2008-09 Game 9: Wolves @ Nuggets

November 16th, 2008 by SBG

<SBG> Last night, our friend GreekHouse posited that the Wolves would drop a home game to a team on the back end of a back-to-back when the Wolves were rested. That's a measure of how bad the Wolves have been playing. Nope, that didn't happen. The Blazers looked sluggish, but at money time, they cleared their collective head and dispatched the Wolves. Somehow, a 20 point loss might have been easier to take.

I didn't get a preview put together for last night's game. I had intended to write something fairly positive. Last year, the Wolves were one of the very worst teams in the league offensively and defensively. So far this year, the Wolves are one of the worst team in the league defensively, but surprisingly are kind of a middle of the road team in terms of offensive efficiency. I think this is a testament to a good start offensively by Mike Miller. The guy can shoot and he's off to a great start throwing the rock in the hole. He's shooting almost 51% overall and 42% from three. That puts him at 1.31 points per shot and a true shooting percentage of 60.5(!). In case you think this is some kind of fluke, each of those numbers are right about where he was last year. Miller is never going to be a superstar, but he provides value and would be an excellent addition to a good team. Unfortunately for him, he's stuck on this club. I guess he'll have to console himself with his millions.

It's too bad that Rashad McCan't and Randy Foye have been sucking so much air. Foye is producing well less than a point per shot (0.82) and McCan't isn't much better (1.03). Combined, these two are taking over 23 shots a game and converting about 35% of those shots. Oy. Watching Foye suck is really painful when Brandon Roy comes to town.

Speaking of pain, O.J. Mayo continues to look like he's going to be a helluva player. Through ten games, he's logging almost 40 minutes a game and is throwing in 21.0 points per. He's also efficient (55.1 TS%). He is putting the shoot in the position of shooting guard (2.4 assists per 40 minutes), but hey, it's not like he's dragging down his club like McCan't or Foye. Meanwhile, Kevin Love has been okay, but he's only getting 25 minutes. Mayo is The Man on his club. Love is forcing The Man on this club to play out of position. Yep, the Wolves also got Miller, who's not chopped liver, but this isn't about finding complementary players, it's about finding franchise building blocks. Mayo would have been a great addition to BAJ. Instead, we have Love, a poor man's BAJ (who can pass).

Close your eyes and imagine -- BAJ at the four, Roy at the three, Mayo at the two. This club could be in position to go forward. Instead, we'll be lost in the wilderness for a couple more years.

Tonight, it's Denver. They just picked up Chauncey Billups to go along with Carmelo Anthony. I'm not a big fan of Anthony's, but I do like Billups paired up with him as opposed to Iverson. I like Denver by a lot tonight.</SBG>



This entry was posted by SBG on Sunday, November 16th, 2008 at 6:00 pm and is filed under 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs. It is one of 2471 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.



Comments Feed27 Letters to the Editor

GreekHouse replied on November 16, 2008 at 6:31:05 pm

I didn't quite get around to adding to this because Petey is in town visiting me and we're going to drink white russians and watch the Wolves just like the old days.

About Miller, I've written about this concept before, but the most efficient offense is basically going to have each and every players averaging the same percentage from the field (or I suppose, the same eFG% or pps or something). The more a player shoots, the lower his shooting percentage will be and the more a player shoots, the higher his percentage will be. So if one player on your team is shooting 60% and another is shooting 40%, the 60% player should be more and the 40% player shooting less. I even used to complaing when KG's shooting percentage was too high because it just meant he wasn't getting enough shots. Miller is the same. Although he's been shooting well, he hasn't been shooting nearly enough. As he shoots more, his percentage will go down and that's fine. McCan't needs to realize that he's not Kobe and learn how to pass the ball occasionally.

ubelmann replied on November 17, 2008 at 12:06:54 am

That seems completely reasonable on general grounds. In a similar vein, it seems like Love is being woefully underutilized. From 82games, the team is doing slightly better than average with Love on the court and getting beaten badly with him on the bench. (Usual +/- caveats apply: small sample size and +/- is dependent upon teammates and quality of opposition.) Also, from the breakdown, the Wolves have been no worse off defensively with him on the floor, but have been much better offensively when he is out there.

Now, potentially Wittman really knows what he's doing (heh) and keeping Love out of matchups that would really kill him, and the team would be even worse with Love out there than they've been with Love on the bench. What seems more likely to me is that Wittman sees a rookie with some flaws in his game and figures that he has to be really conservative with his usage. It took the Twins about 1/3rd of the season to finally ditch Castro and Batista for Bartlett and Punto...so I'll set the over/under on when Love gets more minutes around the 27th or 28th game, which could also be the 26th or 27th loss, apparently.

Also interesting from the 82games data, is the player pairs for the Wolves. The green coding is really interesting--basically if a player has a green column under his name, then his teammates have played better with him on the floor than with him off the floor. Presumably these are the sorts of players who "make their teammates better." It seems to be mostly scattershot, except that BAJ and Love seem to make their teammates better, while Gomes and Smith seem to make their teammates worse. It could be a sample size fluke and it could be some kind of systematic bias (Love's teammates look better with him b/c they are playing against the 2nd unit or something), but considering that one of the biggest selling points on Love is that he's supposed to be a good passer and a generally smart player, it's difficult for me to see how Wittman is getting the impression that Love needs to be stashed away on the bench.

If anything, it's a little bizarre that Wittman is getting a negative impression of Love when the team is doing well with Love on the floor. Certainly in baseball, you see the opposite happen a lot, where a team will fall in love with a guy saying "I don't care what his stats are, we just win when he is out there" regardless of how much that individual has to do with the success. Love's numbers will likely get worse with increased minutes, but the bar isn't exactly set high at the moment.

frightwig replied on November 29, 2008 at 10:44:27 pm

What seems more likely to me is that Wittman sees a rookie with some flaws in his game and figures that he has to be really conservative with his usage.

From the pair of games I've seen, the flaws in Love's game are that he's slow, can't jump, and gets out-muscled down low, so he has trouble creating a shot unless he's wide open. Whenever the coach does decide to increase his minutes, I'd expect these problems to become a real drag on the team--and I'm not sure what Love can really do to get better. Maybe if he gets stronger, he'll be a better rebounder. But anyone with feet of cement is going to have trouble becoming anything more than a bit player in the NBA.

 
 
 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 7:22:42 pm

Five minutes in and the Wolves are getting pasted.

 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 7:42:31 pm

End of one, 27-17 Denver.

 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 7:54:19 pm

Boy, Anthony Carter sucks. Wolves back in it.

E-6 replied on November 16, 2008 at 8:39:39 pm

Still, I'll never forget that playoff game against the 49ers. ;)

 
 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 8:29:11 pm

Early third and this is a two point game. Neither team is shooting worth a darn, but the Wolves are in it.

 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 8:34:04 pm

A second half lead here. Hey!

E-6 replied on November 16, 2008 at 8:41:16 pm

They never blow these...

SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 8:52:20 pm

Yeah, it's been what, 24 hours since the last time they did that???

 
 
 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 8:44:30 pm

Really good third quarter here tonight for the Wolves.

GreekHouse replied on November 16, 2008 at 8:50:37 pm

I'm liking this right now. I should always drink white russians when I'm watching the Wolves.

That one shot by BAJ was sick. It was like a set in volleyball. He knew he was gonna get fouled and came up with the only possible shot that would get him an "and one".

 
 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 8:56:10 pm

Not a good way to close out the quarter. Yuck to those last couple of minutes.

 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:10:44 pm

9 point lead with a little over half of the fourth left? Could it be??

 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:23:22 pm

2:30 left and Denver's leading.

 
Whiffers replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:26:11 pm

Haven't been able to watch much tonight. How's Love looked tonight? I noticed he's been abducted by strangers and is unavailable in the 4th quarter again. Instead we get Craig Smith at the 4...getting out rebounded.

Oh, now Collins is in. Better than Smith, but still, where the F is Love?

SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:31:29 pm

Not on the floor much at all. 16 minutes is all, I think.

Denver on at 17-2 run down the stretch. Quelle surprise!

 
 
E-6 replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:32:01 pm

17-2 run for DEN. Way to close it out, fellas.

 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:32:47 pm

Randy Wittman not a reader of the WGOM. Four shots for Miller tonight.

cheaptoy replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:35:38 pm

Wittman also not a reader of Basketball Strategy for Dummies, either, it seems.

 
 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:34:47 pm

Great shot on TV. Wolves have kicked this away. Billups on the line. In the background McCan't pointing at his flexed bicep. Heh.

E-6 replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:39:16 pm

Shoddy's next tattoo should be a capital "L" on his forehead. What a schmuck...

 
 
Whiffers replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:35:01 pm

This has nothing to do with anything that is happening on the court right now, but I was thinking about the mythical "basketball IQ" and the Wolves. This was after watching Brewer run like a chicken with its head cut off on a break, but how many Wolves players would you say have an above average (or even average, sadly) basketball IQ?

I came up with Love, Ollie, and Gomes off the top of my head. The rest just don't seem to have a clue all too often for whatever reason.

SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:39:42 pm

I think BAJ has some smarts. Doesn't move his feet much on defense, but he's got a very polished low post game.

Whiffers replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:43:07 pm

His cluelessness on the defensive end keeps him off my list. Damn good post player though, no doubt; he's quick, strong, and creative.

 
 
 
SBG replied on November 16, 2008 at 9:42:13 pm

There you have it. Up by nine with about 6 minutes left, lose by six. That sound you hear is the remaining fan base slowly backing away from this club.

 

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