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2009 Game 47: Red Sox @ Twins

FirstTimeLongTime May 26, 2009, at 6:04 pm 169 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Jon Lester (xFIP 3.79)

@

Nick Blackburn (xFIP 5.06)

First off, let me say Joe Mauer is better than Babe Ruth, Seabiscut, really good beer, and a weekday off from work combined.   I was going to start throwing around some numbers today to show the historical significance of what he is doing right now but socal beat me to the punch.  After that I thought that maybe I could write a piece about how Joe Mauer makes me feel like I am an eight year old girl and reminds me exactly why I love baseball in the first palace.  But then Joe Posnanski had to go and do that. So here I am without anything to write about. And sadly, I don't have the time to come up with a new idea or the patience that would be required to do research on such a topic.

I do have one additional thought on Mauer's performance as of late;  this, right now, is better than Santana's prime to me.   After Johan was dialed in, striking out batter after batter, we had to wait four more days before we could see him do it again.   With Mauer, each day is a new adventure.   If Baby Jebus does something out of this world, like hitting a 2 run, pinch hit, home run in the bottom of the ninth, we only have to wait 24 more hours to see what he would be up to next.  We are watching something special right now.

Enjoy.

Mugshot Purgatory: Some Ps and BoSox

AMR May 26, 2009, at 8:30 am 7 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , ,

Up from AAA: Anthony "50-Game" Swarzak, and Sean "Pea" Henn
swarzak_anthony_2009aaaswarzak_anthony_2009
henn_sean_2009aaahenn_sean_2009henn_sean_2008
(Swarzak '09AAA, '09; Henn '09AAA, '09, '08)
Swarzak doesn't look any more likely to be a pothead than many other players, like, say, Denard Span or Mark Kotsay.

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2009 Game 46: Red Sox at Twins: this time, it’s personal

spookymilk May 25, 2009, at 12:35 pm 128 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , ,

Brad Penny
4-1 --- 6.07 ---ERA+80 --- WHIP 1.651 --- K/9 = 4.6 --- BB/9 = 3.6
Most similar pitcher: Chris Carpenter (second is Rick Reed.  Yikes!)

Francisco Liriano
2-5 --- 6.04 --- ERA+ 71 --- WHIP 1.461 --- K/9 = 7.1 --- BB/9 = 4.4
Most similar pitcher through age 24: Ad Brennan
Most similar pitcher through age 24 that you've heard of: Dan Schatzeder (3rd most similar overall)

Liriano's numbers here and otherwise look a little better than Penny's in general, but when you have a fat (phat?) lineup like they do, they're going to bail you out and hand you some wins.  But arguing the merits of either guy is splitting hairs: they've both been big disappointments this year.  Both have battled injuries for a couple years now, and both have fanbases that anxiously await a return to greatness that may never come.

The Red Sox handily swept a two-game, one-day series in Boston already this season, and since then have surged from the middle of the pack to the top of the AL East, where many of us predicted they'd be.  The scary thing, naturally, is that they're doing it without Manny, who's gone, and Ortiz, who has sucked thus far.

The Red Sox have certainly been a thorn for the Twins in the past; last year, after that groin-grabbingly awesome 18-3 run the Twins went on, they headed to Fenway and got swept (only to start a 5-1 run upon conclusion of the series).  Last year in the Dome, though, the Twins won three of the four contests.  Liriano didn't face the Red Sox last year, as all the meetings were between his exit and re-entry after his injury.

Joseph Patrick Mauer
.438/.525/.875 --- 10 HR --- 29 RBI --- 99 Plate Appearances
Most Similar Player: Robinson Cano...?!

Joe Mauer is not playing today.  I'm all for days off, but with a DH, and with Mauer being Mauer...that's criminal.

Gomez,CF
Tolbert, 2B
Morneau, 1B
Kubel, DH
Cuddyer, RF
Buscher, 3B
Redmond, C
Young, LF
Punto, SS

Not exactly a fear-inspiring lineup.  But with Penny pitching like he has so far this year, anything's possible.  Go Twins!

Series Preview in Blog: Boston Red Sox (5/25-5/28)

Big Mak May 25, 2009, at 8:00 am 5 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

The Red Sox come to town to start off a ten-game road trip with a 4-game series with the Twins. Boston lost 2 of 3 against the Mets this weekend, and lost 3 of their 4 series on the road this month. Overall, the Sox are 9-12 on the road, but remain in first place in the AL East, one half game ahead of the Blue Jays. The Twins are 17-9 at home, having won 8 of their last 9 in the Dome.

Judging by the blogs, everyone in Red Sox nation is talking about David Ortiz. He's been keeping pace with Matt Tolbert in the HR race, but apparently that's not acceptable for Big Papi. He's gone back to struggling mightily, and the rumor is that he's going to be moved down in the lineup for this series. Still, it could all just be an elaborate trap (A-Rod and Teixeira were supposedly struggling too).


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Game 15: Minnesota @ Boston

FirstTimeLongTime April 21, 2009, at 5:27 pm 41 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Scott Baker (FIP 16.26!)

v.

Tim Wakefield (FIP 3.79)

Off days stink and tonight's game, judging by the looks of the weather in Boston, is looking like a prime candidate for some serious rain delays, if not postponement. With that said, I am going to keep this short because I really don't want to write a thousand word game log for a game that might not take place.

The Twins fresh off of their sweep of the Anaheim Angels of Los Angles California, Orange County, look to increase their winning streak to 3 4 games. The Boston Red Sox, after pummeling the Baltimore O's, too are looking to build on a winning streak now at 5 games.

Someone must break; It's Wakefield, it's Baker, it is MLB on FSN!

Rainout

Rescheduled for tomorrow afternoon.

Series Preview in Blog: Boston Red Sox (4/21-4/22)

Big Mak April 21, 2009, at 8:00 am 6 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

The Twins travel to Boston for a quick two game series having just swept the Angels to get their record back to even at 7-7. The Red Sox welcome the Twins for a quick two game series having just swept the Orioles to get their record back to even at 7-6. The Twins are 1-2 on the road (having only traveled to Chicago thus far), while the Red Sox are 5-2 at Fenway. The four game sweep of the Orioles worked wonders for fans that weren't panicking, but were, perhaps, a tad concerned before the Orioles came to town. Among their concerns was the fact that David Ortiz wasn't hitting for power (or at all). Before you get too worried that he's due for an enormous series to right himself, he broke out a bit with a big day Monday with a couple extra base hits (why am I not relieved?).

The Sox have had some injury issues of late, they currently have Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Smoltz, Jed Lowrie, Julio Lugo, and Mark Kotsay all on the disabled list. Of course, a team like the Red Sox is built to withstand situations like this. Except that most of the people mentioned as potential replacement parts in that post are now injured themselves (Clay Buckholz, probably next in line for the rotation recently went on the minor league DL with a hamstring injury), so with their top two shortstops on the shelf they may be wearing thin in a couple places.

As if that wasn't bad enough now people are threatening the Sox MVP second baseman. This, of course, has his roommates on edge a bit.

---PROBABLE PITCHERS---

Baker v. T. Wakefield

Wakefield has had one good start and one bad start this season. Last time out he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning, saving an overworked bullpen and inspiring a whole bunch of tributes from fans that have been seeing him in a Sox uniform for a long time.

Liriano v. B. Penny

Penny has had one good start and one bad start this season. He got rocked by the Orioles last time out (the only bad pitching performance of the last weekend), but the Boston offense bailed him out so he has the somewhat nonsensical line of 1-0, 11.00 ERA so far this season.

Six Word Team Evaluations — Boston Red Sox

SBG April 21, 2009, at 6:00 am 30 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) ,

Hey, I've got a little unfinished business in the old player evaluations and we'll get back to that again soon enough. But, I was sitting here thinking about playing the BoSox and I thought, why not do a little Six Word evaluation exercise on the opposing teams? This might work out a little better with some teams than others, but let's give it a shot. I'll take up to three evaluations of the opposing team (no more bite me Torii entries!) and we'll have a vote in day 2 of the series. Typically, I'm going to write these posts at night, so if you haven't got your evaluation(s) in by game time, don't expect it to be included in the list. Note that I'm going to put the poll in the original post, just to keep things straight. So, come back to this post on Wednesday to vote.

Here's mine on the Red Sox:

Hate Yankees, yes, but despise Sox.

Have at it, boys and girls.

Fun with Upper Deck: 2008 Documentary, Game 36

Rhubarb_Runner January 27, 2009, at 5:30 am 14 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

2008_362008 Documentary: Twins Game 36

Card #950/BOS40


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Whatever

SBG July 10, 2008, at 7:51 am 2 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Maybe access is everything. What a stupid column by Jeff Pearlman about his walk from Fenway Park to a train after the game.

Game 91: Twins at Red Sox

SBG July 9, 2008, at 11:25 am 344 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

ubelmann must have been doing some late night physics equations or something. The starters are Josh Beckett and Livan Hernandez. Looking at that matchup makes the last two losses sting just a little more.

Game 90: Twins vs. Crimson Hosers

ubelmann July 8, 2008, at 5:00 pm 191 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Blackburn v. Lester

Now that Lester has started throwing more strikes and has his xFIP down to 4.17, I'm less of a hater.

The Red Sox are currently in second place in the AL East. I see two clear reasons for this:

1) The Red Sox are not superheroes in a cartoon.
2) The Rays are THE DEFENDERS OF THE GAME.

Really, everyone in the AL should just be re-tooling for next year. Unless they can come out with cartoons of comparable quality, I just don't see anyone touching the Rays.

Game 89: Twins at Beantown

ubelmann July 7, 2008, at 5:00 pm 250 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Light Rail vs. Dice-K

Dice-K has a 5.07 xFIP so far this year, mainly fueled by a crazy 5.7 BB/G and a low, low 35.5% GB%. As a team, the Twins still don't walk very much (255 walks ranks 25th in baseball), but it seems like (outside of Gomez and Delmon) a lot of the hitters have at least an approach balanced between patience and aggression, if not an approach that favors patience.

Dice-K was on the DL for a while, but it's not as though his control looks any better since he's been back, having thrown 11 walks in 11 IP.

2008 Game 37: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

ubelmann May 12, 2008, at 4:00 pm 224 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

Clay Buchholz vs. Livan Hernandez

Programming note: Beware the 6pm CT ESPN start time.

Buccholz has a 3.45 xFIP so far, to go with a ZiPS-projected 4.47 ERA. Lots of strikeouts (8.9 K/G), and an uspectacular/poorish walk rate (3.4 BB/G), and a decent ground balll rate (44% GB%). I certainly think he'll turn out to be a better pitcher than Jon Lester.

Livan managed to tame the Tigers when he faced them last, and it still kind of baffles my mind that he was able to do that. Can he do it to the Red Sox? I kind of doubt it, but a lot of pitchers will struggle with this lineup this year, so that's not necessarily a huge knock on Livan.

A velocity comparison:

Fastball:
84.1 mph -- Livan Hernandez
83.8 mph -- Barry Zito

Slider:
77.8 mph -- Livan (19.6% of all pitches)
75.7 mph -- Zito (only 2.5% of his pitches this year)

Curveball:
64.4 mph -- Livan
69.4 mph -- Zito

Change:
74.7 mph -- Livan
73.1 mph -- Zito

Right now, I think it's a safe bet to say that Livan Hernandez has better stuff than Barry Zito. (I even kind of like that Livan's curve is soooo slow, since it seems to help upset hitters' timing pretty well.) Holy crap it must be hard to be a Giants fan sometimes.

2008 Game 36: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

ubelmann May 11, 2008, at 6:00 pm 244 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Tim Wakefield vs. Nick Blackburn

I don't think I really have anything particularly worth saying today. I'm sure we'll hear about Wakefield's previous success in domes about 10,000 times during the broadcast.

Happy Mother's Day.

2008 Game 35: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

ubelmann May 10, 2008, at 4:30 pm 170 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , ,

Dice-K vs. Glen Perkins

Dice-K has 27 walks in 40.7 IP this year. Holy walks, batman. I've got a good feeling about Morneau vs. Dice-K today.

For all the same reasons I don't really believe that much in Jon Lester as a top pitching prospect, I have serious doubts about Perkins. Mainly, I just don't know that he's going to be able to throw enough strikes without catching too much of the plate. In that sense, the Red Sox seem like a nightmare matchup for him, and if the strike zone is at all small, it could be a long night for the bullpen.

Hitting comparison!

.254/.324/.443 -- MIN, 1B
.311/.415/.553 -- BOS, 1B

A 91-point edge in OBP and a 53-point edge in SLG for Boston. And Morneau hasn't even been a complete disaster so far.

.243/.268/.313 -- MIN, 3B
.292/.340/.444 -- BOS, 3B

72-point edge in OBP, and an 82-point edge in SLG for Boston.

.264/.308/.304 -- MIN, LF (AKA TynyLF Mark II)
.295/.375/.521 -- BOS, LF (AKA Manny being Manny)

Our left fielder has an OBP higher than his SLG. It's like having Luis Castillo out there, except without all of the infield hits and eccentricities.

.258/.306/.339 -- MIN, RF
.281/.372/.422 -- BOS, RF

Another position where the Twins just get smacked around.

.258/.278/.414 -- MIN, DH
.245/.343/.435 -- BOS, DH

And that's with Ortiz's awful start to the season.

I suspect that regression to the mean will work in the Twins' favor at these positions as the season wears on, but these ought to be the easiest positions to get offense out of, but for whatever reason getting offense from these positions is like trying to make lemonade from apples for the Twins.

 
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