I'm not sure if this is a good or bad sign (about me), but I couldn't not post this comment I ran across:
Jones was only +3 runs according to Dewan's +/- system
Carlos Gomez led CFers with +33.
Above average for CF is nothing to sneeze at.
by G_ on Sep 29, 2008 11:46 AM PDT reply 0 recs
I'll leave it as a homework problem or something to find Dewan's +/- rankings to double-check that, since I'm short on time. If it's true (not really any reason to believe someone would lie about this), and it's an accurate assessment (more difficult to say), it's crazy. It would essentially make Gomez the Mark Belanger of modern-day CF.
Dewan's system is independent of The Hardball Times' RZR and OOZ metrics, and Gomez had the second-best RZR in the league and the most out-of-zone plays in the league.
When I watch Gomez play, I do not see a fantastic defender, but there are the numbers refusing to agree with me. The Twins actually finished the season with a non-abysmal defensive efficiency, and it certainly wasn't because their infield was great. The Twins have a flyball-heavy staff, but not the most extreme in the AL and in the same vicinity as some other teams, so that would only partially explain Gomez being 33 runs above average for one of the most important defensive positions on the field.
As Jeff Sullivan mentions, if this is accurate, that makes Gomez something like a 1.0 to 1.5-win above average player over the course of the season, even with the banjo hitting. For comparison, Santana (at least according to tRA and PRAA) was about 20 runs above average for a pitcher this year, making him about a 2-win above average player.
So in just considering this year, if Gomez was really that good on defense, the Twins only lost about 0.5-1.0 win by trading Santana, and they saved roughly $19M, which they used to employ various other players. Whether or not Pohlad is being a miser, the front office is strapped in to the budget he gives them, and it impresses me that they can make moves like this. (The Delmon trade, on the other hand, I'm still thinking was a bad idea.)
Also, with Gomez potentially GG-caliber in CF, I'm wondering if Span doesn't get a more permanent move to LF, just like the Jones-Hunter situation at the turn of the century.
I think this is an instance where the ends justify the means. Gomez may look lost out in CF sometimes, but he still manages to catch everything.
I agree. His speed allows him to recover from "lost" moments more often than the usual player.
I think Gomez's numbers are inflated because he's had a LF with no range for the entire season and half of a season with a RF with no range.
I do agree that Gomez doesn't look like a great CF but I think his athletic ability does more than make up for his poor jumps.
Rank Player +/-
1 Carlos Gomez +33
2 Carlos Beltran +24
3 Chris Young +23
4 Cody Ross +15
5 Jody Gerut +12
6 Alex Rios +11
7 Shane Victorino +10
8 Mike Cameron +8
9 Corey Patterson +8
10 Grady Sizemore +7
My understanding, though, is that "+33" in the Dewan system is 33 plays made above the average CF, not runs saved. I would assume that a play made by an OF is worth about 0.5-0.6 runs (since many of the catches Gomez makes would otherwise be doubles), but I don't really have any idea.
It surprises me that anyone could see Gomez on a regular basis and not think he's a great CF. Yeah, he makes some dumb mistakes (which just means he has the potential to be even greater), but he also makes catches that no one else on the planet could make. Like the 9th-inning AJ flyout back in the heady days of last Thursday. I think he's clearly the best in the league right now--probably not enough to make him "above average" overall, but enough to make him a useful player now (if only thanks to his .296/.337/.481 September) and a potential superstar.
It surprises me that anyone could see Gomez on a regular basis and not think he's a great CF.
That surprises me too. He tracks down everything out there. It might be that he doesn't make as many remarkable diving catches as, say, Hunter did. But I think this stems from the fact that by the time the camera cuts to the outfield on a line drive, Gomez has already made up significant ground on the ball so watching on TV we aren't able to see just how far he goes to catch some of these things.
That catch on A.J.'s ninth-inning liner was right up there with the best catches I ever saw from Hunter, and considering the significance, it might have been better than any of them.
I think, too, that, as some have already mentioned, a lot of the reason why he doesn't "look" like a great outfielder is that he isn't really a smooth outfielder. He'll look awkward sometimes, and take some strange routes, and so even though he makes the catch, people don't think of him as very sure out there.
Because we don't have "established" defensive stats the way we do offensive stats, people still tend to judge a player's defense not so much by the number of plays he makes as by how he looks making them. Until Gomez starts to look more polished, he won't get as much credit for his defense as he deserves.
probably not enough to make him "above average" overall, but enough to make him a useful player now
Certainly enough not to miss Torii out there.
A couple of things: Coco Crisp had the best Dewan +/- last year for center fielders with +26. So +33 seems pretty impressive. I can't seem to find where I read it, but somebody calculated that a missed potential out is worth .78 (iirc) runs. Around .5 for the extra baserunner + the rest for having to get that out again.
Carlos' routes don't seem nearly as bad as they were in the early part of the year. They're still not great, but his speed makes up for a lot of mistakes.
Gomez's improved hitting actually seems to have started in late July when Gardy moved him to the 9 hole.
March 31 - July 21: .247 .281 .345 Batting 1st
July 22 - August 31: .278 .327 .330 Batting 9th
September 1 - September 29: .296 .337 .481 Batting 9th
That's a pretty nice rate of improvement. I doubt we can expect the September numbers to be the norm, but if he can figure out how to either hit or lay off breaking balls he'll cut way down on the strikeouts and probably up his walk rate. Justin has done it, so it's not impossible. And if Carlos can keep getting on-base at around MLB average rate of .330 or so and learn to read the pitcher so he has a better stolen base percentage, he could be even more of a threat on the bases.
That play on Pierzynski was an eye opener. Wow.