Souhan says the Twins need bullpen help, and I think most Twins fans agree with that, but do the numbers? His timing of this column is odd given the Twins won a 2-1 game when their starter went just five innings. And the Twins' bullpen is getting better.
Bullpen ERA by month:
March/April: 6.14
May: 3.36
June: 2.54
Bullpen WHIP by month:
March/April: 1.585
May: 1.217
June: 1.19
Bullpen OPS against by month:
March/April: .825
May: .716
June: .670
There is a definite trend in the right direction for the bullpen as a whole and it has a lot to do with jettisoning dead weight like Luis Ayala, Craig Breslow, and Jesse Crain.
Still, Bobby Keppel's career numbers both in the majors and minors make it doubtful that this good start for him will continue much longer. R.A. Dickey has always been better as a reliever, which makes sense if you think about it*, I still wouldn't want to trust a knuckleballer with a one-run lead in the late innings what with passed balls, stolen bases, etc. His best attribute is a rubber arm which should allow the Twins to stay with 11 pitchers.
* I would think it would be easier to prepare for a knuckleballer if you know he's starting and you will face him at least a couple times. After facing 90-mph fastballs, that knuckleball junk can really throw you off, I would think.
Because of Gardy's reluctance to use Joe Nathan to help out in the eighth inning (did he at least consider bringing Nathan in to face Twins killer Miguel Oliva with two outs and the tying run at second base in the eighth inning last night?), it would make sense to go after a veteran set-up guy. Would they take Delmon straight up?
At this point, I might not take Delmon straight up for a bucket of balls--too much baggage, too far to go to reach his ceiling.
Anyway, I think a lot of the difference in splits is the general flakiness of ERA, WHIP, and even OPS against. In April the Twins' bullpen had roughly a 4.68 FIP and in May they had roughly a 4.81 FIP. In June, they did have a 3.88 FIP, but that's over just 63 innings. If you look at their ZiPS-projected ERA's for the rest of the season, we have:
2.18 -- Nathan (best in baseball)
4.26 -- Guerrier (All-Star!!!)
5.59 -- Dickey
5.63 -- Henn
5.87 -- Mijares (ZiPS must not like the walks?)
6.45 -- Keppel
Even presuming that Mijares is way better than that at like a 3.00 ERA or something, that's two relievers we can expect with sub-4 ERA's going forward, which makes what looks like a pretty weak bullpen to me. Dickey will probably do alright in the long role, but he's also probably going to rediscover some control problems and look a lot worse than he did with just 3 BB over 13.2 IP in June. The Twins could use an extra arm, but they aren't exactly brimming with trade bait, so I won't be surprised when they don't trade for a reliever or they trade for a really mediocre one who satisfies no one.
and who are the targets we should start beating the drums for?
I've mentioned Michael Wuertz before. I don't see Billy Beane giving him up cheaply, and if there's one thing the A's don't need, it's another mediocre corner OFer. They DO need some quality RH bats, so I guess there is a universe in which this could happen. Santiago Casilla is another thought from Oakland, although his numbers have been pretty mediocre.
Maybe Delaney/Slama is the way to go.
I have mostly stopped dreaming of acquiring other teams' players. I'm trying to build up some good karma in hopes that karma might help limit the talk of Mauer-to-east-cost-megalopolis.
It's funny that someone in the gamelog said Guerrier wouldn't even make the Twins' All-Star team, but with that pedestrian-for-a-reliever 4.26 FIP, he probably would, since the Twins' All-Star team probably requires at least two bullpen guys.
Ooops, I'm mixing up my acronyms. I meant that 4.26 projection; his FIP is actually worse than that so far, I believe.
Not all that funny. MLB All-Star teams only carry a handful of pitchers. That means a slew of starters, and Nathan. Unless you're 2006 Pat Neshek (Guerrier isn't), middle relief watches this All-Star game on TV. Dazzle and Gordo continue to be on drugs.
I was talking about the Twins' All-Star team.
I'm pretty sure if anyone wanted to trade for Delmon, he would've been traded by now. Or last winter.
Or two winters ago. Unfortunately, that "anyone" was named Bill Smith.
Whenever I think of the Delmon trade, I picture Billy Smith as Ned Beatty in Deliverance. And he's squealing like a pig.
It's surprising he didn't send Mauer and Morneau packing for a handful of magic beans.
I see two primary weaknesses on this team (Delmon being his own special case). One is in the bullpen, although I do see the improvement there. The other is at 2B. All things considered, I'd rather find a 2B who can hit. Of course we have one of those, but he's playing shortstop. Between Tolbot, Casilla, and Punto, we get nothing offensively from the second base position. And when you have Gomez in CF, that's two spots out of nine of pure hitting suck in your lineup. Gomez isn't going anywhere, so if you want to improve the offense and have a more productive lineup, you have to replace the triumvirate of terrible at second base.