Twins Offense as Measured by EQA
June 20th, 2008 by ubelmann
Players with 100+ PA:
.311 -- Joe Mauer
.303 -- Justin Morneau
.287 -- Alexi Casilla
.264 -- Jason Kubel
.260 -- League Average
.251 -- Delmon Young
.249 -- Carlos Gomez
.243 -- Michael Cuddyer
.226 -- Craig Monroe
.222 -- Brendan Harris*
.203 -- Mike Lamb
*Adam Everett, career EQA -- .230 (I figured it was worth mentioning that our no-glove SS has so far hit worse than someone deemed Adam "Neverhit" has hit in his career.)
Those players as ranked by their pre-season PECOTA-projected EQA*:
.274 -- Joe Mauer
.271 -- Justin Morneau
.269 -- Jason Kubel
.265 -- Michael Cuddyer
.262 -- Delmon Young
.250 -- Mike Lamb
.245 -- Brendan Harris
.243 -- Craig Monroe
.235 -- Carlos Gomez
.235 -- Alexi Casilla
*These are not the EQAs that you will see listed on their PECOTA cards, because those are adjusted to the historical scale, not the 2008 season scale. I have adjusted them downward based on the difference between each player's 2008 EQA adjusted for season and his 2008 EQA adjusted for all-time.
With this, we can take a look at overachievers and underachievers. Nate Silver's PECOTA forecasts have percentages listed for Breakout Rate and Collapse Rate. I may look into the breakout and collapse rates more later, but for now I will just list them.
Overachievers (breakout%):
+.052 -- Alexi Casilla (35%)
+.037 -- Joe Mauer (10%)
+.033 -- Justin Morneau (7%)
+.014 -- Carlos Gomez (40%)
(With Casilla and Gomez, this could partially be the dreaded Ugueto Efect.)
Underachievers (collapse%):
-.047 -- Mike Lamb (39%)
-.023 -- Brendan Harris (30%)
-.022 -- Michael Cuddyer (22%)
-.017 -- Craig Monroe (31%)
-.011 -- Delmon Young (18%)
Essentially Neutral (breakout%/collapse%):*
-.005 -- Jason Kubel (33%/17%)
*I was going to make the neutral category be +/-0.010 EQA, but it turned out that only one hitter fits in there right now. Go figure.
So I look at this and think to myself that it should not be that much of a surprise that Lamb, Harris, and Monroe have all failed to live up to expectations. (And it might not be especially realistic to expect them to improve much upon what they've done so far.) Cuddyer has been injured, which partially accounts for his disappointment, but he does seem to get injured a lot.
Casilla and Gomez both had very low expectations, so beating low expectations is not all that much of a surprise. (And Casilla has the fewest AB of the 10 players in the discussion here.) Since Mauer and Morneau have been very good over the last three years, it is not surprising that their breakout rates are so low (since breaking out for them would be something like going from star to superstar or HOF'er) though I admit that their projections seem pretty low after you make the adjustment from all-time EQA to season EQA.
Kubel and even Young have really not been that much different from what we should have expected. A little on the disappointing side, but not all that far below, it turns out.
This entry was posted by ubelmann on Friday, June 20th, 2008 at 11:12 am and is filed under Guest Writers, MLB, Minnesota Twins, ubelmann. It is one of 640 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.
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SBG replied on June 20, 2008 at 11:26:40 am
My initial thought on the PECOTA numbers this year were that Mauer and Morneau were really undervalued, so it is no surprise to me that both of them are well above their mean projections. It's not like they are having career years, either. They are both having good, but not great, years for them, at least by my way of thinking. PECOTA just hated them, that's all.
Nick N. replied on June 20, 2008 at 12:20:06 pm
Yeah, I couldn't for the life me understand why Morneau's PECOTA projection was so low.
ubelmann replied on June 20, 2008 at 3:15:16 pm
Morneau hit like Punto for 2+ months to end the season. Had he hit like that to start this season instead of to end a season, people would probably be questioning his extension right now. As it is, if you look at the EQA's adjusted for all-time, Morneau's career EQA is .291, his EQA last year was .294, and PECOTA had projected .286. I submit that that's not totally crazy, and while Morneau is at .314 now, it's not that hard for me to imagine him ending the season with a sub-.300 EQA.
Mauer's missed enough playing time that he was compared to a lot of guys that flamed out due to injury problems, which is suggested by his 36% collapse rate.
greenmachine replied on June 20, 2008 at 3:15:28 pm
It's widely agreed by all experts that PECOTA is irrationally and without basis horribly biased against the Minnesota Twins.
greenmachine replied on June 20, 2008 at 3:16:18 pm
Oops, forgot to close my /ubelbait tag
ubelmann replied on June 20, 2008 at 3:18:38 pm
Especially when it would perennially project Santana as the best pitcher in baseball.
Rhubarb_Runner replied on June 20, 2008 at 4:12:40 pm
I'm sure greenmachine was talking about the well-known PECOTA position-player Minnesota penalty
ubelmann replied on June 20, 2008 at 3:17:41 pm
They are both having good, but not great, years for them, at least by my way of thinking.
Morneau's .314 EQA is exactly the same as his EQA from 2006 and Mauer's .329 is the best it has ever been in his career--even better than his .325 EQA from his 2006 MVP campaign. I really doubt that, overall, either player is going to get much better than this.
brianS replied on June 20, 2008 at 3:28:37 pm
I really doubt that, overall, either player is going to get much better than this.
You need some refreshment, ubes. Drink up. I've got more back in my cooler.
ubelmann replied on June 20, 2008 at 3:30:14 pm
Have you been dipping into Bill Bavasi's stash?
socaltwinsfan replied on June 20, 2008 at 4:55:13 pm
When you realize how down the league is this year overall, it is easy to see how Mauer could be seen as having an even better season. The Twins as a whole are not up all that much from last year in runs scored, but because the league as a whole is down, then it explains why the Twins are above average offensively after being horrible last year in relation to the AL.
ubelmann replied on June 20, 2008 at 5:35:02 pm
When you realize how down the league is this year overall, it is easy to see how Mauer could be seen as having an even better season.
I disagree. Scoring in the league could well be down because teams have done a better job at finding good pitchers and good defenders. If that persists, it will make it hard for Mauer to improve on his performance. As it is, he's a contact hitter leading the league in batting average. Even if he hits for some more power, he's probably not going to hit for that much power, and he'll probably lose some batting average to do it.
Could Mauer do better? Sure, it's possible. I just don't think it's a good idea to expect him to do very much better than this--he's already the best catcher in the AL (by a larger margin, too) and ratewise is performing at nearly a HOF level for catchers (higher career OPS+ than 10 catchers in the Hall.) We ought to be thrilled that he's performing the way he is, and I don't think it's a good idea to merely dismiss this as a "good but not great" season.
socaltwinsfan replied on June 21, 2008 at 3:17:42 pm
I'm not sure if I wrote clearly. I was trying to point out that Mauer's having an even better season than it might appear at first glance because the league is down in scoring (or up in pitching, if you prefer). He is hitting .335/.418/.444 (as of Saturday) as opposed to .347/.429/.507 in 2006. That looks like a pretty significant difference, especially in his power numbers. However, his OPS+ is only down 6 points (138 this year as opposed to 144 in 2006) because the league is not nearly as good.