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ubelmann  November 7, 2009, at 5:18 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Carlos Gomez, J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins
While doing further digging on Gomez/Hardy, I found this:
.278/.339/.399 -- Carlos Gomez, minors age 18-21
.271/.332/.405 -- J.J. Hardy, minors age 18-21 (plus 74 PA this year)
.248/.293/.352 -- Carlos Gomez, majors age 22-23
.246/.319/.388 -- J.J. Hardy, majors age 22-23
Yes, Gomez has the worse age 22-23 line by a bit, but that's not what I would consider a significant difference over two seasons. (Especially since Hardy's age 23 season was pretty incomplete.)
The Brewers likely view this trade as trading 27-year-old J.J. Hardy for 24-year-old J.J. Hardy. Both Gomez and Hardy are good defenders up-the-middle, and Hardy's .751 career OPS doesn't really seem all that unattainable for Gomez if you figure that Gomez managed a .738 at a very young age in the minors and a lot of players who are rushed through the minors like that wind up hitting about the same in their major-league career.
Anyway, this still seems like a pretty even deal to me, with the Twins taking on more payroll but reducing their risk and the Brewers doing the opposite.
ubelmann  November 6, 2009, at 3:39 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, J.J. Hardy, Minnesota Twins
There was a real honest-to-goodness thunderstorm in Seattle last night. This pretty much never happens in Seattle, and the low rumble of that thunder was music to this Midwestern boy's ears. I should have expected something major was changing...
To cut to the chase, I think that swapping Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy is perfectly reasonable in and of itself, but I can't stand what this means about Delmon Young's place on the team.
First off, J.J. Hardy vs. Carlos Gomez. Both are up-the-middle players, so at least Bill Smith didn't totally hose us again by ditching up-the-middle talent for some corner players. And playing league-average SS is actually worth about 5 runs more than league-average CF over a full season (say 150 games and 600 PA.)
I don't know that either player is really more likely to miss time due to injury than the other, so I'll estimate their team-controlled playing time as follows:
2010 - 145G/550PA
2011 - 140G/525PA
2012 - 135G/500PA (just Gomez, Hardy is a FA in 2012)
2013 - 130G/475PA (just Gomez, Hardy is a FA in 2012)
Those are rough, but right-now-at-this-very-moment, we have to figure their expected playing time to drop off because each next season makes it more likely that they've developed a chronic injury or had a freak catastrophic injury in the past.
Defensively, by UZR, Gomez has been worth +14 runs/150G in his career and Hardy has been worth +11 runs/150G in his career. Both have likely peaked defensively*, so I figure their future performance might be something like:
Gomez:
2010 - +13 R/150G
2011 - +12 R/150G
2012 - +11 R/150G
2013 - +10 R/150G
Hardy:
2010 - +10 R/150G
2011 - +9 R/150G
*Defense tends to peak a lot earlier than hitting does.
That's mostly guesswork, since I don't know much work done on defensive aging, but it's generally difficult to get around regression to the mean. If anything, I would guess that both players should probably be projected to regress more towards the mean.
Now, how are they going to hit? Well, here are some career numbers:
.286 wOBA, -39.4 wRAA, 1102 PA, -21.5 wRAA/600PA -- Carlos Gomez
.325 wOBA, -6.6 wRAA, 2298 PA, -1.7 wRAA/600PA -- J.J. Hardy
So Hardy has been a much, much, much better hitter than Gomez. 2 wins/year on offense is nothing to sneeze at. I'm inclined to give Gomez the benefit of the doubt to some degree, because he seems to have good bat speed and is no less lost at the plate than Hunter was at his age. If someone got him to totally ignore the bunt game, I think it's not unreasonable that Gomez could eventually evolve into a .260/.300/.410 hitter. That ain't great, but it's only a touch worse than Hardy has been. Of course, I see that more as Gomez's ceiling and a reason to believe that he could improve greatly, not that he will improve.
I tend to think that Hardy has more or less shown us what he can do at the plate and is equally likely to do better or worse than his career numbers over the next couple of years. Was last year an awful sign? Well, let's look at his PrOPS line (which adjusts a hitter's line based on his batted ball types--line drives, pop ups, etc.--to see what he "should" have hit) from last year against his actual line and his career line:
.229/.302/.357 -- Hardy, 2009
.251/.321/.394 -- Hardy, 2009 PrOPS
.262/.323/.428 -- Hardy, career
I look at those numbers and more or less figure that Hardy was kind of unlucky on his batted-ball outcomes last year and is pretty likely to bounce back to his career hitting numbers, especially since he's 2-3 years away from age 30.
So my rough hitting estimations for these two guys go like:
Gomez:
2010 -- -20 wRAA/600PA
2011 -- -18 wRAA/600PA
2012 -- -16 wRAA/600PA
2013 -- -15 wRAA/600PA
Hardy:
2010 -- -2 wRAA/600PA
2011 -- -2 wRAA/600PA
We'll put replacement level at 20 runs per 150 games, SS at +7.5 runs per 150 games and CF at +2.5 runs per 150 games. Throw it all in a blender and we get the following:
| Gomez |
|
|
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|
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| Year |
Fielding |
Hitting |
Positional |
Replacement |
Total |
WAR |
| 2010 |
12.6 |
-18.3 |
2.4 |
19.3 |
16 |
1.6 |
| 2011 |
11.2 |
-15.8 |
2.3 |
18.7 |
16 |
1.6 |
| 2012 |
9.9 |
-13.3 |
2.3 |
18.0 |
17 |
1.7 |
| 2013 |
8.7 |
-11.9 |
2.2 |
17.3 |
16 |
1.6 |
| Hardy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year |
Fielding |
Hitting |
Positional |
Replacement |
Total |
WAR |
| 2010 |
9.7 |
-1.8 |
7.3 |
19.3 |
34 |
3.4 |
| 2011 |
8.4 |
-1.8 |
7.0 |
18.7 |
32 |
3.2 |
That gives us 6.5 WAR for Gomez over the next four years and 6.6 WAR for Hardy over the next four years. Of course, Hardy's projection kills Gomez's in yearly value, 3.3 WAR/year to 1.6 WAR/year.
Now we need to talk dollars and cents, because as we were unkindly reminded (again) this year, the Twins operate with a finite budget. Projecting future salaries, I figure roughly:
Gomez $$$ (based somewhat on what Cuddyer's made so far):
2010 -- $0.5M
2011 -- $1.0M
2012 -- $3.0M
2013 -- $5.0M
Hardy $$$:
2010 -- $7M
2011 -- $10M
At $4M/win*, 6.5 wins is worth $26M. So in net value while under team control we have:
Net Value -- Dude
+$16.5M -- Gomez
+$9.5M -- Hardy
*It has been more like $4.5-5M/win on the free agent market lately, but I expect the recession to reduce the total number of dollars chasing a fixed number of free agent wins.
In terms of net value per year, we have:
2010: +$6.0M -- Gomez, +$6.5M -- Hardy
2011: +$5.5M -- Gomez, +$3.0M -- Hardy
2012: +$3.5M -- Gomez
2013: +$1.5M -- Gomez
Now, maximizing wins/dollar isn't everything. It's really important, but if you're going to win a championship, at some point you're going to need some above-average players. J.J. Hardy is above average and Carlos Gomez is not. The Twins have essentially invested $7M in concentrating 6-7 wins over two years instead of four. That strikes me as a reasonable sum to spend on that trade-off, although it would be a lot harder to justify if the Twins had any kind of depth at all in the middle infield. As it stands, the Twins now have two middle infielders above replacement level: J.J. Hardy and Nick Punto. So I think that this is a fair deal for the Twins, but I'm not exactly doing cartwheels in the street, either.
Personally, I thought that having Gomez around made the game a little more fun than it should have been, so I'm going to miss that, but at some point it seems that the Twins kind of gave up on his odds of improving at the plate, so I'm happy to see him move to an organization where they'll hopefully give him a full-time job to improve as a hitter.
Of course, a big part of the reason I'm not doing cartwheels in the street is because we have committed to playing this guy in LF for the foreseeable future:

AMR  May 6, 2009, at 8:30 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) 90x135, Baltimore Orioles, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Jason Pridie, Minnesota Twins
SBG  March 11, 2009, at 7:22 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Carlos Gomez, Minnesota Twins, Six Word Player Evaluations
Okay, let's have a go at Mr. Gomez, the slick fielding, no hit center fielder. Here's my take:
Warning! Sniffing bats causes two-strike bunts.
Give it your best shot and remember: 4 entries, maximum.
Yesterday's Jason Kubel vote was close, but the winner was brianS's "What this club needs: More Kubel!!!" with Sheenie's "Dude, His Dudeness, Duder, El Duderino" coming second. Third was "He really ties the lineup together".
Today's poll is for Michael Cuddyer. You can vote for up to FIVE entries. Wow... 45 entries, a new record. I also see there were a couple of new contributors. Welcome aboard and we hope you'll stick around.
Select your Favorite Michael Cuddyer Six Word Evaluations (Max 5)
- Repeating 2006 would be nice trick. -- 29%
- Original "Chosen One", the sequel's better -- 3%
- Michael Cuddyer... have gun will travel -- 10%
- Gardy: Cuddy is my best Buddy -- 2%
- Second coming of Dave Parker's arm. -- 0%
- Cuddyer guesses pitcher's card; guessed wrong. -- 2%
- Better arm than "Bite Me" Torii. -- 0%
- Watch me balance ball on cap! -- 17%
- Span thinks he's a voodoo priest -- 7%
- Bring some magic back to plate -- 7%
- Runner to third? "Make my day" -- 19%
- Arm rocks, Glove? Not so much. -- 5%
- Strib commenters want him at 3rd -- 5%
- Veteran presence: more important than talent. -- 7%
- Pulls RBI out of his hat -- 5%
- Great Arm. Better Contract. Stay healthy. -- 10%
- Best magic trick: Makes baserunners disappear. -- 28%
- Magically Infused Right Arm Of Doom! -- 9%
- The David Copperfield of the Twins. -- 7%
- Hopefully knows how to time travel. -- 9%
- Though body like noodle, Gardy's poodle -- 10%
- Run on me? Ready. Aim. Cuddyer! -- 48%
- Takes the first pitch; strike one -- 7%
- Name was mispronounced until the majors -- 2%
- Really nice guy...wish this mattered -- 16%
- 2006 looks like age 27 spike. -- 2%
- Never forget: badly mistreated in 2003. -- 7%
- Hit off the baggie? Stay put. -- 12%
- New stadium next year - what then? -- 0%
- No speed, cannon arm, evens out -- 5%
- Prolong his career, move.........never mind -- 7%
- I will be easily forgotten someday -- 5%
- Big arm. Sucks up to management. -- 2%
- Not a difference-maker, it seems. -- 3%
- He secretly hates Jim Mandelero, too. -- 3%
- Beatwriter's feel-good story wet-dream -- 2%
- Telegenic... could Bert play right field? -- 0%
- Aggressive opponents fear Sergeant at Arms -- 2%
- Swings at pitches low and away. -- 3%
- He will never become Tim Salmon -- 3%
- Big arm, great quote, beloved dimples. -- 12%
- Leave at 2nd, avoid Castillo Era. -- 2%
- IF defense worse than Todd Walker's? -- 0%
- I'd still take him over Delmon. -- -234%
Total Voters: 58
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ubelmann  December 11, 2008, at 2:30 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Bill Smith, Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Defense Matters, Delmon Young, Eduardo Morlan, Gabe Gross, Jason Bartlett, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Rays, Trade Analysis
While responding to greenmachine's thoughtful comment to my look at the Santana trade, the issue came up about whether or not the Twins should have played for this year and a Young/Span/Cuddyer/Kuble OF-DH situation was proposed. My big problem with this is that it would have required us to make the Delmon Young trade in the first place, which I also really didn't like in the first place.
Click here to continue reading Looking Back At The Delmon Debacle...
ubelmann  December 10, 2008, at 6:42 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Bill Smith, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Jacoby Ellsbury, Johan Santana, Jon Lester, Kevin Mulvey, Melky Cabrera, Minnesota Twins, Philip Humber, Trade Analysis
Q: How did the Twins compete after trading away the best pitcher in baseball?
A: That trade didn't actually hurt them.
Click here to continue reading Taking a Look at the Santana Trade...
ubelmann  August 8, 2008, at 6:00 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, Kyle Davies
Slowey vs. Davies
Using Myron Logan's analysis of RZR data and VORP, a comparison of overall player value:
Defense, runs above average at his position:
8.06 -- Gomez
-3.45 -- Delmon
Offense, VORP (runs above replacement hitter at his position):
-4.5 -- Gomez
6.5 -- Delmon
Total:
3.6 runs -- Gomez
3.1 runs -- Delmon
Gomez is bad in obvious ways, Delmon is bad in somewhat less obvious ways. This doesn't make Delmon any better, though. (Also, Delmon is bad in ways that help expose the weak underbelly of our bullpen.)
Dumb stats of the day:
5-7 -- KC vs. White Sox
2-7 -- KC vs. Twins
SBG  July 27, 2008, at 6:33 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Arnold Palmer, Bob Sansevere, Brad Childress, Brett Favre, Carlos Gomez, Jared Allen, Minnesota Gophers, Patrick Reusse, Sid Hartman, Tom Powers, Top Jimmy
It's a new week, and what better way to start a week than to go back and look at what our local sports columnists wrote about last week. Actually, I can think of a lot better things to do to start a week. In fact, this is way down the list. Really, it's not on the list at all. Nevertheless, I've decided to subject you to the frivolity.
Let's start with Top Jimmy. In his first column of the week, TJ advocated for the removal of Carlos Gomez from the top of the Twins batting order. TJ was telling us earlier this season that Gomez wins the Twins a game a week -- that might be true, but lately, he's been doing his best to lose the other six games a week. TJ accurately points out that Gomez is an exciting player, but he sucks at getting on base. And, considering that leadoff hitters bat more than anyone else on the club, a crappy OBP is not what you need there. The Twins quickly took TJ's advice. This column is pretty much a no-brainer, but TJ has missed no-brainers before, so kudos. Another whipping boy for TJ has been Vikings coach Brad Childress, but the Vikings have the look of a serious contender... okay, I'm not REALLY believing that, but anyway, TJ writes a hey, this Vikings operation looks like it's kind of competent column. Witness:
Now, though, [Childress has] constructed an intimidating running game and added quality receivers to the passing game. He and his quarterback, Tarvaris Jackson, still have miles to go, but Jackson is set up to have at least a solid year as a starter in '08, which would make this (can't ... say ... it ... must ... resist ... optimism) something like a KAO.
In case you are wondering, KAO = kick ass offense. Ouch. First, a my boy Gomez needs to be moved down in the lineup or possibly shipped to Rochester and now a Chili seems to know what he's doing column? Tough week for Top Jimmy. I don't see any poultry references, other than that eating crow that he's doing. What's next, writing a column about a Vikings defensive end and his security blanket? Oh, no he di'nt!
I'm not sure that Patrick Reusse showed up at a game this week wearing the same dress at Tom Powers, but they both wrote the same column last week about some washed up golfer, so that was bad. What can Reusse do to make amends? He starts the week off by scoffing at the Vikings $853 million plan to "reconstruct" the Metrodome. Such a plan would call for $600 million from the taxpayers. I'm pretty happy with the Vikings playing in the Metrodome and, if necessary, somewhere else entirely starting in 2012. 81 dates in a Twins stadium? Yes. 8 regular season Vikings games in an almost billion dollar building? No thanks. The NFL is for TV anyway. Reusse follows that up with a story about a Gopher football player getting his degree 40 years after playing for the U. How is that news? I thought all those guys were on the 40 year plan. Then, Reusse profiles the fourth guy on the Vikings defensive line, at least for now, Jayme Mitchell. It's hard to take that the NFL is coming soon. Reusse ends the week with a tribute to the newly deceased Chicago sportswriter, Jerome Holtzman. In it, he wrote about how much fun it is to hang out in the press box and make fun of ball players -- and that Holtzman was a lot of fun. He kind of sucked as a writer, though.
Holtzman's game stories on the Cubs or the White Sox didn't exactly cause goose bumps on a reader's arms. He embraced clichés as the next generation tried mightily to avoid them.
So, hang out, have fun, mock world class athletes, write crappy stories, and, presumably, hit the bars. Good old boys. One can see why Mr. Reusse has such disdain for bloggers. They are so unprofessional.
Grandpa Sports delivers the usual. Twins happy with Liriano, despite grievance. Tony Dungy thinks the Vikings are going to be good. Seriously, Sid, where do you come up with these questions? You asked somebody who was in town about the Vikings? Brilliant! The Vikings brain trust has been together for a couple of years now, so they are getting their shit together. Think the Brett Favre controversy is something? Well, the Vikings have had their fair share of QB controversies. That last one is a little out of the mold, but never fear, in the same column Sid tells us that the Twins have been a pleasant surprise.
Shooter tears a page out of Grandpa's playbook, writing a non-story about Carl Pohlad. But hey, his first column of the week included this gem:
Golf's "King," Arnold Palmer, was to fly from the Twin Cities to Rochester on Monday in his private jet for his annual physical at the Mayo Clinic.
Well, excuse me for making a crack about a non-story. Shooter follows that stupendous effort up with this one: "Twins reluctant to make a trade that would hurt team's chemistry". Word has it, though, that they aren't worried about fucking up their biology or physics. But, of course, the Shooter column is always about the juicy tidbits. Like this one: "Look for the grass for the Twins' new ballpark opening in 2010 in downtown Minneapolis to be grown on a Colorado sod farm." Whew! That's about as exciting as, well, watching grass grow. Shooter ends a fine week by telling us that Tim Brewster is still promoting the Gopher football program. And there's this note: "The Gophers are still intent on getting the University of Texas on their 2016 football schedule." So, Brewster's gonna make sure that they don't play the Longhorns until after he's fired. Good.
Tom Powers must still be exhausted from his Ron Streck column, so he brings just one column this week about, you guessed it, another old codger golfer that you've never heard of before. Looks like Tom was on vacation. Hope he did something other than hang out with old golfers.
If I keep up this column, Bob Sansevere is going to wear me out. The guy writes pretty much every day. True, he only writes about 200 words a day, but it's every day! Let's see what was on his mind this week. Arnold Palmer says he's had a good life. One would think that there was an old-timer's golf tournament in town with all the old golfers hitting the sports page this week. It's good, though, to see that Arnie has a firm grasp of the obvious. Bob also tells us he's not sold on Tavaris Jackson. But, he's running a KAO, Bob! Speaking of old codger golf, Bob says the course that they played on here in town was too damned easy. Boy, the St. Paul paper spent a lot of time on that tournament. Apparently, Grandpa didn't totally dominate Tony Dungy while he was in town this week. Sansevere talked to him, too. If you just read the headline, "On and On With Indianapolis Colts Coach Tony Dungy" you'd think that Sansevere had a wide ranging interview with the former Vikings assistant coach. You'd be wrong. He's got five questions including a one-word response to a question about Brett Favre. He also didn't ask Tony whether he thought the Vikings would be any good. But, then again, only Sid asks questions like that. Sansevere also talked with Gopher football recruit Sam Maresh, who had heart surgery last month. The kid is talking about playing -- I certainly wouldn't, not after heart surgery. For his final column of the week, Sansevere writes about the rumor that Brett Favre was calling the Vikings on a Packer cell phone. There's a caveat -- if the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (who reported the cellphone story) is dialed in -- but then Bob takes his rips at Favre. Both the Favre and Packers camps are denying this story, so it appears that the MJS was dialing a wrong number. I hope those guys in Milwaukee are fun to hang out with in the baseball press box, because then we can excuse their rumor mongering.
ubelmann  July 21, 2008, at 9:36 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Jacoby Ellsbury, Lineup Effects
AVG/OBP/SLG, since May 1st
.245/.287/.341 -- Carlos Gomez
.257/.312/.341 -- Jacoby Ellsbury
Games/Games hitting leadoff, July
15/15 -- Carlos Gomez
16/16 -- Jacoby Ellsbury
It's frustrating that Gomez isn't hitting, but it's not like the Twins are the only team making decisions like keeping a struggling rookie in the leadoff spot. If he keeps struggling and the Twins start losing, Gardy will make a move. It won't really be a big deal either way, though.
Also, how about this:
.262/.332/.363 -- Jacoby Ellsbury, Age 24
.300/.387/.408 -- Denard Span, Age 24
Span's line is a weighted average of his major league line and the Major League Equivalent of his minor league stats. Ellsbury certainly had a better minor league career on the surface, but he was older and more refined when the Red Sox drafted him. Span walked in 8.8% of his minor league PA, and Ellsbury walked in 9.6% of his minor league PA. Neither player has significant power, and both guys can hit for high average. The difference between Span and Ellsbury is not that large.
But, Denard, if you are reading this, keep working hard--you still suck.
ubelmann  July 9, 2008, at 6:00 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Bunting, Carlos Gomez
42 bunts, 21 bunt hits -- Carlos Gomez, 2008*
So Gomez has been successful (and by successful, I mean successful in reaching base, not successful in the productive out sense) half of the time he's bunted this year. What happens if we divide his plate appearances into bunts and non-bunts?
.235/.276/.352 -- Gomez, 2008, not bunting
.500/.500/.500 -- Gomez, 2008, bunting
.266/.301/.370 -- Gomez, 2008, overall
In general, bunting gets a bad rap because, in general, a player is going to give up an out when he bunts. But Carlos Gomez is a freak. When he bunts, it's to increase his OBP, and thus far, bunting has gotten him on base more than frequently than swinging away has.
*Statistics through July 7th, 2008
ubelmann  July 7, 2008, at 2:31 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Craig Monroe, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau
Some facts:
.284/.344/.419 -- MN vs. RHP, 10th best OPS in baseball
.266/.332/.413 -- AL vs. RHP
.262/.334/.404 -- AL vs. LHP
.261/.309/.375 -- MN vs. LHP, 28th best OPS in baseball
This might lead one to believe that the Twins have a ton of left-handed hitters on the team, making them especially susceptible to left-handed pitching, but that's not the case:
1731 PA as RHB (through 87 games)
1603 PA as LHB (through 87 games)
Though Mauer has been (unsustainably) good against LHP so far (.366/.413/.524 -- having already faced a left-handed pitcher in 45 games), Morneau has been nothing to write home about (.274/.305/.425), and Kubel has probably been about as unlucky vs. LHP as Mauer has been lucky (hitting just .157/.254/.235).
Many have pointed to Craig Monroe's numbers vs. LHP so far this season (which have improved of late and will likely continue to improve), but the team's right-handed hitters in general have been pretty poor against left-handed pitching. As one can see above, the average OPS against left-handed pitchers in the AL is .738. Only two regulars have an OPS better than .738 against left-handed pitchers--Joe Mauer (.937) and Carlos Gomez (.739). Morneau and Casilla have been just barely below average (.736 and .730, respectively), but Redmond, Young, Cuddyer, Monroe, and Harris have all struggled against LHP. (Harris even has a lower OPS vs. LHP than Monroe does at this point.)
It could be a sample size thing where the Twins have, as a whole, faced better than average left-handed pitching, or it could just be something of a fluke, but given their handedness (and the lack of a history of freak platoon splits), I would expect the Twins' performance against LHP to improve relative to their performance against RHP as the season wears on.
Robertson v. Light Rail
Last night's loss was certainly a tough one, but it's a long season, Citizens, hang in there.
2008 VORP for Twins acquired in offseason trades:
3.5 -- Delmon Young
1.2 -- Carlos Gomez
0.3 -- Brendan Harris
-0.8 -- Craig Monroe
2008 VORP for Tigers acquired in offseason trades:
17.2 -- Miguel Cabrera
6.2 -- Edgar Renteria
-6.4 -- Dontrelle Willis
-7.6 -- Jacque Jones
I'm not looking at list of offseason moves, so I may have forgotten one or two guys.
Checking in with Delmon
Sorted by OPS:
.265/.306/.314 -- Delmon, April '08
.264/.339/.358 -- Delmon, May '08
.294/.324/.421 -- Delmon, '08 ZiPS projection
.290/.326/.438 -- Delmon, '08 CHONE projection
.288/.323/.445 -- Delmon, '08 PECOTA projection
.321/.341/.476 -- Delmon, June '08
Delmon did get a number of days off in June, but he also finally posted a month that doesn't remind me of Jason Tyner. The projections would suggest that he can't quite keep that up, but they would also suggest that his June performance is closer to his actual abilities than his April/May performance.
Platoon--it's more than a war movie
Based on the early word, it looks like the Twins will be putting a lot of RHB into the lineup today. (No word yet on whether or not Carlos Guillen is going to throw a hissy fit if Baker misses his spot, leading to Nate Robertson obviously throwing at one of our best hitters twice with no action taken by the umpire in the matter.)
In his career, Nate Robertson has a menacing .666 OPS against lefties and a .816 OPS against righties. Robertson's PECOTA projection this year projects him to have an OPS 120 points better against lefties than righties.
So far this year, on the other hand, Robertson's had pretty even splits of .829 against righties and .837 against lefties. That's having faced just 130 left-handed batters, though, so I'm not at all convinced that this is the start of a new trend. In turn, I think it's a good decision to give Mauer the day off today. I'm a little bit less impressed with the decision to give DSPAN2 the start in the outfield over Kubel, but apparently even Kubel himself considers Robertson to be something of an extra-special nuisance to him, and with his previous knee problems it's probably not such a bad idea to give him some days off.
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Cup of Coffee  9 LTEs
A colleague of mine who is a big sports guy (primarily college) read Top Jimmy's column and told me that the Twins should trade Joe Mauer. What do I take from that? Joe's demands are large enough that some of the more casual fans are starting to get turned off by him.
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Retired WGOM Jokes
- "The Twins should have drafted Mark Prior."
Race to the Bottom: Highest Loss Totals in T-Wolves History 67: 1991-92
63: 1992-93
62: 1993-94
61: 1994-95
60: 1989-90, 2007-08
58: 2008-09
56: 1995-96
53: 1990-91
51: 2009-10
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Recent Letters to the Editor
In Response to Music Day,
hungry joe wrote: Test meat! Doll steak! huh? (still, great album)
Beau wrote: Indeed you don't.
UncleWalt wrote: I haven't gotten around to setting up the stereo system since we moved back here from Chicago ... nearly three years ago. Flume, Bon Iver, For Emma, Forever Ago Brainy, The National, Boxer I Saw the Light, Spoon,…
UncleWalt wrote: Pacing and playing Wagon Wheel from OCMS on a loop was the only way I could get my son to fall asleep for the first two years of his life. Nice list.
FirstTimeLongTime wrote: New computer next week, until then, Pandora … Oberst & The Mystic Valley Band "Big Black Nothing" Outer South The Strokes "Last Night" Is This It? George Jones "Wrong Is What I Do Best" The George…
brianS wrote: Lucky Old Sun is a great little song. I especially enjoy Ray Charles' version. I'll have to find the Johnny Cash version for a listen.
brianS wrote: 1. The Beatles, "Eleanor Rigby," 1962-1966 2. Living Children, "Now It's Over," Garage Beat '66 Vol. 3: Feeling Zero... 3. Simon & Garfinkel, "Mrs. Robinson," Bookends 4. Gary Lewis & The Playboys, "All Day and All of the…
AMR wrote: Week 2 of listening to my entire iPod from A to 9. I'm only 56% of the way through. 1. Ministry "N.W.O." … The Knife "N.Y. Hotel" The Knife 3.…
Big Mak wrote: * We Insist – Zoe Keating - Natoma * The Mountain – Heartless Bastards - The Mountain * Dancing Through Sunday – AFI – Sing the Sorrow …
In Response to Cup of Coffee: March 12, 2010,
SBG wrote: The exodus at KFAN continues. They've kept their top "talent" (sans Hartmann), but everyone else is bolting. I suppose KSTP presents a better opportunity ($) than what they had at KFAN. On…
hungry joe wrote: "Sometimes I think you have to be careful what you say," Guillen said.
socaltwinsfan wrote: Read somewhere that the Twins think they might sell out every game before Opening Day. Get your tickets now! Of course, this could be a PR strategy to cause people to panic and buy season…
freealonzo wrote: The Pmac-Reusse baseball conversations might be worth listening to. I agree with lack of KFAN baseball knowledge. Pmac will be missed. Btw Milt, I think I'm going to go the perv route and root for…
Milt on Tilt wrote: I'm intrigued. The only competent baseball mind on KFAN, Phil Mackey, is switching over to 1500 to … I might have to tune in from time to time to hear them butt heads…
Algonad wrote: I really want a Frito Lay rep to issue a press release saying they're offending by Guillen's comments.
Milt on Tilt wrote: It sounds as if you're not tapping x once the pitch meter reaches the white line? Or at least not very well.
freealonzo wrote: Hey MLB10 The Show Players I need help. I picked up the game and played it for the first time. As a newbie of course I am horrible but I'm really having a…
rob wrote: I think the biggest thing is that Joe made such a big deal about how he wanted to make sure the Twins had a commitment to winning. If he doesn't sign, it makes it…
In Response to Cup of Coffee: March 11, 2010,
AMR wrote: You mean Aaron, Tim, Paige, and Katie?
Milt on Tilt wrote: It was criminally wrong. This is easily the worst season ever. I think I'm gonna tune out and just come back for the final 4
AMR wrote: Well, that was bollocksed up. Todrick, Alex, Katelyn, and Lily. I think we can both agree that was very wrong. At least those four won't have to tour.
In Response to Frank Sinatra and Antônio Carlos Jobim -- Girl From Ipanema,
brianS wrote: You want to be careful where you say such things. Johnny Fontane Mr. Sinatra has friends.
corybante wrote: Mr. Sinatra continues to leave me cold, at least it was short.
In Response to Cup of Coffee: March 10, 2010,
AMR wrote: Huh, he changed the article. Instead of Robert Fick, it used to say Mike Jacobs.
In Response to Happy Birthday--March 12,
CarterHayes wrote: . I love the look of those old Visalia jerseys.