2008 Game 42: Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies
Posted by ubelmann on Saturday, May 17th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Livan Hernandez vs. Greg Reynolds
Reaching the quarter pole probably deserves some sort of recap, but I don't know that we've especially learned anything about this team so far that I haven't already beaten to death.
The offense has scored 179 runs--good for 8th in the AL--but they are 12th in OPS. They are good at some non-OPS things on offense--namely they have pretty good speed and can steal some bases (more or less there are no "base cloggers" on the roster), but they don't have a huge edge on the rest of the league in that either. They are 3rd in the AL in stolen bases and 3rd in the AL in SB%. Maybe that has something to do with their performance with RISP (baserunners distracting the pitcher and all that), but then again Tampa, Boston, and LA are all running basically as much and they haven't shown any great ability to hit with RISP.
The Twins have also been pretty unspectacular at run prevention. 182 runs allowed is just 9th-best in the league. The Hardball Times has the defense at 7 runs below average so far--10th best in the league--and that doesn't seem especially surprising. Actually, I'm maybe a bit surprised it's that high at all. Adam Everett is way below 100%, and without his arm, he's nothing special on defense. With his health problems, the only guys on the team that I am definitely convinced are above average are Carlos Gomez, Nick Punto, and Joe Mauer.
The Twins' FIP so far is 4.36, good for just 11th in the AL (ahead of Baltimore, Texas, and Detroit.) Losing Neshek hurts, getting Slowey and/or Baker back could definitely help.
Still, an unspectacular offense and an unspectacular run prevention unit have added up to essentially a .500 team so far. Considering that they just underwent a massive rebuilding project, they've been a really watchable team. If the Tigers and Indians keep falling all over themselves, I won't mind that, either.
Hmmm...I guess I still haven't said anything about the Rox so far this series. Looks like they've allowed the 2nd-most runs (222) in the NL so far and scored the 12th-most (178.) Their team OPS suggests that their offense will improve, and their team FIP (and defensive ratings) suggest that their run prevention will improve, but this sure doesn't seem like a WS contender from where I sit--especially considering that they are an amazing 12 games behind the D-Backs already. 12!
Last but not least, PECOTA sees Greg Reynolds as an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Overall, Chien-Ming Wang is probably a good comparable--not a ton of strikeouts, not especially great at limiting walks, but won't allow many XBH and will induce a lot of DPs when he does allow runners to reach.
Lineups. No Carlos tonight. so a bit of a different order.
Minnesota
B. Harris 2b
M. Lamb 3b
J. Mauer c
J. Morneau 1b
M. Cuddyer rf
C. Monroe cf
D. Young lf
A. Everett ss
L. Hernandez p
Colorado
W. Taveras cf
C. Barmes ss
M. Holliday lf
T. Helton 1b
G. Atkins 3b
B. Hawpe rf
J. Baker 2b
Y. Torrealba c
G. Reynolds p
What's the word on Go-go's health?
Sore wrist.
He's available to pinch run tonight, but he's not sure if he will play tomorrow either.
LEN III is reporting a sore wrist. Gomez says he can pinch run if needed
Mike Lamb...hitting second... ... ... second? ... ... can't we just have Livan hit there?
But he's on a hot streak! Over his last seven games, he's batting .304!
Not according to Baseball Reference. Lamb's last seven games.
It's now over halfway through May and he has zero extra bases. Woo hoo.
You're right. I mean last eight games. I'm a pastor and a lawyer, not a statistician.
maybe it will jump start his hitting
We should note that as the Twins start this game, they're tied for first place.
Wow! Tough loss for the Tribe. Has Kobayashi taken the closer spot from Rafael Betancourt? Their bullpen is a mess.
We've got Harris leading off and we're complaining about Lamb batting second? Harris is batting .146/.241/.229 over his last 14 games. Nice time for Tolbert and Punto to get hurt. Where's Howie?
Well, at least we don't have to worry too much about Mauer hitting into any DP's tonight.
Has it really come to this? We're upset because Nick Punto isn't available?
I can't believe I feel this way, but I want Punto playing shortstop on a regular basis.
Honestly, I could not care less what Harris is hitting over his last 14 games or what Lamb is hitting over his last 8 games. Those numbers are worthless when it comes to filling out today's lineup.
With Harris, there's at least reason to believe he can hit. Lamb's upside at this point is a left-handed Mike Redmond. Which, for a third baseman, or a #2 hitter, is awful.
Also, Redmond probably plays third base better than Lamb.
Move
Joe MauerMike Redmond to third!I agree. I was just kidding about Lamb's last seven/eight games. I thought the exclamation points would show that, but I guess I should have used a smiley face.
Even with the wonky lineup, I have a good feeling about this game. I predict that we win in a blowout, 8-2.
Living Livan Loca!
Well, that didn't take long.
Neither did that.
I dug out 11 bushes out of the yard today. Wow, are my arms beat up.
A little rally (courtesy of Atkins) going here in the second.
I was listening to KFAN this morning for some reason and the guy doing the news called Mr. Young Dell-MON.
Again, please no "Mr. Young" or just "Young" when referring to our LF. I don't like having my performance insulted in that way.
I'm gonna start calling you WillMon if you don't put up some better blogging numbers, Mr. Young.
Delmon didn't use any of the field that time.
Pfft.
Very well put.
Twins can't score when given five outs in an inning. Anyone else wishing Livan was batting eighth there?
Going into today, Todd Helton has hit .485/.557/.758 off of Livan over 79 PA. 79 matchups, and Livan has 3 strikeouts to show for it.
The only current hitter that Livan has faced more is Juan Pierre (94 PA), and Pierre has hit just .271/.319/.294 against Livan.
So you're saying Pierre turns into 2008 Delmon Young against Livan?
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Nice. Though, Juan Pierre in general isn't that far from 2008 Delmon.
Sad but true...
.485/.557/.758
crazy
Yeah, any time someone has a matchup like that, I am reminded of Jim Thome and Rick Reed.
oh man, nightmares!
See? That's why Lamb's hitting second.
These Rockies announcers seem already to have forgotten that there is a game on.
Radio or TV? I've always kind of liked the radio guys.
TV. Overall, they seem like pretty typical announcers. I wouldn't say they are especially bad. Apparently, I'm just not a very big fan of most announcers, for whatever reason. Maybe I'm just a defective viewer.
I have caught a few Rockies games, and dont really mind thier announcers. George Frazier is the color guy, and he tells some great stories from back in the day
It does seem like he has some good stories, it just seems like he's letting the stories get in the way of the game so far today, anyway. Could just be a bad day.
According to Jack and Gordo, the news on Tolbert is not good.
The TV guys hinted at that at one point, but then Bert gave his opinion on the matter so there was no follow-up.
Now FSN is talking about it again, there are torn ligaments, Gardy expects a much longer recovery time.
I went to El Duque's baseball reference page, and I found the sponsor's message at the top pretty amusing:
In the same vein, I guess that if Livan could escape from Castro, pitching with a sub-85-mph fastball should be no problem.
I still think a twenty-inning scoreless tie would be fun.
the Rockies are letting Livan be real efficent with his pitches tongiht
Four full and one hit on the board? They must have turned up the humidor tonight.
I miss steroids
Yeah, those were the days.
Livan with a hit!
Me thinks the Twins brought in all these lousy middle infielders so we can learn to appreciate Punto.
You're getting Nick Punto, and you'll like it!
Morneau's all about breaking up the DP today.
Pretty good jump by Cuddyer.
Jack Morris jinxed that
IIRC, when Morris pitched his own no-hitter, he was jawing at some fans near the dugout about how he had a no-hitter in progress. So he probably doesn't believe in that particular superstition.
Cuddyer is now Oh for his last Twelve
It's always the .212 guy that breaks these things up
I guess the only way we're going to score some runs tonight is if we spot them a run first
gahhhh
rally time!
SQUEEZE!
I love the squeeze play. Trading an out for a base isn't too exciting unless that base is home plate.
I'm at my Mom's in Brainerd tonight, working on her computer. Looks like the Twins are, well, they're leading. We'll just leave it at that.
ROX announcer: "That tells me probably hit and run."
Really? So when Lamb throws the bat at a pitch-out, you think that maybe there was a hit-and-run on?
My 8:36 post was kind of prophetic, wouldn't you say?
I'm still chuckling at the I miss steroids comment earlier. Nice work, Guppy.
It's not even the 8th inning yet, and I'm missing the easy button already. Still, a 2-1 lead is better than I was expecting.
but the way Livan has been pitching tonight, why not send him out for another inning
I'll always feel better about having Neshek in the 8th than having Livan, no matter how well Livan is throwing.
I am an idiot
Loved your book.
The double past Lamb and the single over Cuddyer were both definitely well-struck balls, but I think that there are some fielders who could have made those plays.
Agreed. I think defensive range was the difference in this ballgame. Twins hit a lot of balls pretty well, or in pretty good spots that were still turned into outs, and the Twins didn't, obviously.
That could've been a lot worse, all things considered. Time for the middle of the order to put us back in the lead.
I thought the 3-1 pitch on Mauer looked like ball 4.
I wonder if Torrealba is trying to explain to Herges how embarrassing it was when Cuddyer stole off of him earlier in the game.
Hernandez has pitched a hell of a game, but they've figured him out and it's time for him to come out.
could use a strikeout here. But with Livan on the mound im not holding my breath
They're just not going to listen to me. Doesn't Gardy have a laptop in the dugout tuned to this blog?
Jeez, 3 runs and 8 hits in the last 2 1/3 innings for LH, for the love of Pete get him the hell out of there
Red Dog tries to flash dink. Gets caught.
I'm here. Human Rally Cap. Do your thing, Brendan!
whew. RISP, Lamb up. Kebob time!
A Lambic would taste good here...
Fuentes could throw some wild yeast up there.
crax. roasted, with mint sauce.
Mutton.
Lamb now 1-for-19 against lefties with no walks. I guess his struggles to hit lefties trumps his clutchability.
try to win tommorrow