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Bonser with Torn Labrum AND Torn Rotator Cuff?

ubelmann February 25, 2009, at 1:47 pm 15 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

Yikes. Not good news, friends:

Doctors today found a torn labrum and torn rotator cuff in Boof Bonser’s right shoulder, leading to more extensive repairs than what was first thought.

Bonser is out at least six months, but probably the whole season.

I thought that Bonser was our 5th best starter going into the season, maybe 6th-best. Either way, this is a big blow to the Twins' pitching depth. I wouldn't count on him for more than 75 replacement-level innings in 2010, either.

Great Moments in Enhanced Gameday History – 19 Sep 2008, inning 4

Rhubarb_Runner September 19, 2008, at 7:30 pm Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired , ,


Delay.


Click here to continue reading Great Moments in Enhanced Gameday History – 19 Sep 2008, inning 4...

If Kyle Lohse is an All-Star, then I am an All-Star

ubelmann July 1, 2008, at 3:58 pm 20 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) ,

I don't know if this was meant to be sensationalistic or what, but really? I mean really? Lohse has a few wins and all of the sudden he's an All-Star candidate?

At one point I think I may have been the only guy in Lohse's corner in the entire state of Minnesota. (I find that link particularly interesting in that I suggested Lohse was somewhat better than Boof in much the same way that this year I have suggested that Boof is somewhat better than Perkins.*) But to think that Lohse is an All-Star now is to make the same mistake that people made in thinking that he was washed up back in 2006. He's a mediocre pitcher and over short time scales (like, say, half a season) he will sometimes look great according to his ERA and he will sometimes look awful according to his ERA (especially if you put Tony Batista and Juan Castro behind him.)

Suppose for a moment you don't really buy into defense-independent stats (which I think would be silly, but whatever). 17 pitchers in the NL have a better ERA than Kyle Lohse. Seventeen. Of those pitchers, you have names like Lincecum, Volquez, Sheets, Haren, Santana, Zambrano, Wainright, Webb, Hamels, and Billingsley. How many GMs would trade Lohse for any one of those guys? Zero. By ERA, Lohse is only the 3rd-best pitcher on his own team. (He's also only the 3rd-best pitcher on his own team by xFIP.)

But Lohse has 10 shiny wins, so apparently he's managed to become part of the discussion. Aren't wins great? Let's play a little game:

Team A:
Webb
Volquez
Cook
Lohse
Dempster

Team B:
Webb
Lowe
Haren
Lincecum
Santana

Which team would you rather have? Personally, I'd take Team B in a heartbeat. Of course, Team B consists of the five best xFIP's so far in the NL and Team A consists of the five winningest pitchers in the NL so far, so that should be no surprise.

Heck, we could play this game for the AL, too:

Team C:
Halladay
Lee
Beckett
Sabathia
Pettite

Team D:
Lee
Saunders
Mussina
Padilla
Matsuzaka

This time I switched it around a little bit, and Team C is the team with the best xFIP's while Team D is the team with the most wins. And yes, I would take Team C in a heartbeat over Team D. (Also, there seems to be an idea out there that Cliff Lee should obviously be the ASG starter, but I would give Halladay the nod. He's been absolutely outstanding while his offense has been offensive.)

Anyway, I digress. This has been your 2008 ubelmann Lohse-rant.

*Really, though, if you're completely worried about Boof's future, take a minute to compare Lohse's 2006 season with the Twins to Boof's 2008 campaign. I think you'll agree with me that Boof has been better than Lohse was in 2006. Then notice that Kyle Lohse has posted an ERA+ of at least 98 at each stop since leaving the Twins. As I stated in 2006, Lohse is probably a somewhat better pitcher than Bonser, but the difference isn't all that big.

Game 55: New York at Minnesota

ubelmann May 31, 2008, at 5:00 pm 141 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Chien-Ming Wang vs. Boof Bonser

Wang's GB% is lower than it was last year, but is still very good at 56%. His strikeouts have been rising a bit as his ground balls have been going away, though.

The Yankees have been more or less the third-best-hitting team against right-handed pitching so far this year. The next three games could get fairly ugly.

Go Boof, go!

Game 44: Rangers vs. Twins

ubelmann May 19, 2008, at 6:00 pm 377 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Scott Feldman vs Boof Bonser

2008 Game 39: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins

ubelmann May 14, 2008, at 6:00 pm 181 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Roy Halladay vs. Boof Bonser

.274/.338/.403 -- Michael Cuddyer, post-DL, 68 PA

2008 Game 33: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

ubelmann May 9, 2008, at 5:00 pm 241 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Jon Lester vs. Boof Bonser

Jon Lester is one of those pitchers I just don't "get." Or rather, I don't understand where all the hype comes from. In the minors, Lester had 203 walks in 486 innings, and holy crap that's a lot of walks. As one might reasonably expect, his walk rate has increased now that he's facing better hitters. He's allowed 100 walks in 190 innings, for a rather crazy 4.7 BB/9 rate. And he hasn't exactly been showing progress--so far this year he's allowed 26 walks in 45.7 innings, for a 5.1 BB/9 rate.

To be particularly valuable with a walk rate like that, you'd better be missing an awful lot of bats or getting an awful lot of ground balls. Lester has been getting ground balls (46 GB%) at about a league average rate (45% GB%) so far, but his strikeout rate this year (5.2 K/G) is below league average (6.2 K/G).

I hear he has the famous "bulldog mentality" on the mound and it's true that he throws with his left hand, but I don't think he's going to be above replacement level unless he can really improve his control, and I doubt he's going to improve his control very much at this stage of his career.

Boof's had a really low walk rate so far this year, but it figures to go up as tonight's contest wears on. The Red Sox have 138 walks so far this season--good for 3rd most in the AL--nearly twice as many walks as the Twins have (70).

It'll be interesting tonight to see if Boof can put the ball across the plate and be successful against a good group of patient hitters, and whether or not the Twins can be patient enough to take advantage of Lester's biggest weakness.

Oh yeah, I'll mention that I wrote the Dugout Splinters that will appear in the Minnesota Gameday programs for the Boston series, if that makes you more likely to buy one as you're going to a game this weekend. And if it makes you less likely to buy one...forget I mentioned it.

2008 Game 30: Detroit Tigers vs. FIRST PLACE Minnesota Twins

ubelmann May 4, 2008, at 12:00 pm 119 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

Kenny Rogers vs. Boof

At the moment, I have two thoughts:

1) Being in first place is nice, regardless of how long it lasts.

2) Kenny Rogers 2003 reminds me of Kyle Lohse 2008. (Expected multi-year deal, nothing doing on that front, signed contract in the middle of spring training, figure to be a league average-ish pitcher nonetheless.)