And there is a difference between projecting a guy to be down significantly and the guy actually having a down season. ZIPS is saying Denard isn't close to being as good as he has been. The projection is saying not that he will have one bad season, but that he's had a couple career seasons. I don't buy it, especially since his approach at the plate has changed from most of his minor league career, plus he had the lasik eye surgery. I think the minor league numbers can be viewed with a grain of salt because of that.

If healthy, he might hit something like .250/.340/.450 next year, which would probably put him around a 110 OPS+. That'd make him one of the top five hitters on the team, and it could be reasonable to put him in the second spot of the order. Gardy would probably go with Punto over someone slower like Glaus, and Glaus' power would be somewhat wasted there, but he strikes out enough that he's probably not going to GIDP a whole lot, and his OBP wouldn't be embarrassing in front of Mauer, though certainly not ideal.

I'd worry about him defensively, but it all depends on how healthy he is and how much he would cost.

I specifically selected for high (> .370) OBP and lowish (< .460) SLG players in an attempt to grab players most similar to Span. Fain recovered and still had a successful career through the 50s. Hatton had a long but not particularly great career -- good OBP though. Richards had two more good years but was done after eight seasons. Glaviano was done after five years.

Don't get me wrong, I hope Span beats his projections, but it has happened before.

(I hope this isn't a double post. Seems my last one was eaten somehow).

I specifically selected for high (> .370) OBP and lowish (< .460) SLG players in an attempt to grab players most similar to Span. Fain recovered and still had a successful career through the 50s. Hatton had a long but not particularly great career -- good OBP though. Richards had two more good years but was done after eight seasons. Glaviano was done after five years.

Don't get me wrong, I hope Span beats his projections, but it has happened before.

1. Mauer had a career year this year, of course he beat his projections. Everyone is going to beat their projection in a career year.

2. Mauer was projected this year for a .298 EQA. That's hardly hatred--it's fantastic, especially for a catcher. And it's especially not hatred against a player who has a career .306 EQA even after his historic year this year.

I base that on nothing more than my own optimism, I suppose.

Which is why it is worthwhile to have projections. I'm not saying that Span will definitely be where his projection is, but I am saying that ZiPS has a very good track record and if it projects some regression, it shouldn't just be dismissed right off because of some optimism. If a system like that is projecting regression, that means that similar players have put up similar numbers and seen regression. It happens.

At the same time, we obviously know nothing definite about the future. If someone wants to claim that Span is likely to beat that projection, I wouldn't protest much, if at all. But to say anything definite about Span's performance next year is overestimating the ability of anyone to predict the future.

Man, Harris is awful at third.

Seriously, though, projections are nothing more than best guesses. I know that PECOTA absolutely hated Mauer the last two years and he thoroughly outperformed it both times. Yep, there's a chance he could regress in 2010, but I don't think he will. I base that on nothing more than my own optimism, I suppose.

Harris had an off-year last year, but if you combine his last two year's he's been +0.9 WAR. That's pretty decent for a back-up. And given how bad the Twins' depth was this year, carrying Crede on the bench wasn't really hurting us. If we'd actually had better depth, Crede would have been DL'd a lot more often.

At least Crede had the decency to ask out of the lineup when he was hurt rather than sucking in endless trips to the plate. (Cough... Punto in'07... Cough)

That impact is hard to quantify, but when Harris is your backup, you got problems. I'd go ahead and say he was a zero sum player last year.

And his eventual replacement has a poor projection (.294 OBP) due to his sudden inability, or disinterest, in drawing a walk.

First, ZiPS goes back multiple years and a little blip in someone's walk rate isn't going to make a huge difference in their projection. Second:

Valencia BB% by year:
7.1% -- 2006
8.4% -- 2007
8.4% -- 2008
7.3% -- 2009

Valencia drew 6 fewer walks over a comparable number of plate appearances this year. His patience was not significantly different than it has ever been in the past.

The main reason ZiPS has his walk rate around 6% is that the competition is tougher in MLB. Valencia would have a lot better projected OBP if he had a lot better projected batting average. I'm not sure how accurate ZiPS is on minor leaguers vs. major leaguers, but one might hope that it doesn't differentiate between 24-year-olds tackling AAA for the first time and 24-year-olds repeating it for the third time in their career.

Poor minor league record and not even two full seasons of major league performance. And ZiPS doesn't know this, but PrOPS wasn't so hot about Denard's last season. He only hit enough line drives to justify roughly a .751 OPS. For all we know, last year was Span's career year and he'll never surpass it.

He will definitely surpass that

Nothing is definite and regression happens. Ask J.J. Hardy. Was he injured last year?

I wouldn't mind Felipe or Placido joining this squad.

I think the perfect guy for the Twins is Placido Polanco. A right-hander that has always hit lefties well (except last year) with a career .348 on-base. Even in a down year last year he was at .333. Good glove, though not as much range as he used to have. He won't cost a draft pick because the Tigers cannot risk him accepting it, which he would be smart to do.

I know this means Punto probably moves to third, but if you're going to have Figgins at third and Punto at second, you might as well save some money and years and have Polanco at second and Punto at third.

Of course, if I really get what I want, the Twins re-sign Crede or sign Pedro Feliz and push Punto to the bench to the utility role he's best suited for. Well, if I REALLY get what I want, then the Twins would sign Adrian Beltre.