Tropicana Field
First Pitch - 12:38 p.m. CST
TV - WFTC29
Radio - TRN
Probable Starters:
Nick Blackburn (4-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP ) vs. Matt Garza (4-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP )
In case you haven't noticed, the Twins in general and Joe Mauer in particular have had a pretty good month of May. Mauer has 11 home runs and 32 RBI on the month, the first time in history a Twins player has accomplished that feat. He's hit .417 with a .500 OBP this month.
As a team, the Twins are hitting .285 in May, best in the AL, and their 273 hits rank second only to Tampa Bay's 275. The Twins have hit 40 home runs in May, second in the AL to the Yankees, who have 44. You would think that all that offense would have given the team a winning record in May, but you would be wrong. In baseball and comedy, timing is everything.
It would have been nice to get some of those hits and homers in a more timely fashion, as the Twins have lost 16 games in May while winning just 13, and of their 16 losses, 10 of them have been by one or two runs. So far the magic number for the Twins appears to be 5. When scoring five or more runs, the Twins win more than half the time. When scoring less than 5 runs, they lose at an alarming rate. But when they score 8 or more runs in a game, they have yet to lose.
In the fun exotic stat category, I notice that Joe Mauer has an OWn% of .907. Offensive Winning percentage tells you how often a team would win with 9 of a particular player batting in the lineup, assuming league average pitching and defense by the other team. So if you stock your batting order with nine Joe Mauers, you will win about nine out of every ten games. With Justin Morneau, you win at a .790 clip. With Michael Cuddyer, .585. With Jason Kubel, .645. And if you had 9 Delmon Youngs batting, you would win at just a .158 rate.
Let's take a look at today's momentum. In his last start, Blackburn struck out a career high seven batters against a tough Boston lineup while giving up just one earned run. In Garza's last start, he gave up three home runs but just two other hits and also struck out seven. What does it all mean? Who knows, but if I had to give the ball to somebody on this team to stop a three game losing streak, Blackburn would be one of my top two choices right now.
Game on.
By the way, I should note that I'm filling in today for the honeymooning Yickit. If he shows up in the game log at all today, we'll know the honeymoon is over.
That sounded like a challenge. Yay Twins!
Ruh roh. Sneakin' out on the wif already?!!!!one11!!!!
I'll be attending Runner daughter's graduation ceremony during the game, so I can't participate; I think this means that I have to at least leave a prediction. Okay, here goes:
There, that should do it.
that's Jeane Dixon-quality predictation.
some alternate programming today. WGN has the Pale Hose and Royals game. Zach Grienke is pitching
No Mauer in the lineup
1. Deanrd Span, LF
2. Alexi Casilla,2B
3. Justin Morneau, 1B
4. Jason Kubel, DH
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Bredan Harris, SS
7. Brian Buscher, 3B
8. Mike Redmond, C
9. Carlos Gomez, CF
this might get ugly
And why isn't Redmond batting in the two hole?
we need a veteran presence in the bottom of the lineup
Right. That's usually Punto, but he's pulling his groin in the dugout.
Garza might reach his pitch count in the first inning if this keeps up.
Who is the SS? Brainiac?
*crickets*
I didn't see yesterday's game because of FOX's dumb blackout rules, but it looks like Liriano was terrible again. My question is: When Perkins is ready to come back, do we demote F-Bomb rather than S-Bomb?
maybe the F-Bomb will have the flu and will have to be put on the 15 day DL
Billy Smith FTW!
Obviously, Garza had some makeup issues.
Durty!!
HAIR DOG!
Dirty Harry!
That makes the trade worth it.
Garza' curveball is nasty
Go ahead, make my day.
oh oh...Cuddy is out now
The good news is...we have a below replacement level backup in Delmon Young.
At least he's making a lot more money than a similar htting minor leaguer would be.
Gomez with a ....... slug bunt?
My wife walked by just as he did that and asked what on earth that was.
I meant to note in this comment that I had to answer with a "I have no idea".
My kingdom for an edit function.
Picked!
is there a website that keeps tracks of pickoffs? I cant seem to find it...because it seems to me that Twins pitchers have nabbed quite a few people this year
Twins batters have not been able to lay off the high fastball this series
Pena
I stepped in yet again just in time to see the Twins allow the tie. I'm bad mojo, people.
Please tell me that there isn't really an effort to pardon Jim Morrison, is there? Ughh.
Considering what they were talking about, after Joyce hit that homer, Dick should've completed the thought with "Advantage: Rays."
Blackie needs to keep the ball down. Like in the park.
I love how casual fans gush about keeping the ball down because it's literally the only answer those two have when things aren't going well for the pitcher. They might as well do MXC-style replays where Dick'n'Bert go, "Oh, you see, there's his problem: the ball was hit for a home run."
Getting a little closer to the ol' xFIP.
Dazz and Gordo learning the definition of On-Base Percentage. Hilarious.
I might use the term "pathetic," but I imagine it's funny too.
There was a putrid article on MLB.com today about Juan Pierre. They acknowledge that "new wave number-crunchers" don't like him because he has a terrible OBP, and rationalize it away by saying he has a "speed-based style that often lacks walks and generally leaves him with a low on-base percentage." As if no speedy guy, ever, was able to get on base a lot.
Like my nemesis, Rickey!
Right. I almost brought him up. It's unfair to compare today's speedy guys to the best speedy guy of all time, but if Pierre got on base as often as Rickey did, his speed would actually mean something. Rickey had .401 for his career, and he played well into his nineties.
Rickey's sponsor on his page refers to him as the "biggest basepath disruptor since Ty Cobb." Uh, that's including Ty Cobb, homeboy. Unless he's counting the fact that Cobb spiked his opponents because he was a total dickwad.
Good lord. STFU about Span's OBP! .389 is "good", fellahs.
yikes, bases juiced for longoria.
disaster averted.
Bert: "It never really clicked for Garza in Minnesota"
He had 24 starts here! Not much time given for clickage. Not only that, he had an ERA of 3.69 the year before he was traded
Once again, since someone didn't like him, the announcers are asked to rewrite history to paint over the hideous trade. God, the company line is pathetic.
I'd probably be less sad about this trade if Punto wasn't hitting a buck ninety as our starting shortstop, and our rotation didn't have an ERA around 5.
Right. It all could've come together, but we actually miss the parts we lost while gaining next-to-nothing from the ones we gained.
Yea, but ERA sucks!!!111one11!!!!!
The day Bert references xFIP as a better way to judge pitching performance is the day the world collapses into a blaze of fire.
He did have the third-best xFIP among Twins starters, behind Baker and some other guy.
If Delmon gets an extra-base hit here, I will give everyone of my friends here a million bucks
If he does it, are you going to claim that you have no friends here? 'Cause that's delightfully devilish, Beau.
Your money would seem safe, wouldn't it.
So Delmon is able to lay off a pitch just outside that could've gone either way, but if it drops five feet before it gets to the plate, he swings? He's just guessing, isn't he?
I thought that was obvious. Whenever Delmon has ever taken a pitch, it has always looked like he made up his mind before the pitch was thrown.
There's outguessing the pitcher....and then there's Delmon.
The look of perma-confusion on his face doesn't inspire confidence.
I wonder, then, how he decides what he's going to do?
He just occasionally remembers he doesn't have to swing the bat. It's rare.
...and then there's
Delmonjust guessing. Fixed for ya.Good call
Afternoon gents. Nice day for a ballgame.
Gutzon!
isn't every day?
Any day with ball, beer and music is a good day in my book. And now that you mention it is most of 'em, so...yeah!
Holy crapshoes, Blackie. You'll feel that for a while.
Bert hesitated to think about it, and still twice referred to them as the "Jays." Silly old codger.
Is a sac fly too much to ask?
placement!
...just a matter of inches
I'll take it!
His 3rd RBI of the season!
Nice to see Gomz succeed in that situation.
I smell a bunt.
That would have been a spot for Mauer to pinch-hit. We have Tolbert on the bench for crying out loud
I'd know what is going on in this game if the money I paid to MLB included a functioning "Summary" component to Gameday Audio. It's as though Dazz were running the thing...on a few too many Glueck's.
Pwned, Crawford.
Kudos to Gardy for not bringing in Mijares to face Crawford
Well, that sorta cancels out Crawford's horrible at-bat. Although Morneau was making contact, at least.
Menu check: falafel in homemade pita tonight, with tzatziki. This will be my first attempt at making pita, using one of these recipes.
I just had some chicken tacos, courtesy of Madam 'Milk. Not sure about tonight yet. West Coast and all.
The pita sounds tasty.
Galactic Pixza later, with several varities of beer on hand.
Doc, you make your own Tzatzkik? If so, I'd like the recipe.
easy stuff, meat.
2 cups good yogurt, drained for a while to thicken.
2 cloves garlic, crushed and smushed to a paste with some coarse salt
1 medium cucumber, seeds removed, grated. I salt the grated cuke and drain for a while in a strainer
A handful of mint, chopped fine
1-2 tsp or to taste olive oil
1-2 tsp or to taste lemon juice.
combine all ingredients and chill to let the flavors meld. You may want to add a little extra salt as well.
some like their tzatziki thick, which just means drain the yogurt for several hours. I'm usually too lazy to do that.
Sounds good, thanks.
How many times can Morneau get out on foul tips in one series??
Wait - a pitcher was brought in specifically to face Delmon Young? Is that really necessary?
lol
I suppose that it could have been a shortstop.
Hehe. Nice.
Joe Maddon is trying to build up Izzy's confidence. He's a brilliant manager!!!1!one
Howdy all. Just finished lunch and though I'd check in. Chicken patty sandwich with honey BBQ sauce and fat free American cheese, "Sock It To Me" jello salad and cola. (Started with Pepsi, but it had gone flat so went to CF Coke).
I am opting for a liquid lunch of Brooklyn Lager this afternoon. I have a big day at work tomorrow and figure some afternoon drinking should help me get to bed early.
That sounds like what I had every single day of college. Now I'm getting nostalgic.
You could afford Brooklyn Lager in college??
Well, I sold a lot of drugs, so.
I knew I knew you from somewhere.
Ohhh, my!
That was all sorts of kookypants. I can't believe Mijares found that thing.
Nice ballpark.
Does Mijares have good movement on his fastball? 90-91 mph doesn't sound very intimidating. (although that last one registered 93)
No more than the average guy, but he's really hitting his spots today for the most part.
His motion seems to really help him. It looks like he kind of jumps at the batter and he's got a real good slider which he should use a little more often.
Thank Jeebus Delmon Young has played here many times before. He knew what he was doing there.
If you think so...
I'm just trying to be nice.
It's funny though, cause as I told my dad, he never played left when he was with the Rays.
Not in left field. He was strictly a RF (or a rare CF for a game or two) for the Rays, and UZR says he was actually slightly above average for them.
Oh, for funny. I guess I can't even trust Bert to know who played where in the past. Great.
Nicely done, Delm_n!
E-6
show off.
It's all about me. ;)
It is all about you.
Thanks for the plug!
Any time.
I was thinking of posting a pic of a butt plug, decided against.
Just mentioning it gone the job done. I LOLed.
cheeky f^cks. ;)
Bert: "Troy Percival may be retiring, so the Rays hope that this young man Jason Isringhausen can fill that role."
He's young compared to Bert.
a Geico would be nice.
When did Tony LaRussa become the manager in Tampa?
I never understand why anyone would intentionally give Redmond a fastball on the outside half of the plate, especially on the first pitch. All he does is slap fastballs to right field and yet they continue to give it to him. Even worse is when they do it with a runner at first base, so the right side of the infield has a big hole. Just stupid. Thank you very much.
Why are you looking these gift horses in the mouth?
What a nag.
I am what I am.
ZOMG! Is that Phyllis Diller??
Sid and Nancy.
I was horsing around, meat.
Giddy up.
PINCH-HIT MAUER!!!!!!!!
Seriously. Aggggggg.
But what if Redmond had gotten hurt in the bottom of the inning!!!111one!111!!!!!!
Actually, I think it's smart not to PH Mauer there. Not having a backup catcher at all is fairly dicey and the bench is pretty thin the way it is already. Having a non-catcher play at catcher is asking for someone to get injured, which could easily have a much larger impact than maybe winning today's game.
You're probably right. What if the Twins are down by one run instead of up by one?
If they are down by one, then it gets a lot tougher. I think it kind of depends on who your emergency catcher is. It would make it a lot easier if the emergency catcher had some real experience as a catcher. I'm not really sure--who would have caught after that point in the game if Mauer and Redmond were both out?
ubes, I'm a little disturbed by your line of argument. Are you saying that Gardy is justified in his fascination with having a third catcher on the roster?
that was only three-quarters snarky; but you DID just argue that Mauer should --almost-- never be used as a PH if there isn't a third catcher. I'm good with saying don't use up your backup catcher as a PH in, say, the 6th or 7th inning. But in the top of the ninth?
a one-run lead is thin. Getting a second run in that situation would be ginormous, virtually guaranteeing a win in regulation. Seems like the odds of the game going substantial extras and/or the starting catcher getting hurt before the end are pretty low with a one-run lead in the top of the ninth. The expected cost-benefit looks pretty positive according to my interocular pressure test.
that said, there is value in giving Mauer days off here and there.
I'm mainly saying that you shouldn't put Mauer in the game and then take him out right away. So when he's the DH, it's okay because he's still available to catch. The risk of having a completely untrained player behind the dish is pretty minimal at the time of the decision--both catchers would need to get ejected or injured for you to go to the emergency catcher. At the time you put Mauer in and take him out of the game, though, you only need one catcher to get ejected or injured and then you're looking at a really bad situation.
And I think I haven't mentioned that while Mauer is really very good, the marginal improvement of Mauer over any major league hitter in one PA, even in a high-leverage situation, is pretty small. In Inside The Book, they also found that there is a penalty for pinch hitting--it really is harder to pinch hit than it is to hit from the beginning of the game--so that cuts into the marginal improvement that Mauer represents as well. (And I'm not sure if they had one available, but if Tampa brings in a lefty to face Mauer, they significantly cut into his value as a hitter. Mauer hitting against a lefty as a pinch-hitter might even be a slightly below average hitter.)
To the specifics of the game today, if Mauer had hit for, say, Casilla in the 9th, then Tolbert would have had to go out to play second base and the Twins would have used up every single position player on the 25-man roster. So Kubel (with his questionable knee) or Crede (with his questionable knee) would have needed to play in the field had any player gotten injured and if that player was Redmond, we'd probably be looking at Brian Buscher, catcher. That all sounds pretty bad.
Maybe in general, when you don't have that many injured players, you can think about PH'ing Mauer in that situation, but I guess the main point that I am trying to get across is that this is a lot different than deciding whether or not to put Mauer at DH at the beginning of the game because you are worried about losing the DH. In that case, the reward is something like 4-5 Mauer PA, and the risk is maybe losing the DH. Here the reward is one high-leverage Mauer PA and the risk is maybe needing to use an essentially untrained player at catcher (and in this specific case, maybe needing to put an injured player on the field.) Lower reward, higher risk.
And even stepping back to look at the even bigger picture, if it's August or September, and things are really tight in the standings, maybe you really go for it tonight, take a risk and PH Mauer (though if it was that late in the season, Mauer may even have been starting to begin with), putting yourself in a pickle if any additional position players get injured. But in May, I think it's okay to be a little conservative about not completely emptying your bench and pacing the team a bit.
Well said
HOLY SHIT!
D'oh, gordo called d-sapn D-Young and I freaked out for a second.
What's a d-sapn? Lay off the drugs I sold you, mister.
heh. Oh, today I'm consuming mass quantities of free heineken. I know, I know, it's still Heineken. Gawd, this sh!t is awful.
Worst. Aftertaste. Ever.
I'm enjoying Alaskan Amber right now, which Brian positively reviewed some time back, when I thought I was the only person in Minnesota who knew about it (not that I'm in Minnesota anymore, but I was then. Work with me here).
Sigh...
Laddie just left a dump on Gardy's resume.
Gardy's references stink.
Well, you didn't think this was going to be easy, did you?
The worst hitter on your entire team should not be in the two hole
I thought Punto was on the DL?
Your comment is particularly funny in light of the Gordo/Dazz discussion earlier in the game about OBP. Apparently OBP is important for the leadoff hitter and the 3rd and 4th hitters, but not the 2nd hitter.
apparently, average and slugging aren't required either
Gordo just referenced the leader board for saves. Somewhere an Ubleman just crapped his pants.
Right here, so did a Spookymilk.
I bet
Matt TolbertJoe Mauer would have made contact there.A win is a win!
atta boy(s)!
w00t! Not Swept!!
Twins win.
A close game.
On the road.
Against an AL East team.
During the day.
...?
Woo-hoo!!! Nathan's first road save. Very nice. Stunning win considering the lineup today vs. Garza. That's why I love this game.
TWINS WIN! TWINS WIN!
Unfinished business: