Comments on: Swarzak called up http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/ Your Daily Source for Half-Baked Crap Thu, 11 Mar 2010 04:36:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: tobynotjason http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195456 tobynotjason Thu, 21 May 2009 19:10:17 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195456 <blockquote>If Swarzak can induce ground balls like crazy, he could be decent, otherwise he's AAAA at best.</blockquote> He's got a 44% GB rate through 2008-9 at AAA and had a 35% GB rate at New Britain last year, so the turf-worms probably aren't too worried. That groundball rate certainly <em>could</em> improve, but that's no more (un)likely than a sudden uptick in his K and BB rates. Bottom line is he needs to become a significantly better pitcher than he is right now if he's going to succeed in MLB. I hope it happens, but I'm not holding my breath, especially as regards the 2009 season. Ayala is worthless and has been since the year <em>before </em>his surgery when an incredibly lucky LOB rate saved his traditional numbers from the fate they "deserved" once his sinker stopped inducing groundballs (save in the mind of his agent and the Twin Cities sports media). Yes, Breslow's been awful this year through 14+ innings, but still seems like a superior low leverage option than Ayala going forward. Of course, Ayala was a "big" free agent signing, and B.S. would presumably really, <em>really</em> like one of those to work out some time. What strikes me as odd is that there remains a distinict odor of inevitability around the matter of Ayala's premature release, whereas the same did not seem to hover around Breslow. (Obviously this is wholly subjective and distinctly squishy, but still.) It's almost like: who are they fooling? Does anyone take seriously the prospect of Ayala lasting out the season? Maybe Gardy's way of "thinking" just didn't jibe with Breslow's high-falutin' Yale thinkin'.

If Swarzak can induce ground balls like crazy, he could be decent, otherwise he's AAAA at best.

He's got a 44% GB rate through 2008-9 at AAA and had a 35% GB rate at New Britain last year, so the turf-worms probably aren't too worried. That groundball rate certainly could improve, but that's no more (un)likely than a sudden uptick in his K and BB rates. Bottom line is he needs to become a significantly better pitcher than he is right now if he's going to succeed in MLB. I hope it happens, but I'm not holding my breath, especially as regards the 2009 season.

Ayala is worthless and has been since the year before his surgery when an incredibly lucky LOB rate saved his traditional numbers from the fate they "deserved" once his sinker stopped inducing groundballs (save in the mind of his agent and the Twin Cities sports media). Yes, Breslow's been awful this year through 14+ innings, but still seems like a superior low leverage option than Ayala going forward. Of course, Ayala was a "big" free agent signing, and B.S. would presumably really, really like one of those to work out some time. What strikes me as odd is that there remains a distinict odor of inevitability around the matter of Ayala's premature release, whereas the same did not seem to hover around Breslow. (Obviously this is wholly subjective and distinctly squishy, but still.) It's almost like: who are they fooling? Does anyone take seriously the prospect of Ayala lasting out the season? Maybe Gardy's way of "thinking" just didn't jibe with Breslow's high-falutin' Yale thinkin'.

]]> By: Dread Pirate Will Young http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195283 Dread Pirate Will Young Thu, 21 May 2009 14:23:34 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195283 I didn't realize that Professor Farnsworthless got his Ph.D. in molecular biology. I didn't realize that Professor Farnsworthless got his Ph.D. in molecular biology.

]]> By: ubelmann http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195189 ubelmann Thu, 21 May 2009 00:45:02 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195189 I'm the local curmudgeon, so I'll have none of that drama nonsense. I've got a reputation to protect, donchaknow. I'm the local curmudgeon, so I'll have none of that drama nonsense. I've got a reputation to protect, donchaknow.

]]> By: Whiffers http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195179 Whiffers Thu, 21 May 2009 00:35:44 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195179 Definitely understand that, I included it for dramatic effect. Definitely understand that, I included it for dramatic effect.

]]> By: ubelmann http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195159 ubelmann Thu, 21 May 2009 00:09:09 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195159 Breslow only had 86 AB against right-handed batters last year--his platoon split from last year is not indicative of what his platoon split will be going forward--there are tiny sample size issues at play there. Breslow only had 86 AB against right-handed batters last year--his platoon split from last year is not indicative of what his platoon split will be going forward--there are tiny sample size issues at play there.

]]> By: SBG http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195153 SBG Wed, 20 May 2009 23:56:00 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195153 -1 pair of glasses. -1 pair of glasses.

]]> By: brianS http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195151 brianS Wed, 20 May 2009 23:49:44 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195151 so, we knew <strong>this only ends one way</strong>, right? so, we knew this only ends one way, right?

]]> By: socaltwinsfan http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195149 socaltwinsfan Wed, 20 May 2009 23:34:37 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195149 Henn got to 94 on the radar gun at the Cell last night. Henn got to 94 on the radar gun at the Cell last night.

]]> By: greenmachine http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195148 greenmachine Wed, 20 May 2009 22:31:58 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195148 Glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks so. Glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks so.

]]> By: Whiffers http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195147 Whiffers Wed, 20 May 2009 22:20:12 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195147 I didn't even think about that roster move. But, but but...we could bring up a 3rd catcher!!! I didn't even think about that roster move. But, but but...we could bring up a 3rd catcher!!!

]]> By: SBG http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195145 SBG Wed, 20 May 2009 21:52:08 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195145 I still don't know why the Twins didn't bring up a 13th pitcher to audition while Delmon was gone. I know, I know, this is not good standard practice, but it would have only been for seven days. It's clear that a decision had to be made about the bullpen. Why not give a guy a couple of outings in the show to see before cutting guys loose. I still don't know why the Twins didn't bring up a 13th pitcher to audition while Delmon was gone. I know, I know, this is not good standard practice, but it would have only been for seven days. It's clear that a decision had to be made about the bullpen. Why not give a guy a couple of outings in the show to see before cutting guys loose.

]]> By: Rhubarb_Runner http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195144 Rhubarb_Runner Wed, 20 May 2009 21:19:30 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195144 or irresponsible, as the case may be or irresponsible, as the case may be

]]> By: Rhubarb_Runner http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195143 Rhubarb_Runner Wed, 20 May 2009 21:18:30 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195143 Separated at birth: <img src="http://stickandballguy.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/breslow.jpg" alt="dude on the left" width="300"/><img src="http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/076Rgzl7bD7cx/340x.jpg" alt="dude on the right" width="300"/> Separated at birth:
dude on the leftdude on the right

]]> By: twayn http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195141 twayn Wed, 20 May 2009 20:51:47 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195141 I'm going to miss seeing Mauer and Breslow standing side by side at mound meetings. That's the long and the short of it. I'm going to miss seeing Mauer and Breslow standing side by side at mound meetings. That's the long and the short of it.

]]> By: Whiffers http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195140 Whiffers Wed, 20 May 2009 20:48:40 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195140 Despite my previous comment, I don't think losing Breslow is going to be a big deal. But I don't see the logic of the move at all...but that's been par for the course so far with GM Billy. Despite my previous comment, I don't think losing Breslow is going to be a big deal. But I don't see the logic of the move at all...but that's been par for the course so far with GM Billy.

]]> By: Jeff A http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195135 Jeff A Wed, 20 May 2009 20:26:30 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195135 If the Twins don't start winning pretty soon, TC may get a look. If the Twins don't start winning pretty soon, TC may get a look.

]]> By: Jeff A http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195134 Jeff A Wed, 20 May 2009 20:24:19 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195134 Breslow's been awful this year, but he hasn't been too bad the rest of his career. Not great, but not too bad. Plus, he's only 28. On the other hand, he's now going to his sixth organization, so if Bill Smith does turn out to be wrong, he certainly won't be the only one. Breslow's been awful this year, but he hasn't been too bad the rest of his career. Not great, but not too bad. Plus, he's only 28. On the other hand, he's now going to his sixth organization, so if Bill Smith does turn out to be wrong, he certainly won't be the only one.

]]> By: Whiffers http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195133 Whiffers Wed, 20 May 2009 20:23:06 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195133 I really don't get this move. Is Henn really promising enough that it was worth bringing him up first, then Swarzak second, even though it put them in a spot to lose Breslow? I guess it is safe to assume the front office realized they'd need a starter to take Perkins' spot, but with Billy Smith...I kid...I think. I didn't expect Breslow to match last year's performance or anything, but I don't see Henn as any sort of upgrade. Last three year OPS splits (from ESPN, but I realize neither pitcher has three years of data): Breslow vs. LH: .527 Breslow vs. RH: 579 Henn vs. LH: .761 Henn vs. RH: .956 Breslow's "bad" year so far has LH at .761 and RH at .785. This looks like shaking up the bullpen for the sake of shaking up the bullpen to me. Still too many untrustworthy arms out there to keep Gardy from sending out the same mediocre relievers every damn game. Gardy clearly doesn't want to use Ayala or Dickey unless he absolutely has to, for good reason. At least we know Henn's developed a 95 mph fastball...on the Rochester gun. I think TC the Bear could touch the mid-80s on that gun. I really don't get this move. Is Henn really promising enough that it was worth bringing him up first, then Swarzak second, even though it put them in a spot to lose Breslow? I guess it is safe to assume the front office realized they'd need a starter to take Perkins' spot, but with Billy Smith...I kid...I think.

I didn't expect Breslow to match last year's performance or anything, but I don't see Henn as any sort of upgrade.

Last three year OPS splits (from ESPN, but I realize neither pitcher has three years of data):
Breslow vs. LH: .527
Breslow vs. RH: 579
Henn vs. LH: .761
Henn vs. RH: .956

Breslow's "bad" year so far has LH at .761 and RH at .785.

This looks like shaking up the bullpen for the sake of shaking up the bullpen to me. Still too many untrustworthy arms out there to keep Gardy from sending out the same mediocre relievers every damn game. Gardy clearly doesn't want to use Ayala or Dickey unless he absolutely has to, for good reason.

At least we know Henn's developed a 95 mph fastball...on the Rochester gun. I think TC the Bear could touch the mid-80s on that gun.

]]> By: ubelmann http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195132 ubelmann Wed, 20 May 2009 20:18:53 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195132 Whatever Smith's motivations behind the move, losing Breslow is nothing to worry about. He did have pretty good years in '06 and '08, but he wasn't as good as his ERA indicated last year. And as a pitcher who mainly throws a fastball/slider combo, he shouldn't be expected to fare well against right-handed pitchers. Not to mention that his fastball, even as a reliever, clocks in under 90mph and he was having trouble allowing too many walks. BS can't walk down and demand that Gardy use Breslow against both-handed batters anyway, so taking Ayala out and putting Breslow in probably would have meant that Gardy would overuse the right-handers that were left in the bullpen. Whatever Smith's motivations behind the move, losing Breslow is nothing to worry about. He did have pretty good years in '06 and '08, but he wasn't as good as his ERA indicated last year. And as a pitcher who mainly throws a fastball/slider combo, he shouldn't be expected to fare well against right-handed pitchers. Not to mention that his fastball, even as a reliever, clocks in under 90mph and he was having trouble allowing too many walks.

BS can't walk down and demand that Gardy use Breslow against both-handed batters anyway, so taking Ayala out and putting Breslow in probably would have meant that Gardy would overuse the right-handers that were left in the bullpen.

]]> By: sean http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195129 sean Wed, 20 May 2009 20:14:49 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195129 The team that claims him is responsible for the rest. The team that claims him is responsible for the rest.

]]> By: meat http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195128 meat Wed, 20 May 2009 20:11:31 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195128 If a team puts a player on waivers and another team claims him who is responsible for the remainder of that players salary? If a team puts a player on waivers and another team claims him who is responsible for the remainder of that players salary?

]]> By: ubelmann http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195127 ubelmann Wed, 20 May 2009 20:11:30 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195127 Astoundingly, Ayala's 4.52 FIP is 3rd-best in the bullpen, behind just Nathan and Mijares. Now, that's still not good, and he might not be as good as his FIP so far indicates, but he's been better than Breslow and Gardy's willing to use him in more situations. Astoundingly, Ayala's 4.52 FIP is 3rd-best in the bullpen, behind just Nathan and Mijares. Now, that's still not good, and he might not be as good as his FIP so far indicates, but he's been better than Breslow and Gardy's willing to use him in more situations.

]]> By: socaltwinsfan http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195126 socaltwinsfan Wed, 20 May 2009 20:08:10 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195126 Breslow was great last year, so I'm surprised they gave up on him so quickly. Ayala has been bad for several years now. Breslow would seem like a much better candidate for improvement than Ayala. Plus, both Breslow and Mijares have been able to get righties and lefties out (well, Breslow did last year) so it wasn't like they can only be used against lefties, so having three lefties shouldn't have been that big of a deal. I don't like letting Breslow go. It may end up not being a big deal, but this smells like the GM trying to prove signing Ayala wasn't such a bad thing instead of admitting the mistake and moving on. Breslow was great last year, so I'm surprised they gave up on him so quickly. Ayala has been bad for several years now. Breslow would seem like a much better candidate for improvement than Ayala. Plus, both Breslow and Mijares have been able to get righties and lefties out (well, Breslow did last year) so it wasn't like they can only be used against lefties, so having three lefties shouldn't have been that big of a deal.

I don't like letting Breslow go. It may end up not being a big deal, but this smells like the GM trying to prove signing Ayala wasn't such a bad thing instead of admitting the mistake and moving on.

]]> By: davidwatts http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/05/20/swarzak-called-up/#comment-195123 davidwatts Wed, 20 May 2009 19:54:22 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/?p=12655#comment-195123 im surprised Ayala wasn't just cut from the team to make room for Swarzak. having 3 lefties in teh pen cant be a bad thing...unless none of them can get outs, which seems to be the entire bullpen these days im surprised Ayala wasn't just cut from the team to make room for Swarzak. having 3 lefties in teh pen cant be a bad thing...unless none of them can get outs, which seems to be the entire bullpen these days

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