Juan Rincon, Sunk Cost

I sort of talked about this before, but having put some more thought into the matter, the answer to the Twins' roster crunch right now is really quite easy: designate Juan Rincon for assignment. (Though I'm certainly not the first person to take this position. Howard Sinker, for instance, has recently written about this same thing.)

Without having done a comprehensive survey, I think I'm about as patient as anyone when it comes to evaluating relief pitchers. I was even in J.C. Romero's corner back in 2004 when the Twins demoted him to Rochester.

But man, Juan Rincon is done. Remember those days when he was one of the best relief pitchers in the league? Those days are gone and they are just not coming back.

Rincon's strikeout rate over the last five seasons:
12.6 K/G -- 2004
10.1 K/G -- 2005
8.0 K/G -- 2006
7.0 K/G -- 2007
6.0 K/G -- 2008

Rincon's walk rate over the last five seasons:
3.8 BB/G -- 2004
3.6 BB/G -- 2005
2.9 BB/G -- 2006
4.0 BB/G -- 2007
5.0 BB/G -- 2008

Rincon's GB% over the last five seasons:
44.3% GB% -- 2004
47.7% GB% -- 2005
50.9% GB% -- 2006
48.7% GB% -- 2007
37.7% GB% -- 2008

Rincon's fastball speed over the last four seasons:
94.1 mph -- 2005
93.0 mph -- 2006
93.9 mph -- 2007
91.5 mph -- 2008

So far this season, there's absolutely nothing to like about Rincon. He's not missing bats, he's not throwing strikes, he's not getting ground balls, and his velocity is down. Further, we even have a reason to believe that Rincon shouldn't be as good today as he was four or five years ago.

Loyalty is an admirable thing, but sometimes you just need to move on. Rincon is nothing special at this point and his 2008 salary is a sunk cost. If we lose Rincon on waivers, there will be someone like Craig Breslow or Cha Seung Baek who will pop up on waivers later in the season, or we have guys like Bobby Korecky or one of our fringe starters or maybe even Tim Lahey as internal options.

Maybe Rincon will suddenly turn it around. Maybe Mike Lamb will hit 60 home runs this year. I'm not holding my breath, though. The Twins really ought to just man up and take the risk that Rincon is done, because it's really not much of a risk.

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