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Last Trip to Beloit

Big Mak June 25, 2009, at 6:00 am 7 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

BeresfordSteals

Due to our impending move to Kansas, catching Snappers games is about to become a lot more difficult just due to sheer distance. Thus, we took advantage last weekend and took in the last game of the first half of the season for Beloit against the Quad Cities River Bandits (Cardinals A affiliate).

This was doubly exciting because earlier in the week Aaron Hicks had been called up to take a spot on the roster. I was hoping to get a chance to see him play this year before I left, and he made it just in time.

HicksPickoff


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Back to Beloit

Big Mak July 22, 2008, at 7:00 am 9 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

For my wife's birthday, she decided she wanted to go to a ballgame with a couple of friends (How did I get so lucky?). So once again we drove up to Wisconsin to see the Snappers take on the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Seattle Mariners A affiliate).

The Snappers roster this time around looks quite a bit different right now than it has all year. There were a few promotions during since the All-Star break and Beloit has been recently hit by more than their share of injuries. Joooooooooooooooe Benson (back), Deibinson Romero (leg), and Chris Parmelee (wrist, pictured below forlornly coaching first) are all out for the year.

Jair Fernandez is also out for some time with a cast on his right arm. That didn't stop him from warming up the pitcher when the catcher (Greg Yersich) wasn't ready to go. Of course, since the cast was on his throwing hand, warming up the pitcher became a three-man operation (pitcher, catcher, ball return guy). Then in the top of the ninth inning the third out came on a strikeout and the batter's follow through caught Yersich on the back of the head with his bat and drew a fair amount of blood. Add to that Ozzie Lewis did not play Sunday and was placed on the DL on Monday, and clearly this team a little snakebit right now.

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers - 8, Beloit Snappers - 4
box score | play by play

As for the game itself, it was kind of a disappointment. I don't know if the lineup had too many new guys, but the defense was not very good behind Michael Tarsi. Outfielders consistently threw to the wrong base allowing at least three runners to take an extra 90 feet, infielders checked runners for so long that they didn't throw out the guy at first, and they made three errors. Tarsi didn't help out much, he gave up some solid hits, was pretty wild all afternoon (1 walk but a lot of 3 ball counts), and one run scored on a wild pitch. It added up to a lot of pitches in 4.1 IP, probably around 80 to 90, and he left with the Snappers down 7-1.

The Snappers managed to keep the game interesting however, they drew 7 walks to add to their 7 hits and 1 HBP, so there were scads of baserunners. Unfortunately, the hits were all singles after Ben Revere's 1st inning triple, so it was a lot of running around the bases, but not as much scoring as one would like to see with 15 baserunners.

Besides Revere's triple, Mark Dolenc got on base 3 times (hit, walk, HBP), stole his 23rd base, and scored 2 runs. One of them was on this sac fly by Yersich, I thought I had the CF in frame, and if I had, I think this would have been the best pic I've taken at these games. He's still back there, it just isn't quite the perfect shot.

Estarlin De Los Santos got two singles and an RBI, otherwise not too many notes on the Beloit offense. Michael Allen did a great job in relief, posting 3.2 scoreless innings in his 3rd appearance with the Snappers. The weather was great and the company was top notch, so I'm not going to complain about anything so silly as the score, but this was a team that was missing a few key players, and it showed.

Other pics:

Michael Tarsi
Pitching

Pitching

 Fielding Fuming
Snappy D. Turtle Dancing
Michael Allen Pitching
Ben Revere Batting Batting Running
Estarlin De Los Santos Batting Batting Batting
Jeanfred Brito Batting Batting Batting
Mark Dolenc Running Running
Juan Richardson Batting Batting
Yangervis Solarte Batting Batting Batting Batting Running
Home Plate Umpire Sweating

[note to SBG: I uploaded the photos to your server, but they are huge. Let me know if that's a problem, I think I can trim their size a bit.]

Less Than Small Sample Size

ubelmann July 10, 2008, at 3:30 pm 13 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

But I thought I'd throw it out there:

.309/.397/.436 -- Aaron Hicks, 18, GCL (13 games)

For reference:

.400/.488/.491 -- Joe Mauer, 18, APP
.322/.385/.538 -- Delmon Young, 18, SAL
.325/.388/.461 -- Ben Revere, 19, GCL
.276/.355/.451 -- Michael Cuddyer, 19, MWL
.293/.342/.439 -- Torii Hunter, 18, MWL
.281/.303/.407 -- Carlos Gomez, 18, APP/GCL
.302/.327/.396 -- Justin Morneau, 18, GCL
.282/.364/.372 -- Jason Kubel, 18, GCL
.249/.313/.301 -- Craig Monroe, 18, GCL (Holy Badness, Batman!)

It's early, it's early, it's early, it's early. But I do like that the Twins have been able to already sign Hicks and have him learning out on the field already. That he's done reasonably well so far is also very nice.

And again, it's early, it's early, it's early, but Ben Revere has put on his four-fingered ring and is totally pimp-slapping the Midwest League. After 51 games for Revere (which is where Baseball Reference has updated so far, but it's not quite completely up-to-date), he's leading the league in OPS, while posting a .407/.459/.560 line.

The .560 slugging is a bit misleading, because it's "just" a .153 ISO. So, it's not like he was showing the same kind of power that Delmon Young showed in the minors, but for instance, Joe Mauer's best ISO in the minors was .120 as a 21-year-old. Also, Denard Span's best ISO up until this year was .088, and when Span was 20, his ISO was an almost mind-bogglingly low .047.

And it's not really just that Revere is leading the MWL in OPS, he's crushing everyone even close to his age. After Revere, the next four guys on the list are 22 or 23. The next guy on the list is Chris Parmelee, whose .239/.385/.496 is crazy in its own right. That's a couple tons of power (.257 ISO is probably the best in the entire system--certainly higher than Morneau and Kubel's current sub-.200 ISO), and another ton and a half of walks (52 walks is the most in the system, better even than Mauer's 47), but the batting average has to be a concern. Even Adam Dunn, career .247 hitter, hit .304 in the minors. I suspect that Parmelee's name is going to be mispelled about eleventy bajillion times if he ever makes the bigs, but it might just be easier to spell his name R-O-B D-E-E-R.

Anyway, back to Revere. Parmelee is second to Revere in the MWL in OPS for players 21 and under. But the gap between the two players is relatively huge, with Revere at 1.019 and Parmelee at .881. Then we get to third place in the 21-and-under category, and we have Andrew Lambo at .810--more than 200 points below Revere. In batting average for the 21-and-unders, Revere is hitting .407 and the next best player (Adrian Ortiz) is hitting .311. No one knows how long any of this will last, but righ tnow, relative to his age group, Revere is just crushing the competition.

Beloit Doubleheader

Big Mak May 29, 2008, at 8:00 am 20 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) ,

Last Saturday, my parents were coming into town, and, since Beloit is pretty close to on the way from Marshall to Chicago, we figured why not take in a game to kick off the Memorial Day weekend? After checking the schedule and noticing the unusual start time of 5 PM, I took off from work a bit early and headed up to Wisconsin. In about the fifth inning, a whole bunch of people started to show up, talking about how they didn't realize the game time had changed. But, the others in the stands behind us assured them that this was a doubleheader so they would get to see a game after the current one. This was news to me, but I'm always up for watching more baseball, so this report will cover both games of May 24, as the Snappers swept the doubleheader from the Burlington Bees (Kansas City's A affiliate).

Game 1 - Beloit 8, Burlington 0 (7 inn.) (box score - play-by-play)

Game 2 - Beloit 3, Burlington 1 (7 inn.) (box score - play-by-play)


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Beloit Repoit

Big Mak May 22, 2008, at 8:00 am 9 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

I went up last weekend on Sunday to see the Snappers take on the Peoria Chiefs (the Chicago Cubs A-level team). The Snappers won to complete the 3-game sweep and move to two games over .500, which was their high-water mark for this season to that point.

Final Score: Beloit 5, Peoria 4 (box score - play-by-play)

Pictures and more to follow


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Minor League Bonanza

ubelmann May 13, 2008, at 6:30 am 20 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

Rochester Red Wings

.327/.387/.584 -- Darnell McDonald, 2008, 101 AB

Congrats to McDonald for having one of the best stretches of his professional career, but he's been kicking around AAA so long that he was playing for the Red Wings when they were an Orioles affiliate 7 years ago. At age 30, his early season success is not an indication that he's turned any kind of corner and doesn't figure to help the Twins win any games. It's nice that he's been able to help Rochester out, though.

.290/.347/.452 -- Brian Buscher, 2008, 93 AB

That's a decent enough line for a first full season at AAA, but I'm not seeing much power. For a guy without much in the way of defensive skills, I'm pretty unimpressed.

.219/.350/.250 -- Alexi Casilla, 2008, 96 AB

That's kind of a funny trick, with an OBP 100 points higher than his SLG and all, but really, what reason do major league pitchers have to pitch carefully to him? I don't see how he's going to walk much in the majors unless he starts hitting for average again. Plus, he's been error-prone and the one set of minor league fielding stats I've looked at (SAFE runs--created for BP by Dan Fox, who just got hired by the Pirates' new front office) have him as below average overall, so I have serious doubts about how good his range is going to be. I won't blame Gardy if he uses Casilla almost exclusively as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.

.175/.228/.307 -- Garrett Jones, 2008, 114 AB

Just like Jones wasn't as good as his fluky singles rate last year made him seen, he's also not this bad. Still, I really don't want Jones anywhere near the major league roster.

.247/.296/.349 -- Jason Pridie, 2008, 146 AB

Pridie's a career .277/.324/.427 hitter in the minors, so I think he can do better than this, but probably not a whole lot better. He still looks like a guy with a 4th OF ceiling.

.304/.415/.348 -- Denard Span, 2008, 69 AB

I like to see the walks, but Span has to start at least hitting some doubles if he's going to keep up that walk rate in the majors. He's a career .283 hitter in the minors, so I kind of doubt his potential to hit for average in the majors. With no power and a mediocre average, his best case scenario is to become TynyOF, Jr. (Except that Delmon already beat him to the punch.)

.248/.276/.327 -- Jose Morales, 2008, 101 AB

Morales got some people excited with his .311 average last year in Rochester, but he's a career .277/.323/.367 with little chance of being anything more than an emergency catcher in the majors, unless his defensive skills are a lot better than the Twins are touting them to be. (And he only has 9 CS with 22 SB against so far this year.)

38.0 IP, 36 K, 15 BB, 5 HR -- Kevin Mulvey, 2008

His ERA is ~4.00 now, but I'm still pretty happy with how Mulvey has thrown so far. Lots of strikeouts and a fairly reasonable walk rate. Right now, his numbers are eerily similar to Bonser's first year (at age 23 no less) in Rochester:

154.0 IP, 8.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 3.99 ERA -- Boof Bonser, 2005, age 23
38.0 IP, 8.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 4.03 ERA -- Kevin Mulvey, 2008, age 23

Combined with Mulvey's fairly solid track record going into this year, he seems like he can be a decent pitcher for the Twins in the future.

34.0 IP, 21 K, 16 BB, 2 HR -- Philip Humber, 2008

Meh. Needs more control. Positive: hasn't gotten re-injured.

33.1 IP, 27 K, 17 BB, 2 HR -- Glen Perkins, 2008

Meh. Needs more control. Positive: hasn't gotten re-injured.

19.1 IP, 15 K, 14 BB, 1 HR -- Francisco Liriano, 2008

Meh. Needs more control. Positive: hasn't gotten re-injured.

New Britain Rock Cats

.322/.386/.461 -- Dustin Martin, 2008, 115 AB

That's an alright line if he's got good defensive skills, but still, not a whole lot of power to speak of. His career minor league line is .302/.376/.439. There's a certain school of thought that good hitters can develop into power hitters but that power hitters have trouble developing into good hitters. It seems possible that Martin could fall into former category, but the Twins don't exactly have a stellar track record of developing hitters with power. Overall, his future outlook seems to be that of a major league backup. (Which, honestly, isn't so much different than the sort of value you get on average with a late 1st round draft pick.)

.290/.338/.427 -- Trevor Plouffe, 2008, 124 AB

Not too awful for a SS if he's got the defensive abilities that the Twins think he has.

.388/.448/.682 -- Luke Hughes, 2008, 129 AB

Hughes is a career .274/.331/.408 hitter. His strikeouts and walks look about the same as last year. I'd call this a fluke performance, and if we're really optimistic about Hughes his combined line at AA last year and this year is .313/.382/.509. He looks like the next Matt Tolbert to me. I guess there are worse fates in prospectdom.

.248/.310/.376 -- Matt Moses, 2008, 133 AB

Not a prospect.

.192/.286/.218 -- Drew Butera, 2008, 78 AB

The only position where you can put up with offensive "production" like that is pitcher.

36.0 IP, 23 K, 6 BB, 4 HR -- Yohan Pino, 2008

Scouts thought that the strikeouts would vanish as he started facing better hitters, and so far they have. Maybe a bullpen option some day?

23.1 IP, 21 K, 12 BB, 0 HR, 0 GS, 0.23 ERA -- Zach Ward, 2008

The bullpen has treated Ward alright so far. Control has been a bit of a problem, but his career walk rate suggests that should improve some. Probably won't be a shut-down reliever, but might be a useful middle innings option some day.

44.1 IP, 25 K, 19 BB, 3 HR -- Ryan Mullins, 2008

Meh. It's pretty early, but his strikeout rate has dipped and his walk rate has increased. At 24, isn't exactly young for AA. He could still be useful in some role, but I don't see much to get excited about here.

Ft. Myers Miracle

.323/.403/.492 -- Daniel Valencia, 2008

At 23, he's kind of old for High A, so I'd like to see what he could do in AA, but Hughes is currently blocking him there. So far, so good with the bat, though.

.225/.293/.369 -- Wilson Ramos, 2008

Ramos had a solid year in Beloit last year, and got ranked highly on Baseball America's Twins prospect list last year, but he's struggled so far this year. Fortunately, the walks and most of the power are still there.

.219/.402/.411 -- Whitney Robbins, 2008

Robbins has had a lot of trouble hitting for average in high A--both this year and last--but this year his walk rate is crazy and a nearly .200 ISO in the FSL is actually pretty good. What's almost even more baffling is that he doesn't have a ton of strikeouts like you might expect with a low-average, high-power guy. He probably doesn't have much of a future, but might be worth keeping an eye on as a potential future DH.

39.0 IP, 37 K, 13 BB, 0 HR -- Jeff Manship, 2008

Control could maybe be better, but at 23 I'm not really sure what he's still doing in Florida.

36.1 IP, 36 K, 16 BB, 1 HR -- Tyler Robertson, 2008

Also, control could maybe be better, but he's looking good. At age 20, this seems like the right level for him so far.

33.1 IP, 21 K, 12 BB, 2 HR -- Deolis Guerra, 2008

He's young for the FSL, but I'm still not terribly impressed. Still a long ways off.

Beloit Snappers

.392/.436/.529 -- Ben Revere, 2008, 51 AB

Not much in the way of walks, but when we're dealing with small sample sizes and you're hitting .392, I can live with a certain amount of aggression. Revere's a career .339/.398/.475 hitter so far and has started his career a lot better than Denard Span did, at least.

.226/.312/.363 -- Joe Benson, 2008, 124 AB

Walk rate's okay, power's okay for a CF in the MWL. The low average is a concern, even adjusting for the rigors of the MWL. I guess I can see where people see the potential, but I can't say I'm much of a fan until he shows he can hit at least .270 or so.

.233/.377/.485 -- Chris Parmelee, 2008, 103 AB

Our very own Rob Deer? Or perhaps Jack Cust? He's been getting on base and hitting for power, but his batting average is a concern for now.

Overall

I don't see any sure-thing star regulars in the farm system at the moment, but there are a few players that should help the Twins fill out the odds and ends of their roster for cheap in the future.

I’ve Got Yer Piranhas Right Here!

ubelmann February 21, 2008, at 11:30 pm 16 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

I was looking through some of baseball-reference.com's minor league numbers today and noticed that Twins' farmhand Jonathan Goncalves hit .238/.351/.291 in CF for the DSL Twins. I thought, hmmm, that's odd, a Twins' farmhand who walks a lot. (Yes, this is a broad and possibly unfair statement, whatever.)

Then I looked at how the team as a whole hit: .215/.325/.289. Luis Castillo is odd amongst major league ballplayers for consistently having an OBP higher than his SLG, but here we have a whole team of guys with a higher OBP than their SLG!

Then I looked at how the league as a whole hit: .238/.338/.320. That's an entire league of piranha-ball!

Sufficiently intrigued by the Dominican Summer League, I headed south to the Venezuelan Summer League only to find that they also manage to turn the trick: .258/.352/.346.

I find this at least somewhat shocking in that the Midwest League (A) is notorious for being pitcher-friendly, but hitters there still managed a .255/.324/.372 line last year. The Appy League is where a lot of recently drafted hitters get sent to learn how to hit with lumber, and they managed a .257/.333/.379 line last year. Is the hitting talent really that far behind the pitching talent in the DSL and VSL? Are the hitters forced to hit with balsa-wood bats? I just don't know.

Anyway, if you find yourself saddened because the Twins have nominally gone away from their piranha attack by jettisoning Castillo, Tyner, and Bartlett while probably moving Punto to the bench, the DSL and VSL may be for you!

Denard Span Challenges All Comers

ubelmann February 4, 2008, at 11:34 pm 7 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

The Twins Territory blog has recently posted an interview with Denard Span where he is nothing if not chock full of confidence.

Denard Span felt he was ready to step up and play centerfield last season for the Twins. That viewpoint has not changed with the New Year, and Span says he is still ready to step in and fill the hole.

"I'm definitely ready; I thought I was ready after spring training last year. I felt like I had proven to others and especially to the Twins organization that I was ready for the next level and now one year later everyone is writing me off because of one bad half of baseball in Rochester."

Yes Denard, your fearsome career .348 OBP and .348 SLG indicate that you are absolutely ready to be a starter for a major league ballclub. Mr. Span's second half last year is becoming the thing of legend in some parts of the blogosphere, but I see a good August and not much else.

I mean, I'm happy that Denard is so confident in his ability to play baseball. If he thought he sucked, he'd probably be even worse than he is already. I just don't think he's ready for a role with the Twins just yet. (Of course, I don't really think that Pridie or Gomez are especially ready for a role with the Twins yet, either, but someone's gotta run around in CF.)

The PECOTA forecasts for 2008 were recently released, and there was some interesting stuff regarding center field. The first thing that stood out to me was the UPSIDE scores of our 3 4 hell, let's make it 5 would-be centerfielders of the future. (UPSIDE is one way to look at a player's long-term value by looking at whether or not comparable players became above-average major leaguers.)

58.4 -- Ben Revere (4th-highest UPSIDE of all 20-year-olds)
42.4 -- Joe Benson
27.1 -- Denard Span
6.1 -- Jason Pridie
5.7 -- Carlos Gomez

Having looked up and down UPSIDE scores for the last day or so, I think they're fairly imperfect for long-term prospect evaluation. For instance, Revere's 58.4 is pretty off-the-charts, because on average, the UPSIDE scores for 20-year-olds are lower than for, say, 23-year-olds, even though there's no real a priori reason to expect that more/better baseball babies were born in 1985 than 1988. But, keeping in mind that it's a rough guide, it gives us someplace to start the conversation.

Anyway, I was surprised to see Span so high up that list. I gave his numbers another look, and I'll give him this: while he hasn't been particularly young for his level, he hasn't stuck around any one level for a long time. When looking at some of the super young prospects like Delmon Young and Fernando Martinez this off-season--guys who were pushed pretty hard--I kind of noticed a trend where even if guys weren't very spectacular in the minors but were pushed along anyway, and didn't totally fall off, they managed to make the majors and not totally fail there. Perhaps we should call it the Rivas effect.

Span's been plugging his way through the minors, basically hitting .280/.350/.350 with some variation around that. Superficially, his .267/.323/.355 line last year looks worse than his career line, but add just a few singles to that line (as a career .283 hitter he could've been a bit unlucky) and you've got about a .283/.339/.371 line. A bit of a dent in the OBP, but a bit of a boost to his power.

Now, there was nothing special about Luis Rivas and I don't think there will be anything special about Denard Span, but if Rivas was the utility infielder, capable of playing multiple positions, I don't think we would've seen too many complaints about him. I tend to think that Span can eventually be a replacement level hitter in the majors. If he can play good defense, then for the minimum, that's a decent 4th outfielder. It's not what you really want out of a #1 draft pick, but that's what we've got on our hands. I don't like his chances of becoming a league average player as much as PECOTA, but I guess that possibility lingers.

Bonus: Denard Span's #1 PECOTA comparable hit .289/.337/.389 in his rookie season at the age of 22 in 1982. Name that player.

Eye on the Future: Trevor Plouffe

ubelmann July 3, 2007, at 8:00 am 17 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

It's easy to get things wrong when evaluating prospects with statistics. Still, when viewed in context, minor league statistics can be of some use when looking at prospects. With that caveat, I want to take a look at Trevor Plouffe, the Twins' #1 selection from the 2004 draft.

Plouffe was a toolsy high school shortstop, and he signed the day after his 18th birthday. Despite some error totals that caused alarm in some corners (35 E over 125 games in Beloit), the Twins have kept him at SS. It might be that they simply have no better options, but I've heard reports here and there that Plouffe is pretty solid defensively, with plus range. (The plus range, and poor infield conditions in the midwest league, could be one reason for that gaudy error total in 2005.)

Now, on offense, Plouffe has done this for his career:

.283/.340/.380, 19 BB, 34 SO -- Rk, 2004, age 18
.223/.300/.345, 50 BB, 78 SO -- A, 2005, age 19
.246/.333/.347, 58 BB, 93 SO -- A+, 2006, age 20
.286/.335/.441, 22 BB, 49 SO -- AA, 2007, age 21

Nothing too spectacular, but he's had a better extra base hit to at-bat ratio (XBH/AB) every year of his career. When you start out with a sub-.100 ISO, it's nice to see improvement in that area. The Midwest league (Twins' A ball affiliate) is notoriously hard on teenage hitters, so that has to be taken into account somewhat when looking at Plouffe's numbers.

Looking at Plouffe's PECOTA comparables list, I saw Jhonny Peralta listed as a comparable. Here's what Peralta did through AA:

.303/.401/.514, 33 BB, 49 SO -- Rk, 1999, age 17 (Dominican rookie league)
.241/.352/.309, 59 BB, 102 SO -- A, 2000, age 18
.240/.328/.351, 58 BB, 148 SO -- A+, 2001, age 19
.281/.343/.457, 45 BB, 97 SO -- AA, 2002, age 20

Don't look at these numbers as absolutes, since I'm sure there are park/league differences that need to be adjusted for, but we can get an idea of the general trends here. Also, there's a one-year age difference between Plouffe and Peralta when they hit each level, but that's probably not all that important. We see some trends in common here--a good number of walks for each, lots of strikeouts, and gradually increasing power levels. I'm not sure how big Peralta was when he was younger, but right now, as a 25-year old, he's 195 lbs. whereas Plouffe is 175 lbs., and both stand 6'1".

Peralta's major league career has been a crazy up-and-down ride, but overall he's had a good bat. PECOTA thought he would hit .270/.345/.457 this year, and he's hit .281/.355/.469 so far this season--not a bad prediction coming off of his miserable .257/.323/.385 campaign last year, eh?

Now, I don't think it's likely that Plouffe will turn out to be equivalent to Peralta at the plate, but it's a possibility. Peralta has about a .280 EQA this season. If Plouffe could even hit for a .260 EQA during his prime, though, he'd be an asset to the team as a cheap SS with good range. The two big things his development seems to depend on are his power and his glove, so I'll be keeping an eye on that.