There are some folks who believe that the world is black and white, good and bad. There is no in between. "This is good," they announce, "and that is bad." They put everything into one of those two categories. It's a simplistic (but easy) world-view which most of us avoid.

And then there are those who see the opposite - absolutely no black or white, but merely varying shades of gray. To them, there is no good or bad - just stuff in between. One thing could be more or less desirable than another, but there are no absolutes, no limits in their world-view. Such an outlook is also conveniently easy.

What I (and perhaps others as well) have trouble dealing with is the realization that it's both of the above. Yes, there is black and white, but yes, there are also about a million shades of gray in between. There ARE lines between acceptable and not acceptable - sometimes they are hazy or indistinct or even changing, but they're there.

I mean, if I was saying that Boof is clearly way better than Perkins, I would be making the same mistake as I would by saying that Boof is clearly awful and obviously should be taken out of the starting rotation. Over short periods of time it's easy for two players to look significantly different from each other when the difference going forward really isn't all that big.

The state of rhetoric in sports media these days (or maybe this is the way it is everywhere and the way that it has always been throughout time) is that there has to be an absolutely right way and an absolutely wrong way, and that the difference between the two choices is the difference between a great success and a major catastophe, when usually the truth is much more nuanced and much less exciting.

Healthwise, it was still a good idea for Boof to lose the pounds, but I just think that there was little chance he was going to see any sort of benefit in his performance as the result of losing weight.

I'm sure it's true to a certain extent that XBH go down against GB pitchers, but if GB pitchers in general showed that big of a dip in SLG, GB pitchers would be the only pitchers left employed in baseball.

Judging by Kubel's sOPS+ last year, which was 62, he was way, way below league average against GB pitchers. And while that was a somewhat extreme season for him, this year his sOPS+ against GB pitchers is 70, so he's still doing a lot worse than league average against GB pitchers. If I had to guess, I would guess that no one else on the team shows such an extreme split. (Morneau, for instance, shows a drop (115 to 93, but nothing like Kubel's.) Cuddyer shows basically even power splits vs. FB and GB, with a much higher OBP vs. GB.

I tried to think of a good example of a low ball hitter who might excel in power against GB pitchers, but at the moment all I could think of was Gary Sheffield, and his career splits are basically even against FB and GB.

assume Kubel's average XBH is a triple, independent of pitcher type. Since a triple is worth 3X the SLG as a single, it follows that his SLG goes up against a GB pitcher relative to the fly-ball pitcher if his increase in singles rate is greater than 1/3 the decrease in his XBH rate.

so, if his singles rate is 30 pts higher but his XBH rate is 10 pts lower, the effect on SLG is a wash.

*waits for GH to check his math*

for his career, here are Kubel's splits by pitcher type:

265/336/445 Fly ball (9 2bs, 0 3bs, 9 HRs)
265/311/444 avg (21, 3, 16)
249/296/361 Ground ball (16, 0, 4)

apparently, Kubel's XBH distribution is NOT constant across pitcher types. Which makes some sense. When a GB pitcher makes a mistake up, it can go a long way. But a Fly ball pitcher makes his living with high pitches. More opportunities for the batter to beat the pitcher with a ball up in the zone.

and given his knee injury, I'm not surprised that his BA is lower against GB pitchers. He had at least a whole year where he wasn't gonna beat out any grounders deep in the hole. For his career, he is hitting 039/039/039 on balls to the infield; 546/534/901 on balls to the outfield, 205/205/208 on ground balls, 271/262/700 on fly balls, 691/691/926 on line drives. And he's never had a bunt hit.

compare to mauer:
286/372/413 FB
323/402/479 avg
320/403/429 GB
070/070/070 to infield
600/587/891 to outfield
243/243/251 ground balls
281/269/672 fly balls
713/713/943 line drives

1.10
(a) The bat shall be a smooth, round stick not more than 23/4 inches in diameter at the thickest part and not more than 42 inches in length. The bat shall be one piece of solid wood.
NOTE: No laminated or experimental bats shall be used in a professional game (either championship season or exhibition games) until the manufacturer has secured approval from the Rules Committee of his design and methods of manufacture.
(b) Cupped Bats. An indentation in the end of the bat up to one inch in depth is permitted and may be no wider than two inches and no less than one inch in diameter. The indentation must be curved with no foreign substance added.
(c) The bat handle, for not more than 18 inches from its end, may be covered or treated with any material or substance to improve the grip. Any such material or substance, which extends past the 18 inch limitation, shall cause the bat to be removed from the game.
NOTE: If the umpire discovers that the bat does not conform to (c) above until a time during or after which the bat has been used in play, it shall not be grounds for declaring the batter out, or ejected from the game.
(d) No colored bat may be used in a professional game unless approved by the Rules Committee.

bats can be narrower at the barrel than the standard, but not wider.

And the fact that he says someone who I have never seen bunt is as good a bunter as anyone, wow, just wow.

Reusse: Where's Redmond hitting, eighth?
Gardy: No, we're going to hit him third.
SBG: Quel surprise!

GARDY AND PRESIDENT BUSH: TWO PEAS IN A POD.

Why in the world when there are runners at first and second and nobody out, does the manager not bunt them to third? the score was tied, we only needed one run and a hit to the outfield would have scored it after a sacrifice. Sure, Morneau was at the plate, but he can bunt just as well as anybody else (probably better since he uses a larger, heavier bat). What a lame-brained idea to let the hitter hit away in this situation. Come on Gardy, take control of your gaggle!
posted by greig on Jun. 1, 08 at 7:11 AM |
0 of 2 people liked this comment. Do you?

I love the Bush tie in and the 'larger, heavier bat."