Give him less than $2M and only commit for one year.
.264/.334/.447 -- Casey Blake, career, age 35
.230/.328/.485 -- Russell Branyan, career, age 33
Blake is somewhat better defensively--though still a poor defender at third base--and Branyan has more power. Branyan would also need to be platooned somewhat more. Still, the difference between these two players is very, very small. Blake is going to get a huge contract and Branyan was snatched up for so little that it hardly counts as a contract.
I think it's also worth pointing out:
.250/.342/.583, 138 OPS+ -- Branyan, 2008
.235/.276/.320, 63 OPS+ -- Lamb, 2008
Branyan has a better career OPS than Lamb by quite a bit--109 to 93--and both are poor defensive third basemen. The Brewers were able to get Branyan for a minor league contract last year and the Twins are still paying Mike Lamb on his $6M/2yr deal.
Looking at the situation now, Buscher is probably a bad enough defensive third baseman that it would have made sense to bring Branyan in as the lefty half of a 3rd-base platoon, especially at a price like this. (And with the Twins being far more competitive than the Mariners, I would have trouble swallowing any hypothesis that Branyan wouldn't have signed for the same amount of money in Minnesota.) And I really wouldn't worry about Branyan being left-handed either, since he would be expected to platoon. He could also have been an intriguing option as a pinch-hitter.
Signing Casey Blake is going to be the equivalent of buying Toasty O's at Cheerios prices. There's nothing wrong with eating Toasty O's, but if you're going to eat Toasty O's, pay the Toasty O's price. Every next day it seems like the Twins might still sign Blake makes me more and more grumpy.
Signing Casey Blake is going to be the equivalent of buying Toasty O's at Cheerios prices.
In all seriousness, they can't pay 10 million a year for Blake, can they? I mean, there are laws in place to prevent that, right? Right??!!
Joe C is reporting $6 mil per for two years with an option was the Twins' offer.
$12M over two year for Blake is freaking preposterous for a team with a $60M payroll. Or even an $80M payroll. That would make him about 7.5-10% of the total payroll and 11-17% of the marginal payroll.
And that's even supposing that Blake would accept that offer and Blake wouldn't be able to push for more. A $12M/2yr offer really isn't far from the $15M/2yr that we owe Cuddyer over the balance of his contract. At least Cuddyer is five years younger, and I'll even give him points for being a team leader and whatnot, but there's no way we should be paying Blake anything in the same universe as what we're paying Cuddyer.
I just really find it hard to wrap my head around the Twins bringing Blake back when they have their very own 28-year-old version in Brendan Harris. If they are so against a platoon at third base, they should just give it to Harris full time. At least that would acknowledge that they've realized that Harris is not a shortstop.
I have no problem with signing Blake as long as the third year isn't guaranteed. Branyan has never been able to keep a regular job and doesn't solve the Twins problem of a need for right-handed power. Blake can hit lefties well (Branyan can't hit them at all) and has become a better hitter against right handers the last three years. Blake has also been a much better hitter on the road the last several years and has a reputation as a clutch hitter (whether that's true or not).
Also, Lamb was a good signing that turned disastrous. I really liked that signing a lot more than any other signing a year ago.
Lamb was an overpay. There was no reason to expect him to be any better than Branyan last year and Branyan was right there for the taking.
.265/.332/.423 -- Lamb, 2008 PECOTA forecast
.214/.330/.464 -- Branyan, 2008 PECOTA forecast
That's loads more power for Branyan with the same OBP. The Twins shouldn't be committing multiple years to bit players that age poorly. Paying anyone like Lamb multiple years is not a good idea. They had it right when they signed Rondell White to one-year deals, but now this year we're stuck paying Lamb $3M to do nothing.
Wait, are you telling me that the Mariners did something relatively smart?
I take it that the Twins are set to overpay for Blake because he is The One Who Got Away, and some in the organization may be still kicking themselves over it.
Wait, are you telling me that the Mariners did something relatively smart?
It's amazing what can happen when you get rid of Bill Bavasi. (I should note that I've seen him talk before, and he seems like an incredibly nice guy who would be a pleasure to work for. He just has no clue how to construct championship-caliber baseball teams.)
I take it that the Twins are set to overpay for Blake because he is The One Who Got Away, and some in the organization may be still kicking themselves over it.
I assume that's the thinking, and maybe it's tough to see that from the inside, but it seems like there would be a couple people in there who would stop and say: "Are we sure that we're going after this guy for strictly baseball reasons?"
It's getting to be a little weird how there is a growing dichotomy between how much the front office values defense and how much the field staff values defense. Last offseason they brought on Gomez and Everett, who both should have been good defenders, but Everett got hurt. But aside from that, they only needed Everett because they traded away their best SS, and they invested heavily (through trades or contract extensions) in three guys (Cuddyer, Delmon, Morneau) who have very, very little defensive value. And they invested less heavily in two guys (Harris, Lamb) who wound up being just as bad--if not worse--than Castro-Batista on the left side of the infield. Going back to Batista, it seems like the Twins have managed to overestimate some players' defensive abilities in the offseason, and then the field staff has to change things around in June or so when it becomes blindingly obvious that a change needs to be made.
Anyway, I digress. Maybe it's just that I've seen the Twins err more on the side of defense in the past, but I'm a lot more comfortable with getting marginal players whose strength lies more in their glove. At the very least, even if you have the same run differential, a good defense gets their pitcher off the mound and probably helps to keep the pitching staff healthy overall. (And it can help lead to some pitchers, like say Milton and Mays, being overrated, which is good if you're not the team doing the overrating.)
If they make this signing, perhaps we should subtitle the 2009 season: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love The Beard
And yes, I can promise a minimum of 162 beard references if Blake The Beard is on the opening day roster.
That is a quality beard. Notice how he neatly trims it off his neck, cuts the stragglers on the cheeks, and keeps the mustache above the lips? Plus, the hair length is all uniform. And I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on how his sideburns poorly mesh with his hair, and blame it on constant baseball cap wear.
This is exactly how (I wish) my beard looks (if it were thicker and didn't have gray sneaking in).
I'm going mountain-man right now. I've done nothing to a single hair since oct 27th or thereabouts. I should probably check some stragglers on the neck or cheeks, but I'm feeling rebellious against social norms. I'm thinking I might try to wait until the new year.
mountain-man = lazy = Rhubarb_Runner during much of the week. Eventually I can't take the neck hair scratching at my shirt collars, and neither can my shirt collars, actually.
The inevitability of having to shave inside your ears (or on top of your nose) is a bummer. I let my eyebrows run long, though, as a tribute to my grandfather and to embarass Runner daughter.
I'm growing a top of the nose beard, but I'll admit that it's not coming along very well.
that is a good thing
I'm late to the party with this comment, but oh well. I haven't shaved a single day since I was discharged two years ago. Contrary to my claims at the time, I haven't gone the Billy Gibbons route (yet), but I do vary the length between winters and summers while keeping the neck and stragglers tidy.
This is my first serious attempt at beard-growing, so I'm still working on finding an actual style that works with my particular brand of facial hair, instead of simply "a beard."
Anybody else ever notice how much Casey Blake looks like Bill Simmons w/ a beard?
My old stand-by has always been Jeff Daniels...
