Game 97: Rangers at Twins

Matt Harrison vs. Livan

If Livan was any other pitcher on the staff, I'd point to his 5.44 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, and .346 BABIP and I would conclude that he's been some combination of unlucky on balls in play and poor defensive support. So that's exactly what I'm going to tell you--Livan's been some combination of unlucky on balls in play and poor defensive support.

I still don't think he was a good deal at $5-7M, but that doesn't mean the man can't be unlucky. And yes, I realize that there's a good chance this could seem silly after the game, given the way that Texas can mash, but that's my story and I'm stickin' with it--Livan's ERA and hits total have been inflated by some combination of luck and poor defense. That doesn't make him great, but he has deserved better so far.

Harrison was projected by PECOTA to be about a replacement level pitcher with a ~5.50 ERA. In particular, he's not too good at missing bats.

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