Erik Bedard (09’ projected stats from PECOTA: 3.67 ERA/3.89 DERA/1.34 WHIP/117 IP)
Vs.
Nick Blackburn (09’ projects stats from PECOTA: 5.22ERA/5.32DERA/1.50WHIP/113.3 IP)
Simulations on these two pitchers vary wildly from Blackburn’s Bill James projection of 196 innings of 4.18 ERA ball to his PECOTA rates seen above. The same can be said of Bedard as well with Bill James also being especially bullish concerning Bedard’s durability expecting 180 innings from the often injured lefty. Will either of these pitchers live up to the hype of Bill James or come crashing back down to earth in the way the PECOTA suggests? The truth is that they will probably fall somewhere in the middle.
Nick Blackburn was ranked the #1 prospect in the Twins organization by Baseball America heading into the 2008 season. Many were surprised by the ranking as most pundits felt that Blackburn wouldn’t even be the best rookie starting on the team in the upcoming season. Blackburn caught Twins fans off guard by pitching well in his first season as a starter with the Twins debuting with a 4.40 FIP in 193.3 innings. Blackburn was able to do this while, in most categories, not showing any drastic changes from his minor league track record.
Minor League Avgs/ 2008
K/BB: 2.82/2.46
BB/9: 2.00/1.82
WHIP: 1.20/1.36
HR/9: 0.60/1.07
K/9: 5.6/4.5
A 2.46 K/BB rate isn’t going to light the world on fire, without a doubt, but it isn’t terrible for a rookie pitcher. The starter who Blackburn often times seem to draw comparisons to, Bob Tewksbury, didn’t reach this total until his second season. As for his BB/9, you really can’t complain when a rookie pitcher posts a better BB/9 rate in the majors than he did in the minors. Concerning his WHIP, chalk up the increase in talent level Blackburn was facing. The major concern of mine is Blackburn nearly doubled the amount of home runs he allowed per nine innings versus his minor league career totals. As for his K/9 rate, while not fantastic, I don’t believe that it is low enough to be a concern just yet.
So the question now becomes, can he sustain the success he had last season (100 ERA+) this season? Or, more to the point, can Nick Blackburn improve upon his rookie season where he was essentially a league average pitcher?
The first step that he could take, in the words of Bert, is to “keep the ball down." The information relating to Blackburn’s GB/FB rate in the minors is not available online but I think it fair to say that he fared better than he did in the majors in allowing ground balls 44.9% of the time. When Blackburn is striking out 11.66% of the batters he faces while allowing that percentage of ground balls he looks suspiciously like Jeff Suppan (11.54% K /BF, 44.4 GB %) or Scott Feldman (11.37K/BF, 43.54% GB). The most troubling statistic for Blackburn, which surely will regress to the mean this season, was his “ability” to stand runners at the rate of 70.7%.
After taking a look at those numbers, I can see why projection systems like PECOTA might be a little harsh on the 2nd year pro. Limiting him to 113 innings though; that I just don’t see.
As for Erik Bedard, I am sure that his story doesn’t need to be told to anyone. After coming over from Baltimore last off-season in exchange for a number of players equivalent to the population in Antarctica, Bedard suffered from shoulder problems which put him on the shelf in early July. When healthy, Bedard has some nasty stuff that rivals any starting lefty in the bigs (outside of Santana, naturally). While it is doubtful that he will return to his 2007 form this season (221K’s, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) he is sure to improve over a lack luster 2008 where he only started 8 games.
Enough with the numbers-- a MUST WIN for the Twins tonight if we hope to stay in the hunt for the divisional crown!
These must-win games keep popping up earlier and earlier every year. :)
This match-up makes the most nervous. I'll feel a lot better when our hitters are facing Silva and Washburn.
I am inclined to agree. I am not quite on the Blackburn train yet. I would have preferred to see Slowey here. Then again, I would prefer to see Slowey to most anyone.
I think Blackburn was going to get the 5th start, and moving Liriano to 1 and Blackburn to 2 required the least shuffling of schedules. Liriano actually threw on 3 days' rest, which may explain a little about yesterday's start.
The most troubling statistic for Blackburn, which surely will regress to the mean this season, was his “ability” to stand runners at the rate of 70.7%.
I don't think that's much of a concern. AL LOB% was 71% last year. Good pitchers are going to have the best LOB%, but with Blackburn's league-average FIP, a 71% LOB% seems about right.
Baker and Perkins on the other hand....
I suppose you were right, when I was looking up the average LOB% it took me to a site that claimed the AL average to be 58%. For future reference I will never trust blogs again.
What was your source? I'm sure HBTimes has the right numbers.
Here are the Hardball Times numbers, which I used.
Hey, I think a tutorial post on rates would be a great idea. I mean, we've heard about GB and FB rates and LD, etc. But, what are the average rates? What are good numbers? Maybe HBT has already done something like this.
Just as long as we stay away from the sub-prime ones. ;)
I just googled 2008 AL average LOB% and took the first site I found.
That seems like the rational response.
I figure it was my first game log of the year, I just need a little bit of time to warm up, right?
you're so fired...
There are A LOT of game log writers this year....
It was a solid game intro.
Thanks Ubes, I wasn't taking any of the stuff too seriously.
I concur. I would expect that by the end of the season, we'll have a whole cavalry of great game log writers. Seriously, I am really pumped up about this season. We've got seven different voices providing their thoughts about upcoming games. We've got ubelmann writing great stuff when the mood strikes him. We've got JeffA covering former Twins and the minors. We've got This Day in Twins History from socaltwinsfan. We might have a reprise of the Mugshot Purgatory. And, maybe a little Series Preview in Blog. I defy you to find any fan run website with that variety of content. Not to mention the other features that aren't Twins related like the Wellness Challenge, Beer, and Grilling. And of course, the WGOM Videos. That's a pretty fantastic lineup.
Solid.
I hadn't realized this (from Jeff at Lookout Landing):
Off the top of my head, that must be Span, Casilla, Gomez, Punto, and Morales. Weee! (Although Span and Gomez could reasonably be expected to hit around 10 this year, I think.)
i wouldn't be shocked if casilla did it either. i'd put his o/u around 8.
I'd take the under. His plate approach, especially with two strikes, is all contact.
I won't say he isn't capable of belting ten plus, just that he doesn't seem to be trying to develop a power stroke.
Casilla: 7 minor league HRs, total. And 7 in Minnesota last year. Seven last year? I didn't realize it was that many.
He had a game-changer or three, too. Not Adam Everett off Tim Wakefield, but still big.
Yes, there was one against Texas (maybe his first) that was comedy gold to listen to on the radio. Dazzle was just pleading, begging, demanding that he bunt and then he clobbered one over the fence giving Morris plenty of mocking material.
That was off Ponson! Classic.
see? if he got seven last year, ten wouldn't shock me this year.
I know there was an injury, but it's pretty comical that 2 games into the season we'll have had Redmond face the righty and Morales face the lefty.
it's comical that redmond freakishly gets hit in the back of the head by a broken bat in the first game of the year. seriously, what is it with this guy?
He asks, nay, demands injury.
Yeah, but he survived that just fine, then pulled his groin legging it to second base.
Mariners color man Mike Blowers calls Nick Blackburn a "control-type pitcher." Use a voice distortion device, and honestly, Niehaus and Blowers are the Twins announcers.
They do, however, blow my mind with one little stat: Bedard has beaten every AL team...except ours. Gulpers!
FTLT. Quality write up, although I think it could have used a bit more cowbell.
OH yeah: GO TWINS!
Blackburn with the second most GIDP induced last season; I did not know that.
in the AL? Majors?
I wasn't paying that much attention, Beuhrle was a top the list, so it might have just been AL. Did anyone else see that?
AL. Beuhrle was first with 34 while Blackburn had 31. King F*&!@ was third I think with 28.
Delmon got to that ball, but he sure made it look hard
Did anyone else get real nervous know _elmon was in left there?
*raises hand*
Ah...shades of Luis Castillo.
DPWY, where were you to pop that beach ball?
My brother and his five year old son are sitting right behind the plate tonight. Here's hoping that they get a good game tonight.
range at third base, woo!
I don't care if he hits, that qualifies as Really Cool.
Nice DP there, Crede got it started right.
heh. i wish the camera would have stayed there so we could have seen punto's shoulders slump.
No way Harris or Buscher makes that play.
A double play. How Blackburnian.
All that interview needed was a beach ball or two.
nice cambria plug...
UNO!
Blowers says twice that Blackburn "throws a lot of ground balls." Niehaus calls Gomez "Morales" and a minute of silence passes before he corrects the mistake.
1-0 wild after the first. anyone care? no? okay, nevermind.
Hey, I care!
i care a little. i've resigned myself to early tee-times for them.
pretty much me too. i'd be nice to see them somehow sneak in and lose in the first round though...
That's as much offense as the Twins have generated so far this season.
Punto doesn't look right without a moustache now...
at least he didn't slide into first.
Come on boys, lets get a couple back!
I'm waiting for the Twins' offense, like America in early WW2, to wake up like a sleeping giant. Or at least score more than one.
just like the british, i'm not holding my breath...
They're going to ship stuff to Britain and get sunk by German submarines before deciding to get serious?
Uh, I'm thinking more like a day that lived in infamy, but whatever it takes to get them serious, please!
Oh man...we're going to be waiting until, like, 2012...
This offense is looking very much like Pearl Harbor. After the attack.
technically, that was more like last year after we got rid of monroe, lamb, everett, etc.
I think twayn's referring to just minutes after the attack.
that was just the perception at the time. beside the obvious tragedy of loss of life, all the attack served was to destroy our old and aging battleships. within a year and a half, we were younger and twice as badass. i'm thinking i'm pushing this analogy to the limits. i'll stop now.
To be fair, the pitching kind of is too.
Blackburn needs the agnst beard back.
lamb's was better.
Ok, not that I'm bitter or anything, but I can't listen at work anymore because of stoopid mlb.com and stoopid gameday and stoopid requiring an update of Adobe Flash which our IT shop hasn't done this century. I'm going home. Damnit.
bull poop.
Looking a bit sloppy out there tonight. Must be
Opening Day JittersDrunk.What, like Chuck's variable rate strike zone?
time to start a Free DH Delmon campaign.
2-0 wild. yes! we're getting closer to missing the playoffs!
I don't care that he's probably leaving after this season, and that he's always injured, I love watching Marion Gaborik play hockey.
Gaby sets up Belanger. Wild up 2-0.
Wild offense > Twins offense, at least for the time being.
CREDE!
A Delmon dinger here would be nice. Hell, a Delmon single would be nice.
That was not one of your stated options.
Dick: "Twins come up short in their 4th inning rally."
I need a ruling. Don't you have to score runs for it to be a rally?
FREE DELMON?
Give him a cricket bat. He'll catch that fastball.
nevermind.
I'd give any other team that wants him a Free Delmon.
3-0. the wild are kicking the twins ass...
the wild and the mariners both.
Also in the NHL, Chicago is beating Nashville 3-1. This is good for us.
Wow, that was some awesome double play there.
All double plays, that benefit the Twins, are awesome.
hell, that was worth 1MM of punto's salary for me right there so far...
Well, so far this year I'm liking the defense
I think that'll be the best thing about the club all year long.
I could do without the putting the runners on base and the death-defying double plays. Oof.
WTF did MLB.com do to Gameday? Nothing like taking a perfectly good software application and ruining it with feature bloat. Does nobody understand that performance trumps eye candy?
Does nobody understand that performance trumps eye candy?
It's probably designed by some of us single folk. Eye candy is all we get most of the time.
Obviously, ubelmann has never been married.
go Gameday Mini. the only way to fly
Seconded. At Bat 2009 give you gameday audio as well.
Hello? What is "At Bat 2009" and where do I find it?
There's my favorite center fielder.
Bases are like martinis. One isn't enough, two is just right, three is just weird.
Triples are more exciting than double plays, methinks.
I miss Joe Mauer.
I'm going to be saying that every day.
I'll at least say it every day that Morales strikes out every time he steps to the plate.
there goes his 1.000 average
of course, now comes the tricky part of getting him across the plate...
Steal home!
that might be their best chance.
Scoring on a wild pitch would be the Twins way. But I'll take the RBI single.
Need to score on a BB, for Sheenie
Save Big Money!
Span's pretty much the man these days. He just might be our best non-Mauer.
Before last year I never thought we'd be saying anything of that sort.
I loves me some "in play - run(s)"
much better than out(s)
Good thing nobody picked Lexi in the Pick the Stick game...
I <3 Cuddyer
w00t!
Cuddy, I'm sorry I thought bad about you after your opening AB yesterday. You're an RBI machine.
Cuddy delivers! Good thing, too. I was about to go all StatFreak on his ass.
that was a ballsy take for 3-2...
Also, thanks to Chuck for blowing the strike three call and giving Cuddyer another shot.
He is all over the place.
It's Cuddyer's dimples. Just try telling those dimples to go back to the dugout. You can't!
w00t! I'm hoping some Canadian on Canadian violence goes our way to give us the lead now.
And Bedard makes Morneau his Le Bitch.
yet another slow start for morneau this year?
Depends on how long you define "start". Last year he had only a .772 OPS after 8 games, but raised it to .880 (and led the team) after 24 games.
I'm getting to the point where I don't care if he hits, I just want Morneau to take some quality at-bats. He's looking horrible at the plate so far. I wonder if his back is still bothering him.
His swing on that 3-2 pitch earlier looked solid. But all his other at bats have looked lackluster
I can't even recall what Morneau looking good at the plate would look like. He's so aggressive that even when he is going well, it feels like he doesn't see many pitches up there.
that was a really creepy interview. who wants to bet he tried to get her number?
yeah, my thoughts
HOLY CRAP RAT BOY! That was awesome. Web Gem.
second bet of the night: think his spine popped somehow on that?
Ah, the good cheese.
evening folks.
Evenin' meat.
hey there meat.
So, how long do you suppose it'll take the Twins before someone hits a home run? I'm thinking that we're not lucky enough to get one on our first homestand, and then we'll be in the cold Chicago weather...we're probably looking at the second week.
My money is on when Silva pitches.
Kubel, now?
I apologize for the Bremer. I got a little excited there.
I really miss Joe Mauer.
If that's how Morales is going to be at the plate, we might as well have gone with Butera.
Morales has been very Buterish at the plate tonight.
Did anyone [besides Morales] seriously think he was ready for the Bigs? I don't think he look that bad, he at least gets a first week pass in my book.
Morales's mom?
could it be worse than butera that hasn't played above AA? who else? ramos?
Well, we're talking about backup catchers here. How ready is "ready"?
That's essentially my point. He's clearly overmatched, but that was what was expected. I don't anyone is wishing Chris Heintz was in there right now.
Although, it would be fun to see the Bush man give it a try.
That was an easy inning for Corcoran.
sadly, dick's got a point about span...
That just sounds dirty...
What did he say?
that despite a poor spring, he's been our most consistent hitter (and that did sound a little dirty; sorry...)
Morales
and there's Kelly Leak again, not letting the left-fielder catch the ball
Go Bears!
who is this wanker? where's marney?
I'd even take Telly Hughes over this guy.
Has anyone else had problems with their subscriptions to mlb.com?
honey, don't even get me started! skipping worse than a bad cd, and the too many logins crap? eff them.
I can't even get them to take 14.95 from me, this should be a sign. I really didn't want to hear DazzL and Gordo anyway. Now get off my lawn.
What service are we talking about?
just the radio package, I've logged in and tried to pay them with every card I have, and yet, I am declined.
i'm pissed about the video. i had to call the support line three times yesterday (and wait and wait and wait) for them to get it to work.
For what its worth, I've had no problems with MLB.tv and it is insanely improved over last year. Looks like they took a step back on Audio though.
WHAT!? Never mind. On second look he was out.
Why isn't Nathan in here?
He's busy playing video games with Joe Mauer.
Luis Ayala's pic on Yahoo's GameDay thingie makes him look like Matt Garza
)put a Twins hat on Garza
just checking into the game, Bedard with 8 k's this evening. yikes
I'd say the strike zone has taken a mulligan on game 2.
Again, I ask. Why isn't Nathan in here? @*(^(@*#^@*#()@#!#
anyone got a rally cap to toss in?
Won't work anymore I don't think but its the right spirit
Success! I can hear the
gamecommercials. Let's go Harley Davidson of Mankato!one11!Heh, j. Morales scheduled to bat next.
The Dude steps in.
nice recovery.
Holy SHit! The dude to bat.
It's important to note, I think, that Gomez took a walk there. That's like, triple points isn't it?
Morrow wanted no part of The Dude
Oh, Boy.
The crowd doesn't like the call, either does gordo.
walk, walk, walk
sweet!
Whomever it was here that has Morrow on his fantasy team, I think this is karma biting you in the ass
I'll gladly take the hit when he's trying to close one out against the Twins.
an infield hit for a run! bwhaha I love it!
D-SPAN keeps the game alive. C'mon Laddie!
what!?!? my mlb.tv was effing up (see above) so i thought the game was over. nice!!
OH MY GOD!!!!!!
Twins Win! Twins Win!
LADDIE!!!!!!!
Lexi!!!!
I love baseball.
I concur.
TWINS WIN!!!! TWINS WIN!!!! TWINS WIN!!!!
TWINS WIN!!!! TWINS WIN!!!! TWINS WIN!!!!
TWINS WIN!!!! TWINS WIN!!!! TWINS WIN!!!!
TWINS WIN!!!! TWINS WIN!!!! TWINS WIN!!!!
Well, that was fun.
Holy cow!
All right, got here just in time.
This is why baseball is the best sport in the world. Carlos Gomez up to his last strike, and there's no clock to end the game.
the rally cap....no one can stop it!
Thank goodness I was able to find it in time.
One for the highlight reel already.
LEXI!!!!! First Pitch really?!
Didn't he win a dramatic game last year in extras by swinging at the first pitch?
Of course, now I have to stay up to watch Baseball Tonight. Oh, well, time enough for sleeping in the grave.
Just got home. Did I miss anything?
Eh, same old same old.
dick gets annoying at times (well, at all times mostly), but he gets excited with the best of them. good call.
my, my, my. That was fun. It's good to have a great closer.
That's a money-making rally for Sheenie
Just got home from the game. Holy moly was that ever exciting. About half the stadium left before the bottom of the ninth, and I hope they learned their lesson.