The WGOM

Draft Bust Preview

June 26th, 2008 by brianS

In honor of the Wolves' impending draft mistake, let's review Reusse's recent analysis of the franchise's woeful draft performance over the years:

12. Wally World, 6th in 1999. Rip Hamilton was 7th, Andre Miller 8th, Shawn Marion 9th. I'll give Reusse this one (although he neglected to mention Marion), although the numbers are closer than you might think. Wally's career line is 15.0/4.1/2.5; Hamilton's is 17.9/3.3/3.3; Miller's 14.4/4.2/7.5, all in comparable minutes/g.

11. McCants, 14th in 2005. The next four picks: Antoine Wright, Joey Graham, Danny Granger, Gerald Green. In retrospect, either a lot of teams swung and missed or maybe McCants was a decent pick, given the information available at the time. And it's not as though the Wolves took Yaroslav Korolev.

10. Gerald Glass, 20th, 1990. Seriously? You are criticizing who the team took 20th? The next three were Shotgun Jayson Williams, Tate George and Anthony Bonner. How the heck can you criticize the Wolves without indicting almost this entire draft? Reusse will get nothing! And like it!

9. Corey Brewer, 7th, 2007. It's still a bit early to declare this pick a bust, but the next three were Brandan Wright, Joakim Noah and Spencer Hawes. Noah was the best of that lot almost by default, although I expect a huge leap forward from Hawes this year. I give Reusse half credit here, max.

8. Luc Longley, 7th, 1991. The next three picks were Mark Macon, Stacy Augmon and Brian Williams/Bison Dele. Plastic Man would have been a good pick, but he was no star. Dele was a nut job who did little during his first 4 seasons in the league. Macon was a bust. Luc was serviceable. No credit.

7. Christian F. Laettner, 3rd, 1992. Ugh. Picking 3rd in a two-player draft is not good (in case anyone was looking for hope this year). The next three players were Jimmy Jackson, Laphonso Ellis and Googs. All four had similar career productivity. As much as I'd like to complain about the Laettner pick, it was the right choice at the time. You have to go all the way down to Latrell Sprewell at 24th to find a player with a clearly better career. And we don't really want to go there.

6. Donyell Marshall, 4th, 1994. Juwan Howard, Sharone Wright and Lamond Murray were the next three. Howard is the best of that set, but Marshall has had a nice career as a third scorer and solid rebounder. No credit.

5. William Avery, 20th, 1999. Actually, it's worse than that, Patrick. Avery went 14th, not 20th. One pick before the immortal Frederic Weis, followed by Ron Artest and Cal Bowdler. Avery was a bust but, quick! name the next successful guard taken in that draft! ... If you picked Gordon Giricek, taken 40th, give yourself a gold star! Let's just agree that this draft was not deep with guards. Still, there were lots of serviceable bigs and forwards taken in the latter half of the first round, available when the Wolves took Avery. Credit, Reusse.

4. Paul Grant, 20th, 1997. Generally speaking, Wisconsin picks -- particularly bigs -- are automatic busts. The next three picks were Anthony Parker (3 years of nothing, followed by 6 years in Europe learning how to play; he's now a nice player in Toronto), Ed Gray and Bobby Jackson. Clearly in hindsight, Jackson was the right pick. But it's not like the Wolves didn't have the opportunity to enjoy his skills. And it took him 4 full seasons to learn how to shoot. I'll give Reusse a quarter credit.

3. Foye, 7th, 2006. Yea, they should have kept Roy. Everyone knows that, and a lot of us knew it at the time. But the next four guys were Rudy Gay (slowly becoming a player in Memphis), Patrick O'Bryant (uh huh), Saer Sene and JJ Redick. That's a veritable Morganna of bust. I'll credit Reusse for the obvious that the Wolves should have kept Roy.

2. Ndudi Ebi, 26th, 2003. Seriously. You are picking 26th. The odds of getting a contributor here are slim and none, so why not take a flyer? Yea, Ebi busted. And yea, the next three guys were Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbosa and Josh Howard, all studs. But if they were so obvious, why did they last until 27th-29th? I mean, it's not like the Wolves took Darko Milicic with the second pick, right? Half credit.

1. JR Rider, 5th, 1993. The next three picks were Calbert Cheaney, Bobby Hurley and Vin Baker. Vin was a stud until he succumbed to the Demon Rum. Cheaney was a double-digit scorer (but offered little else) during his first 5 seasons. Hurley may have been a serviceable PG in the league for a few years if he'd been wearing his seatbelt on the night of Dec. 12, 1993. Still, Rider put up good numbers on bad teams. No credit.

That totals up to 4.25 bS points for Reusse out of 12 possible

The Wolves took Felton Spencer 6th in 1990, but that draft was filled with saline bags. The best bigs taken after Spencer were under-sized PF Loy Vaught (13th) and the frustrating Elden Campbell (27th). Reusse mentions Pooh Richardson (10th in 1989), but at the time he was traded away he was as good or better than Mookie Blaylock (12th) .

Now let's look at the picks Reusse did not discuss:
1. KG, 5th, 1995. Duh. An all-time, inner-circle, first-ballot great. +a bazillion.
2. Rasho, 17th, 1998. The next three all are household names somewhere: Mirsad Turkcan, Pat Garrity and Roshown McLeod. +1 to the franchise.
3. Stephon Marbury 4th in 1996 (swapped for Ray Allen). Sure, I said at the time they should have kept Ray Allen. But either guy was clearly better than the next 4 picks: Antoine Walker, Lorenzen Wright, Kerry Kittles and Samaki Walker. Call that a push.

The lesson: while the Wolves have not drafted well, neither have they really drafted poorly compared to their peers, given the info available to them at the time. Well, except for the Joe Smith thing. That was pretty much unforgivable.

Tags: Draft, Minnesota Timberwolves

This entry was posted by brianS on Thursday, June 26th, 2008 at 7:00 am and is filed under Featured Articles, NBA. It is one of 523 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.