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Projected Bullpen Performance

ubelmann August 28, 2009, at 3:16 pm 3 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

Apparently the Twins have acquired Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay. As a means of summary, using my preferred metric these days, ZiPS-projected rest-of-season FIP (new guys in bold, active-roster guys in italics), here are some bullpen names you are familiar with:

2.39 -- Joe Nathan
3.72 -- Jesse Crain
3.77 -- Craig Breslow
3.96 -- Jon Rauch
4.14 -- Matt Guerrier
4.28 -- Ship of Man
4.62 -- Luis Ayala
4.77 -- Ron Mahay
5.08 -- Kevin Mulvey
5.25 -- Brian Duensing
5.31 -- Bobby Keppel
5.35 -- R.A. Dickey
5.44 -- Jose Mijares*
5.64 -- Juan Morillo
(something bad) -- Armando Gabino
5.75 -- Philip Humber
6.48 -- Sean Henn
Frown -- Pat Neshek

*I still don't quite understand this one, but even Mijares' current 3.97 FIP isn't really blowing me away.

Was anyone excited about the Twins' bullpen when we had Ayala and Breslow? Rauch and Mahay really aren't different from that pair.

I'm not especially of the opinion that adding mediocre relief pitchers (at any point this season) was really going to do much for the Twins. What this team really missed was a second go-to arm behind Joe Nathan, to use in the really high-leverage situations, and those don't come easy.

Luis Ayala? Really? Okay

ubelmann February 6, 2009, at 7:44 pm 5 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Here's where Luis Ayala fits in my list of bullpen options from earlier this offseason:

3.18 FIP -- Nathan
3.86 FIP -- Breslow
4.06 FIP -- Mijares
4.10 FIP -- Crain
4.36 FIP -- Bonser
4.41 FIP -- Ayala
4.49 FIP -- Guerrier
4.50* FIP -- Swarzak
4.50* FIP -- Gabino
4.54 FIP -- Korecky
4.68 FIP -- Perkins
4.75* FIP -- Jason Jones
4.82 FIP -- Humber
5.14 ERA -- Mulvey
5.79 ERA -- Duensing
?.?? -- Neshek

And here's where he fits on the list including other pitchers who have been signed this off-season:

3.18 FIP -- Nathan
3.40 FIP -- K-Rod
3.51 FIP -- Kerry Wood
3.65 FIP -- Dasamo Marte
3.66 FIP -- Arthur Rhodes
3.69 FIP -- Fuentes
3.86 FIP -- Breslow
4.00 FIP -- Hoffman
4.06 FIP -- Mijares
4.09 FIP -- Trever Miller
4.10 FIP -- Crain
4.10 FIP -- Howry
4.14 FIP -- Affeldt
4.20 FIP -- Jorge Julio
4.21 FIP -- Joe Nelson
4.23 FIP -- Embree
4.30 FIP -- Tyler Johnson
4.35 FIP -- Brocail
4.36 FIP -- Bonser
4.36 FIP -- Ledezma
4.41 FIP -- Ayala
4.43 FIP -- Chad Fox (given sample size, that's highly suspect)
4.49 FIP -- Guerrier
4.50 FIP -- Mike Lincoln
4.50* FIP -- Swarzak
4.50* FIP -- Gabino
4.54 FIP -- Korecky
4.60 FIP -- Majewski
4.64 FIP -- Scott Proctor
4.68 FIP -- Perkins
4.75* FIP -- Jason Jones
4.80 FIP -- Farnsworth
4.82 FIP -- Humber
5.14 ERA -- Mulvey
5.79 ERA -- Duensing

Ayala looks like a fastball/slider guy with his fastball sitting around 91 and his slider sitting around 82-85. His last really good season was in 2004. That's a really long time ago. Heck, in 2004, I still lived in Minnesota and I was just finding out about these new-fangled blog thingies. Ayala might be decent, but if he pushes out Humber, I'm probably not going to be too happy about this in the end.

The $1.3M might be an overpay, but I'm not terribly concerned about that. The bigger potential cost could be pushing someone else off the roster, but we'll have to wait to see how that plays out. Putting this in perspective of the grand scheme of things, I consider this almost a non-move.

State of the Bullpen

ubelmann January 9, 2009, at 8:00 am 12 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

In today's Cup of Coffee, twayn mentioned that the bullpen is an area where we could conceivably pick up some help for cheap, but we haven't done so yet. My impression is that the market for RP has been pretty slow so far, so I thought I'd take a look at who has been signed so far. Before that, though, we should probably take a quick glance at who is on hand (these are guys on the 40-man roster (plus Kevin Mulvey) who could potentially wind up in the bullpen), and for the sake of a quick-and-dirty look at them, let's use their 2009-Marcel-projected FIP to rank them. In the absence of major league data (hence no Marcel projection), I'll use their PECOTA-projected 2009 ERA from the 2008 projections. They are on the same scale, so I think that it is roughly fair to compare them. In the absence of either, I will make a WAG, and put an asterisk by it.

Click here to continue reading State of the Bullpen...

Twins Trade Piece of Meat for Eddie Guardado

SBG August 25, 2008, at 2:48 pm 33 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

Twins send Hamburger to Texas for Everyday Eddie.

The Minnesota Twins announced today that they have acquired lefthanded pitcher Eddie Guardado from the Texas Rangers in exchange for righthanded pitcher Mark Hamburger.

Guardado, 37, was 3-3, 3.65 ERA (49.1 ip, 20 er) and converted all four of his save opportunities in 55 appearances for the Rangers this season. He allowed just three home runs while walking 17 and striking out 28, while holding opponents to a .220 (38-for-173) batting average. Guardado has a career record of 44-58 with a 4.27 ERA (899.1 ip, 427 er), with 331 walks and 773 strikeouts. He has 187 career saves (232 opportunities), including 116 with the Twins, which ranks third on the Twins All-Time list behind Rick Aguilera (254) and Joe Nathan (195).

Hamburger, 21, was 1-2, 4.17 ERA (36.2 ip, 17 er) with 13 saves (14 opportunities) in 27 appearances for the Rookie-level Elizabethton Twins (Appalachian League) this season. He was named to the Appalachian League Postseason All-Star Team as well as being named the Appalachian League Closer of the Year.

I'm expecting a presser with Eddie crying about how happy he is to be back with the Twins. Just get some guys out, Eddie, and I'll be happy.

I’m Just Sayin’

ubelmann July 7, 2008, at 9:01 pm 16 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

Twins Bullpen By 2008 FIP, Entering Monday's game:

1.54 -- Craig Breslow
2.33 -- Joe Nathan
3.71 -- Dennys Reyes
3.76 -- Matt Guerrier
3.90 -- Boof Bonser
4.09 -- Jesse Crain
5.20 -- Brian Bass

Gardy had a bad night with the bullpen management, I'm afraid. Hopefully he bounces back tomorrow.