Comments on: I agree with Shecky, but is he still wrong?

By: DK

DK — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:03:31 +0000

I was talking about the Twins' All-Star team.

By: twayn

twayn — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:39:11 +0000

I see two primary weaknesses on this team (Delmon being his own special case). One is in the bullpen, although I do see the improvement there. The other is at 2B. All things considered, I'd rather find a 2B who can hit. Of course we have one of those, but he's playing shortstop. Between Tolbot, Casilla, and Punto, we get nothing offensively from the second base position. And when you have Gomez in CF, that's two spots out of nine of pure hitting suck in your lineup. Gomez isn't going anywhere, so if you want to improve the offense and have a more productive lineup, you have to replace the triumvirate of terrible at second base.

By: SBG

SBG — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:32:01 +0000

It's surprising he didn't send Mauer and Morneau packing for a handful of magic beans.

By: twayn

twayn — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:25:42 +0000

Whenever I think of the Delmon trade, I picture Billy Smith as Ned Beatty in Deliverance. And he's squealing like a pig.

By: Dread Pirate Will Young

Dread Pirate Will Young — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:41:48 +0000

Or two winters ago. Unfortunately, that "anyone" was named Bill Smith.

By: Rhubarb_Runner

Rhubarb_Runner — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:46:35 +0000

Not all that funny. MLB All-Star teams only carry a handful of pitchers. That means a slew of starters, and Nathan. Unless you're 2006 Pat Neshek (Guerrier isn't), middle relief watches this All-Star game on TV. Dazzle and Gordo continue to be on drugs.

By: DK

DK — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:19:50 +0000

Ooops, I'm mixing up my acronyms. I meant that 4.26 projection; his FIP is actually worse than that so far, I believe.

By: DK

DK — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:18:02 +0000

It's funny that someone in the gamelog said Guerrier wouldn't even make the Twins' All-Star team, but with that pedestrian-for-a-reliever 4.26 FIP, he probably would, since the Twins' All-Star team probably requires at least two bullpen guys.

By: DK

DK — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:15:22 +0000

I'm pretty sure if anyone wanted to trade for Delmon, he would've been traded by now. Or last winter.

By: ubelmann

ubelmann — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 07:09:00 +0000

I have mostly stopped dreaming of acquiring other teams' players. I'm trying to build up some good karma in hopes that karma might help limit the talk of Mauer-to-east-cost-megalopolis.

By: brianS

brianS — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:59:58 +0000

and who are the targets we should start beating the drums for? I've mentioned Michael Wuertz before. I don't see Billy Beane giving him up cheaply, and if there's one thing the A's don't need, it's another mediocre corner OFer. They DO need some quality RH bats, so I guess there is a universe in which this could happen. Santiago Casilla is another thought from Oakland, although his numbers have been pretty mediocre. Maybe Delaney/Slama is the way to go.

By: ubelmann

ubelmann — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:33:03 +0000

At this point, I might not take Delmon straight up for a bucket of balls--too much baggage, too far to go to reach his ceiling.

Anyway, I think a lot of the difference in splits is the general flakiness of ERA, WHIP, and even OPS against. In April the Twins' bullpen had roughly a 4.68 FIP and in May they had roughly a 4.81 FIP. In June, they did have a 3.88 FIP, but that's over just 63 innings. If you look at their ZiPS-projected ERA's for the rest of the season, we have:

2.18 -- Nathan (best in baseball)
4.26 -- Guerrier (All-Star!!!)
5.59 -- Dickey
5.63 -- Henn
5.87 -- Mijares (ZiPS must not like the walks?)
6.45 -- Keppel

Even presuming that Mijares is way better than that at like a 3.00 ERA or something, that's two relievers we can expect with sub-4 ERA's going forward, which makes what looks like a pretty weak bullpen to me. Dickey will probably do alright in the long role, but he's also probably going to rediscover some control problems and look a lot worse than he did with just 3 BB over 13.2 IP in June. The Twins could use an extra arm, but they aren't exactly brimming with trade bait, so I won't be surprised when they don't trade for a reliever or they trade for a really mediocre one who satisfies no one.