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Small Sample Size and Left-Handed Hitters

ubelmann November 1, 2009, at 3:29 pm 5 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

vs. Yankees, 3 games through a 2009 playoff series:

1-14, 9 K, 0 BB -- Jason Kubel
2-13, 9 K, 0 BB -- Ryan Howard

Apparently getting hits against those Yankee lefties isn't as easy as it looks. Also, for your consideration:

.226/.310/.444 -- Ryan Howard vs. LHP, career
.240/.314/.356 -- Jason Kubel vs. LHP, career

So Howard has had better pop against lefties than Kubel, but has otherwise been just as inept.

2009 Game 109: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

sean August 7, 2009, at 5:00 pm 181 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Time: 6:05 CDT
TV: FSN HD
MLB.tv and radio

Starters:
Anthony Swarzak (3-4, 4.25; 4.20 FIP, 101 tRA+)
vs
Armando Galarraga (5-10, 5.22; 5.23 FIP, 65 tRA+)

First, since tomorrow USSM attacksvisits Safeco, a quick update on the "waste of resources": Kubel holds at 2.2 WAR with Hinske at 0.7 WAR. That's a +$7.15 million over this year's salary, or 2.6 times more. Meanwhile, Hinske is +$1.5 million over or double his salary. This ignores any performance bonuses (which fangraphs projects Kubel to miss, I don't know what Hinske's marks are).

The first thing I find interesting is how closely each starter's FIP matches his ERA. Swarzak has a depressing K/BB of 1.59, though Galarraga one-ups him with a 1.52 K/BB. Thus, my prediction for this game is it will be a low-scoring one. Wait, why are you laughing at me? Fine, it'll be a slugfest. Thankfully we've got tigger-killer Carl Pavano now who can relieve Swarzak and then befuddle the Tigers for the rest of the game.

2009 Game 103: Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins

sean July 31, 2009, at 6:00 pm 253 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Time: 7:10 CDT
TV: FSN HD
MLB.tv and radio

Starters:
Ervin Santana (3-6, 7.29; 71 tRA+, 5.36 FIP)
vs
Nick Blackburn (8-5, 3.75; 102 tRA+, 4.22 FIP)

Kubel has been worth 2.2 WAR this season, good for about $9.9 million. His total contract, assuming the Twins pick up his 2011 option, is worth $12.1 million. Doing the math, that comes to 2.7 WAR. 0.5 WAR to go in the "needless use of resources".

Ervin Santana is the reason the Twins avoided a sweep at Anaheim. His velocity is still down from last year and his fastball and changeup are getting clobbered. Here's to hoping the futility continues.

Except the opposing starter is none other than Nick Blackburn, whose deal has officially expired. His ERA is at least somewhat closer to his FIP, but I think it will still be some time until people realize he's average at best. He still does not have a strikeout after the All-Star break, dropping his K/9 rate to embarrassingly low levels. Consider this:

Player A: 3.35 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 44.5% GB%
Player B: 3.68 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, 46.0% GB%

Player B is Nick Blackburn. Player A is Livan Hernandez in 2008. 10 wins though!%#!

Mugshot Purgatory: Corner OFs and Rays

AMR May 29, 2009, at 8:30 am 10 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , , ,

Today, we start off with our two leftfielders (D-SPAN2 was considered a centerfielder for my purposes). Jason "the Dude" Kubel is typically the DH, while Delmon "_elm_n" Young has no D and no O.
kubel_jason_2009kubel_jason_2008kubel_jason_2007kubel_jason_2006
young_delmon_2009young_delmon_2008young_delmon_2007young_delmon_2006
(Kubel '09, '08, '07, '06; Young '09, '08, '07, '06)
I don't know how the Dude got his nickname. Could anyone fill me in? I don't know what's up with Del's 2008, it's clearly a photoshop, but I don't know of which year. And it's not like he was traded after '08 pictures were taken, or missed spring training.

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It sure beats having Tony Batista at third

ubelmann May 14, 2009, at 12:16 am 12 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

Not exactly a walk in the park

In hindsight, the Span triple kind of looks like the game giving us the finger. Summing up Lookout Landing style:

Biggest Contribution: Jason Kubel, +48.1%
Biggest Suckfest: Matt Guerrier, -38.2%
Most Important AB: Kubel HR off Zumaya, +38.3%
Most Important Pitch: Crain 2-out, run-scoring, tie-breaking balk, -32.0%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): -54.6%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +104.6%

So it's kind of like the pitchers lost the game, but the hitters got that win back and then won another game to finish the day out.

This Date in Twins History: April 9

socaltwinsfan April 9, 2009, at 2:01 am 9 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , ,
1987

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2000

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2006

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2007

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2008

 Dan Gladden's pinch-hit, two-run single caps the Twins' three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth inning in a 5-4 victory that completed a season-opening three-game sweep of the Oakland A's. The rally came against Jay Howell, who came in after Dennis Eckersley pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings. Eckersley didn't take over as the A's full-time closer until July in a switch that would propel him into the Hall of Fame.

The Twins beat the Royals, 13-7, as both teams each hit three consecutive home runs in the same game for the first time in major league history. Ron Coomer, Jacque Jones and Matt Lecroy connect consecutively in the sixth for Minnesota and Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye and Mike SweeneyHector Carrasco go back-to-back-to-back for Kansas City.

The Indians beat the Twins and Johan Santana 3-2 to complete a three-game sweep and drop the Twins to 1-5 on their season-opening five-game road trip. The Twins would go 95-61 the rest of the way to win the AL Central division on the final game of the season.

Justin Morneau hit a walkoff home run to lead off the bottom of the ninth inning off Brian Stokes in a 3-2 victory over Tampa Bay. Carlos Silva took a no-decision despite pitching 6 2/3 scoreless innings.

Jason Kubel had a grand slam and six RBIs and Brian Bass pitched four effective innings to earn his only major league save in a 12-5 victory over the White Sox on a cold night in Chicago.

Six Word Player Evaluations: Jason Kubel

SBG March 6, 2009, at 5:03 am 31 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

It's Friday, and it's time for a six word player evaluation. Who better to end the week with than Jason Kubel? Well, there's Mauer, Morneau, Kirby, but we've already done those. Anyway, let's give the dude a shot. Here's mine:

When in doubt, blame the Dude.

Add your favorite six word evaluations of Mr. Kubel. Please don't add more than four.

Yesterday's Francisco Liriano poll was a battle between two heavy hitters. The winner was Lucky Jim's "Backdoor slider nastier than White Castle's", barely edging out Beau's "Stop worrying and love the F-Bomb". Two excellent offerings! "That explosive slider exploded his elbow" came in third.

Today's poll is on Kirby Puckett. You can vote for up to FIVE entries.

Select your Favorite Kirby Puckett Six Word Evaluations (Max 5)

  • Unfortunately, he's glaucoma's biggest poster child. -- 1%
  • Great leaping catch! Bite me, Torii. -- 8%
  • Definitely not the fairy tale ending. -- 3%
  • 14 March 1960 - 6 March 2006 -- 5%
  • Often swung, missed; never at Hrbek. -- 3%
  • Never punched Meares in the clubhouse. -- 1%
  • Kirby in center: Kotsay, no homer. -- 5%
  • And we'll see you tomorrow night! -- 56%
  • "Puckett swings AND HITS A BLAST!" -- 21%
  • Now batting third...Kirrrr Beeee Puckett -- 51%
  • Best Twins centerfielder, ever. No doubt. -- 16%
  • Quite simply, the greatest Twin ever. -- 10%
  • Swung at everything and hit it. -- 16%
  • Liked every pitch, except THAT one. -- 6%
  • Opposing pitchers question their career choices. -- 3%
  • Pitcher Charlie Leibrandt was my bitch -- 2%
  • Playing baseball sure is fun, man -- 15%
  • Meeting Kirby was greatest childhood memory. -- 0%
  • Career cut short, still in hall. -- 3%
  • Puck Pack: cheeseburger, fries, and milkshake -- 8%
  • Chili told him not to bunt -- 5%
  • Hop on my back tonight, boys! -- 32%
  • August 30, 1987: What a game -- 0%
  • F--- the bunt, hit a homer! -- 7%
  • Had fun, lived large, dark ending. -- 6%
  • Thanks for the memories, big fella. -- 5%
  • Made Tom Kelly look awfully smart -- 4%
  • Who the hell is Torii Hunter? -- 3%
  • Big Stick, Big Buddha, Big Hops -- 5%
  • bunts and runs through first base -- 0%
  • Touching 'em all, somewhere over rainbow ... -- 5%
  • Touch 'em all. On field. Off. -- 9%
  • Red stone bathroom red light district? -- 0%
  • Three million was alot of money. -- 1%
  • Powered leg kick smiling squat body. -- 2%
  • Tomorrow is promised to no one. -- 6%
  • Lavelle and he, true Twins indeed! -- -223%

Total Voters: 96

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Fun with Upper Deck: 2008 Documentary, Game 68

Rhubarb_Runner January 29, 2009, at 5:30 am 3 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , ,

2008_682008 Documentary: Twins Game 68

Card #1968/MIN68


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Twins DH OPS by Year

ubelmann January 28, 2009, at 5:21 pm 4 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , ,

Apropos of the Kubel discussion in today's Cup of Coffee, when SBG said that an .887 OPS might be the best for a DH in club history (this seems possible to me, too), I figured I would look up the OPS at DH for the Twins in each year they've had a DH. (This will include all of the players at that position, but should give us a good idea of which years were the strongest.)

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Better Know A Citizen – Gutzon

Andrew November 24, 2008, at 10:00 am 21 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , , , , ,

ColbertName: Ben
SBG Moniker: Gutzon
Hometown: Minneapolis, MN
Town I Currently Live In: Minneapolis, MN
Profession: Student teaching/semipro brass musician/barista
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Positions: In order of competence - 3B, 2B, C
Greatest Career Achievement in Baseball/Softball/T-ball: Leading off and going 3 for 3 with two 2B, a walk, and four runs in my first Little League game. Career-wise, things went downhill from there.
Hobbies: Trombone, reading, baseball, tasty food and beverages
What are you known for around the WGOM? - I'm not sure what I have a reputation for...skulking around the game threads after games, maybe?
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Jason Kubel has hit left-handed pitching about as well as Jacque Jones

ubelmann July 20, 2008, at 2:17 am 7 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

.217/.305/.319 -- Jason Kubel vs. LHP, career
.230/.278/.350 -- Jacque Jones vs. LHP, career

Kubel's line is slightly less awful than Jacque's line, but both lines are still awful.

I like Jason Kubel. I think he can hit right-handed pitching and this team could use a cheap DH/OF to use against RHP. However, Kubel hasn't done anything to convince me that he's special, and most left-handed hitters have bigger platoon splits than right-handed hitters. (Even special hitters can have big platoon splits, though.)

It drove me mad when Gardy wouldn't platoon Jacque Jones, so I'm going to have to say that, at this point, I think it's reasonable to sit Kubel against LHP. If nothing else, it helps protect his knees even more and gives Gardy a good left-handed pinch hitter on the bench. Forcing the other team to burn a LOOGY on Kubel means one fewer LOOGY for them to use against Mauer and Morneau, and that has value, too.

Game 80: Milwaukee at Minnesota

ubelmann June 27, 2008, at 6:00 pm 202 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , , , , , , , ,

McClung vs. Blackburn

Blackburn looked pretty good at the convention, but I'm posting this a fair bit in advance so I can't be 100% sure he's going to make this start. His xFIP of 4.19 would look a little better in recent years gone by. This year, it makes him just a bit above average for a starting pitcher.

Team leaders and trailers in VORP as of June 23rd:

23.7 -- Prince Fielder
23.4 -- Ryan Braun
15.6 -- Corey Hart
13.5 -- Russell Branyan
10.5 -- Gabe Kapler

-1.4 -- Hernan Iribarren
-1.9 -- Jeff Suppan
-2.2 -- Tony Gwynn
-2.2 -- Ben Sheets
-5.4 -- Bill Hall

22.5 -- Joe Mauer
19.9 -- Justin Morneau
7.6 -- Alexi Casilla
7.5 -- Jason Kubel
2.9 -- Nick Punto

-0.4 -- DSPAN2
-0.6 -- Harris
-0.9 -- Monroe
-3.4 -- Adam Everett
-11.5 -- Mike Lamb

The Dude Abides

Banjo June 25, 2008, at 10:27 am 3 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) ,

At the recent convention, a certain member of the Nation asked Mr. Gleeman how much money he thought it would take to bribe the scoreboard operator at the Dome to play a small clip from the Big Lebowski, each time Jason Kubel came to bat. He estimated it would take approximately $54 dollars in unmarked ones to seal the deal. I say throw in one of these, and you just might have yourself a deal.

The dude abides.

Game 77: Minnesota at San Diego

ubelmann June 24, 2008, at 8:00 pm 306 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , , , ,

Slowey vs. Peavy

Going into the series, team leaders in VORP:

30.1 -- Adrian Gonzalez
18.5 -- Brian Giles
9.2 -- Jody Gerut
6.5 -- Edgar V Gonzalez
5,4 -- Kevin Kouzmanoff

22.4 -- Joe Mauer
19.8 -- Justin Morneau
7.7 -- Alexi Casilla
7.5 -- Jason Kubel
2.9 -- Nick Punto (this is not a typo)

I heard someone recently say that Adrian Gonzalez might be creeping into the NL MVP debate, but I don't see that. Adrian's had a good season so far, but Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones have just been out of their minds, and have something like a 20+ run lead in VORP so far.