Yeah, I think that's what I've said. This was what I wrote about him this last offseason. I was surprised that PECOTA had such a strong long-term outlook on Span (certainly a better outlook than it had on Gomez) and I stubbornly thought I knew more than PECOTA, suggesting that Span wouldn't be as good as PECOTA projected:

I tend to think that Span can eventually be a replacement level hitter in the majors. If he can play good defense, then for the minimum, that's a decent 4th outfielder. It's not what you really want out of a #1 draft pick, but that's what we've got on our hands. I don't like his chances of becoming a league average player as much as PECOTA, but I guess that possibility lingers.

I think that I haven't given Span enough credit for ability to hit for average. .287 is pretty good for a guy who was drafted out of HS and advanced reasonably quickly through the system. I was worried that he was striking out too much, though, and pegged him as a guy who wouldn't hit for enough average, wouldn't walk much, but might develop some power. Power is almost always the last thing to develop, and I think we're starting to see him hit for a bit more power, and the strikeouts actually tend to be a positive indicator for untapped power.

I don't think he's going to hit .320 forever, but I could see him hitting something like .290/.370/.450 going forward, which is basically better than what Torii Hunter has hit for his career. With plus (though not elite) outfield defense, he could well turn out to be a valuable everyday player. Which is awesome.

over the last month at NB, he's 327/359/490, which is pretty nice. But a 49:13 K:BB ratio in 194 PA at NB does raise a bit of concern. He's not exactly young for the level.

Hopefully they will be able to get one competent ML 3b soon (in the next year or so) out of Hughes, Winfree and Valencia.

My problems with having a no-glove/all-arm outfielder is that you tie up a ton of your defensive value in a few plays, some of which are simply a matter of making stupid teams pay for dumb baserunning, and by not getting as many outs* you're making the pitchers work harder for the same result.

*Each time you throw someone out on the bases, it's worth a lot, so it takes fewer of those outs to get to the same run value as a guy who is getting the same overall run value by being a more balanced fielder. It's a bit like being a high-OBP, low-SLG hitter.

So I probably don't give Cuddyer enough credit for his arm, but I've got reservations about how well he is going to be able to keep that value going forward.

I have pretty much zero faith that Cuddyer would actually have been fully healthy when he got back from his rehab assignment, and it would take him a lot more than a week to get his timing back. He's not such a good hitter that he can sit out for that long, come back and be an impact bat.

'03 -- strained hamstring, twice
'05 -- bruised left hand, had surgery to repair lateral meniscus tear in right knee in Oct.
'07 -- sprained right thumb
'08 -- dislocated right index finger, strained tendon in left index finger, broken foot

I remember having this discussion about Koskie when the Twins were letting him leave. Koskie had been consistently injured in different ways, but kept playing in fewer and fewer games. It was never something like when a pitcher shreds his shoulder where you can obviously sit and say "there is an injury that will continue to be a problem," but he kept finding ways to injure himself. At some point, one wonders if it's really a fluke or if unathletic guys who play the game hard are just going to be more susceptible to injury.

I don't think that Cuddyer's as much of a health risk as Koskie was, but with all of those hand injuries over the last four years, I really wonder how much trouble he's going to have keeping his hands healthy going forward. Tendons and ligaments aren't that easy to heal.

Gomez has been better batting in the 9th spot but his slugging is less than inspiring.

The difference between Gomez and Cuddyer to me is that Gardenhire realizes Gomez's limitations but does not realize Cuddyer's limitations. If Gomez comes up in a key spot late in the game, Gardy will pinch hit for Gomez. If the Twins are clinging to a one-run lead in the 9th, Gardy won't put a fielder in for Cuddyer.

I hate to agree overall with ubes because I've always liked Cuddy. But, uh, what he said.

Sadly, not much seems to be cooking in the minors at either 3b or OF.

->Matt Moses (238/303/336 at NB) appears to be done. Moses is still only 23, but hasn't had an OPS over 750 since a 73-game stint at Ft Myers in 2005.
-> there's slightly more hope for David Winfree (226/301/401 at NB). Winfree is even younger at 22, and this is his second season at NB. But he's been hot in August so far (375/407/583 in 27 PA) and he had a solid July (263/381/412), with more walks (16) than Ks (15). He's gotta go to Rochester to start 2009, right??

->Dustin Martin has hit reasonably well this year at NB (289/360/433), but he's already 24. That's not a lot of power from a big guy, but I like the OBP. He needs to go to Rochester.
->Erik Lis (271/307/458) and Brock Peterson (254/321/421)are both 24 as well and both at NB and both have OPSs under 800. Is it any wonder that the Twins chose minor league journeyman Randy Ruiz to bring up?

New Britain's best hitter was Luke Hughes (316/384/553). He's now tearing it up at Rochester (323/364/548 in 33 PA), playing 3b according to Minor League Splits. His cumulative MLE for the year is a very nice 265/330/434. Not a big guy, but he'll merit a September callup if he keeps going at a high level. Or earlier if Buscher/Harris falls off a cliff. Cumulative against lefties this year, he is hitting a Bondsian 398/470/716 in 100 PA.

New Britain's second-best hitter has been Steven Tolleson (310/397/460). He's another middle infielder who needs a promotion. (he's 24). But he's another slap hitter (51 pct GB).

We still lack any semblance of power from the right side of the plate (apologies to Randy Ruiz). Gomez has been better batting in the 9th spot but his slugging is less than inspiring. His piss poor base stealing skills have made him even less valuable to this team. Gardy has already made the (intelligent) decision to bat Span at the top of the order and I don't think it would be beyond him to slide Span into center and field Cuddy in RF. You could have sent Gomez down to AAA for a month until the roster was expanded.

At this point even marginal improvements to a team could very well be the difference in making the playoffs.

Ready! Aim! Cudd- aw, cr@p...

Again, it's too bad the Twins wouldn't consider letting Cuddy get comfy over at 3B.