Game 97: Rangers at Twins
Posted by ubelmann on Saturday, July 19th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Matt Harrison vs. Livan
If Livan was any other pitcher on the staff, I'd point to his 5.44 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, and .346 BABIP and I would conclude that he's been some combination of unlucky on balls in play and poor defensive support. So that's exactly what I'm going to tell you--Livan's been some combination of unlucky on balls in play and poor defensive support.
I still don't think he was a good deal at $5-7M, but that doesn't mean the man can't be unlucky. And yes, I realize that there's a good chance this could seem silly after the game, given the way that Texas can mash, but that's my story and I'm stickin' with it--Livan's ERA and hits total have been inflated by some combination of luck and poor defense. That doesn't make him great, but he has deserved better so far.
Harrison was projected by PECOTA to be about a replacement level pitcher with a ~5.50 ERA. In particular, he's not too good at missing bats.
Tonight's going to be that high scoring game I was threatening last night.
Im enjoying my free week of MLB extra innings on directv. Do you guys think the Livan is feeling any heat with Liriano's run in AAA and his agent making noise?
I had a friend in middle school named Matt Harrison. He moved to Upstate New York and I bumped into him a couple of times while I was in DC.
I'm almost done, Will. Just proofing/tweaking one last time before I send you what should essentially be the final draft.
Finished draft in your inbox now.
evening folks.
Good afternoon, meat.
Did this guy have some sort of problems as a youth??
I dunno. I don't ever remember hearing about him throwing a bat at an umpire. How bad could his problems have been?
no, the other guy. Jay Hamilton? John Madison? Alexander Jay?
[ed: err, right. what you said, ubes]
Hey, meat! Wave "hi" to Mrs S and the Girl tonight. They'll be flying in to your city, on their way to Santa Fe.
bS, I think they need to stop in at the Marble brewery for the IPA challenge- 9 breweries with wild IPAs- I have had my fill.
I wish. The Mrs. approves of beer breath (whew!) but doesn't have any taste for the stuff herself.
Oh yeah- the Museum of Fine Art in Santa Fe has a great glass art show up. Some really great stuff- worth the trip for sure, then the cowgirl hall of fame for lunch- I think I know what I'm doing tomorrow.
That Hamilton guy has a great story.
Livan with the early K. Good sign? I think so.
Gomez 4-pitch walk??? I think Gordo and Jack are trying to play a trick on me.
I have to make the airport run in 2-3 minutes, so it would be nice if jeebus would deliver a miracle here.
D'oh, boo.
We was robbed of our robbery!
W00T Mauer Pauer!
D'oh, that stolen base attempt blows. Thank god for his son.
I dunno. I'm okay with the attempt. It wasn't like Casilla was thrown out by a mile (Jack Morris thought the replay showed he was clearly safe, actually), and Mauer doesn't hit for that much power. Get Casilla to second there and a single from Mauer or Morneau scores a run. 'Twas unfortunate that Casilla got caught, but as they say, no risk, no reward.
Casilla was actually on his way up from his slide into second when the tag was made. Replays clearly show he was safe.
I'm not opposed to the stolen base attempt in that situation, my comment should have read something closer to: "as an arm chair quarterback I wish I could take that SB attempt back". I still thank god for his son.Now that Chris Davis has hit a HR it blows even more. SBG's prediction may just come true.
With Livan pitching, a high scoring game is less prediction than extrapolation.
If we lose this game 2-1 I think that my head may explode.
It was a clutch CS. It put Harrison back in the windup which gave Mauer a better look at that pitch.
In fact, I credit Casilla with at least half that HR. Good job, kid.
Two things. CB Bucknor sucks at umpiring. Joe Mauer is a stud.
What a name. I always get him confused with a real estate brokerage.
Wow, 5 of 6 HRs now vs. lefties for Mauer. Strange split.
He hit two real deep into CF last night. Hit to left or right those would have been HR or XBH. ON Gameday it looked like this one took the same trajectory.
JOOOOOOOOEEE MAUUUUUEEERRRR
Livan
Livan
Mmmm, walk and a homer, that's a recipe for defense-independent runs if I ever saw one.
Perkins was flirting with trouble yesterday--3 BB, just 1 K, and 8 fly balls over six innings. It got a lot of people excited, but I'm voting fluctuation rather than concrete step forward. (It was a fun fluctuation, though.)
I agree. Didn't seem like the control was there - though apparently he's trying out this new slider, so probably he's just a genius.
The idea of Perkins throwing a slider intrigues me. It could be a pitch that gets him more swings-and-misses or more groundballs. But I'll wait 'til he starts getting results with it before I'll believe that it's actually going to be a good pitch.
How many runs will it take to move Livan and make room for Liriano?
I don't think the Twins will treat a 4-run, 6IP start any differently than they would treat a 7-run, 2.1IP start.
I think it will have to get pretty bad. I'm convinced the FO sees Liriano as insurance right now, and his agent as a pain in the ass.
So... catch me up. What does everyone think the best deal is for the Twins to make this deadline? Beltre? Blake? Atkins? South Beach? (Just kidding)
Atkins is probably completely unavailable, Beltre is essentially unobtainable, and Blake has two strikes against him (Twins already gave up on him once and would have to trade within the division.) I'm thinking no deal.
(I saw a dreamer post a Livan for Wilson Betemit rumor. That would be amazing if the Twins could pull that off.)
Did you guys know, that Hamilton guy has a great story.
I have a bookcase full of great stories. What's the big deal?
I heard that Hamilton has a library of great stories. In fact, I heard that only Yankee Stadium has more great stories than Josh Hamilton.
This guy wrote a great story, didn't live one. That's the difference.
You should read a biography of Tolkien. He actually did live a great story. He just wasn't a drug addict.
touche, but the drugs make the story.
Geoff, glad you reminded me about the free Extra Innings week. I was watching via MLB.tv -- nice to get the better quality for a change.
Fun with endpoints! Span is 1-15 going back to July 11th.
I like this, If you go not far enough back Span is like
0-11-2 tonight.that was a nice 8 pitch inning for Livan.
Livan with the six-pitch inning. Sign him to an extension!
Delmon has his OPS+ up to 100 now.
Monroe. I'll take the RBI, but if would have run out of the box instead of admiring his near home run he'd have been safe at second.
Dyoung comes through with some soft placement.
Monroe with a blessing and a curse, and then Delmon follows with an RBI.
You wrote it before I could, Twayn. Monroe keeps pissing me off.
Tony O in the booth. That guy is great.
Livan dealing right now. I suppose that this isn't good for Liriano's agent.
Tony O just called GoGo a very smart player. At least I think that's what he said.
My roommate on John Gordon's interview with Tony O: "They can't even find good questions to ask about getting old."
And, I feel like I must have heard this wrong--but did Tony Oliva really say that Gomez is a really smart player?
The Mountie!
Walk did haunt. Attaboy Morneau!
Amazing prediction on Morneau's double
Terrible play by play by Gordo, but MOUNTIE! Is he man, or ANIMAL???
Why, he's both, of course.
Pretty sure Burroughs never won a home run contest, either.
Board Game not fast enough to take advantage of Morneau's bobble.
We got the good Livan today?
Dread-Pirate!
Delmonate!
Holy crap Deluge just clobbered that ball!
D young! Some huge placement there.
I love it when it's placed over the fence.
Where's the Hell freezing over graphic?
Delmonstrative.
Oh boy, beating up on Texas pitchers is fun.
not getting beat upon by Texas hitters is also fun.