The second spot in the lineup is a consistent source of angst amongst Twins fans. Many feel that Mauer should hit there, given a dearth of alternatives, but I'm personally loathe to move the best hitter on the team out of the #3 spot. Moving down one spot in the order doesn't take away all that many plate appearances (~18 over the course of the season) and hitting third means you're ahead of the 1 and 2 hitters instead of the 9 and 1 hitters.
Last year the Twins had a higher OBP in the #9 spot than the #2 spot, but I think a lot of that comes from Punto's good work in the 9th spot. Putting Punto in the #2 spot would have been about as popular around these parts as a constitutional amendment against apple pie. But thinking in terms of RBI opportunities, even with a .330 OBP in the #9 spot and a .300 OBP in the #2 spot, you have:
Mauer hitting second:
.000 OBP -- 1st PA, two batters ahead
.330 OBP -- 2nd PA, two batters ahead
.330 OBP -- 3rd PA, two batters ahead
.330 OBP -- 4th PA, two batters ahead
.330 OBP -- 5th PA, two batters ahead
Mauer hitting third:
.300 OBP -- 1st PA, one batter ahead
.300 OBP -- 2nd PA, one batter ahead
.300 OBP -- 3rd PA, one batter ahead
.300 OBP -- 4th PA, one batter ahead
.300 OBP -- 5th PA, one batter ahead
Figuring that say, Mauer gets 4 PA half the time and 5 PA the other half, that gives Mauer an extra 29-30 runners on base over the course of 50 games. Giving Mauer an extra 18 PA gives him maybe an extra 8 appearances on base. I say that that those two configurations more or less wash out in the end.
To me, the best way to solve this problem is to find someone with a better-than-.300 OBP to put in the second spot of the order. What are our choices? Here are some projections for OBP next year (2010 ZiPS projections when available, otherwise career OBP is used):
2010 OBP -- Dude
.418 -- Mauer (L)
.367 -- Morneau (L)
.365 -- Span (L)
.350 -- The Dude (L)
.348 -- Cuddyer (R)
.331 -- Punto (S)
.327 -- Dirty Harry (R)
.324 -- Delmon (R)
.323 -- Hardy (R)
.311 -- Tolbert (S)
The good news is that it seems unlikely that we will have a .300 OBP in the #2 spot again this year. (The bad news is that Mauer probably won't hit .365 again.) Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer all have enough power that you don't really want to limit their RBI opportunities by hitting them second. It seems like it might be fairly difficult to find a good OBP out of a right-handed hitting free agent 3B. Span is already anchored at lead-off.
At the risk of continuity, let's step back for a second and look at projected OPS+. One of the rules from The Book is that the most important part of filling out your lineup is to get your top five hitters in the top five spots.
2010 Projected OPS+ -- Dude
148 -- Mauer (L)
129 -- Morneau (L)
118 -- The Dude (L)
115 -- Cuddyer (R)
101 -- Span (L)
97 -- Delmon (R)
94 -- Hardy (R)
90 -- Dirty Harry (R)
77 -- Tolbert (S)
76 -- Punto (S)
And I would generally concur that the top five hitters on that list are the Twins' best five hitters, and it'd be nice to squeeze them all at the top, but I'd really, really rather not have four left-handed hitters at the top of the order, unless you're definitely willing to PH for one or more of them in a close game. But Mauer, Morneau, and Span are all essentially off limits when it comes to substitutions. And to keep from getting LOOGY'd to death in a LLRLL sequence, you'd probably want to be able to pinch hit for the first and fourth hitters. It might not really be that crazy to put Kubel 4th instead of Morneau, but even if our PH for Kubel is an upgrade over Kubel hitting vs. LHP, he's probably not someone you'd want hitting in an absolutely critical spot, or in the cleanup slot in general.
So even if you don't buy my argument about Mauer hitting third to get extra RBI opportunities, I think we have two legitimate problems here:
1) 4 of our top 5 hitters are left-handed and left-handed hitters have a bigger platoon disadvantage than right-handed hitters in general. (And in particular, Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel are no exception to this rule.)
2) We don't have two right-handed hitters with a good OBP.
Teaching our hitters how to hit both ways seems a bit impractical, so it seems like the best solution to the second spot in the order isn't necessarily to move Mauer there, but rather to find someone outside the organization who can hit there.
Unfortunately, coming up with a good-OBP, right-handed 2B or 3B seems kind of difficult. Even a lot of corner OF (if you want to, say, ditch Delmon) who seem to fit that mold are left-handed. (For instance, a right-handed David DeJesus in LF would be a pretty perfect fit for this team.) Chone Figgins would be a pretty good fit, though not quite ideal. He plays plus defense at third base, and has a career .363 OBP. As a switch hitter, he does hit worse against LHP than RHP, but I think he has a smaller platoon split than a typical left-handed hitter does, and his career OBP vs. LHP is still .340. Of course, Figgins had a career year last year and someone is probably going to sign him to stupid money.
Still, let me dream for a moment and say that we could get Figgins or someone like Figgins for the #2 spot. If I had to set a lineup the way Gardenhire does, largely ignoring the handedness of the starting pitcher, I'd set it something like this:
OBP, OPS+ -- Dude
.365, 101 -- Span (L, CF)
.363, 97 -- Someone like Figgins (S, 3B)
.418, 148 -- Mauer (L, C)
.367, 129 -- Morneau (L, 1B)
.348, 115 -- Cuddyer (R, RF)
.350, 118 -- Kubel (L, DH)
.323, 94 -- Hardy (R, SS)
.324, 97 -- Delmon (R, LF)
.331, 76 -- Punto (S, 2B)
And it would be reasonable to expect that lineup to score a lot of runs. My main concern in assembling that lineup would be that the extra money spent on Hardy and Figgins would make it difficult to put together an adequate pitching staff, but I haven't fully considered the 2010 pitching yet. OF defense is still a concern, but the IF defense should be really good. With a good defensive outfielder or two on the bench, it could even turn out to be an overall good defensive team over the course of a full season.
I guarantee that Span will outdo his projection. How does ZIPS project a 26-year-old with a career 117 OPS+ coming off a 114 season drop to 101? That's ridiculous. He will definitely surpass that, barring injury that isn't bad enough to keep him off the field.
I think the perfect guy for the Twins is Placido Polanco. A right-hander that has always hit lefties well (except last year) with a career .348 on-base. Even in a down year last year he was at .333. Good glove, though not as much range as he used to have. He won't cost a draft pick because the Tigers cannot risk him accepting it, which he would be smart to do.
I know this means Punto probably moves to third, but if you're going to have Figgins at third and Punto at second, you might as well save some money and years and have Polanco at second and Punto at third.
Of course, if I really get what I want, the Twins re-sign Crede or sign Pedro Feliz and push Punto to the bench to the utility role he's best suited for. Well, if I REALLY get what I want, then the Twins would sign Adrian Beltre.
How does ZIPS project a 26-year-old with a career 117 OPS+ coming off a 114 season drop to 101?
Poor minor league record and not even two full seasons of major league performance. And ZiPS doesn't know this, but PrOPS wasn't so hot about Denard's last season. He only hit enough line drives to justify roughly a .751 OPS. For all we know, last year was Span's career year and he'll never surpass it.
He will definitely surpass that
Nothing is definite and regression happens. Ask J.J. Hardy. Was he injured last year?
Don't say such things! Keiunta is gonna be great next year! I know it!
Seriously, though, projections are nothing more than best guesses. I know that PECOTA absolutely hated Mauer the last two years and he thoroughly outperformed it both times. Yep, there's a chance he could regress in 2010, but I don't think he will. I base that on nothing more than my own optimism, I suppose.
I know that PECOTA absolutely hated Mauer the last two years and he thoroughly outperformed it both times.
1. Mauer had a career year this year, of course he beat his projections. Everyone is going to beat their projection in a career year.
2. Mauer was projected this year for a .298 EQA. That's hardly hatred--it's fantastic, especially for a catcher. And it's especially not hatred against a player who has a career .306 EQA even after his historic year this year.
I base that on nothing more than my own optimism, I suppose.
Which is why it is worthwhile to have projections. I'm not saying that Span will definitely be where his projection is, but I am saying that ZiPS has a very good track record and if it projects some regression, it shouldn't just be dismissed right off because of some optimism. If a system like that is projecting regression, that means that similar players have put up similar numbers and seen regression. It happens.
At the same time, we obviously know nothing definite about the future. If someone wants to claim that Span is likely to beat that projection, I wouldn't protest much, if at all. But to say anything definite about Span's performance next year is overestimating the ability of anyone to predict the future.
ubeldude, I think the Bossman was talking about DSPAN-2 regressing, not Mauer - although his wording was sure confusing.
I'm a lawyer. It's supposed to be confusing.
Gene Richards had an OPS+ of 123 in his first two seasons (1220 PA). Third season he had an OPS+ of 100.
Tommy Glaviano: OPS+ of 117 in 818 PAs. OPS+ of 65 third season.
Ferris Fain: OPS+ of 123 in 1211 PAs. OPS+ of 103 third season.
Grady Hatton: OPS+ of 123 in 1117 PAs. OPS+ of 89 in third season.
I specifically selected for high (> .370) OBP and lowish (< .460) SLG players in an attempt to grab players most similar to Span. Fain recovered and still had a successful career through the 50s. Hatton had a long but not particularly great career -- good OBP though. Richards had two more good years but was done after eight seasons. Glaviano was done after five years.
Don't get me wrong, I hope Span beats his projections, but it has happened before.
My point was not to say that Span can't be that bad, but that I would put money down on it not happening. Sure, I could be wrong, but outside if injuries I don't see it happening. It isn't just the guy's great numbers so far, it's his approach, his ability to hit lefties and righties, his intelligence, and his confidence in himself. These tell me he just isn't going to regress that much barring injury. And don't forget his numbers last season were great despite dealing with that inner ear problem. Given that and his age, I would think it reasonable to project some improvement, especially in his power numbers.
And there is a difference between projecting a guy to be down significantly and the guy actually having a down season. ZIPS is saying Denard isn't close to being as good as he has been. The projection is saying not that he will have one bad season, but that he's had a couple career seasons. I don't buy it, especially since his approach at the plate has changed from most of his minor league career, plus he had the lasik eye surgery. I think the minor league numbers can be viewed with a grain of salt because of that.
I wouldn't say that a .750 OPS "isn't close" to an .800 OPS. Looking at PrOPS, the difference between Span hitting for a .750 OPS and an .800 OPS this year was how lucky he was on line drives.
Gene Richards had an OPS+ of 123 in his first two seasons (1220 PA). Third season he had an OPS+ of 100.
Tommy Glaviano: OPS+ of 117 in 818 PAs. OPS+ of 65 third season.
Ferris Fain: OPS+ of 123 in 1211 PAs. OPS+ of 103 third season.
Grady Hatton: OPS+ of 123 in 1117 PAs. OPS+ of 89 in third season.
I specifically selected for high (> .370) OBP and lowish (< .460) SLG players in an attempt to grab players most similar to Span. Fain recovered and still had a successful career through the 50s. Hatton had a long but not particularly great career -- good OBP though. Richards had two more good years but was done after eight seasons. Glaviano was done after five years.
Don't get me wrong, I hope Span beats his projections, but it has happened before.
(I hope this isn't a double post. Seems my last one was eaten somehow).
Hmm. I had a post listing some historical comparisons to Span's first two seasons that seems to have been marked as spam. I guess I had too many numbers in one post. So, whenever someone unspams it, I'll have something worthwhile to contribute!
took care of it for you.
Pedro Feliz? Really? He was worth the same as Punto last year but is over two years older. I guess you could argue he'll likely be cheaper but I don't see it as worthwhile to have him and Punto on the roster.
Unfortunately the player most likely to join the lineup at this point has a projected .305 OBP and 91 OPS+. Stupid Joe Crede ruins everything. And his eventual replacement has a poor projection (.294 OBP) due to his sudden inability, or disinterest, in drawing a walk.
I wouldn't mind Felipe or Placido joining this squad.
If Crede is with the Twins again next year, it's because we couldn't find anyone again and we picked him up right before spring training. I'd bet Boras is going to pull the same stuff he did last year, and the Twins will likely jump at anyone comparable that they can sign before that. Also, Crede was worth 1.9 WAR last year, so I'd hardly say that he ruins everything.
And his eventual replacement has a poor projection (.294 OBP) due to his sudden inability, or disinterest, in drawing a walk.
First, ZiPS goes back multiple years and a little blip in someone's walk rate isn't going to make a huge difference in their projection. Second:
Valencia BB% by year:
7.1% -- 2006
8.4% -- 2007
8.4% -- 2008
7.3% -- 2009
Valencia drew 6 fewer walks over a comparable number of plate appearances this year. His patience was not significantly different than it has ever been in the past.
The main reason ZiPS has his walk rate around 6% is that the competition is tougher in MLB. Valencia would have a lot better projected OBP if he had a lot better projected batting average. I'm not sure how accurate ZiPS is on minor leaguers vs. major leaguers, but one might hope that it doesn't differentiate between 24-year-olds tackling AAA for the first time and 24-year-olds repeating it for the third time in their career.
I hope your correct, in that they aren't trying to bring back Crede, but merely have it in the back of their minds. Sure he was valuable when he was on the field due to his glove, but I was pretty sick of him by August. The man only played 90 games and only spent 30 days or so on the DL. He really hurts the manager and the team when he's not healthy, which is frequent.
That impact is hard to quantify, but when Harris is your backup, you got problems. I'd go ahead and say he was a zero sum player last year.
It's hard to blame Crede for his injuries. His body is simply broken. That's the fact. Maybe he can heal up enough to play in 2010 and maybe the grass will help. But, he cost a couple mil for a reason.
I'm not gonna blame him for being injured. That's his MO. But I think you have to hold it against his actual value. What's the negative value of being a man short on the bench? Or having Harris play 3rd?
Man, Harris is awful at third.
But, again, the Twins eyes were wide open on Crede. They knew he could end up injured and they figured that half a season of Crede at a couple mil was better than a full season of the Buscher/Harris platoon. That was, in fact, correct. I would hope that given everything else (new ballpark, the need to show #7 that they really want to win) that Crede isn't the suggested answer in 2010. All I'm saying is that he performed adequately, given where they were when they signed him (Buscher/Harris).
Then again, if the alternative is OUTCab at 2B and Punto at third, give me 75 games of Crede.
I completely agree. I was happy with the signing at the time. I'm glad they did it in retrospect. I just hope we don't have to repeat the action.
Crede + Replacement last year was worth 1.9 WAR. There were only 16 3B ahead of Crede last year, the majority of which were not options for the Twins at any price.
Harris had an off-year last year, but if you combine his last two year's he's been +0.9 WAR. That's pretty decent for a back-up. And given how bad the Twins' depth was this year, carrying Crede on the bench wasn't really hurting us. If we'd actually had better depth, Crede would have been DL'd a lot more often.
I hope your correct, in that they aren't trying to bring back Crede, but merely have it in the back of their minds. Sure he was valuable when he was on the field due to his glove, but I was pretty sick of him by August. The man only played 90 games and only spent 30 days or so on the DL. He really hurts the manager and the team when he's not healthy, which is frequent.
At least Crede had the decency to ask out of the lineup when he was hurt rather than sucking in endless trips to the plate. (Cough... Punto in'07... Cough)
(cough....Mountie.....cough?)
I blame Torii Hunter for showing leadership in this area, if only with his mouth.
Assuming the Twins don't spend the money on someone like Figgins, how might Troy Glaus fit into the lineup if signed to a Crede-like, incentive-laden contract?
Interesting suggestion. I hadn't realized that Glaus had been so consistently good at the plate until '09. From '04-'08 he had a wOBA of at least .363 in each season. If you figure that he's older and would drop off somewhat, he might still be as good as a .350 wOBA or so, like he was in 2003. (He could also be totally done, too, which is of course why the contract would be incentive-laden.)
If healthy, he might hit something like .250/.340/.450 next year, which would probably put him around a 110 OPS+. That'd make him one of the top five hitters on the team, and it could be reasonable to put him in the second spot of the order. Gardy would probably go with Punto over someone slower like Glaus, and Glaus' power would be somewhat wasted there, but he strikes out enough that he's probably not going to GIDP a whole lot, and his OBP wouldn't be embarrassing in front of Mauer, though certainly not ideal.
I'd worry about him defensively, but it all depends on how healthy he is and how much he would cost.