The WGOM

I was driving down the road from Eagan (which the Headquarters of The WGOM, in case you haven't heard) to the beautiful city of Winona yesterday afternoon when the thought struck me, man I hate making this drive. No, that wasn't it, although there's some truth to that, too. I thought, man, maybe Billy Smith just really played the Seattle Mariners big time. Yep, Jarrod Washburn is a pretty sucktastic pitcher and he's in no way one of the five best pitchers on this club (unless we traded about three of our guys to get him), but maybe he was really just blocking the White Sox.

Washburn and his 4.95 xFIP doesn't exactly look like anything much when lined up against the White Sox pitchers, either. He looked like even less of a deal for them last week before Jose Contreras got hurt. It's not inconceivable that the White Sox would be interested, especially since Contreras might be out most of next year, too, if he ever gets back. He almost makes sense in Chicago.

Plus, Billy tried to pry Adrian Beltre from the Mariners last month and he found out that they wanted the moon and the stars for Beltre, so there's pretty good evidence right there that they aren't (why not? because they are delusional) interested in a salary dump. Then, the Yankees made an offer for Washburn before the deadline that Seattle didn't take. It doesn't seem likely that they'd just dump him for nothing two weeks later. They are irrational, but it's quite possible that they are consistent -- they expect to fleece everyone the way that they got fleeced in the Bedard trade. They expect other teams to take their shit and "give them value" for it, as if reducing their payroll by $13 million isn't value.

Washburn himself was absolutely dying to come to the Twins. Just read this from Larry Stone, a Seattle beat writer:

If you wondered about Jarrod Washburn's reaction to not being traded, he wore it on his face as he walked into the clubhouse today. He did not look happy. And, it turned out, he wasn't. He said he found out yesterday about the possible Twins' trade about the same time he found out it wasn't happening.

"I had mixed emotions,'' he said. "I was happy and upset at the same time."

The happiness came from the possibility of being traded to the Twins, which was just about the top team on his list of possible destinations. His home, he said, is an hour and a half drive away.

"If the rumors are accurate, it's too bad,'' he said. "It would have been ideal. It would have been perfect. It would have gotten me to a place that's contending and it's in my own damn backyard.''

On the rumors that the Twins were offering Boof Bonser, Washburn said: "If that was the case, how much more do you think you're going to get? A young guy with a great arm who's cheap.''

What do you think the clubhouse is like in Seattle these days? Washburn is openly admitting he wants out and basically telling the front office, you fools, you got a great deal there and you turned it down!

A little more reading from Mr. Stone confirms that the Mariners are absolutely kidding themselves. Here's the general manager:

"In general, on the issue of dumping salaries, our goal here is to get better. Even back to the trade deadline, and moving forward, we want to get players back that will make us better now and in the future. Money can give you flexibility, but there's no guarantee you can turn that flexibility into anything.

"I've said all along, with players under our control that people are assuming we want to move, we'd like to get value back for them. We want to get the best deal we can get for them, now or later. Other deals may come along and develop into something larger, and even involve us eating some money to get players that make us better.''

On the issue of "no guarantee that can turn that flexibility into anything," the USS Mariner retorts

This off-season, at least one free agent pitcher who has superior numbers to Washburn will sign a one-year deal for under Washburn’s 2010 salary of $10m. And here, I mean numbers indicative of a pitcher’s ability:
* Strikeout rate
* Walk rate
* Line drive rate (and HR rate)
* Ground ball/fly ball split

I predict this year we’ll see at least one pitcher who is clearly superior enough to Washburn to make arguing moot, but here’s our specific criteria: at least 180 IP in 2008, K rate equal or better than Washburn’s, walk rate equal or better than Washburn, LD/HR rate equal or better than Washburn’s. They will sign a deal for one year for less than $10m. Bonus points for 2y under $10m.

I’ll make an additional secondary prediction: there will be at least one free agent hitter who signs a one-year deal for under $10m who would provide a +20 run overall upgrade at a Mariner position from this year, with offense measured by any reasonable advanced metric and defense by UZR, PMR, +/-, or any like decent defensive stat.

Yep, we weren't dealing with anybody smart here, and I'm going to hope that old Billy was crazy like a Fox.