La Velle E. Neal III reports that a trade for Beltre doesn’t look possible. Everything he writes is perfectly reasonble:
The Twins recently contacted the Mariners about Beltre’s availability, but it looks like the Mariners’ price would be too high - something like the return the A’s got in the Joe Blanton deal. The Phillies gave up two of their top four prospects, along with a third minor leaguer, to get Blanton.
In the Twins’ case, it could mean one of their four young starters plus a couple prospects.
I think that's probably a fair price for Beltre since I think Beltre is more valuable than Blanton and I think the Phillies overpaid a bit for Blanton (though I don't think they got completely hosed.) Plus, when Beltre leaves via free agency after 2009, he's worth two high draft picks. I don't think that aspect can be underemphasized--while the Twins would have to give up good prospects, they would eventually get good prospects back.
Although the Mariners kicked Richie Sexson to the curb, they want to contend in the near future. Beltre is one of their decent players in an underachieving lineup. And he’s their best glove in the infield. So it would take a lot to get him.
I think this also makes sense. The Mariners can support a very large payroll and their division is not that strong. They shouldn't have to sell off a player who will help them win games.
Two other things to consider: Seattle didn’t do well with the Erik Bedard trade and probably feel pressured to make up for it. And they have a new GM in Lee Pelekoudas who probably wants to make a big splash.
There's probably some truth to this, but I would think that the bigger factor is that Pelekoudas isn't exactly the new GM--he's the interim GM and probably won't want to do something major unless it is obviously a good move.
Overall, I bet the Twins and Mariners could come up with a trade that would make sense--one that would help the Twins now, help the Mariners in the long-term, and would generally make good baseball sense. However, that trade would ultimately put more of a financial burden on the Twins than the Mariners, and payroll dollars are a more scarce resource for the Twins than they are for the Mariners.
So while it would make baseball sense for the Twins to trade for Beltre, it doesn't make good economic sense and that would ultimately hurt the Twins in the win column. Just another reminder that parity is still a dream.
Aw crap, this is probably correct. If I were the Twins, though, I'd keep my ear to the ground on this deal anyway. I would think that Seattle would love to move him and avoid his salary next year. They are going to be in full rebuild mode (aren't they???) and he's the kind of player that you jettison if you are in full rebuild mode. The Yankees don't want or need him, the Sox don't need him... if he's still available on July 31, the Twins better have those internal discussions again. But, yes, the four young starters have to be off limits (five, including Liriano).
I don't think the Mariners will be in full rebuild mode. Talent-wise, they're probably about a .500 team right now and they can probably make themselves a lot better just by moving Ibanez to DH, and adding a good LF and 1B.
Basically, if they hired me to GM the Mariners tomorrow (which they absolutely should do), my to-do list would be something like this:
- Move Ibanez to DH and get his -20 run/year glove out of LF
- See if I can get something for Washburn at the deadline, put Ryan-Rowland Smith in Washburn's rotation spot and basically lose nothing
- See what I can get for Betancourt, who I could see being overrated by some clubs, pick up a no-hit, all-glove SS to help shore up the defense
- Hope that Lopez can continue to be a league average hitter and doesn't wind up as the new Luis Rivas
- See what I can get for J.J. Putz--if not before the trade deadline, then in the off-season
- Make a big run at Teixeira (Sexson's salary plus Washburn's salary should give me a good chunk of payroll to do this), probably lose out to an east coast team, try to find a good glove/decent hitting first baseman (it should be ridiculously easy to improve upon what they've gotten out of first base this year)
- Add a halfway decent LF (hell, TynyLF and RaulDH would be a huge improvement over RaulLF and VidroDH)
Between what I could get in trades for Washburn, Betancourt, and Putz and adding some guys that just don' t totally suck, I think I could have the M's in shape to compete in 2009 without sacrificing a whole lot. If it didn't work out, then I could trade Beltre and Bedard mid-way through next season for something somewhat more than the two picks I would get for each of them in the 2010 draft.
But, yes, the four young starters have to be off limits (five, including Liriano).
Yes. Seattle needs to keep their mitts off our pitchers. Consider me a protective big sister, if you will.
Well, I think we can probably be incrementally more optimistic about this. First of all, what the the A's really get for Blanton? (In part, I'm truly asking - I'm not a NL guy.) My understanding is that they got the 3rd and 4th best prospects in a minor league system that sucks, kind of like getting Humber and Mulvey. (Or is it Mulber and Humvey? Am I the only one that jumbles their names?) I think only one was on even a top 100 prospect list. I also seem to recall that they were mostly in the low minors, or at least that none of them are yet to AAA.
Frankly, if I was the GM in Seattle (or Oakland, for that matter), I'd take any of the Twins four current young pitchers over that package right now. Especially if I thought I had a chance to turn around this ballclub in a shorter period of time.
Now, the fact is that maybe Seattle could do better for Beltre from other teams. I'm not sure. But it does seem like more 3B are likely to be on the market this year than in year's past. If the Twins are truly just looking for some right-handed pop from the hot corner, the might be able to accomplish that without turning over 3B full time to Beltre. But I sure would love to see his contract season next year happen in a Twins uniform.
I went over the basics on the Blanton trade here, Geek.
the Athletics Nation consensus seems to be "good trade" for the A's. Cardenas immediately becomes one of the best hitters in the A's minor-league system [which, to be fair, isn't exactly a screaming accomplishment] and the heir apparent to Mark Ellis. Outman could be in the mix for the big club as early as next year, probably in middle relief although he's got starter stuff. Spencer is the furthest away but appears to have big-time tools.
If the A's get one ML regular out of those three, the trade is validated. But I think they have a good chance to get two.
One difference from Beltre is that Blanton isn't expensive yet. 2008 is his first arbitration year. That would seem to be a point in favor of a lower price for Beltre, all else constant.
On the other hand, quality 3Bs seem to be a darned sight rarer than average starting pitchers. Case in point: Pedro Feliz got a 2-year, $8.5 million deal from the Phillies this off-season. Feliz currently ranks 19th among qualified 3bs in Runs Created (Beltre is 9th), 20th in GPA (Beltre is 11th)