Not That Worried About Cuddyer’s Injury
Posted by ubelmann on Saturday, August 9th, 2008 at 3:16 am
Going into the season, PECOTA projected Cuddyer to be about 12-13 runs above replacement level over the course of the entire season. From 2003-2007, UZR had Cuddyer at -9 runs/150G in right field, and it seems highly unlikely that he's getting any better in the field.
Cuddyer had a very nice 2006 and a decent 2007. Those, however, were his age 27 and 28 seasons, and he might never hit that well again. By EQA, those are the only seasons he's ever been an above average hitter and he plays poor defense in a corner position. There are ways that he could help out the team, and not having him available gives the team less flexibility, but I fear that the Twins don't realize how much his poor defense hurts his value and wouldn't put him in the situations most well suited to his skills.
When you consider offense and defense, the only player the Twins have consistently put on the field who has been well below replacement level is Mike Lamb, and Gardenhire has significantly limited Lamb's role with the team. Since Cuddyer's not much above replacement level, putting him back on the field wouldn't really push anyone out of the way who is significantly worse than him. Additionally, putting Cuddyer back on the field would probably lead to a lot of defensive configurations that are worse than the non-Cuddyer defenses. One way the Twins can make the bullpen less of a problem is to run out a better defense to keep early runs off the board and keep the starting pitchers on the mound longer to eliminate the middle man. This isn't the 2001 Twins--we could use a little extra defense here and there.
I feel for Cuddyer--it really sucks having to sit out due to injury, and he seems to get injured quite a bit, plus he seems like a good guy--but I don't think this is a huge blow to the team's chances of winning.
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Obviously, range is more important than arm. But how much more important is it, in numbers? Cuddyer has the best arm on the team, and one of the best in the league. Does it make much of a difference?
Cuddyer has had an elite arm, and I probably don't give it enough credit just because non-elite arms aren't worth much. His arm is probably worth something like 10 runs above average over the course of a season. Overall, in the past he's been something like an average fielder. After the hand injuries this season, though, I'm also not sure I would count on him being able to throw as well as he has in the past.
My problems with having a no-glove/all-arm outfielder is that you tie up a ton of your defensive value in a few plays, some of which are simply a matter of making stupid teams pay for dumb baserunning, and by not getting as many outs* you're making the pitchers work harder for the same result.
*Each time you throw someone out on the bases, it's worth a lot, so it takes fewer of those outs to get to the same run value as a guy who is getting the same overall run value by being a more balanced fielder. It's a bit like being a high-OBP, low-SLG hitter.
So I probably don't give Cuddyer enough credit for his arm, but I've got reservations about how well he is going to be able to keep that value going forward.
Moss agrees with you, ubes. Cuddy wasn't providing much power and it seems unlikely that the switch would go on anytime soon, given the hand injury. And it has been fun seeing Span play good defense out there in RF.
Again, it's too bad the Twins wouldn't consider letting Cuddy get comfy over at 3B.
My thoughts on the 3B as well, Moss.
Ready! Aim! Cudd- aw, cr@p...
ditto makes three. Or at 2b before that.
I hate to agree overall with ubes because I've always liked Cuddy. But, uh, what he said.
Sadly, not much seems to be cooking in the minors at either 3b or OF.
->Matt Moses (238/303/336 at NB) appears to be done. Moses is still only 23, but hasn't had an OPS over 750 since a 73-game stint at Ft Myers in 2005.
-> there's slightly more hope for David Winfree (226/301/401 at NB). Winfree is even younger at 22, and this is his second season at NB. But he's been hot in August so far (375/407/583 in 27 PA) and he had a solid July (263/381/412), with more walks (16) than Ks (15). He's gotta go to Rochester to start 2009, right??
->Dustin Martin has hit reasonably well this year at NB (289/360/433), but he's already 24. That's not a lot of power from a big guy, but I like the OBP. He needs to go to Rochester.
->Erik Lis (271/307/458) and Brock Peterson (254/321/421)are both 24 as well and both at NB and both have OPSs under 800. Is it any wonder that the Twins chose minor league journeyman Randy Ruiz to bring up?
New Britain's best hitter was Luke Hughes (316/384/553). He's now tearing it up at Rochester (323/364/548 in 33 PA), playing 3b according to Minor League Splits. His cumulative MLE for the year is a very nice 265/330/434. Not a big guy, but he'll merit a September callup if he keeps going at a high level. Or earlier if Buscher/Harris falls off a cliff. Cumulative against lefties this year, he is hitting a Bondsian 398/470/716 in 100 PA.
New Britain's second-best hitter has been Steven Tolleson (310/397/460). He's another middle infielder who needs a promotion. (he's 24). But he's another slap hitter (51 pct GB).
You've forgotten about Danny Valencia, who is Seth's No. 6 prospect and he's been playing almost exclusively 3b. He's cooled off after being promoted to New Britain, but he has a very solid .305/.362/.470 career line in the minors.
true, I skipped over him. Valencia turns 24 next month and is seeing his first AA action.
over the last month at NB, he's 327/359/490, which is pretty nice. But a 49:13 K:BB ratio in 194 PA at NB does raise a bit of concern. He's not exactly young for the level.
Hopefully they will be able to get one competent ML 3b soon (in the next year or so) out of Hughes, Winfree and Valencia.
I'm not so sure that Cuddyer would ever have been a good defensive 3B. When he finally moved to RF for good, it was after having the miniscus in his right knee surgically repaired, which has probably slowed him down some. Between that, the deafness in his left ear, and his general lack of athleticism, I'm thinking that Cuddyer would always have been a liability in the field at third base.
I hope as a dissenter I don't get stoned. I think a healthy Cuddy would have helped this team alot.
We still lack any semblance of power from the right side of the plate (apologies to Randy Ruiz). Gomez has been better batting in the 9th spot but his slugging is less than inspiring. His piss poor base stealing skills have made him even less valuable to this team. Gardy has already made the (intelligent) decision to bat Span at the top of the order and I don't think it would be beyond him to slide Span into center and field Cuddy in RF. You could have sent Gomez down to AAA for a month until the roster was expanded.
At this point even marginal improvements to a team could very well be the difference in making the playoffs.
I agree with that. I just don't think he's been healthy at all this year.
When is Cuddyer ever healthy, though? There's been lots of talk about Cuddyer getting jerked around by the Twins, and they certainly did their share of overreacting to a couple of slow Aprils, but Cuddyer's jerked himself around at least as much by not being able to stay healthy.
I have pretty much zero faith that Cuddyer would actually have been fully healthy when he got back from his rehab assignment, and it would take him a lot more than a week to get his timing back. He's not such a good hitter that he can sit out for that long, come back and be an impact bat.
'03 -- strained hamstring, twice
'05 -- bruised left hand, had surgery to repair lateral meniscus tear in right knee in Oct.
'07 -- sprained right thumb
'08 -- dislocated right index finger, strained tendon in left index finger, broken foot
I remember having this discussion about Koskie when the Twins were letting him leave. Koskie had been consistently injured in different ways, but kept playing in fewer and fewer games. It was never something like when a pitcher shreds his shoulder where you can obviously sit and say "there is an injury that will continue to be a problem," but he kept finding ways to injure himself. At some point, one wonders if it's really a fluke or if unathletic guys who play the game hard are just going to be more susceptible to injury.
I don't think that Cuddyer's as much of a health risk as Koskie was, but with all of those hand injuries over the last four years, I really wonder how much trouble he's going to have keeping his hands healthy going forward. Tendons and ligaments aren't that easy to heal.
Gomez has been better batting in the 9th spot but his slugging is less than inspiring.
The difference between Gomez and Cuddyer to me is that Gardenhire realizes Gomez's limitations but does not realize Cuddyer's limitations. If Gomez comes up in a key spot late in the game, Gardy will pinch hit for Gomez. If the Twins are clinging to a one-run lead in the 9th, Gardy won't put a fielder in for Cuddyer.
P.S. I hope I didn't throw any stones here.
I'm of the belief that Cuddy's defensive value has always been inflated. Sure, he has a strong and accurate arm. It's just that his mobility is like that of a cannon, too.
Span is a huge upgrade defensively.
Admit it guys you just always hated the freakin' magic tricks and you've just been looking for an excuse to dish on Cuddy.
There is no such thing as magic!
That's a matter of opinion.
You know there seems to be a lot of Span-love around these parts, and I wonder if your opinion has changed at all about Span's upside? I think you've pegged him, based upon his PECOTA projections, perhaps a capable 4th outfielder but nothing more. At this point, he sure seems like a more complete ball-player than Gomez.
I think you've pegged him, based upon his PECOTA projections, perhaps a capable 4th outfielder but nothing more.
Yeah, I think that's what I've said. This was what I wrote about him this last offseason. I was surprised that PECOTA had such a strong long-term outlook on Span (certainly a better outlook than it had on Gomez) and I stubbornly thought I knew more than PECOTA, suggesting that Span wouldn't be as good as PECOTA projected:
I think that I haven't given Span enough credit for ability to hit for average. .287 is pretty good for a guy who was drafted out of HS and advanced reasonably quickly through the system. I was worried that he was striking out too much, though, and pegged him as a guy who wouldn't hit for enough average, wouldn't walk much, but might develop some power. Power is almost always the last thing to develop, and I think we're starting to see him hit for a bit more power, and the strikeouts actually tend to be a positive indicator for untapped power.
I don't think he's going to hit .320 forever, but I could see him hitting something like .290/.370/.450 going forward, which is basically better than what Torii Hunter has hit for his career. With plus (though not elite) outfield defense, he could well turn out to be a valuable everyday player. Which is awesome.
The team has certainly performed better without Cuddyer since his injury. They are 20-15 (.571) since he got hurt this last time. Coincidentally, their record against lefty starters is also 20-15 for the season, which is slightly better when a righty starts (44-36). If Cuddyer is officially ruled out for the season, they need to switch Span to left and Young to right. I would think Young would be more comfortable in right and would have less space to cover, at least in the dome, plus his arm would be more valuable there. Having Span and Gomez in left and center would be like having Jacque Jones and Torii Hunter out there circa 2001-02 when the Twins' defense was truly special.
They seem to not make changes like that during the regular season (they didn't switch Jacque Jones and Shannon Stewart until after 2003) but I would agree that Span in LF and Young in RF would be the better arrangement. That's more of a minor concern compared to just having Span out there in general.