I Fall For It Every Year
Posted by ubelmann on Monday, June 2nd, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Every year, I decide that it's not worth caring about the All-Star vote--voters just clearly value players differently than I do, so whatever. But I looked at the current voting totals, and I just can't help but comment.
If the polls closed today, this would be the AL All-Star team:
C -- Varitek, Red Sox
1B -- Youkilis, Red Sox
2B -- Pedroia, Red Sox
SS -- Jeter, Yankees
3B -- Rodriguez, Yankees
LF -- Ramirez, Red Sox
CF -- Ichiro, Mariners
RF -- Hamilton, Rangers
DH -- Ortiz, Red Sox
At that rate, we might as well just let the Yankees and the Red Sox represent the AL and give everyone else a 3-day break. I might just prefer that anyway.
Obviously, there's the question of whether or not the Yankees and Red Sox deserve to have those spots, and I think a lot of them are deserved. Morneau is right up there with Youkilis, but Youkilis is clearly the better defender so Youkilis is a reasonable choice.
Pedroia is a defensible choice over Kinsler, though Brian Roberts might deserve the spot the most. (Not that that really matters, because Roberts is in 5th and Robinson Cano--with a -6.7 VORP so far this season--is second in the voting.)
As much as I detest Jeter, iron glove and all, there aren't any candidates obviously better than him. SS is a really weak position in the AL in general, no one has distinguished himself above Jeter this year, and Jeter led the league in VORP last year.
A-Rod's been hurt for a bunch of this year, but still leads the league in VORP at 3B. And last year, he had nearly twice Mike Lowell's VORP--and Mike Lowell was the second-best 3B in the league last year. (A-Rod's 96.6 VORP last year was nearly as much as Mike Lowell's 46.6 VORP and Justin Morneau's 52 VORP from his 2006 "MVP" campaign combined. And last year, A-Rod was probably about 12-13 wins better than Nick Punto.) So A-Rod's the clear choice at 3B, and Lowell is actually a defensible second choice.
I don't really have a problem with Manny in the OF. Yeah, his defense is awful, but his bat is great and the only LF who has especially distinguished himself offensively this year (Carlos Quentin) is also really bad defensively. And Manny's got a track record, which I put in his favor.
Josh Hamilton was really good last year and has been awesome this year, so I also have no problem with putting him in the AL OF. You could make a case for Grady Sizemore, B.J. Upton, or maybe even Jacoby Ellsbury over Ichiro, but Ichiro had a better season than all three of those guys last year, so I don't know that they've done so much this year to distinguish themselves from Ichiro. You could maybe make a case for putting Magglio Ordonez in the OF, but I probably wouldn't.
Milton Bradley and Hideki Matsui have both been more valuable than David Ortiz at DH so far this year, but I can't really fault the voters for giving Ortiz the nod. (Though if Ortiz was hurt, it would seem to make more sense to shift Manny to DH and put someone like Magglio Ordonez in the vacated corner spot--which is absolutely what you would do if you were really trying to win the game and Ortiz was hurt--but we all know this is an exhibition and not a game that anyone's trying all that hard to win anyway.)
Of course, I think it's disgusting that Varitek has more votes than Mauer. It's been a matter of years since Varitek was a better player than Mauer. Even then, Mauer probably needs to get hot again, plus hit a couple of home runs, or do something else noteworthy to get enough press to pass Varitek.
Had he been healthy, Posada would have been a better candidate than Varitek, but Posada's been hurt. Victor Martinez is probably even worse defensively than Varitek, and though he was great last year, has barely been above replacement level last year. Ivan Rodriguez is a shell of what he used to be. Miguel Olivo's had a good year (relative to what is a pretty weak field of catchers thus far), but is Miguel Olivo really an All-Star?
Anyway, looking at the field, catcher is the only position that I have strong objections to. So really, I'm forced to admit that even though I hate it, there should probably be 6 Yankees/Red Sox in the starting 9. Perhaps this should not be surprising, since they have gigantic payrolls that make it impossible for lower budget teams to even consider signing some of their players. Hooray for parity.


My expectations of the voters is so low that I was just happy to see Josh Hamilton getting some votes.
And last year, A-Rod was probably about 12-13 wins better than Nick Punto.
So, in other words, even A-Rod wasn't enough to overcome the craptastic problems we had besides Punto.
Actually, I thought the same thing, but then, well, check it out:
79 wins + 12 wins from A-Rod = 91 wins -- Minnesota Twins '07
And because this is a zero-sum game and there are not two A-Rods:
94 wins - 5 wins (at least) from No-Rod = 89 wins -- NYY '07
Presenting your 2007 AL Wild Card team: the MInnesota Twins + Alex Rodriguez.
Please -- the 2007 AL Wild Card team: the Minnesota Twins + Alex Rodriguez - Nick Punto
Because it's important.
This is interesting because I know a number of Yankee fans who claim that A-rod is sooooooooooo overrated, not Derek Jeter, a choker, a bum, worthless and overpriced.
If I had a nickel for every time I've heard that Jeter is god's gift to baseball, and that A-Rod is a bum I'd be a rich man. As it turns out I am not a rich man and A-rod doesn't suck, at least at playing baseball.
If Bud Selig says there is parity, then there is parity, dammit!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is incredibly depressing that the entire starting team could legitimately be BOS/NYY players outside of one position. All in a year where neither is leading the AL East...
It's been a matter of years since Varitek was a better player than Mauer
by WARP3 standards, it has been since 2004. When Mauer played 35 games as a rookie.
Pedroia is a defensible choice over Kinsler, though Brian Roberts might deserve the spot the most.
This struck me as a curious statement. I don't watch any Boston games, so Pedroia might very well be the second coming of Bill Mazeroski and I wouldn't know it, but even then, it would still seem like he's got a ton of ground to make up on Kinsler (36 points of OBP and 64 points of SLG worth of ground). More importantly, Pedroia's OPS+ is 31 points lower than Kinsler's. I know Arlington has a rep, but still, that's a pretty healthy gap at a position where any extra offense is a pretty big deal. When you mix in Kinsler's superior baserunning (15 SB with a 100% success rate) it seems like he's the better player this year, barring him playing defense on the Jorge Cantu sub-level. I'd wager that, at this point, Kinsler's more valuable to Texas than Pedroia is to Boston, but that might be pushing things too far.
If Ichiro and Manny are getting "lifetime achievement" nods, Kinsler probably should get it over Pedroia.
Pedroia was better than Kinsler last year (by about 8 runs in VORP), and I think it's possible that he has a significant edge in Kinsler in defense. If you're looking at their careers before this year, PECOTA has them basically dead even in projected VORP. Kinsler's been better than Pedroia so far this year by about 12 runs in VORP, but if they regress to their mean for the rest of the year, Kinsler will probably only finish the year about 12 VORP ahead of Pedroia, making them essentially even on VORP over the last two years.
I'm not saying I would necessarily vote Pedroia (I might even go with Brian Roberts), but I think there's a defensible case there.
It's nice to see the Twins are 5-3 against those teams of All-Stars. Of course, it will be interesting to see what pitchers make the All-Star team. Rivera and Dice-K for sure at this point. I'll actually be cheering for Cliff Lee through June and into July to make sure he starts the AS Game instead of Dice-K.
Dice-K's been ridiculously lucky so far this season. His peripherals are worse than Boof's and Livan's. I'd rather see Beckett on the All-Star team than Dice-K. Things that won't hold up:
.233 BABIP against
80.6% LOB%
5.9% HR/FB
At this point, I'd put Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay in contention for the starting spot.