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Fun with Upper Deck: 2008 Box Score Memories: 29 June 2007


2008 Upper Deck A Piece of History Box Score Memories #BSM-34 Mauer [Jersey Gold 13/75]


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2009 Game 163: Tigers @ Twins

Rick Porcello (4.59 xFIP)

@

Scott Baker (4.39 xFIP)

The Minnesota Twins are going to win this game.

No really, they are.  I don't mean this in a New Guy kind of way as much as I mean it in a CAPS LOCK GUY kind of way. Say it with me; the Minnesota Twins are going to win this game.

The 2009 season has been, well for lack of a better term, a real roller coaster ride. Between the constant mediocrity, the other-worldliness of Joe Mauer, the injuries, Kubel's emergence, Matt Tolbert, Blackburn's supposed deal with the devil, Nick Punto, and elmOn finally earning the "O" in his name during the last week of the season.  This year has been as strange as any year I have been a Twins fan-- expect maybe last year.  Either way, I feel a peculiar attachment to this team for exactly that reason.

The Minnesota Twins are going to win this game.

In my opinion, the main difference between 2009 and 2008 is this year I had no expectations.  At no time before Detroit series last week did I have any real belief that the Twins had a chance at this division. Sure I kept watching but it was more because I love baseball than any delusional belief of Minnesota belonging in the same conversation with teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels. I watched this season because I love baseball and enjoyed watching Joe Mauer become Johnny Bench with average.  Whereas last year the only reason I didn't say "GOSO" with conviction after every loss was because I didn't want to agree with that son of a gun Stat Freak 101.  Because of that I have a certain calmness that has overtaken me this past week.

The Minnesota Twins are going to win this game.

Last night I went out to visit my girlfriend who waitresses at a local bar.  I walked up to the bar, took a seat, and would you believe I found myself next to someone who was extolling the virtues of Joe Mauer as the American League MVP. Granted, he did tell me that Mark Teixeria should come in second place because his defense was worth 12 wins to the Yankees but it made me feel good never the less. On my way out of the bar he told me how he was rooting for me and he hoped the Twins kept Mauer.

The Minnesota Twins are going to win this game.

It is funny being a Twins fan who has no real connection to the Twin Cities. People are always asking you why you became a Twins fan or beyond that how did you keep rooting for a team when they were so lousy during the mid to late 90's. They say it would have been easy to become a Yankees fan and no one would have thought twice.  I often tell them anecdotes about how an impressionable 8 year old FTLT fell in love with Jack Morris and Kirby Puckett; Kent Hrbek and Chili Davis; Shane Mack and Scott Erickson.  They smile and say good for you in a way that might be condescending but I can't really tell; nor do I really care.

The Minnesota Twins are going to win this game.

A friend of mine is in negotiations to buy a local soccer club.  Yesterday he had a meeting with the Buffalo public school system and if it went well he will be able to use a local high school free of charge if he agrees to have the team tutor inner city at risk youths on how to play soccer.  He sent me a text message asking me to wish him good luck. I responded "If the Twins can come back from 3 back with 4 to play anything is possible".  I just heard from him and he messaged me "Twins win".

The Minnesota Twins are going to win this game.

The question most asked of me by my baseball friends since Sunday is "even if the Twins win Tuesday do you really think that they are going to beat the Yankees?".  I look down at my feet, smile, and let out a small laugh before I ask them if it really matters.  I have gotten to enjoy a pennant race one way or another.  I have had playoff baseball for the past 7 days.   Even if Minnesota loses to Detroit tonight I will have gotten to enjoy my greatest joy in life; meaningful October baseball.

In reverse jinx fashion, the Minnesota Twins are going to win this game.

I have gotten to watch Joe Mauer night in and night out for the last 5 months.  I have gotten to see Eric Hinkse reincarnated for the past 6 months.  I have gotten to sit in front of my computer for 6 months, more nights than not, discussing music, beer, and baseball with my 20 best friends I have never met (and cheaptoy).  If you call that losing I question what winning really means. Thanks again to SBG for giving us all a place where we can stand up on our couches and say in unison:

We are going to win this game.

This team could be your life.

2009 Game 159: Us vs. Them, win or go home cryin’

Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough... the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go!

What the f#*@ happened to the Nation I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? This could be the greatest night of our lives, but you're gonna let it be the worst. "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you New Guy, we might get in trouble." Well just kiss my @ss from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Leyland, he's a dead man! Verlander, dead! Polanco ...

Dead! New Guy's right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. Now we could do it with conventional weapons that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.

It starts here:

12:05 start.
Pitching matchup:
Scottie "Last Hope" Baker for Our Boys. Since the A-S break: 233/281/372, 75:22 K:BB, 3.39 ERA in 87 2/3 innings
Nate "Suck" Robertson for Detroilet. Since the break: 284/379/375, 16:14 K:BB, 3.57 ERA in 22 2/3 innings. But he's a lefty, so he probably will be wearing a Kryptonite necklace.

Go get 'em, boys.

2009 Game 157: Twins @ Tigers

Brian "New Sensation" Duensing

versus

Justin "Best Before 126 Pitches" Verlander

Wait a minute, we have to play another game today?  Holy heck.  Here are a couple of quick notes because, honestly, I am having a hard time typing anything besides "WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOHHHHH!!!!!" right now

  • Justin Verlander has 256 strikeouts coming into this game.  For a reference point, Johan Santana eclipsed that number once in his career.
  • The Tigers have a losing record on Tuesdays this season.  The Twins do not.
  • There have been 12 players in American League history to lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG in one season.  10 of them are in the Hall of Fame.
  • Thanks to 7 strong innings from Nick Blackburn the Twins bullpen combined to throw only 32 pitchers in the first  game of today's doubleheader.  Of the three, the only pitcher I would be surprised to see tonight is Nathan.  Then again, he hadn't pitched since last Wednesday so it is a possibility.

And now, because I really just want to look, here is a sampling of comments from the Strib during their game log today:

Steve H says:

September 29th, 2009 at 9:34 am

First

Twins Rule says:

September 29th, 2009 at 11:37 am

Thanks for choking Blackburn. You bum. Note to Bill Smith: WE NEED STARTING PITCHING.

SweetOne says:

September 29th, 2009 at 12:51 pm

Twins trying to manufacture another run. At least we finally have somebody who can lay down a sac bunt.

Mauer Power says:

September 29th, 2009 at 1:22 pm

Redmond could pinch hit. Buscher is the emergency catcher

romer says:

September 29th, 2009 at 1:24 pm

Gardy is a genious.

Nick34 says:

September 29th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

Tolbert is great at bunting.

T says:

September 29th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

BIGGEST BUNT OF THE YEAR!

GO PUNTO!

heetcpa says:

September 29th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

Who votes for a squeeze? Anyone?

[editor's note: I could not find a comment from heetcpa taking back this statement]

h2oface says:

September 29th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

we are soooooo screwed.

Fair Weather Fan Formerly known as Not so Original Kevin says:

September 29th, 2009 at 1:44 pm

I always knew the Twins would win todays game, I just knew it!

Fair Weather Fan Formerly known as Not so Original Kevin says:

September 29th, 2009 at 1:56 pm

for NINE friggin innings, Twins pitchers give up ONE friggin run

Nathan comes in and Nathan cant get ONE OUT without giving up a run

Camden says:

September 29th, 2009 at 2:25 pm

Post:

Here is some upside Tigers fans. Lets say the Twins do win the AL Central. Won’t it be fun to watch them get their *** kicked by the Yankees?

Reply:

No. I will not be watching. This is the Tigers division, it has been all year, I will not watch the Twins bang my wife, that’s what them taking the divsion would feel like. Banging my wife.

Hey guys, I am really glad that I found this website.  Let's take this one tonight and have sex with Camden's wife!!

I hate the Twins for flirting with her. “

With this possibly being my last game log of the year I just wanted to thank everyone for another super awesome and fun season.  Now that I have gotten the jinx out of the way, let's win tonight and then go and have sex with Camden's wife!

Game 156 (this time, with feeeeewing): Twins at Tigers

(Note: I scheduled this last night shortly after the game was called, simply cutting and pasting last night's non-game log.  In the event the pitching matchups get effed, sorry for the lack of relevance)

 

Well, here we are.  My final game log, barring a (very possible) one game playoff.

It doesn't seem right that the Twins could lead the season series 9-5, clinch the season series with just one win, but still fall way short of the division.  But here we are, needing three or four wins from a team we've beaten up on so far.

Three or four wins for the Tigers will clinch the division for them, and a split will probably do enough damage to get the job done.  Three Twins wins will tie, and a Twins sweep would probably get the job done for the hometown nine.  The pitching matchups seem to favor the Twins in the final two games, and the Tigers easily in tomorrow's Duensing-Verlander tilt.  Tonight, one of the greatest young arms to come along in years will appear.  So will Rick Porcello!

Nick Blackburn 11-11, 4.18 ERA, 4.85 xFIP, 197.2 IP, 89 K, 40 BB
Rick Porcello 14-9, 4.14 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, 158.2 IP, 80 K, 49 BB

I have a lot of fun with Ol' Blackie, but really, the two pitchers aren't markedly dissimilar at this stage, and Blackburn does seem to come up with his best results when there's something big on the line (run support notwithstanding).  Certainly, Blackburn will have to be good tonight.  I don't want to get all StatFreak/national media on you and call this a "must win," but if the Twins lose the opener while staring Justin Verlander in the face, this could get messy in a rush.

The Twins' offense has clicked exceptionally well of late when not facing one of the world's best pitchers, and they need to click tonight.  Porcello is a righty, but has almost no platoon split.  Rather than analyze it further, I'll just hope the guy's hung over or tired or in a bad mood.

Go Twins!  Go nice weather!

2009 Game 156: Twins at Tigers

Well, here we are.  My final game log, barring a (very possible) one game playoff.

It doesn't seem right that the Twins could lead the season series 9-5, clinch the season series with just one win, but still fall way short of the division.  But here we are, needing three or four wins from a team we've beaten up on so far.

Three or four wins for the Tigers will clinch the division for them, and a split will probably do enough damage to get the job done.  Three Twins wins will tie, and a Twins sweep would probably get the job done for the hometown nine.  The pitching matchups seem to favor the Twins in the final two games, and the Tigers easily in tomorrow's Duensing-Verlander tilt.  Tonight, one of the greatest young arms to come along in years will appear.  So will Rick Porcello!

Nick Blackburn 11-11, 4.18 ERA, 4.85 xFIP, 197.2 IP, 89 K, 40 BB
Rick Porcello 14-9, 4.14 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, 158.2 IP, 80 K, 49 BB

I have a lot of fun with Ol' Blackie, but really, the two pitchers aren't markedly dissimilar at this stage, and Blackburn does seem to come up with his best results when there's something big on the line (run support notwithstanding).  Certainly, Blackburn will have to be good tonight.  I don't want to get all StatFreak/national media on you and call this a "must win," but if the Twins lose the opener while staring Justin Verlander in the face, this could get messy in a rush.

The Twins' offense has clicked exceptionally well of late when not facing one of the world's best pitchers, and they need to click tonight.  Porcello is a righty, but has almost no platoon split.  Rather than analyze it further, I'll just hope the guy's hung over or tired or in a bad mood.

Go Twins!  Go nice weather!

Twins, Tigers, Tops of the Rotation

I feel like I keep hearing about how neither the Twins or the Tigers are very good, but that the Tigers are threats in the post-season because of how great the top of their rotation is. I'm not sure that I really buy that. To wit:

2.93 FIP, 3.42 xFIP, 3.53 tRA -- Justin Verlander

3.94 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, 4.28 tRA -- Scott Baker
3.96 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 4.43 tRA -- Carl Pavano

4.24 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, 4.70 tRA -- Edwin Jackson
4.44 FIP, 4.84 xFIP, 4.79 tRA -- Nick Blackburn

4.86 FIP, 4.49 xFIP, 5.46 tRA -- Rick Porcello

By every measure, Justin Verlander has been much better than any pitcher the Twins have had this year--you'll get no argument from me there. However, Baker and Pavano have both been better than Jackson and Porcello this year, and there's a reasonable argument that Nick Blackburn has been about as good as Jackson and much better than Porcello has been this year.

As far as the top 3 pitchers in the current rotations go, Verlander probably gives the Tigers an edge over the Twins, but I don't think it's an especially huge edge. (After all, how many times was Santana supposed to be a huge weapon for the Twins in the postseason?)

You Chose Me And You Were Wrong And That’s Why I Write Such Good Songs

It's 12:14am CT, so this is going to sound like second-guessing it, but I was first-guessing this the whole way along. With Punto leading off the 8th inning, Jimmy Leyland had Bobby Seay and Brandon Lyon warming in the bullpen. Verlander was heading into the inning with ~110 pitches or so, and there had been action in the Tigers' bullpen even while Verlander was pitching in the 7th.

The way the lineup was set, Verlander and Leyland were looking at Punto (S), Span (L), Cabbie (R), Mauer (L), Kubel (L). Going into that inning, I confidently told my friend, "there's no way Verlander pitches to Mauer." And why should he? Verlander had been pitching a great game, Mauer and Kubel are both much worse against left-handed pitching, Verlander had already thrown a ton of pitches and had to be tiring (at least somewhat), and Mauer rocked Verlander for an absolute rocket home run in the first inning.

So Punto immediately Buschered* to start the eighth. Not exactly encouraging. (Had Punto reached base, would Leyland have gone to Seay? At the time, I was thinking that might be the philosophy behind having Seay ready in the 'pen--if Verlander lets Punto on, put in the LOOGY for the LRLL stretch, if Verlander gets Punto, see if you can squeeze some more out of Verlander.) Then Span hits a solid single. Here, I can still see keeping Verlander in. Verlander has the platoon advantage on Cabbie, and Cabrera's not a good hitter. See if Verlander can get the DP, or a K, or something else positive.

*Struck out on three pitches.

Then, of course, Cabbie hit a routine fly ball to left field. Right in the vicinity of Don Kelly, Defensive Replacement. Span had already gone halfway to second base and was even taking a step or two back towards first base when Kelly did a little jig in left field, muffed the catch, and kept the Twins' hope alive. Maybe the official scorekeeper called it a double, figuring that Don Kelly can't be expected to deal with the big, bad banks of lights (perhaps Kelly would prefer playing in the dark?), but I doubt that's going to help Don Kelly, Defensive Replacement, sleep better tonight. The Dome roared a loud playoff roar and the Twins were right back in the game.

So Skipper Leyland trots out to Verlander (wheezing his way there, no doubt) and I figure that Leyland has two options:

1) Pull Verlander right then and there, and let Bobby Seay intentionally walk Mauer and take his chances with the Bell Fourche Bomber

2) Have Verlander intentionally walk Mauer, and bring in Bobby Seay to face the Bell Fourche Bomber

Never did it cross my mind that Leyland might really think about letting Kubel face a fatigued Verlander--over 120 pitches at this point--for the fourth time in the game with the bases loaded. At that point, Kubel could simply have hit a long fly ball and seriously damaged the Tigers' chances of winning the game. Kubel is so, so much worse against left-handed pitchers, it's just not worth taking the risk of keeping Verlander in the game, even though:

A) Verlander had been pitching a great game
B) Verlander had more or less "earned" two outs that inning, allowing just one solid hit

In the same way that Gretsky skated to where the puck was going to be, not where the puck had been, a good manager must manage for how his players will play in the future, not how they have played in the past. Verlander had done well that day, but in my estimation, could not have reasonably be expected to do well in that situation.

Still, many managerial miscues go unpunished, and Verlander could well have wriggled himself out of the jam. But as luck would have it, the Dude blooped a little blip over wee Brandon Inge as DSPAN2 and Cabbie sprinted home no more than five feet from one another. And that was it for Justin Verlander, who had still only given up one solid hit that inning.

Cuddyer then gave Joe Nathan the day off with a three-run blast off of Brandon Lyon, and the rest of the game was rather uneventful.


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2009 Game 147: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Time: 7:10 CDT
MLB.tv and radio

Starters:
Rick Porcello (13-8, 4.21; 4.83 FIP, 5.42 tRA)
vs
Brian Duensing (3-1, 3.53; 3.93 FIP, 3.73 tRA)

Porcello logged 125 innings last year in the minors; so far this year he has 147.2 innings. Thus, I estimate that in the eighth inning, his arm should combust. I doubt he'll pitch more than seven innings though, sparing him for another five days. Porcello likely will start two more games in the regular season and one in the postseason, putting him ~45-50 innings above last year. Something for Leyland to keep in mind.

Through Thursday, Detroit has allowed as many runs as they have scored. The Twins are +17. The Tigers are 3-7 over the last ten games while the Twins are a marginally better 6-4.


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2009 Game 131: Worst Guys at Minnesota Twins

At about this time every year, I start obsessing over the standings.  The first teams (in this case, the Orioles and Nationals) are about to fall statistically from division contention and in general, the races are clearing up.  This year, the races are clearer than ever, with no particularly close divisional races.

In the NL, the Rockies and Giants are tied for the Wild Card lead and are trailed by 3.5 games by both the Braves and Marlins.  The Red Sox lead the AL Wild Card race by the same 3.5 over the Rangers.  The closest divisional race, however, is our own (and it looks like it may get a little closer, because as I type this sentence, the Rays lead the Tigers and their amazing late-season acquisition Jarrod Washburn by six runs, still in the first inning.  Yay!).

The best news of all is the remaining schedule for our guys, presented chronologically:

HOME: CWS (3)
ROAD: CLE (3), TOR (4)
HOME: OAK (3), CLE (3), DET (3)
ROAD: CWS (3), KCR (3), DET (4)
HOME: KCR (3)

Not all of it is "easy," exactly, but the series that aren't at least manage to put the Twins' destiny into their own hands for the most part.  The Toronto series stands out as the toughest thing there, but at least it's followed by a nice homestand.  Soooo...howzabout them Tigers (yes, I realize the White Sox are certainly not irrelevant yet, but for our purposes here I'll just include the team we're chasing).

HOME: TBR (1), CLE (3)
ROAD: TBR (3), KCR (3)
HOME: TOR (4), KCR (3)
ROAD: MIN (3), CLE (3), CWS (3)
HOME: MIN (4), CWS (3)

Okay, so granted, it isn't much tougher and doesn't stand out as the kind of schedule that will cost a fisrt-place team a 4.5 game lead, but if you're the team that's chasing, it's those seven head-to-head games that you have to live for.

Today, Nick Blackburn pitches for what seems like the fiftieth time on a Monday this season (note that the Twins have a horrible Monday record...just sayin').

Nick Blackburn 8-9, 4.29 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 161.2 IP, 68 K, 38 BB
Gavin Floyd 10-8, 3.95 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, 171 IP, 145 K, 56 BB

Floyd has always struck me as the White Sox's Blackburn.  Well, he obviously manages to strike more guys out, but for the most part he pitches poorly, leaves a lot of guys on base (70.4% to Blackburn's 71%) and has benefitted from a low HR/flyball rate (10.9% for both).  Both are guys with decent results but both are just powder kegs waiting to explode.  I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them get shelled tonight.  Floyd's a righty, so let's say it's going to be him, alright?  Plus, the coin flip dictated that this series will be in Minneapolis.  It's stupid that such important games would be decided by coin flip, but it's my understanding that this is how sports work.

This might be a lot of words to spend on a team whose playoff hopes are fairly slim, but this thing isn't over yet, and with any luck, I'll be spending a similar amount of words on them a week from now.  Go Twins!

2009 Game 110: Twins at Tiggers

Your pinch-hitter today: the immortal Gates bS!

The Real Gates was one of the best PH in Major League history. Playing his whole career for the Tiggers, he had 107 career PH. In his best season, 1968, he hit .450 as a pinch hitter and 370/442/685 overall (234 OPS+, 34 for 92 with 4:12 K:BB and 15 XBH).

Why couldn't the guy get more PT, you ask? Well, Gates was not exactly a model athlete. He was a big, slow guy, ostensibly a corner OFer (and sometime 1b), stuck behind a 1968 starting OF of Willie Horton (not THAT Willie Horton; 165 OPS+, 36 HR), Mickey Stanley and Jim Northrup (129 OPS+), plus a 33-year old Al Kaline (146 OPS+), and starting 1b Norm Cash (145 OPS+). As a team, the World Champion Tigers hit only 235/307/385 (107 OPS+), thanks to perhaps the worst-hitting left-side of an infield in modern history. Starting SS Ray Oyler "hit" 135/213/186 (20 OPS+) and starting 3b Don Wert "hit" 200/258/299 (67 OPS+). The backup SSs, Tom Matchick and Dick Tracewski, had OPS+ of 60 and 43, respectively. Eddie Matthews, who should have been the starting 3b (despite being a creaky 36), played only 31 games (57 PA) and hit 212/281/385 (98 OPS+ in the Year of the Pitcher). He must have been hurt, as he didn't play at all between June 5 and Sept. 2 -- and he retired after the season.

There may have been some broader concerns about ol' Gates' focus, as illustrated by this story from The Repository:

On August 7, 1968, Brown made history. He wasn't in the starting lineup, so he decided to grab two hot dogs from the clubhouse. He was ordered by manager Mayo Smith to pinch hit. He stuffed the hot dogs in his jersey to hide them from his manager.

"I always wanted to get a hit every time I went to the plate. But this was one time I didn't want to get a hit. I'll be damned if I didn't smack one in the gap and I had to slide into second—head first, no less. I was safe with a double. But when I stoop up, I had mustard and ketchup and smashed hot dogs and buns all over me.

"The fielders took one look at me, turned their backs and damned near busted a gut laughing at me. My teammates in the dugout went crazy." After fining Brown $100, Smith said, "What the hell were you doing eating on the bench in the first place?" Brown: "I decided to tell him the truth. I said, 'I was hungry. Besides, where else can you eat a hot dog and have the best seat in the house'"

Oh, yea. There's a game today. The pitching matchup features Carl Pavano. For the first time, I can reveal BS's interview with Carl Pavano before working out the trade with Cleveland.

Those of you studying for the CPA exam, take heed.

Of course, Pavano has been hired as a "Tiger tamer." So that's gonna have to get fixed.

On the other side, Detroilet brings speed-balling right-hander Justin Verlander to the fore. What's that you say? The Twins' best hitters are left-handed? Well, how the heck about that! Joe Mauer is 11 for 27 (.407) against Verlander; Justin Morneau is 9 for 28 (.321) with four doubles and two homers. The Dude is 5-15 with two doubles.

All this points to Verlander striking out about 18 on his way to a shutout.

2009 Game 109: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Time: 6:05 CDT
TV: FSN HD
MLB.tv and radio

Starters:
Anthony Swarzak (3-4, 4.25; 4.20 FIP, 101 tRA+)
vs
Armando Galarraga (5-10, 5.22; 5.23 FIP, 65 tRA+)

First, since tomorrow USSM attacksvisits Safeco, a quick update on the "waste of resources": Kubel holds at 2.2 WAR with Hinske at 0.7 WAR. That's a +$7.15 million over this year's salary, or 2.6 times more. Meanwhile, Hinske is +$1.5 million over or double his salary. This ignores any performance bonuses (which fangraphs projects Kubel to miss, I don't know what Hinske's marks are).

The first thing I find interesting is how closely each starter's FIP matches his ERA. Swarzak has a depressing K/BB of 1.59, though Galarraga one-ups him with a 1.52 K/BB. Thus, my prediction for this game is it will be a low-scoring one. Wait, why are you laughing at me? Fine, it'll be a slugfest. Thankfully we've got tigger-killer Carl Pavano now who can relieve Swarzak and then befuddle the Tigers for the rest of the game.

Washburn to Tigers

Game Over. Season Over. Franchise Over. Begin End of Days. [/strib comments]

Here's one take from Lookout Landing. I don't know much about French, but glancing at his minor league stats, he looks roughly equal in value to a 23-year-old Glen Perkins. Robles is probably destined to become a LOOGY.

The trade has rather predictably crashed USS Mariner, but I'm sure there will be a take on the trade there soon. Actually, here's Dave Cameron's take on fangraphs.

The Tigers probably wouldn't feel the need to pay so much for Washburn had they not traded away Jair Jurrjens for a dilapidated Edgar Renteria.

My take is that this will improve the Tigers this year, but even if they win the division, they'll probably just get whipped by the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels, so I don't really see the point of giving away 5-6 years of a back-end starter and a fairly intriguing lefty on top of that. For the Twins to have offered a comparable package, they probably would have had to offer Perkins himself plus, I don't know, probably someone like David Bromberg from Fort Myers.

Quick comparison:
9.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 -- Bromberg
9.9 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 -- Robles

So, would you want the Twins to trade Perkins and Bromberg for two months of Jarrod Washburn?

2009 Century Mark game: Bad Guys at Twins

Today, the Twins basically do what they're always doing during my game logs: try to reach .500, and try to do it while winning on Monday for the second time.

Encouraging stat of the day: Morneau, Morneau and Span yesterday brought the Twins' homer total to 111, which is good enough to tie the mark they reached in 2008.  If "wasting history" is an exaggeration, then dude, it can't be by much.  Having a Twins team with power - something we've all wanted for years - and not winning is a bit deflating, even though we all know we're dealing with a pretty uninspiring pitching staff.

Other encouraging thing of the day: it's the White Sox at home, which is usually a recipe for success, since the Metrodome has magical powers that Chicago teams are woefully unprepared to withstand.

John Danks 8-6, 3.98 ERA, 103.1 IP, 92 K - 40 BB, 4.23 xFIP

Glen Perkins 5-6, 5.55 ERA, 84.1 IP, 40 K - 20 BB, 4.91 xFIP

Perkins is just one of the starters who's struggling because he doesn't strike anyone out, though his various owies are a big contributor.

Tonight the Twins start the kind of series that they've been able to dominate in the past in this building, and they can leapfrog the White Sox with a sweep and gain ground on the Tigers, who have to visit Texas.  Though the last week was devastating, the Twins ended up in the same spot as they were in when the road trip started, and this division is still plenty winnable.  However, if the Twins are going to win it, this is the kind of series they absolutely need to keep taking.

Go Twins!

2009 Twins Game 82: Detroit @ Minnesota

I'm off in ND, visiting with family and hopefully, we're enjoying some beautiful weather. The Twins have kind of limped through the first half of the season sitting barely above .500. (I'm writing this before Friday's game as I'm probably not going to have access to The Internets while I'm in ND.)

Let's see where the Twins have been at the halfway point of the season in the 2000s:

2008: 44-37, 1.0 GB
2007: 42-39, 7.5 GB
2006: 46-35, 9.0 GB
2005: 46-35, 9.5 GB
2004: 44-37, 0.5 GA
2003: 43-38, 0.5 GA
2002: 45-36, 5.0 GA
2001: 50-31, 3.0 GA
2000: 36-45, 15.0 GB

So, this is pretty much the worst first half for the Twins since 2000, in terms of record (or tied with 2007, if the Twins won on Friday). Still though, this first half isn't that much worse than a lot of those years. Other than the ZOMG, we are playing out of our freaking minds first half in 2001, the Twins have been within 42 and 46 wins at this point every year. So, there's nothing particularly unusual about where we are, recordwise.

Prior to Wednesday's results, the Twins are projected to win 84.0 games by Baseball Prospectus's 3rd Order win projections and have a 38% chance to make the post season. The Tigers project to 84.7 wins. In other words, this division is there for the taking.