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Value of Denard Span's Defense

ubelmann November 8, 2009, at 12:00 pm 19 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Continuing with the aftermath of the Gomez/Hardy trade, let's take a closer look at the value of Denard Span's defense. He's impressed me in the field, especially in the corners, but looks can be deceiving. On the other hand, small sample size numbers can be deceiving, and he doesn't have a full season's worth of data at any one outfield position. Span's really made such an impact over the last couple of seasons that it's difficult to remember that he doesn't even have two full seasons of experience at all OF positions combined.

UZR is about as good as any other defensive metric and it's easily available. It doesn't necessarily tell a very consistent* story, though. Let's take a look at his numbers for the last two years combined:

-13.8 UZR/150G, -7.7 UZR, 83 G -- CF
+16.7 UZR/150G, +6.0 UZR, 55 G -- LF
+5.8 UZR/150G, +4.8 UZR, 117 G -- RF

*And I'm not referring to how they calculate their ratios, though I could be. There seems to be some round-off issue that I don't understand, but it's not that big of a difference since we are looking at the data to get a good idea of how he is on defense, not to measure his defensive contributions to a millionth of a run.

He grades out better in the corners than in CF, which makes sense. But it doesn't necessarily make any sense that he should be so much better in LF than in RF, and furthermore, the typical difference in value between corner OF and CF is about 10 runs per 150G, and the differences here are much larger than that.

So what I propose is to suppose that Span is 10 runs worse in CF than in the corners (and that he is equally good in each corner) and combine the data under those assumptions. This basically gives us:

-13.8 UZR/150 G, 83 G -- CF
+6.7 UZR/150G, 55 G -- LF data normalized to CF
-4.2 UZR/150G, 117 G -- RF data normalized to CF
---------------------------------------------------------------
-8.5 UZR/150G, 255 G -- All data normalized to CF

Then, because it's still a small sample size, we should probably figure out a way to regress the data towards the mean. To do that we have to figure out what mean we are regressing towards. I would say that it's reasonable to regress Span's data to that of an average-fielding CF. Scouting-wise, no one seems to think he looks awful in CF (except perhaps in comparison to Gomez, who is well above average), and that seems like reason enough to regress him towards an average center fielder.

Usually the number that UZR proponents throw around is that you need three seasons of UZR data to make a good prediction for the next year's performance. I'll take 3 years to mean 450 games. So all we'll do here to do the regression is assume that in addition to the 255 games that he did play, Span played 195 games (the difference between 450 and 255) at exactly league average. That gives us:

-8.5 UZR/150G, 255 G, -14.5 UZR
+0.0 UZR/150G, 195 G, 0.0 UZR
------------------------------------------
-4.8 UZR/150G, 450 G, -14.5 UZR

Overall, then, I guess I see Span as about 5 runs below an average center fielder over the course of a full season and 5 runs above an average corner outfielder over the course of a full season. He could prove me wrong (or he could improve or regress) next year, but I think that's a good estimate of where he's at right now.

2009 Century Mark game: Bad Guys at Twins

spookymilk July 27, 2009, at 6:00 pm 340 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , , , ,

Today, the Twins basically do what they're always doing during my game logs: try to reach .500, and try to do it while winning on Monday for the second time.

Encouraging stat of the day: Morneau, Morneau and Span yesterday brought the Twins' homer total to 111, which is good enough to tie the mark they reached in 2008.  If "wasting history" is an exaggeration, then dude, it can't be by much.  Having a Twins team with power - something we've all wanted for years - and not winning is a bit deflating, even though we all know we're dealing with a pretty uninspiring pitching staff.

Other encouraging thing of the day: it's the White Sox at home, which is usually a recipe for success, since the Metrodome has magical powers that Chicago teams are woefully unprepared to withstand.

John Danks 8-6, 3.98 ERA, 103.1 IP, 92 K - 40 BB, 4.23 xFIP

Glen Perkins 5-6, 5.55 ERA, 84.1 IP, 40 K - 20 BB, 4.91 xFIP

Perkins is just one of the starters who's struggling because he doesn't strike anyone out, though his various owies are a big contributor.

Tonight the Twins start the kind of series that they've been able to dominate in the past in this building, and they can leapfrog the White Sox with a sweep and gain ground on the Tigers, who have to visit Texas.  Though the last week was devastating, the Twins ended up in the same spot as they were in when the road trip started, and this division is still plenty winnable.  However, if the Twins are going to win it, this is the kind of series they absolutely need to keep taking.

Go Twins!

Mugshot Purgatory: Centerfielders and Orioles

AMR May 6, 2009, at 8:30 am 7 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , ,

Last year, I had all but written off Denard "Wing" Span as a high draft-pick washout. I am very happy to be wrong about that.
span_denard_2009span_denard_2008aaaspan_denard_2008span_denard_2007span_denard_2006span_denard_2002hs
(Span '09, '08AAA, '08, '07, '06, '02)
'02 is a high-school picture that I found on a pre-draft scouting website. Looks like he was not happy in Rochester.

Click here to continue reading Mugshot Purgatory: Centerfielders and Orioles...

Six Word Player Evaluations: Denard Span

SBG March 16, 2009, at 3:50 am 16 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Our six word player evaluations continues with Denard Span. Dino burst onto the scene last year from out of nowhere or as from out of nowhere as a former #1 pick can. Still, though, I have my doubts about the guy (but, I'm certainly rooting for him), even as I admit that there is a lot to like about his game, especially when he has his glove on. So, here's my attempt.

Candidate for sophomore slump. Hope not.

The winner of the Torii Hunter contest was actually technically only five words. Or was it five words plus 30? Anyway, the winner is Will Young's "Always wanted to play in ________". Second was brianS's offering of "Team: No "I". Torii has two." Third goes to "Gomez more fun, less back stabby".

Today's poll is on Delmon Young.

Select your Favorite Delmon Young Six Word Evaluations (Max 5)

  • Don't Tell Will, but he's Young -- 10%
  • Are you wearing roller skates, Delmon? -- 4%
  • Projects as good as Frank Robinson -- 8%
  • Definitely thirty home runs a year -- 2%
  • Ridiculous projections unlikely to come true -- 10%
  • Skating on turf ain't so easy. -- 6%
  • CAN rollerskate in a buffalo herd. -- 2%
  • Ad: "Dude, you're getting a Delmon!" -- 2%
  • Yeah, he's got Joe Nathan's back. -- 10%
  • "Rock, Paper, Scissors" odd man out. -- 2%
  • "You're getting a Delmon!" Dude: "Crap." -- 14%
  • Glovework more wince inducing than proctologist's -- 30%
  • Nobody doubts his power and talent -- 14%
  • Can't eat or drink processed carbs -- 10%
  • First pitch swing -- It's called placement! -- 18%
  • Delmon and Devil both wear Prada. -- 2%
  • Umpire: "Ouch! Was that a bat?" -- 14%
  • Carl Crawford, Delmon Young: Ugly Divorce -- 2%
  • Pull it, you aren't freaking Punto. -- 20%
  • Flyball routes like Bugs to Miami. -- 10%
  • Family baseball royalty? They eat cake! -- 4%
  • Body like Rottweiler. Feet like chihuahua. -- 18%
  • Projections say he's amazing. He's not. -- 12%
  • Torii, without the defense or power. -- 8%
  • Starting pitchers and shortstops are overrated. -- 8%
  • Well, not as fat as Dmitri -- 18%
  • Frank Robinson? You must be joking! -- 6%
  • Won't wear shorts to the beach. -- 2%
  • Surly's alright. Just hit for power. -- 10%
  • Not pretty, but a great personality! -- 4%
  • Flyball to left...um, Delmon? Where...? -- 10%
  • I fell: Inside the park homer -- 10%
  • Listen to dad, not to Vavra -- 20%
  • Better than Cuddyer; no matter what -- 6%
  • See Delmon hit 25 homers soon -- -226%

Total Voters: 50

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Cup of Coffee: July 29, 2008

SBG July 29, 2008, at 6:00 am 51 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

The Twins pounded the White Sox 7-0 to start a four game series with the AL Central leaders. It's nice to see a couple of balls go over the fence, including one from Denard Span. Span's gonna make it tough for the Twins to take him out of the lineup. I'd like to see him get a couple of starts in center field while Carlos Gomez recovers from his injury (I know, he got an at bat last night and scored a run). Plus, any time the Twins beat Mark Buehrle, it's good day, even if Dread Pirate Will Young loves Mark (I'm ducking!).

Leadoff Hitters/Displaced Center Fielders

ubelmann July 21, 2008, at 9:36 pm 2 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

AVG/OBP/SLG, since May 1st
.245/.287/.341 -- Carlos Gomez
.257/.312/.341 -- Jacoby Ellsbury

Games/Games hitting leadoff, July
15/15 -- Carlos Gomez
16/16 -- Jacoby Ellsbury

It's frustrating that Gomez isn't hitting, but it's not like the Twins are the only team making decisions like keeping a struggling rookie in the leadoff spot. If he keeps struggling and the Twins start losing, Gardy will make a move. It won't really be a big deal either way, though.

Also, how about this:

.262/.332/.363 -- Jacoby Ellsbury, Age 24
.300/.387/.408 -- Denard Span, Age 24

Span's line is a weighted average of his major league line and the Major League Equivalent of his minor league stats. Ellsbury certainly had a better minor league career on the surface, but he was older and more refined when the Red Sox drafted him. Span walked in 8.8% of his minor league PA, and Ellsbury walked in 9.6% of his minor league PA. Neither player has significant power, and both guys can hit for high average. The difference between Span and Ellsbury is not that large.

But, Denard, if you are reading this, keep working hard--you still suck.