I noticed something when reading through some of the 2,500+ comments on tonight's Mariners-Rangers game thread over at Lookout Landing. Some Mariners fans there expected Pat Neshek to intentionally walk Vlad in the 8th inning. That thought never actually crossed my mind because I have that much confidence in Neshek (and generally dislike [...]

Opening day. It's all good.
"It was a warm day in August when history was made,
And the fans in the boxes were looking for shade.
The bases were loaded, it was the last inning.
From the sound of the crowd, you knew we weren't winning.
When out of the dugout came No. 3,
The last hope for the Twins it [...]

A fantastic song that should be played every Opening Day. And it's particularly relevant to the 2008 Twins.

As the offseason mercifully draws to a close, I want to take a second to reflect on the offseason.
What I will remember about this offseason, more than anything else, is just how broken major league baseball's revenue distribution is. Once in a blue moon, you'll see a straight up baseball trade where teams [...]

People get ready! One more day.
Ode to Li'l Nicky In Spring
Out of the mud two strangers came
And caught me splitting wood in the yard,
And one of them put me off my aim
By hailing cheerily "Hit them hard!"
I knew pretty well why he had dropped behind
And let the other go on a way.
I knew pretty [...]

Something I've noticed over spring training: when Carlos Gomez gets a hit, it tends to go for extra bases. Let's take a look at extra base hits per hit for Twins hitters with at least 10 hits in spring training:

Everyone repeat after me: "small sample size, regress to the mean, small sample size, regress [...]

I really wish I had planned ahead for this better, but it's tough to watch a game live at 3am local time. Anyway, it's somewhat less unreasonably early for most of SBG Nation, so I figured I'd throw a little something something together for the occasion.
Daisuke Matsuzka vs. Joe Blanton
There was a lot of [...]

Roughly speaking, here's how things seem to stand after the most recent cuts.
Infield:
Catcher:
Mauer
Redmond
1B:
Morneau
Lamb Cuddyer
2B:
Harris/Punto
Punto/Harris
Tolbert
SS:
Everett
Punto
Tolbert
Harris
3B:
Lamb
Tolbert
Punto
Harris
Notes:
Looking at Tolbert's minor league splits, he seems to have platoon splits like you would expect a naturally left-handed batter to have, despite being a switch-hitter. So he doesn't make a great platoon partner for Lamb, though he would make a [...]

Link. Club option for 2012. The link provides no further details, but I've heard rumors about $11 million or so a year.
Ubes, feel free to add to this post or write your own.
<ubelmann>I'm a stats guy, so I'm supposed to hate this move. Closers can be created, don't overpay for the mystique, [...]

Glen Perkins was optioned to AAA today, which is mildly surprising, but brings us closer to figuring out what the pitching staff is going to look like.
Rotation:
1. Livan Hernandez
2. Boof Bonser
3. Scott Baker?
4. Francisco Liriano?
5. Kevin Slowey
6. Phillip Humber
7. Nick Blackburn
Baker gets the question mark because of his lat/flu issues, but he ought to be [...]

I've got a season preview-ish piece up at The Hardball Times. Doom and gloom abound.
Thanks to Will Young for recommending me for this gig. With so many high quality Twins bloggers out there, I was happy to be selected. I probably owe it to The Hardball Times for as much as I [...]

Spring Training Strikeout leaders, Twins:
18 -- Kevin Slowey
12 -- Joe "Contract Push" Nathan
8 -- The Neshek Button
8 -- Brian Bass
7 -- Phillip Humber
7 -- Dennys Reyes
The Buffet Table (# of innings eaten):
15.2 -- Kevin Slowey
13.0 -- Livan Hernandez
12.0 -- Phillip Humber
11.0 -- Glen Perkins
10.1 -- Brian Bass
Before spring training even started, Kevin Slowey was poised [...]

Even I'm willing to concede that when the Twins score more runs than their opponent that they've won the game.

From LEN3 today:
The Twins have been very pleased with the catch-and-throw ability of Drew Butera, who was part of the Luis Castillo trade.
Butera has no shot of making the club (which is why I’m writing this as a minor league note) but could be an emergency option during the season. He finished last season at [...]

Twins strikeout leaders, spring 2008:
13 -- Kevin Slowey
8 -- Pat Neshek
7 -- Joe Nathan
6 -- Brian Bass
6 -- Glen Perkins
6 -- Dennys Reyes
Catching controversy update:
.455/.600/1.000 -- Eli Whiteside
.368/.480/.684 -- Joe Mauer
First base controversy update:
.455/.500/.818 -- Randy Ruiz
.212/.325/.333 -- Justin Morneau

It looks like John Lackey won't be pitching on opening day. Kelvim Escobar hasn't begun throwing yet, either, so he won't be able to make the opening day start, either. So it looks like the Angels will probably be throwing Weaver, Garland, Saunders, and Impostor Santana at the Twins in the first series.
Who [...]

...in various cities/venues. (Inspired by this article.) As someone who enjoys baseball and classical music, but also enjoys the benefits of a student budget, I spend an inordinate amount of time trying to get the best tickets for what I'm willing to pay. Usually that means something that's not the cheapest ticket, [...]

Bummer.  Chris Basak strikes out to end the 3-1 Spring Training loss to the Orioles...

In the offseason, there were a few free-agent signings, and minor trades.
Don't know how former Royal Brian Bass came to the team, but he's here now, as a NRIT. Former Astros Adam Everett and Mike Lamb were signed in succession.

(Bass '08, '06; Everett '08, '07-PS; Lamb '08)
Also, the team got Livan Hernandez, Craig Monroe, [...]

Hidden beneath a frivolous story about Santana borrowing/stealing bats from Joe Mauer is this thought from our fearless leader:
Knuckler perhaps? He may be gone, but R.A. Dickey hasn't been forgotten. Gardenhire said the 33-year-old knuckleballer, lost to Seattle in the Rule 5 draft last December, remains on his mind as a possibility for the Twins' [...]

AMR looks at the new faces on the 2008 Twins.

In the grand scheme of things, this won't really make the Twins any worse this season. But it won't make them better, and it kind of pisses me off.
(Also, there's a whole rant here about how Livan has been just as bad as Slowey this spring (if not worse), but he's in line for [...]

As I have commented, my professional education obligations prevent me from doing as much on the MPs as I did last year, but I'll be looking at this year's mugshots, so I might as well post them.
Here are the players that aren't with the team this year (and are with another team). [...]

Starting 2B/SS combinations used so far this spring (including the rained out game):
5 -- Punto/Everett
3 -- Harris/Casilla
2 -- Harris/Tolbert
1 -- Casilla/Harris
1 -- Casilla/Everett
1 -- Harris/Basak
0 -- Harris/Everett
Consider yourself warned.

Twins leaders in strikeouts, spring 2008:
8 - Kevin "No Out Pitch" Slowey
6 - Brian Bass
5 - Philip Humber
4 - Baker, Neshek, Reyes, Perkins
Note: Statisics current as of the 6th inning of today's game. In the tradition of spring training statistics, I have hand-picked this statistic to support my point regardless of the biases that [...]

Red Sox's Latest MVP: EMC's Traveling Data Center
When the Boston Red Sox travel to Japan later this month to play Japanese teams in Tokyo, the team will carry the usual assortment of players' favorite bats and uniforms. Also making the trip will be the team's modern coveted talisman -- its EMC traveling data center.
"Information [...]

...but until that day, I feel compelled to point this out:

Apparently the force is strong with this one.

Twins leaders in at-bats:
19 - Justin Morneau
19 - Jason Pridie
18 - Carlos Gomez
18 - Michael Cuddyer
Twins leaders in innings pitched:
6.0 - Glen Perkins
5.0 - Casey Daigle
5.0 - Livan Hernandez
1 - Number of Twins who played a full game today
Note: On the 6th of July last year, Jason Bartlett got 12 at-bats and Matt Garza threw [...]

Apparently overreaction is not limited to members of the BBWAA.

But it could have been written by a dozen or more BBWAA members.

...but seriously? Buscher or Jones over Kubel? That would be nearly as stupid as letting David Ortiz leave over a few hundred thousand dollars.

I was looking at the lineups for the game today (on ESPN), and man are they depressing. Considering how good they are right now:
Posada < Mauer (though Posada is still damned good)
Giambi < Morneau (on defense mainly, as PECOTA gives Giambi the edge in EQA)
Cano >> Harris
Jeter >>> Tolbert
Betemit > Buscher
Damon >> Jones
Abreu > [...]

I read Reusse this morning talking about Justin Morneau's weightlifting routine. Apparently, he got a tip from Torii Hunter at some point after the start of last season -- keep lifting hard through spring training and don't go into maintenance until the season starts. I read that and wondered, "You mean to tell [...]

Jim Souhan is reporting that Ron Gardenhire doesn't want expectations to slip this season:
"I didn't like [finishing below .500]," Gardenhire said. "It bugged me. A lot. In all honesty, I probably put too much stock in that, if putting too much stock in winning is possible.
"I remember telling [coach] Jerry White when we first got [...]

Mmmm...baseball.
- Memo to the Red Sox: your uniforms do not match your caps or your helmets. You're spending approximately eleventy billion dollars in payroll this year, maybe splurge a bit and buy uniforms that look professional.
- I was impressed by Gomez' throw in the 5th inning. He got a little too excited in [...]

First pitch of the year, folks -- hope springs eternal!

My organization here is a bit funny. I wanted to start by explaining how I get Harris as 20 runs better than Punto on offense over 150 games, and how I get Punto as 20 runs better than Harris on defense over 150 games, but it turned out to be perhaps the most unreadable [...]

It's still too early to do this, because we still have a month for players to get injured, but I'm impatient.
Position Players
C - Mauer
1B - Morneau
Neither of those positions are in question provided that those guys stay healthy.
2B - Harris/Punto
These two guys are complementary players and I really hope that Gardy is willing to mix [...]

A brief summary of recent events:
1) Carl Crawford tells St. Petersburg Times reporters that he's glad Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes are gone because they caused distractions and made it difficult for him to focus on playing baseball:
"I just feel like it's going to be a little more peaceful this year," Crawford said. "I [...]

I was looking through some of baseball-reference.com's minor league numbers today and noticed that Twins' farmhand Jonathan Goncalves hit .238/.351/.291 in CF for the DSL Twins. I thought, hmmm, that's odd, a Twins' farmhand who walks a lot. (Yes, this is a broad and possibly unfair statement, whatever.)
Then I looked at how the [...]

Baseball Prospectus came out this weekend with depth charts of all 30 MLB teams, tied together with Nate Silver's PECOTA forecasts, to give projected standings for 2008 (subscription required.) And for the Twins, it's ugly. Not "Britney Spears really let herself go" ugly, but more like "Al Roker really let himself go" ugly. [...]

Not unexpectedly, the Twins decided to get a veteran hurler to ingest innings.
Disturbing trend #1:
4.18 xFIP -- 2004
4.56 xFIP -- 2005
5.38 xFIP -- 2006
5.62 xFIP -- 2007
Which is mainly driven by disturbing trend #2:
6.8 K/G -- 2004
5.3 K/G -- 2005
5.2 K/G -- 2006
3.8 K/G -- 2007
He used to be a groundball pitcher, but his GB% [...]

The Twins Territory blog has recently posted an interview with Denard Span where he is nothing if not chock full of confidence.
Denard Span felt he was ready to step up and play centerfield last season for the Twins. That viewpoint has not changed with the New Year, and Span says he is still ready [...]

My intent here is not to be ultra-precise (how could you be when forecasting six years into the future?) but to get a rough estimate on where this trade leaves the Twins as compared to the option of keeping Santana on what would amount to a 5-year/$107M extension, for a 6-year/$120M contract. While I [...]

I'm holding off on an overall analysis of the Santana trade until I find out more about the players involved and until Johan Santana actually puts on a Mets cap. But that means I'm busy finding out more about the players involved.
Speed
Carlos Gomez is the lone position player that the Twins are receiving in [...]

In this life, one thing counts / In the bank, large amounts
It looks like Santana's gone. That sucks, huh?
Well, the last two steps between Santana and the Big Apple are a physical, which won't be an issue, and the contract negotiation window. I hope Santana gets every last penny possible.
The Mets are getting [...]

The Strib is reporting that someone else says that the Twins have traded Johan Santana to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.
Rotoworld says:
It's a pretty disappointing day for Twins fans.
Both packages being discussed by the Red Sox and Yankees during the winter meetings seemed more attractive [...]

From "Impacto Deportivo:
No fears; Francisco Liriano used his entire repertoire without any hassle
The Dominican pitcher Francisco Liriano knows how important it is for the Minnesota Twins in 2008.
That is why we work hard to achieve a full recovery.
According to reports on Sunday the website of Minnesota, Liriano has been throwing without restrictions.
He has thrown bullpen, [...]

Go here the first installment in this series, and a description of my methodology. Previous seasons:
2005
2006
And now on to the 2007 ratings:

#
NAME
TEAM
LG
YEAR
VORP
UZR
TOTAL

1
Albert Pujols
SLN
NL
2007
72.1
9.3
81

2
Carlos Pena
TBA
AL
2007
68.5
-2.7
66

3
Prince Fielder
MIL
NL
2007
69.1
-9.3
60

4
Todd Helton
COL
NL
2007
51.9
2.7
55

5
Ryan Howard
PHI
NL
2007
53.6
-1.3
52

6
Derrek Lee
CHN
NL
2007
48.6
0.7
49

7
Adrian Gonzalez
SDN
NL
2007
38.4
5.3
44

8
Lance Berkman
HOU
NL
2007
42.1
-4.7
37

9
Dmitri Young
WAS
NL
2007
35.6
-4.7
31

10
James Loney
LAN
NL
2007
30.7
0.0
31

11
Scott Hatteberg
CIN
NL
2007
25.1
4.7
30

12
Casey Kotchman
ANA
AL
2007
26.2
3.3
30

13
Matt Stairs
TOR
AL
2007
29.5
-1.3
28

14
Justin Morneau
MIN
AL
2007
28.8
-0.7
28

15
Kevin Youkilis
BOS
AL
2007
31.1
-4.0
27

16
Ryan Garko
CLE
AL
2007
27.8
-4.0
24

17
Adam LaRoche
PIT
NL
2007
19.6
2.0
22

18
Paul Konerko
CHA
AL
2007
25.4
-4.0
21

19
Conor Jackson
ARI
NL
2007
20.5
0.0
21

20
Carlos Delgado
NYN
NL
2007
15.5
4.0
20

21
Kevin Millar
BAL
AL
2007
14.4
1.3
16

22
Sean Casey
DET
AL
2007
9.6
2.0
12

23
Mike Jacobs
FLO
NL
2007
10.5
-2.7
8

24
Ryan Klesko
SFN
NL
2007
5.5
2.0
8

25
Brad Wilkerson
TEX
AL
2007
6.2
0.7
7

26
Dan Johnson
OAK
AL
2007
8
-1.3
7

27
Nomar Garciaparra
LAN
NL
2007
0.8
2.7
4

28
Rich Aurilia
SFN
NL
2007
-4.7
4.0
-1

29
Lyle Overbay
TOR
AL
2007
-3.6
2.0
-2

30
Richie Sexson
SEA
AL
2007
-7.1
-5.3
-12

Colors! I [...]