faces Byrd, he is equally likely to be successful--which isn't a terrific assumption--then the variance in his OBP should be a binomial variable, to a good approximation. After 27 PA, though, one standard deviation of a binomial variable with p=.296 is something like .088. Mauer's career OBP against right-handed pitching is .416.
Mauer has faced nine different right-handed pitchers 20 times or more--Jason Johnson, Jeremy Bonderman, Jose Contreras, Freddy Garcia, Kevin Millwood, Jake Westbrook, Jon Garland, Paul Byrd, and Javier Vazquez. His OBP is more than one standard deviation below .416 against two of those pitchers--Byrd and Vazquez--and it is more than one standard deviation above .416 against none of those pitchers (though his .500 OBP against Jason Johnson is pretty close.) If the difference in his performance against those pitchers was just a matter of luck, we would probably wind up with a pretty similar result--so looking at the data, it's tough to say that Mauer has been anything other than unlucky against Byrd.
My point isn't so much that Mauer will start hitting Byrd better--my point is that we can't say that Mauer will continue to struggle just by looking at his 5 for 24 performance against Byrd. And for that matter, we can't tell whether or not Redmond will hit well against Byrd by looking at his 7 for 20 performance against Byrd. If there's some underlying cause that we can point to, I'd love to hear it and check into it, but the 5 for 24 isn't enough by itself.
Back to the "5 players over .900 OPS and 5 players under .900 OPS" point. I got to thinking it might be indicative of a platoon issue for Byrd, and sure enough, he's got a pretty big career platoon split--.240/.282/.413 against RHB and .311/.360/.492 against LHB. Delmon (in 6 AB), Redmond (in 20 AB), and Mauer (24 AB) have been exceptions to this pattern, but we expect to see some variance in the pattern. (I'll note here that two ex-Twins also have extreme performances against Byrd: Castillo (hitting lefty) hit .433/.514/.500 against Byrd in 35 PA, and Torii Hunter has hit .163/.192/.184 in 52 PA against Byrd.)
As such, I'd advise Gardy to get as many left-handed bats into the lineup as possible. Mauer needs a day off, so for now I'll hope there's some reason that Redmond has had success against Byrd. If Gardy doesn't want D-SPAN2 in the lineup, he might think about playing Lamb at 3B, Kubel in RF, and putting Buscher in at DH. I still can't really tell whether Tolbert hits better as a lefty or a righty, but it might be a good time to give Harris a day off. (Harris has made 12 straight starts and it might be nice to give him a rest for that reason alone.)
Yesterday gave us a pretty fun game, and hopefully we'll see more of the same today.
Too bad Mauer won't get a chance to start hitting Byrd today.
He's sitting to start today's game, even though the Twins have an off day tomorrow.
Good work Ron!
I remember TK would often give a regular a day off prior to an off day, reasoning that he could get the guy two days off while having them only miss one game.
And my point would be that it's April 20th.
And my point would be that few catchers catch every game, even in April; that this is a pitcher Mauer has not hit well in the past; that Redmond needs to play once in a while; and that Redmond is not a bum. I'm not a huge Gardy apologist, but I think this is a defensible move.
Given Mauer's history, he should be resting today.
1-2-3 for Light Rail in the first.
Dude in the 3-hole.
Harris helping his BABIP by beating out a dribbler to short.
Do people like Ichiro have consistently better BABIP than would be expected because of their speed?
I had heard that speed was one of the keys to a reproducibly high BABIP, but I can't point you to an accredited source or anything.
BABIP is a skill for hitters, so we don't expect all of them to be the same--guys who hit more line drives are going to have a higher BABIP.
But yeah, guys like Ichiro will reach more often on the same types of balls-in-play, so something like PrOPS is going to underestimate his OPS in general, but it usually takes a real freak to make a significant difference.
The plan was to go up to Beloit today (the weather is perfect here) to take in a game, but I found out on Thursday we've got a hockey game (I play in a rec league) at 4 this afternoon.
Who schedules a hockey game on such a beautiful day?
Young replacing Hunter's production from last year?
Doubt it.
Oh, and I love how FSN, My 29, whoever constantly miss AB's within a game because they are too busy showing irrelevant crap on their broadcasts.
Yeah, a fellow can get pulled down by those revenue streams.
Hate when Dick_n-Bert refer to players in the plural: the Hafners, the Garkos, the Martinezeseses.
Good defensive inning by Harris.
There's the Harris we expected at second
God Bert couldn't argue his way out of a paper sack
Bert's theories on Fielding Grammies for outfielders is making my head hurt.
And so begins another dominating start for Paul Byrd versus the Minnesota Twins.
I finally figured out who Light Rail reminds me of: a young Chris Walken.
Light Rail always reminds me of a drowsy Michael Cera.
I'll stick with young Walken. It's the mouth that sells it.
bunt me.
Gomez bunted! I'm shocked!
Good to see Punto has reverted back to true form.
Hallelujah!
HARRIS! Woo-hoo!
A HR?
From someone other than Kubel and Morneau?
WOW!
WE HAVE A WINNER!!!
HARRIS!
Hope there's more where that came from, Mr. Harris.
He has a nice swing from the right side when he connects.
Light Rail cruising.
Bert: "I said buckle up. Or else you'll eat glass. Now he know's better."
Hartford Man: "Whatever." *runs red light*
Hartford man listening to the Replacements?
Hartford Man is the moniker that NBBW and I have for the drivers out here.
A classic Hartford Man moment would be like you're stopped at a red light, and from behind you Hartford Man zooms up behind you, swerves wildly around your right, cuts in front of you and takes a left turn, running the red light.
Nice to see a TC pitcher getting some K's. That's 6 and counting.
guess we've been remiss:
As has been mentioned here in the past, Gordo has GOT to stop describing EVERY ball as being a "drive to right/left/deep short/the mound/wherever" -- it's beyond annoying at this point.
As comical as that is, I've decided that I much prefer Gordo/Dazz to Dick/Bert. Those two just never shut up. It's TV, boys. Let us just take in the sights and sounds of a ballgame from time to time.
I'll go along with you on that.
I love how Gordo will answer "yeah" to anything that Dazzle says, even before Dazzle has a chance to finish saying it.
Unfortunately, that's all too common for TV broadcasters these days. They feel the need to narrate everything on the screen.
"Hey look, the flag is waving in the wind!"
"Those fans seem to really be enjoying the game."
"Nick Punto is the best nose-picker in the bigs."
etc.
Re: Gordo.
Beat's Yanquis squawker. Last night after Damon 2nd BB, Sterling opines: "You know, Suzyn, those are as good as base hits."
Punto still sucks.
So the shift is on in the IF...but the OF is playing Hafner to the opposite field?
How the hell does that make sense?
Jim Thome, for example, hits about 40% of his HR's to LF, yet something like 80% of his groundballs to the right side. I was reading about it in the Bill James Gold Mine.
Come on Baker!
Atta boy!
8 K's for S-Bake.
I <3 Scott Baker
Let's buy Baker a run, huh fellas?
bottom of the order up next inning for Baker; does Gardy let him start the inning (mid-90s pitches thrown already) or a reliever?
Leave him in and let him bat for Punto.
That'd be awesome.
Run him back out there...
But have the bullpen on hold.
We look to Canada for a hero...
Still lookin'
C'mon guys.
Fabulous, Baker Boy. Buy that man a Pfeiffer.
Good time for a Red Dog special--Dink to RF.
2 bagger and audacity for hope. I'll try:
2nd try:
We're hopeless?
you just gotta follow through, kids. close the tag.
FIAL
The simplicity is particularly brilliant.
Lamb chop gobbled up.
Stick hid all the goodies... (where did I put that Fez?)
I borrowed this from Zimmy...
Crax. You know if we lose, Ubelmann will blame it on the Fez!
vault
Baker's win hope fizzles.
MLB Gameday and every other game tracker I can find is still stuck on the DY at-bat in the seventh. What's happened since?
Also, where did the nickname D-SPAN2 for Denard Span come from? Did ubes make that up? That's pretty clever.
Also, where did the nickname D-SPAN2 for Denard Span come from? Did ubes make that up? That's pretty clever.
Well, it couldn't have been ubel then.
I noticed the freeze as well. Ironic that Delmon is having the long AB.
Ah, game trackers are in catch-up mode now.
If only we had Torii's bat in the lineup. *duck+cover*
Kobayashi? Isn't that the Nathan's hot dog guy?
World's. Greatest. Athlete. (dethroned, but he'll be back!)
also the namesake for the graduation test for bridge officers in Star Fleet.
and once she was skinny and hot (with pointy ears)
Is that Kirstie Alley?
"Kobayashi Maru...damn, plot an intersect course."
yup.
cool...
and what's with the "damn"?? What a crappy Vulcan!
Gomez wouldn't be bunting here, would he?
Lay it down, clown.
Way to advance the runner, Go-go.
It wasn't a bunt, but LNP is at 2nd w/ one out...
I wonder if Elias or STATS or somebody has a record for most fouled-off bunt attempts. If not, they should count Gomez's, because it would be a tough mark for anyone to beat.
Perez vs. lefty... arghhhh.
This might be the only time I will ever say this in my entire life, but... pinch-hit Monroe for Kubes.
Nooooooooo!
I'd rather die with Kube-L than with Rondell Mark II.
Perez has given up zero hits to lefty batters this year, and Kubes is struggling mighty against southpaws...
obviously, he pitched around Kube-L to get to the weak spot in the lineup.
It's KUUUUUUUBBBBBBBBEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLL time!
Would you let him swing 3-0?
2 outs...absolutely.
Fear the Kube-L.
Kubel thought that was Strike 2
Kubel taking a walk to pad Canuck's RBI stats?
Hi fellas. I'm back from walking with the rugby team in the Relays Parade.
Rugby players eat their dead*, Andrew. They don't walk in parades.
*as seen on bumper sticker
did you wear one of these, Andrew?
No, too many kids around, unfortunately. And I've probably had enough beer the last few days anyway.
My favorite bumper sticker/slogan is "Trample the Weak, Hurdle the Dead"
Nice. We need to work that into the WGOM crest.: )
And with regards to walking in the parade - I got a lot of face time in with a lot of ladies while wearing my jersey (which they usually love), and hitting on the ladies is something rugby players do.
Touche, DeMo. Touche.
you sure that's not "Trample the Weak, Hurl on the Dead"?
I think Pau Gasol is a werewolf. Does he file his teeth?
Neshek Button
How come we never have Gomez do that?
Can someone describe Gomez's catch? Gordo is hysterical, but he never really said what happened.
completely laid out when he caught it...if he had played it safe, runner would have advanced to third only because he was waiting to see if it would be caught...could have been disastrous, but great catch
Game ball Gomez
Hunter doesn't get to that.
GoGo get 'em.
Get this game OVER before Casey Blake comes to the plate again. He's a Twin Killer.
What the hell is that?
twin killer whales sculpture.
As Blake bears a striking resemblance to actor Jeff Daniels, who appeared in The Squid and the Whale, that makes perfect sense.
Blake not waiting to inflict pain.
Is Neshek pitching Gutierrez away? I just realized I don't know if ESPN's game cast is from the pitcher or catcher's point-of-view.
yes, away
Then the pitch chart is from the pitcher's POV.
This would be a good time for Delmon's first homer as a Twin.
How the hell does Young not beat that out?
Brian Buscher? Where did he come from (and why)? Is Neverhit on the DL?
Yes.
Come on Lamb.
Check that...
Craig Monroe.
This would be a good time for Monroe's first homer as a Twin.
There's that power off the bench.
Twenty-two innings, anyone?
*starts a "Patience for Monroe" charity fund*
So is Joe Nathan not at the ballpark today?
He was warming up earlier. Gardy's obviously saving him for a save situation. Tuesday.
Show a little faith, Padre.
If only this bullpen had made the trip to Detroit earlier this week.
Punto, Gomez, Harris?
Smells like...runs.
Light a candle, open a window, get the Lysol.
C'mon Gomez.
He left us in the Lurch.
Gomez: What's this? Leather straps, red-hot pokers?
Tish: Later, my dear.
Wednesday, Puglsey. Wednesday.
I am going to kill something...attempting to bunt!?
Just swing the bat!
This would be a good time for Harris' second homer as a Twin.
Or a good time for Kubel's first HR off a LHP this season.
Wow Kubel...wow.
Come on Justin...send us home!
Kubelmann!!
Gordo and Black Jack showing confidence in Morneau--they're hoping for a wild pitch or an error.
Atta baby!!!
Had them all the way.
Oh, Canada!!
*cue fireworks*
atta boy, Mountie!
I'm ready to ooh and aahhh!
That's what I like to see.
Delayed rally cap action - overcame the jinx of the Ocelot Fez.
TWINS WIN!
long fuse on that one...
I'm okay with Harris as the star of the game, but Baker pitched awfully well. Did Bert have anything to say about him today?
The first few innings he was admonishing him to keep the ball down. Do as I say, not as I did. The last few innings, he had no choice but to be complementary. I kinda think it hurt Bert to do that, too.
The "keep the ball down" thing has always seemed like more of a cliche than a valid criticism. I don't get to see a lot of games, but when I've seen Baker pitch, it's seemed like he gets a lot of outs on high strikes. Others can tell me if I'm right or wrong, but I've always thought that was a bum rap on Baker.
Boy, that was an exciting game. Could have turned out bad - but it didn't!
I thought the Buscher at 3rd/Lamb at 1st/Morneau DH combo was an interesting one from the perspective of keeping Monroe/Span out of the lineup. Nice to see Buscher continue with a little bit of power production in his first game back up.