From '98 to '09. Payroll matters.
The best-managed team is the Twins, who have a .500 record, but are spending like a .450 team. The worst is the Orioles who spend like a .510 team, but have an actual .460 record.
Most of that time period is Terry Ryan's work, and Bill Smith's winter '07-'08 gambit of trading away up-the-middle talent for corner talent is not looking so good right now.
At this point, I don't really know where I'm at with the Twins. Personally, I don't think I can reasonably expect the organization to do much better than they are currently doing given the money they have spent. It is certainly theoretically possible that they could do better, but I can't tell you who it is that will actually do better. (I don't even think that Reverend Beane of the Church of Baseball Prospectus could do better on what Terry Ryan had to work with going into '98.)
I don't really know how much money there is to spend, and they're spending at comparably higher levels than they were before the last big change to revenue sharing (the one that added the luxury tax and ensured the Twins would not be contracted.) The new stadium will give them more revenue, so it will be an interesting test to see how much more they can spend with that. Almost as importantly, if the Twins can increase revenue in a tough financial climate where other teams may see decreases in revenue, that could make their dollars go farther. I would criticize their spending more if I had actual data to go on, but I don't. No one knows what the Twins' revenue streams are compared to other teams. I could get mad about it anyway, but I don't really see the point in that. I would rather just become disinterested than get mad about it.
The Twins have been able to develop some star talent and have a team that could more or less win on any given day. That's enough to keep me around, but I don't have any delusions of them being the best team in baseball. If the new stadium means that they can spend like a .500 team and be smart enough to give us a team that's .550 on average, then around that .550 average we ought to have some decent success in the playoffs, with perhaps a WS win or two. It is, of course, going to be a big challenge to continue to be the best team in baseball at squeezing the most wins out of their payroll.
In the near term, I don't see them doing anything significant at the deadline. Not because they don't care or anything, but because there's not really much for them to do. They simply don't have excess talent to trade, even if they were willing to assume some additional payroll in a trade. I think that they might be able to make some noise in the offseason if they do increase the payroll. Someone like an Orlando Hudson or Adrian Beltre (you're not going to find any perfect players out there) might be able to help and then maybe they'd be able to roll the dice on a pitcher with high upside but potential health problems. Or maybe they will be able to make a trade like the Luis Castillo trade where they are willing to take on money in exchange for not giving up much talent in return. But they need to inject more overall talent into the system, and I don't see them doing that without adding some payroll, and I don't see them adding payroll until the offseason. (Even if they are willing to assume more payroll at the deadline, I am always skeptical about the effectiveness of spending at the deadline as opposed to the offseason.)
That's it! Trade for Luis Castillo!
(That was without looking at his contract situation. $6M/year through 2010.)
if the Twins can increase revenue in a tough financial climate where other teams may see decreases in revenue, that could make their dollars go farther
Might be pretty relevant in a division that includes the Tigers. I imagine that they're more susceptible to the current economic situation than other teams.
Also, those fits shown on the graph in the linked article look like they could really be skewed by that single outlier sitting by itself out there on the right (the Yankees data point, of course). Probably doesn't change Tango's overall point...just a pet peeve of mine.
The problem with looking just at revenue versus spending is that sometimes the additional spending increases revenue.
I wish the media would look at the metro areas and the demographic characteristics to determine what revenues could/should be. Instead, the media says that St Louis is a big market while the Twin Cities is a small market.
This area has the potential to generate above average revenue. Nowhere near the NY, Phi, Chi, etc. areas but still above average. If the team (a business) doesn't maximize that revenue, I don't think they should be let off the hook for a below average player payroll.
Bill Smith's winter '07-'08 gambit of trading away up-the-middle talent for corner talent is not looking so good right now
Ubes, you made a typo there. He traded for a corner no-talent.
"Nobody doubts _elm_n's talent!!!!11one1"
I think the Twins can add payroll. It seemed to me this offseason they were being stingy because there were concerns of attendance dropping off and yet the Twins have actually increased payroll. I think even a modest trade could even boost attendance a little more unless the team starts to drop out of the race.
The problem for a trade may be there's just not much out there that isn't enough of a boost to give away the talent they do have. If Crede were healthy, I might suggest trading him for pitching and rolling the dice on Danny Valencia being ready. Of course, the Twins sort of tried that in 2007 with the Castillo trade, but that was a straight salary dump.
Even if Crede were healthy I don't know if the Twins could trade him for much more than what the Pirates got for LaRoche.
did the Pirates trade him to make room for Garret Jones, or because it was too confusing to have two LaRoches at once?
both.