Everything seems to be pointing towards Pavano accepting salary arbitration tonight. I think that'll work out fine for the Twins. It seems unlikely that they'll actually stand in front of an arbitration hearing, but will probably reach some compromise on a one-year deal with plenty of incentives (maybe an option?) or maybe a two-year deal that has a pretty low per-year value.
It's really hard for a one-year deal to significantly hurt a team, and when Pavano's been healthy, he's been pretty good. He hasn't been healthy all that often, which is why a one- or two-year deal is even an option, but such a short-term deal decreases the Twins' exposure to risk greatly.
Last year, Pavano made $1.5M in base salary and $3.1M in incentives, if I counted the incentives correctly. So the arbitration starting point would probably be somewhere around $4.6M.
Say that Pavano has a roughly equal chance of any of his last seven seasons looking like his 2010 season. That's fairly pessimistic health-wise--4 of 7 years of less than 1 win above replacement. Well, he still managed to average about 1.9 WAR per season over the last seven years, because when he's been healthy, he's been pretty good.
It's early this offseason, but I'm getting the impression that marginal wins on the free agent market are going to be valued at something closer to $3M/win than the $4.5M/win they have been recently. That would make Pavano worth something like $6M on a one-year deal in the current economic climate. And I have a hard time seeing him getting more than $6M in arbitration. It's possible, but with three unhealthy seasons before this year and less-than-stunning totals in traditional stats like ERA and wins over that period, I think he'll have trouble getting a huge boost over that $4.6M he made last year.
In Bill Smith's position, I'd try to get Pavano to agree to a $6M/1yr deal or maybe a $10M/2yr deal, hopefully less, and hopefully not all guaranteed. And I think it'd be worth it because our starting pitching depth is suspect and the free agent options are just as suspect.
Given his history, there seems to be a good 30-50% chance that Pavano will give us next-to-nothing next year, but there's also a significant chance that he'll stay healthy and turn in a performance that would be worth $12-13M/year if he had a better health track record. That's why I'm mainly in favor of keeping Pavano around on a short deal--we need players to outperform what they are getting paid, and Pavano has a reasonable chance of doing that, just like Crede did last year.
Veteran starter: check. Sorry Washburn, quota filled. (Thank the FSM).
RAmen
Oh, man, that's worth tacking on another $1M right there.
I'd still like to see another starter brought it, but Duensing is a reasonable starting point for a fifth starter next year and there'll be enough competition to give a little depth there. Hopefully, Guerra will continue to develop and improve, or Liriano finds his fastball command, otherwise the Twins will need someone to do a Baker or Garza like one-year run through the system to have a reasonable chance at getting a better than replacement starter.
BOOF!!!!
I'd of rather seen some of our younger options getting a chance in the rotation but for one year, and presumably instead of Washburn, I can deal with this.
If Pavano is healthy, there is a very small likelihood any two of Duensing/Swarzak/Manship/whoever else there is are both better than him.
I am bothered by your avatar. Mok'tah!
I have semi-retired that one for use on special occasions only.
so, it's like the Mark Prior of avatars?
The Enterprise should've drafted Kurn...
I like it. Pavano accepted and is in the fold. He's a much better risk than, say, Livan Hernandez, which is the kind of stiff we were hoping to somehow overperform in years past.
Plus the added benefit of any "In your face!" victories over the Yankees.
You mean we're allowed to beat the Yankees?
Gardy...is that you?!
Chances are slim that we'll hafta 'DFA the bum'.
Sorry, Boof. I didn't mean you--slim, DFA, or bum. (Well, maybe bum...)