Draft Day 1 Thread

June 5th, 2008 by ubelmann

The key to a successful drafting strategy is simple to state, but difficult to execute:

Draft the best available player that you can sign.

Don't worry about position. Really. Don't worry about position.

If the Twins happen to have 5 major league average centerfielders in 2010 or 2012 or whenever, then someone is going to need a centerfielder and they can trade to balance the roster. If the Twins happen to have 10 major league caliber starting pitchers in 2010 or whenever, then they can look to trade to balance the roster.

It's hard enough to predict how the roster is going to shape up next year, between progress, regression, and injuries. Trying to predict the shape of the roster 4-5 (or more) years from now is folly.

And in the past, maybe it could have been said that the Twins are particularly deep in this or that, but I don't really think the Twins are so deep at any position in their farm system that they ought to pass over a player just because he plays a certain position. If he's going to be, overall, a more valuable player than anyone else available (and you can sign him), then you take him.

So I don't really have much of an opinion who the Twins should take today. They'll probably tend to lean towards pitching and defense, because that's what they tend to do, and that's probably okay.

An interesting wrinkle is that it sounds like the commish isn't really leaning on teams to follow the slot recommendations this year, since there were a few teams that were totally ignore the slotting edict, so it might be harder for guys with big bonus demands to drop to the second round or even the bottom of the first round.

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This entry was posted by ubelmann on Thursday, June 5th, 2008 at 7:30 am and is filed under MLB. It is one of 640 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.



Comments Feed183 Letters to the Editor

Rhubarb_Runner replied on June 5, 2008 at 9:05:37 am

You should be able to watch/listen to the draft from MLB's site here, or at least follow with their draft tracker.

socaltwinsfan replied on June 5, 2008 at 10:23:36 am

ESPN2 will be showing the first four hours of the draft.

socaltwinsfan replied on June 5, 2008 at 11:03:37 am

It looks like ESPN2 coverage won't begin until 2 p.m. EDT. How you start draft coverage two hours after the draft started is beyond me.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 11:05:20 am

Actually, that totally makes sense to me. The beginning of draft coverage is usually sooooo slow, with almost nothing going on. This way they already have a bunch of picks to talk about.

socaltwinsfan replied on June 5, 2008 at 11:14:27 am

Never mind. I was an hour off, so its only one hour late and the first hour is a special ceremony for the Negro Leagues, so ESPN2 coverage will begin when the actual draft begins.

 
 
 
 
 
Whiffers replied on June 5, 2008 at 9:29:46 am

From what I've read at BP, the slotting suggestions have been increased to more realistic levels, particularly at the top. Combined with the talent available, again solely on what I've read at BP, it sounds like the chances of a 'slot buster' situation like Porcello last year are slim.

My prediction for the Twins - a toolsy HS infielder or a collegiate pitcher with their early picks. Yes, I am really going out on a limb.

 
socaltwinsfan replied on June 5, 2008 at 10:50:16 am

MLB.com is reporting that the Rays will select HS SS Tim Beckham No. 1. I had seen several projections having them take FSU C Buster Posey.

Eric in Madison replied on June 5, 2008 at 11:57:30 am

Apparently Posey wants more money than Beckham, which tipped the scales. Posey now probably drops to 5 or 6.

I'm hoping one of the college bats falls to the Twins, (Alonso or Smoak), but that's really unlikely. I might take Brett Wallace (bad body college first baseman who can rake). He's been associated with Toronto at 17, but really isn't a Twins type player. They might take Lawrie (the Canadian prep infielder) if he's there, or Aaron Hicks (2 way CA HS player--pitcher/OF).

There was rumor that the Twins like Weeks if he's there at 27, but now it appears that the A's might take him as high as 12.

Obviously, you have to go BPA with the first 3 picks; I', just hoping the BPAs are bats. Must have bats...

 
 
bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 12:01:07 pm

Interesting blog by one of the front office guys for the Padres. I'd like to see more of this from the Twins front office.

bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 12:01:41 pm

uhh. actually post the link....

http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/

Moss replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:41:54 pm

He's well-known in the sabermetrics circles. He was an assistant to Billy Beane and plays a large role in the Moneyball story.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_DePodesta

 
 
 
bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:18:36 pm

Beckham goes to the Rays with the 1st pick.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:25:29 pm

Alvarez goes to Pittsburgh. Posey must have had pretty crazy bonus demands.

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:23:03 pm

OMG, they're actually allowing Bud Selig to announce the picks. Who thought that would be a good idea?

Jeff A replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:33:30 pm

The same people who thought making him commissioner was a good idea.

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:28:41 pm

KC picks Eric Hosmer--Kevin Goldstein had him going at #9 to the Nationals.

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:30:13 pm

Great idea trying to talk with the draft picks on the phone while other people in the room are shouting and yelling. That's why you're the Worldwide Leader.

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:39:33 pm

Posey finally goes to the Giants. Not terribly surprising, I guess, since the Giants have pretty deep pockets.

 
Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:40:16 pm

Giants take Posey and his big demands.

 
bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 1:40:38 pm

Posey falls to 5th pick and the Giants.

 
Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:03:08 pm

Any chance Smoak makes it to 14?

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:04:46 pm

I would guess that the A's would take Smoak (at 12) if he's available.

Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:07:18 pm

I'd be happy with him or Wallace I would think at this point.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:10:46 pm

I wouldn't necessarily mind Lawrie, either.

 
 
 
Eric in Madison replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:04:59 pm

no. Astros are going to pop him right...now

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:07:34 pm

Huh, Astros take a catcher. Apparently the next-best catcher in the draft is a lot worse. KG had him going to the Brewers. I kind of wonder if the Astros really long to replace Brad Ausmus.

bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:15:01 pm

Ausmus was supposed to be the backup catcher this year for Houston with JR Towles starting most games. But Towles is only hitting .145 and Ausmus has been getting more of the catching duties. I think Towles is going to be good, but he's not ready yet. Castro seems like good insurance in case Towles doesn't pan out. Plus Ausmus is probably done after this year.

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:11:30 pm

Rangers grab Smoak.

 
Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:11:35 pm

Smoak gone at 11.

 
Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:17:32 pm

Wow. Little Weeks at 12. I had seen rumors that the Twins might grab him at 27 or 31 so him going at 12 seems high.

 
bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:18:37 pm

Any speculation as to whom the Twins pick?

Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:20:35 pm

Wallace, college 3B.

Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:22:17 pm

Nope, he went at 13.

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:23:41 pm

Lawrie's still available and the Twins seemed to be impressed by him when he worked out with them.

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:22:24 pm

Cards grab Wallace and the Twins are now on the clock.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:23:04 pm

Holy crap, Wallace has gigantic thighs. It's pretty easy to see him getting way fat.

Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:24:33 pm

That's the type of analysis we have come to expect from Ubelmann.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:26:26 pm

As they say, size matters.

SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:17:30 pm

Goddammit, we're not selling jeans around here.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:21:54 pm

We might not be selling jeans, but we will be trying to catch the ball in the field. I'd rather find a DH by trading Dave Hollins to Seattle for a PTBNL than wasting a top 15 pick on one.

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SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:23:51 pm

forgot the /beane tag.

 
 
Moss replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:22:37 pm

Good stuff, SBG!

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Eric in Madison replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:26:52 pm

Friedrich, Hicks, or Lawrie?

Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:28:35 pm

None of the above. Aaron Hicks.

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:28:17 pm

Kevin Goldstein on Hicks:

10. Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
What He Is: An incredible athlete with first-round potential as both a pitcher and position player.
What He’s Not: Refined.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A power-pitching right-handed starter.
Backup Plan: Speedy switch-hitting center fielder.
Open Issues: Is he willing to pitch? The answer used to be a resounding ‘no,’ but that stance has softened of late.

Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:29:07 pm

Another speedy CF.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:31:33 pm

It sounds like he's said that he doesn't want to pitch, but I wonder if the Twins want to make him into a pitcher. Someone on the ESPN broadcast (Callis maybe?) said that Hicks would have gone 2-3 spots earlier if he was willing to commit as a pitcher. On the other hand, the Twins seem to favor refined pitchers over guys who can just throw really hard, so I don't know if he really fits their mold as a pitcher.

 
 
Whiffers replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:33:23 pm

More from Goldstein:

The most important thing I can point out here is that they announced him as an OUTFIELDER. If you dream on him, it's 60 power, 60 speed, 70+ arm.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:37:04 pm

Watching him at the plate, I can see where you would project some power. He certainly didn't look like a singles hitter.

 
 
socaltwinsfan replied on June 5, 2008 at 7:39:50 pm
davidwatts replied on June 5, 2008 at 8:01:25 pm

thanks for the link. nice story

 
 
 
Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:31:36 pm

In 4 years when the Twins have all the speedy CFs and all the other teams are forced to play Manny types (defensively) in CF, that will be fun.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:38:03 pm

I really loved those Jones-Hunter-Kielty outfields where almost nothing fell in.

 
 
Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:37:23 pm

That last post was pretty sarcastic, but looking at a couple mock drafts, Hicks was projected to be off the board before 14. So he could pretty easily have been the best player on the Twins board, and since they read Ubelmann's lead in to this post, they went with him. Especially with the number of picks they have, taking the best player on their board, especially one with a very high upside, was probably the right choice.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:42:00 pm

Yeah, obviously it's tough to say at this point, but if he can hit for some power, he might even make a good corner outfielder eventually.

 
 
bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:42:39 pm

This pick really suprises me. Almost as strange as last year's selection of Ben Revere.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:49:30 pm

I don't know why this would be considered anything like last year's Revere selection. A lot of people didn't even have Revere in the first round, but this year, a lot of people had Hicks going off the board earlier than 14th (Kevin Goldstein, for instance, had Hicks going to the A's at 12 and noted that Hicks was high on the Twins' board) and none of the experts are really raising any eyebrows over it.

bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:54:56 pm

I'm really just thinking about need. Seems like we're reasonably well stocked in speedy centerfielders. If he develops power this is a great pick. If not, sounds like another Pridie/Span type.

bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 2:56:04 pm

But I guess with picking a high school player you've got to think 4 or 5 years in the future, not current need.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:08:51 pm

Yeah, with high school players, their current position doesn't matter at all. And to a large degree, we just don't know how well Hicks will hit. If he's a center fielder but has big power, then put him in a corner spot. It's not like you'd be wasting his defense--there are plenty of balls hit to the corner that need catching, too.

 
 
 
 
 
Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:09:04 pm

3 straight relief pitchers going 19-21. Pretty glad that the Twins didn't jump at one of them.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:18:48 pm

I feel like the Twins wouldn't go for a college closer. I suppose there could be exceptions, but they want upside and once you've moved to the bullpen, you've already limited your upside.

 
 
bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:12:57 pm

The Yankees love those "restricted range" shortstops.

bodly replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:14:06 pm

Oops, it was that other New York team.

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:17:30 pm

Seems like there have been about 20 first basemen selected in the draft so far. Maybe the rest of the league will have to be playing Manny-types in the OF while the Twins have speedy CF everywhere.

 
Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:20:21 pm

It really looks like Hicks has a much more compact swing from the right side. Still, definitely looks like power could come (especially when hitting left-handed).

Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:21:14 pm

Oh, and it looks like he's got a pretty nasty slider.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:23:40 pm

Maybe we should quit trying to force him into one of these "OF" or "P" molds. He can be the 25th player on our roster, as a starting pitcher, and an outfielder/pinch hitter/pinch runner on his off-days, allowing us to carry 12 other pitchers. :)

SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:25:04 pm

Can he play catcher? Because that would be cool, too.

 
davidwatts replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:55:58 pm

maybe like this guy!

 
 
 
 
SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:22:00 pm

I'd like to see some college power hitter selected at 27.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:26:26 pm

Really? How many college power hitters can there be? I have to think this draft is getting awfully thin on college power hitters.

SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:27:50 pm

I gotta confess that I haven't been watching the draft to this point.

 
Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:28:05 pm

I would love to cheer for the name Shooter Hunt for awhile just because it's such a great name.

 
 
 
SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:34:37 pm

Keith Law had Hicks at 13th over all.

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:34:37 pm

Top guys left on Kevin Goldstein's big board:

Gerrit Cole
Shooter Hunt
Casey Kelly
Tim Melville
Jake Odorizzi

All pitchers, except for Kelly who might want to play SS and has a scholarship at Tennessee for football.

Diggity Dino replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:37:00 pm

If best player is a pitcher, I'd hope they take the pitcher. Hope that they can end up with 1 hitter of the next 2 though.

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:38:24 pm

After that:

Zach Collier, toolsy OF
Alex Meyer, pitcher, signability concerns

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:38:46 pm

Twins with a big WTF in #27

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:39:52 pm

Gutierrez isn't even on KG's rankings, 87th on BA's rankings, already had TJ surgery. Alrighty then.

SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:42:25 pm

This represents half the haul on Torii Hunter. Remember that.

Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:57:39 pm

Actually, he ties all the way back in the organization to Gary Ward (seriously!).

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:18:04 pm

The real haul for letting Torii Hunter leave is not needing to pay him eleventy billion dollars a year for the next five years, but yeah, that could turn out to be a missed opportunity.

SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:24:02 pm

And Torii's regressed back to career average Torii these days, which ain't worth half of eleventy billion dollars.

 
 
 
 
 
Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:40:52 pm

I hate the Gutierrez pick. He has horrible mechanics. Just terrible. Why not take a shot at Shooter? Starters are better than relievers anyway.

Milt on Tilt replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:42:58 pm

i too hate this pick. we'll see what they do with 31 to rate the first round.

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:43:04 pm

I can't say that I'm really informed enough on either to "hate" it, but it doesn't seem like the direction I would want to go. I wonder if their success so far with Manship has them a little too high on guys who have had TJ already, and maybe if they are thinking they don't have a lot of bullpen candidates in the upper minors.

Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:46:38 pm

Just from what I have learned from absorbing Carlos Gomez's stuff on THT on pitching mechanics and a few other sources, I really like Hunt a LOT while Gutierrez looks absolutely atrocious on the mound.

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:48:30 pm

Yeah, I have a lot more faith with the Twins when it comes to evaluating pitchers than when it comes to [hitters]. We'll see, they might wind up with Shooter Hunt at 31 still.

 
 
 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:41:34 pm

Ha, the mlb.com draftcast doesn't even have a blurb for Guiterrez. High comedy. It will be fun to see what the Twins have to say about him. (Except that those comments usually don't turn out to be all that more than "we believe in him more than other teams, blah, blah, blah.")

SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:44:06 pm
Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:48:57 pm

But the Twins have had some success with Cuban baseball players.

 
Moss replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:50:16 pm

Sec'y of Commerce -- that puts him in charge of the PTO, indirectly anyway. Watch what you say about him for the next seven months, SBG.

 
 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:43:42 pm

Cole off the board to the Yankees.

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:46:40 pm

Continuing with KG's board,

Conor Gillaspie, 3B -- college player, but compact swing and not much power
Tyson Ross, RHP -- college power pitcher
Lonnie Chisenhall, SS -- JC player, not especially quick defensively and not much power

Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:51:31 pm

Chisenhall also has some major baggage. (To tweak the Bossman and quote the Dutchman, I would call it "NBA-type" baggage.)

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:56:33 pm

Yeah, something about larceny charges? I don't remember what they said exactly about the baggage but it sounds...heavy.

 
 
 
SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:47:00 pm

Here's Gutierrez.

Can't see the elbow scar from that angle.

Moss replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:51:38 pm

He's throwing what appears to be a changeup there, no? Keith Law says he has no second pitch.

 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:50:08 pm

Huh, Chisenhall is way low on BA's rankings, but KG had him going right around here. Oh boy, Chisenhall had some sort of trouble with the law that got him kicked off his college team.

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:54:38 pm

Why do we have to wait an extra 15 minutes for the compensation picks? Grrr

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:55:52 pm

Red Sox go with Kelly. As mentioned above, he's going to be hard to sign, but Boston will likely use their gigantic financial advantage to their, er, advantage.

 
Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 3:56:33 pm

C'mon Shooter!

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:00:18 pm

I have to be honest: I would love to have that name in the organization. It would immediately be up there with Manship at the top.

Dread Pirate Will Young replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:02:51 pm

I know. Shooter Hunt just sounds insanely great.

 
Rhubarb_Runner replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:04:12 pm

I would have liked to see a Twins player Smoak the ball as well.

Moss replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:14:02 pm

"Smoak" evokes "smote" -- As in, "Smoak smote that ball."

 
 
 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:04:11 pm

Joe Sheehan on the pitcher/position player dilemma:

Joe Sheehan (12:46:08 PM PT): Kevin and Bryan know the player better, so consider this a more general observation. Given a choice, I would always start someone like Hicks or Martin out as a position player. You can move from hitting to pitching at 23; you can't move from pitching to hitting at that age, Rick Ankiel notwithstanding. The missed reps cost too much, whereas the missed innings from 18-22 arguably help the pitcher.

If the gap between the player's talents is so wide as to make it obvious what he should do, so be it. Absent that, I think you let a kid hit first, then pitch.

I guess I can get behind that. Start Hicks as a position player and if he doesn't hit, maybe he becomes the next Joe Nathan.

Moss replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:39:31 pm

Moss is guessing they think Gutierrez is Nathan's replacement eventually.

Moss replied on June 5, 2008 at 7:37:06 pm

Or not.

 
 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:07:09 pm

Lookout Landing on the Mariners' first round pick::

First Round: Joshua Fields, RHRP, U Georgia

Fields is a reliever who's walked 42 batters in 70 innings these last two years. He throws hard, with a fastball in the mid-90s and a sharp curve, and he's proven difficult for righties to hit, but he has trouble against lefties and did I mention that he's a reliever? Because if there's one thing this team needs more of, it's right-handed relief pitchers with hard fastballs and iffy control. Also, at an alleged 6', he's one inch taller than Tim Lincecum, who I guess was too little for our likings.

Dumb. Dumb dumb dumb. Taking relievers in the first round is dumb, especially when building an effective bullpen on the cheap is the only thing your GM can do even remotely well. This is the worst season ever.

Spirits are not high out here in Marinerland.

greenmachine replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:10:33 pm

Has the team considered marching into the sea and becoming the Sub-Mariners? They couldn't be worse, could they?

SBG replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:26:26 pm

And USSMariner gives us this gem in the middle of the firestorm.

 
 
 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:12:22 pm

Keith Law just said that he thought Collier was a lock to the Twins at #27, so we could see him here.

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:12:41 pm

Shooter Hunt!

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:13:54 pm

Hunt was 15th on KG's big board:

15. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
What He Is: One of the more consistent college righties this year, and one in possession of two plus offerings (fastball, curve).
What He’s Not: A guy who fills up the strike zone.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: An inning-eating mid-rotation starter
Backup Plan: A lesser starter, as he doesn’t profile especially well out of the pen.
Open Issues: Control lapses, and questions about him throwing the curve for strikes as he prefers to use it as a chase pitch.

 
Rhubarb_Runner replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:13:57 pm

Shooter FTW

 
ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:15:18 pm

Oh, it's on now. No more lollygagging. Odorizzi goes to the Brewers.

 
greenmachine replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:16:07 pm

ubelmann replied on June 5, 2008 at 4:18:57 pm

+72 happy places