Game 57: New York at Minnesota

Andy Pettite vs. Livan Hernandez

Livan has been a totally wacky pitcher so far this year. With 24 K's, 13 BB's, and 1 HBP, 89% of the hitters who have faced Livan Hernandez have put the ball in play. The major league average is for 74% of hitters to put the ball in play. Even Nick Blackburn, who is something of a Carlos Silva clone, has only 81% of plate appearances end with a ball in play. There might be a couple of others near 89%, but the only other one I can find without doing an exhaustive search is Carlos Silva's 89% in 2005--when he set the modern record for fewest walks in a season (9).

Livan's had his best GB% since 2004, but his 20.9% LD% is worse than the league average of 18% line drives per ball in play.

Livan's 2.7 K/G is really, really low. How low? From 2004-2007, no qualified pitcher in the AL had lower than 3.3 K/G in a season. Not Carlos Silva, not Chien-Ming Wang, not '05 LimaTime (3.9 K/G.) Only one NL pitcher had a K/G that low--the immortal Kirk Reuter in 2004.

Livan's 1.5 BB/G is also extremely low, and much lower than it's ever been in his career. In the recent past ('04-'07), Livan's best BB/G rate was 3.0. [I had initially been thinking that he was bound to give up a bunch of walks to the Yankees, but the Yankees are 10th in the AL, only barely ahead of the Twins, in walks. So that might not be the biggest problem in the world.]

When you add it all together, he's got a 4.63 xFIP (which almost exactly matches his 4.60 ERA so far) and is a fair bit below the league average of 4.07 this year. It's been a strange trip so far, but Livan might be able to keep it up. (I still wouldn't bet on it, though.)

With three short starts and some extra innings over the last few days, we could really use a long start out of Livan today. So he might wind up throwing until his arm falls off today, even if he's getting pounded. I would love for him to keep the team in the game, though.

Roger Clemens' HGH BFF Andy Pettite will be pitching for the Yankees today. He's been really quite good so far this year, with a league average-ish strikeout rate and about a walk per nine innings better than league average, while inducing a ton of ground balls.

The odds are definitely stacked against the hometown nine today.

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