2008 Game 37: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Clay Buchholz vs. Livan Hernandez
Programming note: Beware the 6pm CT ESPN start time.
Buccholz has a 3.45 xFIP so far, to go with a ZiPS-projected 4.47 ERA. Lots of strikeouts (8.9 K/G), and an uspectacular/poorish walk rate (3.4 BB/G), and a decent ground balll rate (44% GB%). I certainly think he'll turn out to be a better pitcher than Jon Lester.
Livan managed to tame the Tigers when he faced them last, and it still kind of baffles my mind that he was able to do that. Can he do it to the Red Sox? I kind of doubt it, but a lot of pitchers will struggle with this lineup this year, so that's not necessarily a huge knock on Livan.
A velocity comparison:
Fastball:
84.1 mph -- Livan Hernandez
83.8 mph -- Barry Zito
Slider:
77.8 mph -- Livan (19.6% of all pitches)
75.7 mph -- Zito (only 2.5% of his pitches this year)
Curveball:
64.4 mph -- Livan
69.4 mph -- Zito
Change:
74.7 mph -- Livan
73.1 mph -- Zito
Right now, I think it's a safe bet to say that Livan Hernandez has better stuff than Barry Zito. (I even kind of like that Livan's curve is soooo slow, since it seems to help upset hitters' timing pretty well.) Holy crap it must be hard to be a Giants fan sometimes.
SBG
Better stuff than Zito.
Talk about damning with faint praise.
New Guy
How many regular starters are there with worse stuff than Zito?
SBG
Good question. BP has a stat called "STUFF", which measures a pitcher's dominance.
10 is about league average. 0 is replacement level. I looked up a couple for your reference.
Santana 33
Baker 23
Captain Cheeseburger 21
Boof 10
Wakefield 1
Silva -2
Livan -4
Zito -14
F-Bomb (Cover your eyes) -29
They don't have an easily accessible report or I'd answer your question directly.
twayn
7 years/$126M (2007-13), plus 2014 club option.
Worst. Signing. Ever.
ubelmann
Faint praise, sure, but not that long ago, more than one team was clamoring to sign Zito to a ridiculous contract. I don't think Livan's stuff is great by any means, but it seems passable for a 5th starter. At the beginning of the year, I was so scared by the low-80s fastball that I thought it was Lima Time. Now, though, I think we can avoid Lima Time. (Of course, there I go again, damning with faint praise. I guess I lost my doom and gloom somewhere.)
twayn
Does the comments column here appear narrower than usual to anybody else?
Also, I like the storyline in tonight's matchup. The wiley reborn veteran trying to get it done with guile and grit against the young phenom with so much promise they wouldn't even consider including him in a trade for the best left-handed pitcher in baseball. Let's hope the Twins offense is on tonight, we'll probably need every run we can squeeze out of our lineup. And I'm hoping Livan has enough magic in his bag of tricks to pull this one off.
meat
And I'm hoping Livan has enough magic in his bag of tricks to pull this one off.
So am I, as this will be the first time I see theTwins play baseball on the toob. Almost the same as being there. Without Dazz-L and Gordo I may not go home insane, but possibly drunk for the game is on at my favorite bar.
Heres to Livan la Vida Loca
Rhubarb_Runner
Hey twayn, post a good-sized image, and it'll give you a wider comment section.
twayn
No worries, it was fixed by the time I got home from work.
davidwatts
Lineups: (changes in bold)
Boston
C. Crisp cf
D. Pedroia 2b
D. Ortiz dh
M. Ramirez lf
M. Lowell 3b
J.D. Drew rf
J. Varitek c
S. Casey 1b
A. Cora ss
Minnesota
C. Gomez cf
B. Harris 2b
J. Mauer c
J. Morneau 1b
M. Cuddyer rf
C. Monroe dh
D. Young lf
M. Lamb 3b
A. Everett ss
Boston
C. Buchholz
Minnesota
L. Hernandez
greenmachine
And the day has come when "C. Monroe dh" is no longer bolded. Sigh. Kubes, buddy, why haven't you gotten more hits?
E-6
Dude looks like a lady at the plate, of late.
brianS
watch it, Mister.
twayn
+1 big ten inch (record).
ubelmann
I still don't like Monroe hitting against good RHP. Tim Wakefield is one thing, but I don't like Monroe's chances with Buchholz's 92mph heat.
Kubel's been mostly bad this year, but also a bit unlucky. Oh well, whatever.
socaltwinsfan
Kubel has been real bad other than a handful of home runs (mostly in the first two weeks). His IsoD is .016. Both Young and GoGo have more walks than the Dude. Sometimes you need to create your own luck.
ubelmann
Like I said, Kubel's been bad, but he's also been somewhat unlucky. His PrOPS is higher than his OPS by about 80 points.
brianS
Black Jack: Livan, "like it or not" is the "ace of this staff". Yee gods.
ubelmann
I'm going to go with "or not."
twayn
Pixie vests for the Twins tonight.
twayn
ESPN or FSN? Decisions, decisions.
twayn
I was afraid of this.
E-6
Well, that's disappointing.
brianS
what is that hissing sound I hear? Sounds like...air leaking from a balloon??
E-6
Anyone else smell gas?
greenmachine
Oh boy. Bass may have another opportunity to stay #5 on the hungry hippos table.
ubelmann
Uh oh.
New Guy
Well this is a dubious start to the game.
twayn
twayn
BTW, my daughter turned me on to this band. And I like the logo. It matches my shirt.
davidwatts
are they a rock band?
brianS
Heavy Metal.
twayn
More power pop, actually. They've got some samples on their website, worth checking out.
brianS
joak, twayn. I has joak.
twayn
Ah, the logo. More like heavy water, then?
brianS
well, I suppose, if they specialize in, say, slowed-down versions of speed metal songs.
twayn
Sweet. Two runs back. Retaliate, boys, retaliate.
greenmachine
EXTERMINATE EXTERMINATE
Rhubarb_Runner
greenmachine's a dalek?!
brianS
w00t. Two more singles and the game is tied.
ubelmann
I'm glad Carlos Delgado's agent doesn't bother commenting here.
davidwatts
'so is your mom'
BWHAHAHA. classy
New Guy
Jeez, Delmon... just, I mean, jeez...
twayn
Self defense out by Livan.
New Guy
I liked how he spiked the ball afterwards. He can still get fired up!
greenmachine
Gordo almost chucked his cookies, must have been mildly alarming.
E-6
Gordo flinched.
ubelmann
Well, the second course tasted better than the first course, anyway.
twayn
Interesting. ESPN is sucking up the ad revenue on this game. On ESPN, you can see display ads behind home plate. On FSN you just see the green chroma key screen.
ubelmann
Walking Lamb seems like a bad strategy.
ubelmann
I guess he just did it to clog up the bases. Sheesh.
ubelmann
Delmon Young fun fact: He has gone 61 AB and 67 PA without an extra base hit of any kind.
twayn
We have very different ideas of fun.
New Guy
I know I said at the beginning that I was going to harp on Delmon continually and blame him for everything, but it's not very fun when he's actually this bad. I wanted to do it in a lighthearted cajoling way, like with Kubel. Not in a derogatory spiteful way, like with Punto.
brianS
just tell Kubel that you can't quit him.
New Guy
Man these ESPN clowns are hilarious.
LOL TWINS FANS ONLY LIKE MAUER AND MORNEAU LOL
ubelmann
More like:
LOL WE DON"T KNOW ANYONE ELSE ON THIS TEAM LET"S TALK ABOUT MAUER AND MORNEAU SOME MORE LOL
brianS
Livan is trying to tire them out with all the running from base to base.
ubelmann
Jason Tyner fun fact: Longest streak without an extra-base hit of any kind in 2007: ~40 AB and 45 PA.
davidwatts
So what you are saying is that Delmon is not even a good singles hitter
ubelmann
Some good wriggling by Livan in the 3rd to work off those calories he put on in the 1st.
New Guy
I envision a Morneau blast right here.
New Guy
Eh, I'll take the base hit.
ubelmann
Justin Morneau fun fact: 35 PA and 33 AB since his last extra-base hit.
davidwatts
you are full of funness tonight!
ubelmann
Delmon Young fun fact: 43% first pitch swinging this year, which is the lowest mark in his career, down from 52% last year and 64% in 2006. This is patient Delmon.
Rhubarb_Runner
rally time. me likes
brianS
whaat? Sox dumped Tavarez today???
ubelmann
Who is going to be Manny's PR guy now?
E-6
Singles Night at the Dome.
twayn
Cuddy says, "Show me that curve one more time, meat."
E-6
That's kind of a crude pick-up line...
brianS
Cuddy delivers
greenmachine
The old guy's hittable 'cuz he's got slow stuff
The young guy's hittable 'cuz he doesn't have his major league game on quite yet.
Let's see if we can pull this off.
New Guy
Bases loaded for Delmon.
Run expectancy: 0.1
greenmachine
Monroe, decided on a 2 BB game after his 2 HR game.
twayn
I'd like to see Delmon take the first pitch here.
brianS
what did you say about first pitches, ubes?
ubelmann
It used to be even worse. Just try to fathom that!
brianS
Good gawd, that's awful.
greenmachine
Sigh. Well, we have the lead.
Rhubarb_Runner
major RISP for Lamb, and he comes up empty!
twayn
Dinner time. Simple fare tonight, big salad and Land O' Lakes grilled cheese sandwich.
Andrew
Hamburger, mashed pototoes, and peas all mixed together.
Dread Pirate Will Young
grilled white american cheese and salami with sun chips and now a peanut butter cookie ice cream sundae
brianS
ahhhh, I haven't thought about it yet.
Prolly pasta with pesto.
cheaptoy
We went with spaghetti and meatballs.
That means meatball sandwhiches tomorrow. \m/
New Guy
Day old pizza and month old Sprite.
Ugh, did I really just type that? I need to make some adjustments to my lifestyle.
twayn
Daughter the Younger made brownies, but they're still cooling. Should be ready to cut by the 7th inning stretch.
brianS
Andrew: call it Shepherd's Pie and we'll be more impressed.
Andrew
It's a pseudo-Shepherd's Pie. It's not so much layered as all dumped into a pot and stirred up. And there's no gravy involved.
brianS
like your stomach -- or WE -- would have known the difference.
shepherd's pie rocks.
Andrew
shepherd's pie rocks.
Aye, that it does, that it does.
cheaptoy
twayn
I'm partial to Bangers and Mash, too.
Andrew
When we were in Spain, Adam wanted to order Bangers and Mash, but he didn't know what it was. I didn't either, except I remembered Tobias' turn as Mrs. Featherbottom where he offers the Bluth's a "banger in the mouth" for breakfast. Arrested Development saves the day.
Rhubarb_Runner
Re-heated Little Caesar's pepperoni. Solid supper for a tired tiler.
E-6
Are you tiling the entire house, Rhu_Ru, or are you just slow.
New Guy
Okay I know he isn't very good and all, but damned if Livan hasn't become one of my favorite players.
Dread Pirate Will Young
No shame in that says the man who with the mancrush on Matt LeCroy
twayn
"Isn't very good" is relative. Results are what count, and so far Livan is getting them.
twayn
Conversely, Delmon is not getting them.
greenmachine
Delmon needs a day or two off. I wanna see Kubel back in left field.
socaltwinsfan
So you want to replace the guy hitting .271/.315/.307 with a guy hitting .222/.238/.359? Really? Couldn't we just let Monroe play LF and let Tolbert DH?
brianS
The lineup lacks Dudeness.
ubelmann
Kubel will improve, just as Delmon will improve. 117 AB shouldn't be enough to totally change our opinion of Kubel. I thought he'd be about a league average hitter this year, and given his recent performace, I'd adjust that down some, but he's going to be a lot closer to a 95 or 100 OPS+ than a 66 OPS+ going forward.
Morneau hit .222/.305/.335 over 203 AB to end the season last year, yet so far this season he's managed to hit a lot closer to his career averages than his previous 203 AB.
It seems to be rather easy to lose the forest for the trees at this point in the season.
Andrew
Hello, my name is Andrew, and I'm a Lew Ford fan.
twayn
Admitting you have a problem is the first step toward recovery.
New Guy
You mean... you mean it's okay that I like Livan Hernandez?
Does this mean I can finally come clean about cheering for Dustan Mohr back in the day?
SBG