Continuing with the aftermath of the Gomez/Hardy trade, let's take a closer look at the value of Denard Span's defense. He's impressed me in the field, especially in the corners, but looks can be deceiving. On the other hand, small sample size numbers can be deceiving, and he doesn't have a full season's worth of data at any one outfield position. Span's really made such an impact over the last couple of seasons that it's difficult to remember that he doesn't even have two full seasons of experience at all OF positions combined.
UZR is about as good as any other defensive metric and it's easily available. It doesn't necessarily tell a very consistent* story, though. Let's take a look at his numbers for the last two years combined:
-13.8 UZR/150G, -7.7 UZR, 83 G -- CF
+16.7 UZR/150G, +6.0 UZR, 55 G -- LF
+5.8 UZR/150G, +4.8 UZR, 117 G -- RF
*And I'm not referring to how they calculate their ratios, though I could be. There seems to be some round-off issue that I don't understand, but it's not that big of a difference since we are looking at the data to get a good idea of how he is on defense, not to measure his defensive contributions to a millionth of a run.
He grades out better in the corners than in CF, which makes sense. But it doesn't necessarily make any sense that he should be so much better in LF than in RF, and furthermore, the typical difference in value between corner OF and CF is about 10 runs per 150G, and the differences here are much larger than that.
So what I propose is to suppose that Span is 10 runs worse in CF than in the corners (and that he is equally good in each corner) and combine the data under those assumptions. This basically gives us:
-13.8 UZR/150 G, 83 G -- CF
+6.7 UZR/150G, 55 G -- LF data normalized to CF
-4.2 UZR/150G, 117 G -- RF data normalized to CF
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-8.5 UZR/150G, 255 G -- All data normalized to CF
Then, because it's still a small sample size, we should probably figure out a way to regress the data towards the mean. To do that we have to figure out what mean we are regressing towards. I would say that it's reasonable to regress Span's data to that of an average-fielding CF. Scouting-wise, no one seems to think he looks awful in CF (except perhaps in comparison to Gomez, who is well above average), and that seems like reason enough to regress him towards an average center fielder.
Usually the number that UZR proponents throw around is that you need three seasons of UZR data to make a good prediction for the next year's performance. I'll take 3 years to mean 450 games. So all we'll do here to do the regression is assume that in addition to the 255 games that he did play, Span played 195 games (the difference between 450 and 255) at exactly league average. That gives us:
-8.5 UZR/150G, 255 G, -14.5 UZR
+0.0 UZR/150G, 195 G, 0.0 UZR
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-4.8 UZR/150G, 450 G, -14.5 UZR
Overall, then, I guess I see Span as about 5 runs below an average center fielder over the course of a full season and 5 runs above an average corner outfielder over the course of a full season. He could prove me wrong (or he could improve or regress) next year, but I think that's a good estimate of where he's at right now.
Nice article, ubes. I wonder if now that Span knows he will be the #1 CF he can work full-time on reading the angles of balls hit to him and improve somewhat, as opposed to having to be ready for any of the three OF positions. The ability to focus solely on CF duties should help, but how much it will help is really up for debate.
I also wonder if Span's numbers in the corners because he was always next to GoGo. What I mean is that having GoGo in center allowed Span to cheat to corners and get to balls in foul territory that UZR considers very valuable (like the catches in the bullpens). Those out of range catches boost Span's value, but he can only make those plays because he knew Gomez had the gaps covered.
There could also be a certain "bail-out" factor where Gomez gobbling up everything in the gaps means he lets his corner outfielders off the hook, even if they would have only been penalized a little bit for not catching something in a gap.
Good point, Andrew. That was one reason I thought it was okay to keep Delmon in LF once they committed to playing him there. I would have hated to see him try to read the balls switching back and forth between the two corner spots. Span seems headier, to say the least, but switching around could definitely slow your first step by just a bit.
Span seems headier
But in all seriousness, Span strikes me as a pretty intelligent baseball player, on the whole.
His interviews definitely come across as someone who knows what's going on. Moreso that GoGo, but less entertaining.
And yet, DSPAN can never hope to match this sort of poetry.
If only we could get The Shat to read it on Conan!
Span strikes me as a pretty intelligent baseball player, on the whole
I agree, but this also works on the hole.
I don't know if you got a chance to look at the PDF I linked to in the other thread, but I think the baggie could be negatively affecting Span's and Cuddyer's numbers. Especially since the outfielders seem to play deeper than average.
I think that, in general, there could be systematic effects that haven't been dealt with that well regarding big walls on the field. IIRC, the Fielding Bible has home/road splits for Manny and he looked a lot better on the road, which would suggest that the Green Monster wasn't being dealt with appropriately. It would be nice to know home/road splits on UZR for everyone.
Of course, now we're not really going to know anything certain about the new field for 2-3 years.
sure we do. I can tell for certain that's its going to be kick@$$.
Cold comfort maybe, but foul territory at the new park is far more snug than at the HUMP.
We won't know for sure until a couple seasons are under its belt, but I'm more than a little worried that place is gonna be something of a bandbox. Not exactly what a team like the Twins needs to be competitive.
At least balls don't travel as far in cold weather. So if it is a bandbox, hopefully it won't be in April and September.
Don't forget October! Or as Kubel called it, offseason.
Of course, now we're not really going to know anything certain about the new field for 2-3 years.
Well, I'm certain that it's outdoors...
Step 1: Torpedo the team's outfield defense by trading Gomez and keeping Delmon.
Step 2: Attempt to sign VETERAN!!! fly-baller Jarrod Washburn to add to the rotation's dozen other fly-ballers.
Step 3: ?????
Step 4: PROFIT!!!
I couldn't actually read the entirety of the article you linked to. To be honest, I thought it was going to be a rick roll. /hrumph