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Game 137: Rangers at Twins

Time: 1:10 p.m. CDT

TV: WFTC

Radio: TRN, XM 180

Starting Pitchers: C.J. Wilson (14-5, 2.88 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. New Nick Blackburn (1-2, 2.16, 0.78).

"New" Nick Blackburn is of course Blackburn since he was promoted back to the major leagues when Kevin Slowey went on the DL. The most encouraging fact is that Blackburn has as many strikeouts (13) as base runners allowed in 16 2/3 innings. I certainly don't expect him to maintain a K-rate of nearly8 per 9 IP going forward, but if he can maintain it around 6, he can be quite good, especially if can keep the base runners pounding the ball into the ground when they do put it in play.

New Blackburn's biggest problem has been run support as the Twins have managed to score all of one run in his two starts. Runs may again be hard to come by today as Blackburn will be dueling with C.J. Wilson, who is on his own hot streak.

Wilson is 7-0 in his last nine starts, all Rangers victories. He has dropped his ERA from 3.35 in that stretch. He's confounded the Twins for the most part as well. The Twins collectively are hitting .173 off him in 35 career innings.

I'm surprised I haven't heard more noise for Wilson for the Cy Young in a pretty weak season for dominant pitching performances. He's probably snuck up on people because he was just 7-5 before taking off the last six weeks. But Wilson is second in the AL in WAR for pitchers (according to B-Ref) and third in adjusted ERA+.  He also leads the league in fewest hits per 9 IP.

The Twins have had difficulty finishing off sweeps this season. This one would be real nice considering the uncertainty of the bullpen for the first two games. The bullpen is in much better shape now to support Blackburn. After today, the Twins play only one winning team, the White Sox in Chicago for three, before finishing the season with four games against the Blue Jays. Let's make that last series irrelevant. GO TWINS!!

2010 Game 136: Rangers @ Twins

Colby Lewis (167 IP, 3.56 ERA 3.52 FIP 3.92 xFIP) v. Carl Pavano (189 IP, 3.52 ERA 3.73 FIP 3.94 xFIP)

You need guys like Colby Lewis if you want to win.

It's true.

Of course, if a team doesn't have some dudes like Mauer or Morneau, it ain't gonna be easy, but dudes like Mauer and Morneau cost $$$$. The Rangers went out and signed Colby Lewis to a two year, $5 million deal in the off season, hoping that success that he'd had in Japan would translate into success in the majors. In other words, the Rangers made a small gamble... and jackpot. Lewis is making $1.75 million this year and so far, he's produced $14.9 million worth of value. They also hold a club option on him for 2012, but if he turns into a huge pumpkin, he's still been very valuable to this club in 2010 and there's an old saying that flags fly forever. The Rangers are going to win their first division title in over a decade. Unless you are the Yankees, it's guys like Colby Lewis that make things like that happen. Come to think of it, the Yanks would much rather have Lewis than A.J. "Cream Pie" Burnett.

Guys like Pavano don't hurt your effort, either. He's kind of scuffled lately, but even still, he's given the Twins a ton of innings and if you throw out one bad outing, he's been pretty darned good. He and Lewis are having almost the same year overall, with Pavano making a few more bucks and throwing a few more innings. It's the Guys You Need to Find to Win day at Target Field. Let's hope our GYNTW is better than theirs.

2010 Game 135: Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins

Derek Holland: 28.1 IP, 8.26 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 1.91 HR/9, 36.5 GB%, 4.76 ERA, 5.40 FIP
                          229.3 IP, 9.85 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 46.1 GB%, 2.47 ERA, 3.05 FIP
vs
Matt Fox: 124.0 IP, 7.55 K/9, 3.70 BB/9, 32.8 GB%, 3.65 ERA, 4.63 FIP (2010)
                  537.7 IP, 7.57 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 38.5 GB%, 3.71 ERA, 3.90 FIP (overall)

I've got nothing on Fox. Decent strikeout rate, less control than we're used to seeing from Twins pitchers, and about the amount of (non) ground ball tendencies.

Holland is like the better version of Fox: more strikeouts, fewer walks, more ground balls, and left-handed. Holland hasn't pitched much this year due to injuries and so has struggled some in the majors. Some might remember his short start against the Twins where his good velocity was nonexistent and was pulled in the second when it remained hidden. He's swapping roles with Harden and last started August 18th when the Rays knocked him around for five runs in four and a third innings. Hopefully the Twins can get to him early and take a healthy lead before the Texas bullpen takes over.

Note: First pitch won't actually be until about 7:40 CDT because of awards and ceremonies.

2010 Game 134 continuation

2010 Game 134: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Last year, these late Tiger series were a lot more exciting, but injuries have brought a lot of no-name Tigers into this one. Still, we've got Verlander on the hill, and it's always nice to beat him.

Justin Verlander 14-8, 3.58 ERA, 8.48 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 39.0 GB%, 3.42 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 4.0 WAR
Scott Baker 12-9, 4.55 ERA, 7.33 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, 36.9 GB%, 3.96 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 2.4 WAR

The White Sox are idle today after a couple of late-inning "heroics" allowed them to stay semi-close in this race; I'd like to see the Twins cruise toward a no-doubt division title for the first time in a while, though. I have some calls to make soon here (good news on the stepsister front; she had the C-section a couple of days ago and is recovering well) so I'll bail out here. It seems like the Twins do better when I don't talk much about the game, and some clown scheduled our money league draft at the same time so I'll barely be able to pay attention anyway. Oh well...go Twins.

Game 133: Tigers in Minnesota

White Sox already won today. Paulie must want Manny to like him. Manny hit like a typical 2010 Pale hose DH.

Tonight pits Scherzer versus Liriano. This match has the potential for a lot K's or a lot of runs, or maybe both. Consistent in its inconsistency.

Lineups:
-Twins
1. Span 8,
2. Casilla 4,
3. Mauer 2,
4. Cuddyer 3,
5. Young 7,
6.Valencia 5,
7. Morales DH,
8. Repko 9,
9. Hardy 6.

Let's not lose the DH tonight guys[edit: Thome was scratched from the lineup after I wrote this.  I take full karma responsibility]. Go Twins!

2010 Game Logs: Game 132 Tigers @ Twins

This is probably going to the last game, for a least a month, that Brendan Harris is not going to be on the Twins roster.  Personally, I am excited for the [redacted] phrase to work its way back into the WGOM lexicon.  Also, I spent $20 on this shirt in May that has already become outdated.

And the girls of Rochester, New York exhale.

2010 Game 130: Twins @ Mariners

Nick Blackburn v. Doug Fister

Blackburn is back for his second start following his mid-summer vacation to upstate New York, where he seemed to remember that old song (For it's one, two, three strikes you're out), posting a 5.40 K/9 rate in 21.2 innings of SSST. In his first start back, he K'd five Texas Rangers in seven innings, which would be a manna from heaven rate for the Twins from Nicky. The Rangers strike out 16.4% of the time (league average 17.4%) Mariners are a pretty strikeout happy team (19.4%, behind only the Rays and Jays in the AL), so maybe this club and their generally sucky offense will provide a confidence boost for Mr. Blackburn. Breathe through your eyelids, kid!

Doug Fister is tall.

The Twins have faced the 6'8, 193 pound string bean twice so far this year. On May 31, Cuddyer, Delmon, and The Dude all did some yard work in a 5-4 Twins win. Fister gave up 5 runs in 7 2/3 IP, with 6 Ks, no walks, and those three jacked dongers. F-Bomb went six innings and Gardy then went to Crain, Guerrier and Rauch, who gave a run in the ninth but still nailed down a "save".

On July 30th, Mr. Fister (heh) gave up jacked dongers to JI

JIM THOME and Lexi, as the Twins won 5-3. Mr. Fister allowed 5 runs (2 earned) in 5 innings and then looked to the bullpen, probably because his mound opponent that night, Scott Baker, manned up for 5 1/3 before Gardy ran through Mijares, Crain, Guerrier and Capps, who got a save. You might remember that this was Mr. Capps' first appearance with the Twins and afterwards the local media went on and on about how Gardy had such a deep bullpen that he could just go out and make four pitching changes a night and lock down win after win after win. The cringing at the WGOM World Headquarters was palpable. Since then, the Twins have plucked a Flores off the scrap heap and traded for another proven (All-Star!) closer. (How much fun is it that the Angels are sellers?)

Maybe tonight, Gardy can get 4 innings out of Blackburn and then turn to Neck Tat, Guerrier, Crain, Capps, and Fuentes. That would be like a new toy for the manager. You know that Crain and Guerrier will be pitching. What would really be cool is if Fuentes got a save. The Twins will win 5-2 with a single jacked donger, let's say that Joe Mauer gets it.

2010 Game 129: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

Scott Baker: 151.2 IP, 7.42 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 36.5 GB%, 4.63 ERA, 3.99 FIP
vs
Jason Vargas: 152.0 IP, 5.68 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 37.1 GB%, 3.43 ERA, 3.98 FIP

I wonder how the various announcers will compare these two. Their FIPs, innings pitched, and ground ball rates are essentially identical and even their win-loss records (11-9, .550 and 9-6, .563) are similar enough. Vargas has the run-plus advantage in ERA though. First his poor outing against the Yankees will be mentioned (seven runs in 6.1 innings). After that, his lack of run support will probably be talked about, but that's not exactly a unique problem on the Mariners.

And whoa, Twins acquire Fuentes for a PTBNL? I definitely like him better as the LOOGY. Naturally he'll be another setup guy or (shudders violently) using him in the ninth. Please let those ninth inning appearances only be blow outs.

2010 Game 128: Joe Mauer at Josh Hamilton

It's not my day.

It was supposed to be. I had a project at work that I enjoy doing, and it's my sister's 19th birthday. Liriano vs. Lee. It was supposed to be a good day.

This morning I get to work, and find out that my best friend there has gone into labor prematurely. Two months prematurely, in fact. It's a complication of cancer, which she found out she had just weeks after her baby was conceived.

She passed out at work yesterday and has been bed-ridden at the hospital ever since, and as today has worn on, it's only gotten worse. Apparently both mother and child are in serious danger at this point. This is one of the only two people at work that I talk to on a regular basis. There was a third, but a few months ago he tripped out of a hotel window and fell four stories to his death. My luck with work friends has never been great.

So at work, I'm the walking dead. The project that I enjoy doing became the project I hate, because it's a project I'm finishing for the pregnant girl and I can't stop thinking about how she's doing.

A few hours into my shift, the phone rings. My dad. It's about my stepsister. My sister, really, since we're close enough that I generally leave the "step" part out. She has a cavernoma. There are a lot of different kinds, but the best way to explain this one is that her brain is tying itself in knots. It's behind her skull, so it was believed to be inoperable. I knew all this before. The thing is, she's pregnant too, and now that she's almost to term the doctors are saying that the way her cavernoma has gotten worse in the past few months, there's a real chance that she'll die if she tries to give birth naturally. The problem here is that she insists on a natural birth. She says if she can't do that, she doesn't want to live. Kudos for her bravery, if not her thought process.

If she survives childbirth, two procedures are scheduled by one of the top specialists in the world who believes he has a chance to fix the cavernoma, despite the initial diagnosis of "inoperable." The procedures are dangerous. Even if she lives that long, we're prepared.

I finished out work without a word to anyone. I got home and tried to bury myself in movies and food and online chatting to forget it, but obviously, I had to deal with this. I'm sorry that I'm dealing with it here, but when have the Twins ever responded to one of my game previews with a win anyway, you know?

I repeat, this is not a game preview. It merely appears in the space where normally, there would be one. C'mon, Liriano. C'mon, Twins. Win one for the Milkster.

Game 127: Twins at Rangers

Twins 0 - Rangers 2.

Two games to go.  This one's on the 4ltr^2.  Don't cancel your cable until tomorrow.

I missed two weeks of Twins baseball and missed ii's squad losing.  There's a certain TV thats still cracked due to a Twins Angels game a couple of years ago somewhere in Des Moines . . . apparently shoes can break screens from 15 ft.  Anyway thats a series I'll be revisiting soon.  The twins have been on a pretty good post break roll, but the Rangers are their first "real" threat outside of their division besides TB and Seattle [Zing] of course.  The last two games of this series must be the most important games of the 2010 season.  So far.  Until Friday.  Or next week.  But I digress.

After throwing a Bearded Pirate and a Mustache at the Rangers to no avail tonight the Twins will try a new strategy:

Why not?  With the aid of a pointy hat Duensing has done a great job since joining the rotation.  Especially if you only look at his W-L record.  But his line has at least coincided with this record, there doesn't appear to be any devil deals going on here, but perhaps some lowly demon is at work.  Or it could be because he's a southpaw:

Starting Pitchers


Twins: Brian Duensing
-84.1 IP, 5.12 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, .249 BABIP, 53.6% GB, 6.3% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP [ I choose to ignore that BABIP.]

Rangers: C.J. Wilson
-158.0 IP, 7.29 K/9, 4.04 BB/9, .257 BABIP, 49.9% GB, 5.3% HR/FB, 4.30 xFIP

Guess the Author:

The Yankees and Rays are good teams. The Rangers are, too. But don’t sleep on the Twins – you can make a pretty good case that they’re the best team in baseball this year. I certainly wouldn’t want to play them in October.

Answer.

GO TWINS!  and O's!

2010 Game Logs: Game 126 Twins @ Rangers

Dear Carl Pavano,

I have been doing some thinking. You have got the people, especially those of a facial hair growing age, pretty much eating out of your hands right now. People from Fargo to Algona, Sioux Falls to Madison, Duluth to Rochester, people all over Twins Territory are growing mustaches, much to the chagrin of their significant others, as an homage to you.

I am sure this must feel pretty cool. After your New York years having a fan base embrace you so wholly must be incredibly gratifying. The thing is, I just have one complaint. Mustaches are kind of played out. I mean, look at these kids in Upper Midwest:


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2010 Game 125: Twins at Rangers

Get Behind Me, Satan!

Nick Blackburn returns from purgatory bearing the Number of the Beast: a 6.66 ERA. His 4.03 FIP at Rochester isn't exactly striking the fear of god into anyone either. Thank goodness he's making his return in a Pitcher's Park™

Umm, yea. The Ballpark in Arlington ranks 6th in the majors in HR park factor (1.275), behind New Yanqui (bandbox!) at a ridiculous 1.603, the Cell (1.467), Coors (1.382), Rogers Centre (1.348), and the GABP in Cincy (1.300).

Tarzhay ranks dead last (0.561). But, you know, you never know how a new ballpark is gonna play until it happens, right, sean?

On teh bright side, the scheduled starter for the West-leading Rangers is former Athletics and Cubbies fireballer and DL frequent flyer Rich Harden (5.45 ERA, 6.47 FIP, 5.83 xFIP, 64 tRA+, 64:50 K:BB, 16 HRs in 74 1/3 innings).

Over the last month, Harden sports a competent 206/364/412 slash line, but for the year he has been awful, allowing RH hitters an .809 OPS, lefties .865. This game should be a slugfest.

and if it comes to that, the Rangers have some slug, focusing on the Best Player in Baseball™ (356/407/624) and Nelson Cruz Missile (320/381/587).

Expect this game to come down to a battle of bullpens in the Texas evening humidity. Texas has a deep bullpen, led by 22-year old closer Neftali Perez (2.47 tRA, 53:15 K:BB in 52 innings, albeit only a 3.16 FIP and 3.76 xFIP), lefty Darren Oliver (2.83 tRA, 56:13 K:BB in 49 2/3), Frank Francisco (3.06 tRA, 60:17 K:BB in 52 1/3) and Darren O'Day (1.47 ERA in 49 innings). With any luck, the Twins will work their way to Chris Ray during the series. The former Orioles closer has fallen off a cliff this season. His K rate is way down and control awful (26:23 K:BB in 46 2/3 innings, compared to 51:27 in 66 innings in his best year, 2006). [ed: as pointed out in the comments, Ray and his Suck are now with the Giants. So nevermind]

Having predicted a slugfest, I've all but guaranteed a worm-burning pitcher's duel. Give the devil his due.

Game 124: Angels at Twins (Sunday Night Game Alert!)

Time: 7:10 CDT

TV: ESPN

Radio: TRN, XM 180

Starting Pitchers: Jered Weaver (11-8, 3.11, 1.10 WHIP) vs. Scott Baker (10-9, 4.85, 1.34)

I have something of an inferiority complex when it comes to the Twins. Well, that's not true. I'm not sure what you would call it, but I always put more emphasis on these nationally televised games. (And I mean true nationally televised, not like on FOX where only a quarter of the country, if that, will see it). I really want the Twins to do well in front of the country, probably because I figure most of the country outside of the Upper Midwest isn't going to know just how good the Twins are most of the time, mainly because of the skewed coverage of a certain sports channel that won't be named here (because its name is a four-letter word). It's not like I should worry about opinion as much as wins and losses, but I do like the idea of someone out East going, "You know, these guys are pretty good." It probably also has a lot to do with the Twins' record when they travel out East as well.

I probably am overreacting. Joe Mauer got more votes than any AL All-Star, including Derek Jeter, and Justin Morneau beat out Kevin Youkilis at first base, so it's not like people haven't heard of the Twins. But I still really hate to have the Twins look bad on national TV.

This is the final game of a very good nine-game homestand. The Twins began it with a one-game lead and will have expanded on it regardless of the results today. However, after winning the first five games of the homestand, it sure would be disappointing to lose three of the final four games.

Of more concern is the rotation. After receiving brilliant starting pitching for more than three weeks, the last turn through the rotation was pretty ugly save for another great outing by Brian Duensing the other day. The other four veteran starters got hit around and had short starts. Things were made worse on Saturday when the Twins announced that Kevin Slowey was heading to the DL and the beleaguered Nick Blackburn was returning to the team. The reports from Rochester were mostly positive for Blackburn, but the way he was being hit around this season by major leaguers, I'll believe it when I see it.

This is why it is a pretty important start for Baker, who has been good at times, but mostly disappointing. Some might say he's just had bad luck because of his good K and BB rates, but I haven't seen too much of that when watching him pitch. What I've seen is a guy who can't figure out how to get his slider out of the strike zone consistently and especially when he needs it. He gets ahead of hitters and they still pound him with two strikes because he either hangs a slider or they foul off sliders and he tries to go with a fastball and that gets hit. Baker has allowed nine home runs this year with two strikes, three of them on 0-2 counts. When he does get that slider biting out of the zone, then watch out. That's when he has a dominant outing. But those have been too few and far between this year. Baker also was hit pretty hard in his last two starts, both against the White Sox, but the Twins have won his last five starts.

Baker will be facing off against Jered Weaver, who could be the most underrated pitcher in the AL. He leads the AL in Ks, is seventh in ERA, third in WHIP and tied for third in WAR for pitchers, according to B-Ref. His record is just 11-8 because of a lack of run support, which has been really bad of late. In his last 10 starts, the Angels have scored two runs or less seven times. Weaver is coming off one of his worst starts of the season when he gave up six earned runs in five innings in Boston. The Angels of course got shutout in that game.

This has been a good homestand, but a win tonight would make it a great one. GO TWINS!!!

2010 Game 123: LAAA @ Minnesota

Bell v. Slowey

The Twins look to win the series on Saturday after stomping the lifeless Angels on Friday night. The Angels are under .500 and almost certainly not punching a ticket to the post-season. I'm pretty happy about that.

Torii Hunter is back in town and he's taking credit for the stadium? Well, not really. He probably did go to a few luncheons and help lobby a little for the deal and of course that can only mean one thing for sportswriters: The House that Torii Built!!!!111!! It must be great to be a sportswriter, creating alternate realities in which to live. We all know that Torii likes to talk and I found this to be entertaining:

When Hunter left, the Twins knew they were getting a new stadium, but they were still stuck with a payroll that hovered between $60-70 million, and Hunter's price tag was simply deemed too high.

We'll never know if Hunter would have stayed in Minnesota if given the current financial circumstances, but one thing is certain -- his respect for the Twins organization has never been more evident.

"This is totally different," Hunter said. "I can't even explain to people how professional and classy this stadium -- what this organization looks like right now. They look great. You walk into the stadium and you're like, 'damn, Twins.'"

The Twins weren't going to give Torii a shitpile of money, they had to take care of the foundation, Mauer and Morneau, which they did. Another place where the Twins look great right now is in the standings. Check 'em out, Torii, if you can look up that high.

Meanwhile, Kevin Slowey, who hasn't yielded a hit in about two weeks, takes the mound tonight. After three crappy outings against the White Sox, hopefully Slowey can build on his last start and follow in the footsteps of Mr. Duensing, who's been terrific. Go. Twins!