Value of Nick Punto's Defense

In the same spirit as my post on Denard Span's defense, let's take a look at Nick Punto's defense. He also has performances at different positions that don't make a whole lot of sense. To wit:

+3.9 UZR/150G -- 2B
+19.9 UZR/150G -- 3B
+18.1 UZR/150G -- SS

Typically 2B and 3B who switch off between positions play them relatively evenly and 2B/3B/SS who switch off between positions play SS about 5 runs per season worse than the other positions. But here we see Punto scoring much worse at 2B than 3B, even though they should be relatively equally demanding, and just as good at SS as 3B, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.

Punto is in an interesting situation, similar but different from the one that Span is in. Punto has well over 3 full seasons of UZR data to draw from (594 defensive games is roughly 4 full seasons), but he doesn't have close to 3 full seasons at any one position (208 games at 2B is well short of the 450 games in 3 full seasons.)

I do believe that infield is a materially different situation than the outfield in that all outfield positions require essentially the same set of skills in more or less the same ratios, whereas different infield positions require infielding skills in different ratios. However, just using the data, it seems to me that you'd need at least three seasons of data at each position to really establish any kind of certainty that a player is, say, an elite shortstop but only a so-so second baseman. And thinking about Punto's tools, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me that he'd be rated so much higher at SS than at 2B, or so much higher at 3B than at SS. He's got a strong arm and pretty sure hands. He is also a pretty decent runner, though I don't see him as having necessarily the best first step in the world. Which wouldn't necessarily make him a great third baseman, but should make him a pretty good middle infielder, though I can see no reason that he should be better at SS than 2B. (And even if you see his tools differently, I can't imagine a combination that makes him good at SS and 3B but not at 2B.)

So with all that said, I'm going to assume that Punto is in fact equally good (compared to league average) at 2B and 3B, and 5 runs/season worse at SS than at 2B/3B. Under these assumptions, we can normalize all of his fielding data against a league-average 2B (since I see that as his most likely position next year) and see what it all adds up to.

+3.9 UZR/150G, 5.2 UZR, 208 G -- 2B
+19.9 UZR/150G, 25.4 UZR, 192 G -- 3B normalized to 2B
+23.1 UZR/150G, 29.9 UZR, 194 G -- SS normalized to 2B
------------------------------------------------------------------------
+15.3 UZR/150G, 60.5 UZR, 594 G -- All IF positions normalized to 2B

I won't do a regression to the mean here in the way that I did with Span because the data all combined together is more than three season's worth of data.

That makes Punto roughly a +15 runs/season fielder at 2B or 3B, and a +10 runs/season fielder at SS, at least if we're using UZR as our inputs. I believe that other systems don't rate him as highly, but this data doesn't strike me as being outrageous. If you thought he was more like +10 at 2B/3B and +5 at SS, I wouldn't blame you, but I think it's fairly clear that he's an above-average up-the-middle defender, which definitely has value. (And if you find him difficult to stomach because of his headfirst slides into first base and boneheaded bunt attempts, I also wouldn't blame you.)

11 comments to Value of Nick Punto’s Defense

  • AMR

    More evidence to me that Punto is a quality MLB player whose deficiencies are just maddeningly frustrating.

    • SBG

      Right. I think it's hard to argue that he's not an above average defender. Plus, he takes walks (for whatever reason, I think it's been pointed out that he's not got the best plate discipline -- maybe just a small K zone). But, good God, stop sliding into first and learn how to bunt.

  • I've always thought Punto had better hands than he had range. That's why I thought he'd be a better 3B than 2B. I have no idea how to reconcile the fact that his numbers look better at SS than 2B.

    The thing that bothers me the most about Punto is that he still will not play within his abilities. He'll get in stretches where he's making solid contact but he's taking an upper cut swing and the results are normally routine fly balls. When he's hitting a high percentage of line drives and taking a lot of pitches, he actually has some offensive value.

    Sliding into first, trying to bunt for a hit instead of sacrifice when asked, and using the crowd noise over the advice of his base coach are other examples of trying to do too much. Between that and having the manager constantly fawning over him while deriding the same mistakes in others really just top it off for me.

    • To my observations, Punto seems to have great instincts on defense. I can't remember him doing anything boneheaded out in the field, and in fact he's made some really outstanding plays (glove flip to second, barehanded dive throw to first, etc). He's certainly the sort of guy you like to have available to fill in at any IF position; it's just unfortunate that he's not as intelligent with a bat in his hands.

  • It's kind of surprising that his shortness doesn't seem to hurt him at least at 3B, and even SS to some degree.

  • Everything said, I'm ok with him as a starter for the 2010 Twins assuming the other 2B/3B is better than a two win player. Polanco/DeRosa/Hudson/Glaus/Kouzmanoff.

    I'm much less ok with it if it means Gardy gets his way and Cabrera is back at second. Or Crede is back.

  • I will point out that Punto led the Twins with sacrifices last year, so he can bunt. I have no way of knowing his success rate, but I know he will too often try to bunt for a hit instead of just laying the bunt down when necessary. Honestly, I like trying for the bunt hit unless it is a critical bunt situation (late innings, tie or one-run deficit, runner at first, no outs).

    The base running is what drives me nuts. I knew that Punto would be too far off first in that final playoff game. There was no doubt in my mind that he would be overly aggressive and I was just hoping the Yankees would blow the play somehow.

    • I have no way of knowing his success rate, but I know he will too often try to bunt for a hit instead of just laying the bunt down when necessary.

      And that's my problem with his bunting. Actually, it's more his attitude that pisses me off. It's the same stupid attitude that fuels his headfirst slides into first base. He feels like he knows better than anyone else, so he won't listen to Gardy when he's told to sacrifice, just like he won't listen to Gardy and stay on his feet going into first base.

      • I suspect a lot of people tend not to listen to the boss when there are no consequences for not listening to the boss. Punto has done these things for years, and he's still in the starting lineup, so he's going to keep doing them.