2009 Game 17: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians

Game time: 6:05 CDT
TV: FS-N / Radio: TRN

Probables:
Nick Blackburn (113 tRA+, 5.12 tRA*) vs Fausto Carmona (1 tRA+, 5.19 tRA*)

Carmona won his first game of the year last week against the Yankees. Though, who couldn't. It was an otherwise mediocre start with 4 ER, 4 BB, 1 SO, and 2 HR. Carmona had a breakout year in 2007 and decent 2008 until he injured his hip on May 24. Wasn't quite the same afterwards.

ERA BB SO HR FIP
Pre-May 24 2.25 35 22 1 4.62
Post-May 24 7.61 32 35 6 5.08

His FIP so far this year is 7.55.

Year SO/9 BB/9 FB% SL% CH%
2006 6.99 3.74 77.2% 15.3% 3.6%
2007 5.73 2.55 75.0% 12.0%
2008 4.33 5.22 80.9% 8.8% 2.6%
2009 4.50 5.63 86.5% 3.9% 9.5%

So, he drops his slider (a groundball-type pitch) for his changeup (a flyball-type pitch). Carmona lives on his sinker and control to get outs and when he overly relies on one and loses the other, this unsurprisingly hasn't gone so well. I wonder if his lack of control is related to his injury last year. His career BB/9 in the minors is 1.7 with only a 2.0 in AAA and AA, so the outliers here would be recent performance. However, his control suffered before the injury as well, so I could just be making up stuff.

Conclusion? Be patient and let Carmona do his part in funding the fight against breast cancer.

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