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Warning: Probable Beatdown Ahead! Cavs @ Wolves, 2009-10 Game 2

So, the Cavaliers got their asses handed to them at home to open the season by the Celtics. No big deal, right? It's not like the Cavs were 39-1 at home until a meaningless loss to Philly in which Bron-Bron didn't play to end the season last year. And losing a second game to Toronto ain't no big deal. After all, Cleveland has their stars locked up for a long time and they absolutely will be playing for a title this year and for the foreseeable future.

Gulp.

Okay, Cavs GM Danny Ferry might think that all of his shirts are about 2 neck sizes too small these days, but I'm not ready to jump off the Cleveland wagon. This is a good team. They have the best player in the world and what remains of the best big man of this generation. Sometimes teams get off to slow starts. Did you remember that the Dallas Mavericks started 0-4 in 2006-07? They were able to right the ship a little, finishing 67-15, the best record in the NBA. Of course, they lost to Don Nelson's GSW club in the first round of the playoffs, but let's not let that get in the way of a larger point. This Cleveland club is adjusting to the new dynamic of The Big Frozen Popsicle and I think they'll be just fine. And I think that schedule has just what the doctor ordered tonight.

The Wolves won a thriller in the opener and I have to admit that I got a little giddy. It was fun, dammit, to watch Jonny Flynn take over down the stretch and will this club to victory. There have been many nights when a game like that has even the die hardingest Wolves fan wondering why? why do I follow this club. The Wolves were atrocious against a bad club for most of the game. But, they mounted a comeback and showed that maybe, just maybe, there are a couple of building blocks here.

But. But, the Wolves shot terribly and they got killed on the boards for most of the night. Their interior defense was as soft as a fresh marshmallow. I shudder to think what might happen if Brook Lopez can look like Tim Funcan Duncan against this club. Will we see Shaq just crush the warm bodies that are matched up against him? Will he look like the dude who powered the Lakes to 3 titles? I think there's a good chance.

Plus, I think it's clear that while BAJ's knee may be healed, he's not ready to play at this level. His explosion had all the power of a lady finger against the Nets and he was unable to do anything at all offensively or on the boards for that matter (he did have that hee-yuge block at the end of the game, though!). I expect Shaq to hang about 20 on the Wolves tonight. And Big Z will do whatever he wants, too. And hey, maybe we'll see them both out there simultaneously eating the cake that is our interior defense.

And there's LeBron. I don't expect that Mr. Brewer will be able to handle this monster. Nor will anyone else.

The Wolves aren't really ready for this. Their best player is hurt, their best scorer is lacking the physical gifts that make him so special, the club is relying on a couple of rookies for significant contributions. And Brian Cardinal is DEFINITELY in the rotation. Oy. expect a full beatdown tonight. LeBron & Co. are much better than the Wolves and they are like a wounded bear, all pissed off. Too bad there isn't a World Series game to distract us tonight.

Timberwolves Opening Night

It's Opening Night #21 for the Timberwolves. Expectations in terms of wins and losses are low, but it's not like this team has nothing to look forward to.

How good is Greg Oden? A bS special report

This TrueHoop item reminded me of an on-going question I have: how good is Greg Oden?
Here's what Henry had to say:

He's brand new to this -- fresh off a major injury, and new to the NBA. He's on a path to really dominate. But even as he does breathtaking things, the arrival is yet to come. At the moment it's still more about working out the kinks than producing. Once again last night, Oden was the worst player on the floor, in terms of plus/minus, while his replacement, Joel Przybilla, was the best. An interesting point is that with tiny sample sizes (Oden has only played 176 minutes), Oden has a fantastic PER -- way better than Przybilla -- yet the Blazers are better in general when he's on the bench.

I've only seen one Blazers' game this year -- against the Kings last week, when Portland blew Sac. out in the second half. But my take was that Przybilla was the significantly better player at this point.

Oden has almost no offensive game. He's very mechanical and his shooting technique in the post is downright ugly. Dood, you have to be able to do something besides dunk! This is the NBA and you are not Shaq. And even he developed game to go with his Most Dominating Ever status.

Przybilla, on the other hand, was more active on the boards, decent-to-good defensively (although Brad Miller doesn't offer much of a test down low) and did not instill shivers of fear from fans seated behind the backboard every time he shot the ball (which was rarely).

Portland has the makings of a good team. The Przybilla/Oden tag-team offers 12 fouls to get around 20-20 every night. LaMarcus Aldridge, when he is awake, is capable of taking games over. Brandon Roy looks like the kind of player who would have complemented Kevin Garnett very nicely; too bad the Wolves couldn't have drafted him. Rudy Fernandez can really, really shoot the ball. Eventually he will take over at the 3, which is the weakest link on this team. Steve Blake is surprisingly competent and Sergio Rodriguez is a very good backup PG. Plus they have Travis Outlaw and Channing Frye to give good energy off the bench.

Bottom line: Greg Oden is no superstar. I don't know whether he ever will be. If he's smart and a hard worker, he will develop a decent short- and mid-range game and make himself into a very good two-way player. But for now, he looks like a rookie.

a quick word about the Kings. They suck.
Oh, okay. A little more. Beno Udrih is a nice backup PG. Brad Miller is a poor man's Bill Laimbeer. Mikki Moore? One of the best basketball players ever to come out of the University of Nebraska (not too far behind Eric Piatkowski). John Salmons is a great third option.

Kevin Martin is a stud; Spencer Hawes is a player; Jason Thompson could make all-rookie; and Donte Greene has a chance to be pretty good. So there is light at the end of the tunnel. But this year is gonna be very ugly.

Nuggets Give Camby Away for Nothing

The Denver Nuggets admitted that they can't win a championship with their Iverson-Anthony core and decided to cut costs, trading Marcus Camby to the Clippers for the right to exchange 2nd round picks in 2010. Oy. The Nuggets get a $10.1 million trade exception. You'll note that the Clippers are under the cap, so no salary matching was necessary.

I like Camby, he's a brilliant interior defender and an elite shot blocker. But, he's 35 and injury prone. The Clips have him under contract for two years, so they'll probably be players in 2010. As for Denver, I wouldn't be surprised if Iverson or Anthony are sent packing.

The Mayo Trade

I haven't read too many people's takes on the Wolves trade from late last night, so it's hard for me to gauge exactly what people are thinking about this right now. I know many people are going to have an overtly negative reaction to the trade. McHale has a reputation for making bad draft day deals and the memory of the Foye/Roy trade is still fresh in most people's minds. When I first heard about the trade, I wasn't sure what to think. I knew McHale wanted Love, so I wasn't that surprised. At the same time, it seems like he could have just done the safe thing and kept the third best player in the draft. It seems like he just likes making things harder than they need to be.


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2008 NBA Draft

A thread to talk about tonight's draft, in case you are interested. I'd like to see the Wolves get Beasley, I suppose, but they cannot pick 3rd and not take one of Rose, Beasley and Mayo. I'd like to see them, if they are going to trade down, package in Marko Jaric for a shorter contract, plus a draft pick.

Draft Bust Preview

In honor of the Wolves' impending draft mistake, let's review Reusse's recent analysis of the franchise's woeful draft performance over the years:



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Ah, What the Hell

KG -- World Champion!

Celtics absolutely embarrassing the Lakers!

Eat your heart out, Reusse!

Always our guy.

Here's your new buddy, KG.

Eat your heart out, Kobe.

Good Morning!

Celtics win in Detroit.

2008 NBA Playoffs Western Conference, First Round

As brutal as the NBA season was for Minnesota Timberwolves fans, there's no denying that the 2007-08 regular season was one for the ages. The West had, count 'em eight 50-win teams this year a record for one conference. The East isn't quite as deep (actually not by a long shot), but they have a certain team, with a certain player that yours truly will be watching closely.

I've never put together a playoff preview before at this site for the NBA, but I'm pretty excited about the playoffs. I asked GreekHouse to join in and despite it being test time, he's pitched in. What follows are our thoughts and predictions on the first round of what promises to be a brilliant Western Conference playoff season. So, click through and take a look


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Wolves Season Over

carcass.jpg

Wolves end up 22-60. Boy, was that fun.

2007-08 Wolves 3/4 Pole

Well, in my old age, I’ve forgotten to post a conversation that GH and I had about the Wolves at about the 60 game mark or 3/4 the way through the season. I don’t know how well it’s worn over the last week or so, given the foot in mouth statements by Glen Taylor, but here goes:


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T-Wolves Half Pole

Better late than never, right? GreekHouse and I had a conversation about the Wolves via e-mail regarding the Wolves first half of the season. Then, we scrapped it when they started to play better and started over. By the time we got this done, they stopped playing better. Heh. Anyway, here’s a little take on the local five.


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Something to Chew On

I was reading Brit Robson's back columns on the Wolves tonight and I came across this from the Boston game last week.

Most Wolves fans are intimately familiar with the debate, which prompts eye-opening claims on both sides. Detractors like to say that Garnett is merely a great sidekick, that he needs a more dominant personality on the team in order to be truly effective, a Pippen to someone else's Jordan. Strib writer Jim Souhan and KFAN jock Dan Barreiro have both voiced this view, with Souhan recently dubbing Garnett the "world's greatest complementary player." By contrast, Celtics' color commentator Cedric Cornbread Maxwell was the latest to big-up Garnett by naming him the second best player in Celtics history, behind only Bill Russell and ahead of Larry Bird, among others. Maxwell didn't flinch from the predictable outcry, saying that KG's huge edge on defense tipped the scales in his favor.

Robson continues:

As one who is closer to Maxwell's view than Barreiro's and Souhan's--I have actually taken the Garnett position in KG vs. Bird debates, although I go back and forth on who I think is a better player--it was a sincere pleasure watching the greatest Timberwolf there likely will ever be in my lifetime going against the Timberwolves when it counts (meaning a non-exhibition game) for the first time in his career last night. And it was a curiously nostalgic feeling to be marveling in his myriad gifts on the court and then being compelled to remember again his "flaw of unselfishness" that is necessarily part and parcel of his many virtues.

[snip]

The faithful in Boston are generally smart hoops observers, and probably appreciated how Garnett's defense quieted Gomes in the first half (5 points and 2 rebouns for someone averaging 16 and 7 for the past few weeks) and helped quiet Jefferson in the second (6 points and 3 rebounds for the 20-12 Big Al; by contrast, Craig Smith had 4 points and a team-high 10 rebounds playing 13:22 of his 14:20 with KG on the bench). Even so, if you're a diehard Celtic fan, you're screaming for KG to get the ball and then do something with it in the direction of the hoop. You're like Doc Rivers, who went bananas on Tony Allen after Allen chose to drive the lane and *then* dish to KG, resulting in a three-second call (the first of Garnett's two turnovers) rather than immediately feeding an open KG on the low block. Allen, a third year pro currently averaging 6.0 ppg., had as many shots in the 4th quarter as Garnett took the entire game. The problem is that Doc had to speak for KG, who needed to pull a Keyshawn Johnson--as in "somebody get me the damn ball!"--long before then.

But then it's crunchtime and many of the attributes that make Garnett a player for the ages come to the fore. After staggering to the sidelines with an "abdominal strain" (replays seemed to indicate that Brewer inadvertantly punched him in the nuts trying to strip him on a drive to the hoop, creating a pain intense enough for Garnett to immediately drop the basketball, which was his second turnover), Garnett went to the dressing room for four minutes of play in the latter stages of the fourth quarter. His trainer advised him not to play again that night. But Garnett talked his way back into the lineup. Amazing ability to surmount all manner of injuries? Check. Which segues into the Celts' last basket: KG sets the pick that frees Ray Allen for an open layup which Allen promptly blows, but the Wolves are so concerned with Allen-Pierce-KG that Perkins has an easy weakside putback. Faithfully doing the little things that don't show up on the box score but help the team? Check. Which segues into the final play of the game. KG, the seven-footer, ranges out to the perimeter beyond the three point arc and uses what Flip Saunders calls his Inspector Gadget arms to steal the ball from Sebastian Telfair, diving on the floor with Telfair to push the ball ahead toward the other end of the court as the buzzer sounds, sealing Boston's one-point win. Freakish athletic versatility and extra hustle in service of defense? Check.

Which segues into something that is foreign territory for Wolves fans, even when KG was here. Team has a serious chance of contending for the NBA championship? Check.

Better than Bird. Second to Russell (who I think is KG's best historical comparable). Even if he doesn't take enough shots in the fourth quarter. And that's coming from Bird's waterboy.

There’s Going to be a Payoff

On Wednesday night, T-Wolves sideline reporter play-by-play guy Tom Hanneman announced that there would be a payoff for the misery that is the 2007-08 season. Jim Pete chimed in by saying that the product we've been watching is what starting over looks like. Jim Pete's comment, unfortunately, is closer to the truth.

Prior to the Kevin Garnett trade, the Wolves had one really good asset. And that asset was an elite player at the tail end of his prime. The Wolves should not have to "start over" just because he got traded. By that I mean, they should not have been completely devoid of any talent. Yet, here we sit, 31 games into the season, with four wins. I don't want to hear about a couple of close losses. This team is what their record says they are -- the worst team in the league.

If this were the NFL, the Wolves would get the number one pick, they'd cut some dead weight loose, and they'd plug in a few moderately priced free agents and they could be mediocre next season. This isn't the NFL -- no major team sport relies more heavily on its best one or two players more than the NBA. The Wolves could throw out a team of complete losers with KG and he'd deliver 30 wins. He's that damned good. Just look at the last two seasons. The supporting cast for the Big Ticket was the biggest collection of misfit malcontents in the league. Still, the Wolves got to 30 wins and that was with obvious tank jobs each year where KG sat out the last six games with a stress reaction or some other fake injury.

Now, though, this team looks like about a 15 win team and that's with a guy in Al Jefferson who's averaging 20 and 12 -- better numbers than our old hero KG is getting this year. I don't want you to be confused by one or two commenters here at the site -- there's more to basketball than scoring. KG provided a complete game every time out -- twenty some points, a dozen rebounds, a handful of assists, terrific position and help defense and a moderate number of shot blocks and steals. BigAlJefferson provides scoring some rebounds, and little else. He's not the passer, the defender, the facilitator that KG is -- and it shows in the win/loss results. That's not to denigrate BAJ, he's a nice player and a player that can play on a good team. He's just not brilliant like our one-in-a-lifetime guy KG was/is.

No, the Wolves are starting over and they don't look all that much different in total from the 1991-92 team that won 15 games. They have no franchise player, they have a coach in over his head, and they have very little other than hope that things will get better. The 91-92 Wolves were six games worse than the Orlando Magic and sixteen games worse than the Charlotte Hornets (tied for the seventh worst record). It didn't matter, though, those two teams ended up one/two, respectively, in the lottery. The Magic selected Shaquille O'Neal, the most dominant center of his time and maybe ever. The Hornets selected Alonzo Mourning, a surefire Hall of Famer. The Wolves selected third and took the two-time College Player of the Year, Christian Laettner. Laettner seemed, at the time, to be a pretty good pick. Sure, Shaq and 'Zo were likely better, but man, Laettner was going to be an All-Star. He even got selected as a token college player for the 1992 Dream Team. Playing with MJ, Magic, Bird, Barkley et al. would only help.

Funny thing. Mr. Laettner was a decent pro, but nothing more. And it turns out that he had a terrible attitude. He was a cancer with not nearly the game that everyone thought. The Wolves weren't really mistaken in picking Laettner -- he probably was the third best player in that draft (well, Latrell Sprewell was selected 24th, but I would imagine he would have been, um, a handful for that Wolves team). That was just an incredibly weak draft after the first two players. The Wolves had the worst record in the league -- they also had shitty luck. In other words, THERE WAS NO PAYOFF.

The next season, the Wolves won a whopping 19 games (good for second worst -- the Mavericks won just 11 times, yikes!). Of course, THERE WAS NO PAYOFF then, either. The Wolves ended up picking fifth -- and they selected J.R. Rider. Rider was a very talented player, but he had such a bad attitude that he made Laettner look like an altar boy. Rider didn't play hard and he was always in trouble. Once again, though, it's hard to fault the Wolves for that pick. The pickings were slim after that (maybe Sam Cassell, who was taken 24th -- notice a pattern here?). The Wolves were relying on luck. Perhaps they should have relied on the kindness of strangers.

With Laettner and Rider, easily two of the most disagreeable characters ever to don a professional sports jersey in the state of Minnesota, the 93-94 Wolves won 20 whole games, good for second worst in the league (Dallas, 13 wins). Of course, the Wolves moved down and picked fourth. They selected Donyell Marshall, who was atrocious as a Wolf (and who had signed a $44 million contract). Luckily, the Wolves were able to move his sorry ass about halfway through a ridiculously bad first season. I happened to see the last game of the 'Yell Era in person. A friend and I scalped some good seats about 15 rows up behind the Wolves bench for a fraction of their face value. Indiana blew the Wolves right off the court and Marshall was playing defense like a matador. I stood up after a particularly egregious "effort" by the first round pick and heckled him pretty mercilessly. The final score was 110-78 and it wasn't that close. After the game he was moved to Golden State for Tom Gugliotta. Gugliotta was a nice complementary player, but the contrast between Marshall and Gugs was so large that it felt like a damn had broken. Still, the Wolves ended up with just 21 wins and were just 9-23 after the Marshall trade. After three years of stinking up the league horribly, the Wolves had two malcontents and one pretty decent complementary player to show for it. THERE REALLY WASN'T MUCH OF A PAYOFF.

Of course, the Wolves, with the second worst record in the league ended up picking fifth, because they could not rely upon luck. Or rather, they could not rely upon the luck of the draft. Because in the fourth year of sucking hard (after the first two years of winning more games than they should under Bill Musselman), they got the biggest break in the history of the franchise. THERE WAS A PAYOFF. KG, the first high schooler to enter the draft in a generation was considered a big risk. And the Wolves, who literally HAD NOTHING TO LOSE, took the chance. It paid off in spades. Let's be clear though. KG fell to the Wolves because people were skittish about taking a high schooler. The Wolves had gotten screwed again by the lottery. It just so happened, though, that the best player in the draft landed in their lap. (As an aside, no fewer than seven players from that draft played for the Wolves: Joe Smith, KG, Gary Trent, Cherokee Parks, Theo Ratliff, Jerome Allen, and Fred Hoiberg.) After six years, and four years after the decision to try for a top pick did anything pay off.

In the meantime, the Wolves pretty much destroyed their fanbase except for the half dozen of us still crazy enough to follow them. They announced that the team would be sold to boxing promoter Bob Arum and moved to New Orleans until the NBA stepped in and put the kibosh to the plan. They had four consecutive sixty loss seasons. They were the joke of the league. It's hard to say that the eventual landing of KG was "a payoff" for the ineptitude of six years.

The Wolves are starting over. It could be a long, long time before they are ever good again. A lot of it depends on luck. I can't guarantee that there's going to be a payoff. Who's to say that they won't end up like the Clippers... a drift for decades? There are a couple of players on this team that might be spare parts, so this is a time to develop them. BAJ is a nice number two guy (he'd be better if he tried to actually play defense). The big thing, though, is that they have to get lucky. And, until they do, sports fans in this region are going to be subjected to one terrible result after another. Hopefully, by result I mean a season of games. Because, each "result' could be a season. And we could be subjected to season after season of absolutely awful basketball. It's happened around here before.

Meanwhile, watch it and weep.