2009 Game 96: Twins at Halos

7:05 Pacific start time. More civilized baseball!!!

Probables:
Scott Baker (8-7, 5.10 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 4.21 tRA, 90:23 K:BB, 109.3 innings)
Jered Weaver (10-3, 3.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 4.51 xFIP. 3.86 tRA, 107:39 K:BB, 124 innings)

After a turrible start, Baker is slowly rounding back into, umm, staff ace territory again. In the only stat that matters, he is 4-1 in his last 5 starts.

If Pitch F/X data is to be believed, Baker has significantly changed his mix of pitches this year from last, throwing his changeup 18 pct of the time (compared to only 9.8 pct last year), while shying away from his curve (2.2 pct from 9.1 pct). I don't know if that explains why his HR/BIA ratio is up to 8.6 pct (from 5.8 pct in 2008) or his runs allowed (63) is on the verge of bypassing his total for all of 2008 (66 in 63 more innings), but I guess it is possible. More likely his problem has been a bit of bad luck (or un-clutch performance, take your pick) as his LOB pct is a low 65.5 pct, compared to 72 pct in 2007 and 78.6 pct last year.

Weaver, like Baker, is your basic fly-ball pitcher (30 pct GB, 33 pct FB, 19 pct LD), although Weaver has enjoyed good success limiting those fly balls to within the ballpark (5.7 pct HR/BIA, identical to last year's rate). xFIP, however, is not very impressed, probably due to his BB rate and probably unsustainably low .264 BABIP.

The Halo's offense is led by the FFOTF, eye-eye, with a .400 wOBA, and Bobby Abreu at .378 wOBA. The team sports a highly credible .352 wOBA overall, compared to the Twins' .346, despite having three individuals with higher rates (Joe, .446; Justin, .422; and Jason, .406; plus Cuddy's .388). As a team, the Twins rank 6th in the AL in runs scored, 5th in OPS, whereas the Angels rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

Let's hope Scottie can go 7-8 innings to get to the Cheesy/Twitchy portions of the bullpen.

359 LTEs in response to 2009 Game 96: Twins at Halos