Cliff Lee Is Not That Good vs. Perkins
Don't get me wrong--Cliff Lee has still be great this year, but his xFIP of 3.15 is much higher than his ERA of 2.26 and while he'll probably start the All-Star Game (and it's not a terrible idea for him to do that), I would personally choose Halladay over Lee.
Overall, though, Lee is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma...but perhaps there is a key. The Twins don't have any great right-handed hitters, so I wouldn't necessarily expect them to unearth the key, but you never know. Lee's fastball velocity seems to be up a bit from last year, but his pitch speeds aren't up across the board. He's not throwing his slider more often, but he is getting more ground balls, so he's probably throwing a two-seamer more...unless he's just found a way to get his two-seamer to dip better. (Maybe changed his arm angle to get better movement on the two-seamer?) His walk rate has gone from decent to awesome, while his strikeout rate is the highest it has been in the last five years. He's 29, which isn't all that old, but certainly not an age where you'd expect a pitcher to take huge strides forward.
So I don't get it. I don't see any good reason that Cliff Lee should be doing this well. He may well continue dominating the AL on his way to a Cy Young Award, but I'm probably going to be skeptical of his performance right up until that happens.
Although, I just found Ozzie Guillen's take on the situation:
White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen had watched Cliff Lee pitch before, but not the Lee who held Chicago to one run Tuesday night in an eight-inning no-decision.
"I was wondering how he had so many wins," said Guillen, "Now I know. Lee has always had a good arm, but he could never find the plate. Now he's throwing strikes and he's got a good change-up. He's going to win a lot of games pitching like that."
The better control is obvious in the numbers (though its sustainability is not), but the better change-up is not. According to fangraphs, Lee is actually throwing the change slightly less than he has in the past, though it's possible that he's getting better movement on it now, locating it better, and/or hiding it better.
Asile 4. Sweep, sweep, sweep.
That's something I would type! And an excuse for me to try out blockquotes again.
bunty bunty!
Go-Go, making the simplest catches look spectacular since 2008
Slug bunt.
umm.... bunty bunty!
its like the teams are playing fastpitch softball today
Casilla has a surprising amount of pop in his bat. Slugging over .450, bunting balls out of the infield... Is his bat made of flubber?
That's a dumb question; how could it be? Even Gordo and Dazzle could tell if it was. The question is, is his bat flubber-filled?
Thank God for Josh Hamilton, or the whole first half of the All-Star Selection Show would have been NYY/BOS fauning. Yuck.
(nice - I googled "perkins", and the 2nd image from the list (above) was from WGOM)
Afternoon, gents. I'm back home and man is it muggy today. Temp is only about 89, but the dewpoint is in the 70s. We haven't used the AC much this summer, but it's running today.
yep, it feels like Summer today
I do not have AC
StL has had a BEAUTIFUL holiday weekend; mid 80s today, but a breeze, and virtually no humidity. We never have weather this nice for the 4th here.
It was real nice up at the lake (mom's house in Brainerd). Sunny, breezy, fairly low humidity. I repaired a toilet (replaced a worn out fill valve and flapper), the lawn tractor (broken tie rod end), and pulled down a limb that broke about 30 feet up an oak tree. Sucker was hanging by a big strip of bark and could have come down any time, so I got a rope over it and brought it down, then chopped it up with the chainsaw. It was definitely a manly weekend up north, and I even got a couple hours of fishing in.
sounds fantastic twayn!
The Nadal/Federer Wimbledon final is quite good as it just entered the 5th set after a long tiebreak in the 4th.
And now 6-all in the fifth. I like Nadal, but six in a row? That's something to cheer for.
anyone else have trouble with mlb.com the last few days? All sites, including the Twins main page, automatically load to this : http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/NULL - the NULL part sends me to a 404 error- had this problem for the last 2 days on my laptop.
I've had no problems.
meat, try clearing your browser cache.
I tried that with no luck- went as far as to reset Safari- Hrm.
that was a long inning.
glad its over
Nice. Now, if the Twins could ever mount an offensive threat...
Bremer determined to come up with a nickname for the speedy Twins. In the great tradition of amphetamines in baseball, I propose Bags of Speed. Put that on a t-shirt, Dick.
I'd like to see "Put that on a t-shirt, Dick" on a t-shirt
or perhaps 8 ball(s) of speed....
I bet we can find something here.
How about The Crank Bugs?
gogo go.
IF hit for Gomez - imagine that!
OKGo!
Our best bet today is to work as many long counts against Lee as possible and try to drive his pitch count up. Although Wedge let CC throw over 120 pitches in his last start.
Cliff Lee = jerk
jerk vs. perk
Sounds like a game show on SpikeTV
I'm sorry, but any pitcher who can't handle speedy players bunting on him is a pussy.
Ditto any bunting speedy players who can't handle pitchers
To clarify--by "handle" I mean "play the game without crying like a newborn baby whose chew toy has been taken away from him." Bunting is as much a part of the game as swinging away and offspeed pitches are, and players shouldn't be expected to not bunt any more than pitchers should be expected to not throw sliders.
I understood you better before you tried to clarify.
Lee was apparently bitching about Gomez trying to bunt. The only thing I hate more than pitchers telling the other team's hitters how to play the game is pitchers intentionally throwing at Joe Mauer twice and not getting thrown out of the game.
I'd feed Lee a steady diet of bunts, if I thought they had a good chance of succeeding. He's asking for it.
I agree. Pitchers already get a designated hitter. Until they get a designated fielder, field your friggin' position and STFU.
GoGo getting into Lee's head?
Perkins finding his groove? How's he look on TV?
ONLY two Yankees?! Bite me, ESPN. Bite me.
Jeter, blech. Michael Young should be starting at SS. Hell, I'd even rather see Orlando Cabrera there than Jeter. Similar offensive numbers and much better defense than Cap'n Dreamboat can provide. How many times do we have to hear "Past a diving Jeter..."?
There just aren't any compelling SS candidates in the AL, so I can't really blame the fans that much for putting Jeter in there.
Also, Jeter was the best SS in the AL last year, and I think that counts for something, too, especially in a year where no one has been significantly better than he has.
but voting for anyone else but Jeter IS compelling!
Even my 100 votes couldn't compel Adam Everett into the AS game.
trivia question: who was the last Indians pitcher to league the AL in ERA?
was Kevin Millwood with the Tribe when he bested Johan by something like. 05 and Johan missed out of the pitchers Triple Crown
Joe sure isn't Gary Carter with the microphone
looks like Federer and Nadal are coming back onto the court.
well, the edit button seemed to have disappeared!
Come on boys -- make Lee WORK. 4 IP, 45 pitches so far.
You can only do so much when he's throwing strikes.
making some good contact comes to mind
Yeah, that's easy.
not really, but I can wish
Okay, Lee looks unfreakinghittable today, but Perkins hasn't been too bad himself. The one run he gave up was a direct result of a catchable ball (would've been a tough play but definitely catchable by Span) that ended up a Shoppach double. If Perkins can keep this close, maybe one of those weird Metrodome rallies will be enough? You know, like what happened in this game.
Perkins just has to keep putting donuts on the board. One mistake by Lee to the right hitter and we can tie this thing up.
Um, no donut. That pitch to Jhonny was an eclair.
More like a creampuff.
Man, I thought day/night splits got retired with GW RBI.
hey everybody!
PB!
Is that Jeter injured in your pic? When was that game?
Judging by the turf in the background, it has to be the game against the Blue Jays where the catcher went over to third base and illegally blocked the base while Jeter was sliding in and Jeter injured his shoulder.
Beats me, but I liked the image, so there it is
Metrodome is really quiet this afternoon, and it looks like a halfway decent crowd
Maybe they all read The Onion -- and have an impaired sense of irony?
Why did that guy throw the ball back? He clearly didn't want to.
And risk the wrath of the dreaded LF Metrodome Bleacher* Creatures? Are you nuts, man?
*Not really bleachers, but it rhymes
Are you nuts, man?
Yes.
That's gotta be the stupidest (new) tradition in the game. If I'm that guy, I tell everyone around to kiss my @ss. Screw peer pressure.
amen to that
I like the spirit behind it, but it's tired and cliche. A variation on the theme would be much more effective, like incinerating it on the spot in a sort of cleansing ritual.
The Cubs fans have thrown HR balls back for many, many years. For that reason alone, I think it should be abandoned.
I think that's mainly my problem with it. It's a Cubs tradition. Why would we want to do anything the Cubs started?
A tradition of failure.
That sounds good in theory, but try getting the flamethrower through security.
Oh, sure, I show up and the Twins start tanking
don't blame yourself; they started when Lee showed up.
So, Lohse didn't make the All-star team... yet
This is the first time in quite a while that a 3-run deficit has looked huge...
say that again?!
o' ye of little faith (4-3)
Those are the kinds of words I like to eat.
"Circle us Bert! We want to be
inseminateddisseminated!"Finally entered the 21st Century and got real cable (not that basic stuff with just network and TBS). That means I get to watch the Twins tomorrow, and the HR Derby next Monday. Good times. Good times.
Nice wheels on that Span kid.
Woo-hoo! Span triple
Thanks for the run, Jhonny.
What is with Indians pitchers and their bunt aversion? First CC Sabathia uses Twins hitters for target practice after getting bunted on a few seasons back... now Lee has a meltdown over the league leader in bunt hits dropping one down on him?
I think Twins hitters should arbitrarily glare and yell at Lee everytime he throws a changeup... it would make about as much sense...
I really don't get it. It's like they think they're playing slowpitch softball or something.
We don't do that in slowpitch softball. That's bush league.
It ain't sexy but it's a run
mlb.tv advertises for itself between every inning shown on mlb.tv. I already purchased your product! WTF?
Anything for an extra buck. They gotta pay for these players' third homes you know!
Brand reinforcement. You know, to differentiate it from the competition.
I hear "Keep Watching (TM)" in my sleep.
Those MLB-logo-branded Statues of Liberty are about as gaudy as it gets, BTW...
I thought Tony Batista was out of the league??
Ha!
Why not just wrap Jeter in the American Flag?
:throws up:
For me, it's "Eh! Dis i' Victor Martinez."
Take it easy on the guy, he had to read that off a cue card.
yeah, it's like showing a movie trailer for the movie you are sitting there waiting to watch
I didn't realize the Twins had played such a home-heavy schedule. I guess that along with their insane BA with RISP are two facts that should temper our optimism a bit.
Still, they're playing with house money... and playing well...
They have a long road stretch while the Republican National Convention is in town.
I cant wait for that nice 15 game roadtrip later this year.12 on the west coast, then fly to Toronto for 3.
Days like today are the days I wish that signing the best third baseman in baseball last offseason would have even been an option.
yea, I bet he could have made a legit play to keep Lima in town, now that Marko is gone.
Wow. Did Gordo just say that TB was practically a lock to win the East??
I want some of what he's smoking.
its his birthday
he probably got the good stuff from Dazzle
What's with dudes name Guillen calling out players and coaches? Jose Guillen goes off again against his KC mates, Ozzie's rants are legendary, what next, Carlos Guillen gonna bust out a rant against Chubrera?
Ladies and Gentlemen: Your Cleveland Indians!
Pretty good AB by Delmon, given that Lee was throwing strikes.
Oh, boy. Bases loaded and Nicky Punto coming up.
Which Nick Punto -- 2006 or 2007 (his year so far seems to be a battle between the two)?
It's becoming really difficult for me to hate nick these days.
Good Nick 2006 wins the battle vs. Bad Nick 2007. Nick 2008 looking pretty good.
He's a much better player when he's not playing injured.
Twins with 4 hits, three of them of the IF variety...
Game On!
Bases juiced for Sluggin' Nicky! Break out the Cape!
It's all up to Punto (aw crap)
Where's the Rally Cap? Scheiss!
Bases loaded, Punto AB. The Indians are playing right into our hand, just as we had planned it.
At least Punto isn't going to flail away like some of the others in the lineup.
I don't feel like they have too many flailers in the lineup right now. Gomez and Delmon swing early and often, so you have those two. To a lesser degree, Redmond and Monroe are pretty aggressive, but they are on a totally different plane than Gomez and Delmon. Kubel, Cuddyer, Harris, and Morneau seem somewhere between aggressive and patient. After those guys, Casilla, Mauer, Span, and Punto are all patient to differing degrees.
I had Gomez and Delmon in mind
Man, Lee just lives on that outside corner.
Go Punto!
C'mon Span, keep it up!
w00t!! Punt0!!
Nicky delivers. Who woulda thunk it.
and D-SPAN gets a chance to be a hero.
to think I was begging for Nicky to avoid the GIDP just to get to D-SPAN....
Hey his average in day games is over .400!
Harris and Punto both feeling CRISPy...
Does Span feel the same way?
as we say in softball, that hit looks as good as a linedrive in the scorebook
I love this team!
I'll take a BB here
TIE!
Lee suddenly not throwing strikes.
Yeah, that seems especially noteworthy since his improved control has been a big key to his success this year.
DSPAN2!!!!!!!
Thank you Mr. Lee.
Span! Oh, you gotta love guys with plate discipline.
And here comes Gomez.... after what went down between Lee and GoGo earlier, you just KNEW it had to be them up against each other here...
Would have loved a squeeze attempt, but a productive out will do just fine.
That's a tall order with the bases full.
I know, especially with GoGo at the plate. Still, it would've been fun to see Lee's head explode if they had pulled it off.
Absolutely.
I can smell Howard's "bottom feeders" schtick from here.
When it gives us the lead, I'll take the productive out.
In general, I would say that trading an out for a run is productive. Trading an out for second base or third base is not nearly as productive.
ground out RBI with bases loaded?
C'mon, Lexi, bring 'em in!
I've never been so happy to see Gomez hit a weak FC grounder.
Striking out has been a weakness for him, so that was good to see. With his speed, just getting the ball in play was important there, since it was unlikely they would be able to turn two with him running to first.
two outs -- RSIP rally
Runners to Score In Position?
Okay, I'll take our 'pen over the Indians' 'pen any day. Steady sailing, boys...
This is a refreshing score to come home to.
OK, boys, just follow the script. Mattie shuts 'em out in the 8th and Joe closes out.
Part I: Check!
Phase B: Check!
It's been a pleasure, gents.
with the save intact.
Well, Dick, if 7th and 8th inning pitching will win the division, I'd say the White Sox will win the division.
Could be. They also might get unlucky like the Twins and have a key guy go down (Jenks is apparently fighting a mild injury. for starters)... no question on paper, the White Sox should win the division...
Of course, Hawk has been saying that every year since 2002... he's been right once...
I agree that depth could be a problem for the White Sox if they get stung by injuries, but you could say the same thing about the Twins, too.
With Liriano in the minors, I'm guessing the Twins can sustain a hit to a starter a lot better than the White Sox.
Looking at Lance Broadway's numbers this year, I don't think that the Liriano v. Broadway difference would be all that big, at least as far as the second half of this season goes.
Lance Broadway?!
With a name like that, I wonder how long before he's in pinstripes.
Guerrier... the guy flies under the radar but he's been getting it done for almost 3 seasons now. Love the guy.
A week or two ago Gardy mentioned Guerrier as All-Star worthy. I wouldn't go that far, but I think he was just trying to give him some limelight.
Is the WGOM server a bit wacky today? This is the second time I've gotten a blank white screen when refreshing the page. Repeated page refreshes do nothing, I have to close and restart Firefox to make it work again.
I've been drawing a blank when submitting a comment, but then refreshing brings everything back. (I use Firefox.)
It's happened to me a few times, too.
ditto. I'm running FF 3.0, fwiw.
Same here, though I'm still on FF 2.
IE's also doing it at times
I'm pretty sure it's a server issue, not a browser compatibility issue.
yep. pages have been loading slower, too
what? No Jesse last inning?
So long, Cliff ... screen door ... way out
What the hell is Varitek doing on the A-S team?
Taking a spot from someone who deserves it.
pine-riding
they need more 'Leadership'
Jeter cant carry all the load ya'know
Dude, didn't you get the memo? He plays for Boston.
oh, right. There were ONLY 4 BOS starters, plus Papelboner and Drew.
I'd rather see AJ on the team, but mebbe the other guys would have refused to play with him, a la Field of Dreams.
AJ had a 9.6 VORP for all of last season. It's not that hard for me to envision him being a roughly replacement level hitter the rest of the way and finishing with a ~15 VORP this year. I guess I don't see any injustice there.
Pretty tough to make a compelling argument for someone else at that spot. They're going to carry three catchers, and you've got say, Victor Martinez not on the team, but he has been replacement level this year at the plate and isn't good defensively. AJP has been amongst the better performers this year, but he's a jerk (which is a strike if you're a marginal choice) and wasn't very good last year.
In a year where the best player at that position has a VORP (~27) roughly equal to the sum of the next two best players (~13 and ~14), you're going to wind up with a marginal choice any way you cut it. If someone else wanted that spot, they should have made a better case on the field.
Varitek has been absolutely horrible as of late. If his slump continues, he could have truly awful numbers by the break, so much so that even casual fans will be thinking conspiracy theory, especially with Francona managing the AS team. Of course, Varitek might have been picked by the players, I don't know.
Varitek was added by the players vote. Francona had six choices. Four of his choices were to make sure each team had one player represented: Soria (KC), Duchscherer (OAK), Sherrill (BAL), and Carlos Guillen (DET). The other two choices were Joe Nathan (who otherwise would have been omitted from the team) and Dioner Navarro (who plays for a division rival.)
One could maybe nitpick Francona's choices, but he certainly didn't pad his team with Red Sox and I don't see any obviously deserving players who were overlooked.
I was going to compare his inclusion to Laudner's 1988 All-Star selection (courtesy of Tom Kelly, of course), but that would be pretty unfair... Laudner had a 99 OPS+ that year (and was by all accounts a fine defensive catcher), Varitek is sporting an oogly 73 OPS+ thus far...
I like seeing Kubel here. Not just because he should be hitting here, but because it confirms that Gardy has really figured out how to use him... and platoon splits in general...
now if he'd just swing the bat.
right on brink
that was a tough pitch from Betancourt
I don't know, I think I'd rather have him PH for Young here instead of Monroe so he could go in and play LF for the 9th. I just do not trust Young's defense at all.
Sox up by two in the 7th, cr@p
Afternoon fellers, just got back from roughin' it (in a camper) away from technology (but still with cable) out in the wilderness (Jellystone in Warrens). Seems like things went well for the squad this weekend.
I'm tempted to move back into Twins viewing territory. I feel like I'm missing out on one of the most interesting teams they've put together. It was a great feeling when I flipped on the computer when the bottom of the seventh started, Twins down by 2, and me understanding that they aren't beaten yet.
Hey CT- how are the lungs?
They're on their way to being 100%. Not quite there yet, though.
I did decide that a beer or two is ok despite the warfarin, though. Just gotta be careful, and all that jazz.
Bring on Joe.
It's been great lately, knowing that when the twins are down 3, it ain't anywhere near over. Never got that feeling last year.
Eat, Joe! Eat!
It's times like these I'm really glad the Twins did what they "shouldn't have" by re-signing Joe Nathan. Hey, I was one of em saying that...
I, too, wanted them to ride the Neshek train to savesville. Maybe Bill Smith has the foresight.
you mean:
you find that gurl sanger acceptable?
to watch, sure!!
Paging Mr. Johns. Mr. Johns to the clubhouse please.
Modern art has been good to the Twins lately.
Man, if theTwins keep sweeping series like this, they're gonna have a big ol' target on their backs.
OK, boys, just follow the script. Mattie shuts 'em out in the 8th and Joe closes out.
Part I: Check!
Phase B: Check!
It's been a pleasure, gents.
Boy does it feel good to beat Cleveland.
Not to mention defeating a minor arch-nemesis (and apparent jerkface) in Cliff Lee...
And to know that it should probably put the finishing touches on the Indians, as well as give the Indians the motivation to trade Sabathia.
Hot fudge
sundaeSunday!I keep telling myself "it's all downhill from here" but I've been saying that since they swept the homestand against Nats and Snakes... then the sweep in SD... then back-to-back series wins vs. the Brewers and Tiggers... could they be emanating any more good vibes right now?
Linebrink on for the White Sox
Sox up 4-2 in the 9th
Lots o' fireworks this weekend.
Yeah, looks like the A's will at least make it interesting. 4-2 Sox, but Oaktown has the tying run at the plate with a 1 out. Jenks not avail to close er out, it's Linebrink on the bump.
4-3
Mark Ellis single
jack Cust up
Wow, A's making it very, very interesting... now Cust steps to the plate with the tying run at 2nd... 2 outs...
No cigar, Sox win.
A lot of people thought Kenny Williams was totally crazy for the moves he made this offseason. I didn't think he was crazy, but I sure didn't expect the White Sox to be this good, either. (Mainly, I thought their rotation was pretty suspect, but it seems like almost everything that could go right has gone right with their rotation.)
You didn't expect the Twins to be this good, either. Nor did most of us, though.
I absolutely didn't expect the Twins to be this good. I really hope there's a reason for their success and it's not just a fluke because:
1) Then if I find that reason, I'll have learned something and will be able to identify it in the future (plus, it's always good to learn things.)
and
2) If there's a reason for this success, then it will be sustainable.
I look at the starting pitching first, then the improvements offensively. With the pitching, I think it is quite possibly sustainable with the possible exception of Livan. I just believe that we have some quality starters and a solid bullpen even with Neshek out. With the offense, I'm not so sure. We've been mighty lucky with RISP this year compared to our overall offensives numbers, and I doubt that can be sustained through the end of the season. But I hope I'm wrong. Also, I think we've been playing better defense in the past month or so, but I haven't really tried to quantify that.
With Punto and Casilla shoving Harris to a corner more often and Buscher shoving Lamb off the field in most cases (and even with Span taking time from Cuddyer), we've at least been putting more defensive talent on the field lately.
Exactly. Except for Konerko (and now Jenks), have they had any bad luck at all? Quentin hits like an MVP. Dye hits like an MVP (again). Basically position by position, they're getting much better production all the way around except at 1B and DH this season.
And that doesn't even address their pitching, as you mention... which has been off the charts better than expected as well.
I'd feel a lot better about all of this if the Twins weren't experiencing basically exactly the same thing except for it being CF and RF that are down for them.
All in all, the fact that the Twins are only a game behind that bunch is pretty amazing.
Well, I guess interesting doesn't win games.
Wow, this is exciting to the see the Twins winning so much again. It's like 2006 all over again. Let's just hope if it is, the post season has a different flavor.
Cust just missed a meaty pitch... I mean, Linebrink threw a cookie down the middle... hit the sucker a mile high but needed another 50 feet of distance.
Hey, I'll take shaving 1.5 games off the lead while each team plays a series anytime...
Twins 3-run deficits overcome in the last 2 weeks:
7/6 vs. Indians
7/5 vs. Indians
6/27 vs. Brewers
6/26 vs. Padres
6/25 vs. Padres
6/22 vs. D-Backs
All exactly three runs... note the three-games-in-a-row 3-run comebacks June 25-27... three is the magical number of the Twins comeback... and this number shall be three... it shall not be two, nor one, but three...
+ 1 Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch.
1 ... 2 ... 4, I mean 3!
sorry to correct you guys...
"1, 2, 5!"
"3 sire!"
"3!"
That's just freaking tremendous. Six three run leads done in in just about two weeks. This team is scorching hot.